原木期货日报 证监许可 【2011】1292号 2025年6月19日 曹剑兰 | 20019556 | | --- | | 期货和现货价格 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 6月18日 | 6月17日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | 原木2507 | 795.5 | 793.0 | 2.5 | 0.32% | | | 原木2509 | 795.0 | 802.0 | -7.0 | -0.87% | | | 原木2511 | 796.5 | 806.0 | -9.5 | -1.18% | | | 7-9价差 | 0.5 | -9.0 | 9.5 | | | | 9-11价差 | -1.5 | -4.0 | 2.5 | | | | 7-11价差 | -1.0 | -13.0 | 12.0 | | | | 07合约基差 | -45.5 | -53.0 | 7.5 | | | | 09合约基差 | -45.0 | -62.0 | 17.0 | | | | 11合约基差 | -46.5 | -66.0 | 19.5 | | 元/立方 ...

行业 聚烯烃日报 日期 2025 年 6 月 19 日 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 028-86630631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 研究员：李金（甲醇） 021-60635730 lijin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3015157 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03134307 能源化工研究团队 研究员：彭婧霖（聚烯烃） 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油燃料油） 研究员：任俊弛（PTA、MEG） 研究员：彭 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is the introduction of a third listing standard on the ChiNext board to support high-quality, unprofitable innovative enterprises in China [1][2] - The new listing standard aims to enhance the inclusiveness and adaptability of the capital market, facilitating a more favorable ecosystem for comprehensive innovation [1][3] - The third listing standard is a response to the long-standing demand for institutional breakthroughs, allowing unprofitable innovative companies to access capital markets more easily [2][3] Group 2 - The existing listing standards for general enterprises include three options based on profitability and revenue thresholds, with specific criteria for red-chip and special voting rights companies [2] - The introduction of the third standard is expected to address the financing challenges faced by high-quality innovative companies that have technology but lack profits [3] - This initiative is anticipated to shift the valuation logic in China's capital market from profit-oriented to growth-oriented, accelerating the monetization of technology for innovative enterprises [3]

Group 1 - The article provides an overview of the global soybean industry chain and the export patterns between China, the U.S., and South America, highlighting the flow of soybeans from fields to feedlots and the core logic of global agricultural trade [1] Group 2 - The downstream usage structure of soybeans indicates that approximately 77% is used for feed (meal), while 13-20% is utilized for oil (both edible and industrial), and only 2-5% is for direct food applications such as tofu and soy milk [5][6] Group 3 - Global soybean production is projected to reach a new high, with significant supply pressure due to drought conditions in South America affecting yields. The production figures from 2019 to 2024 show a trend of increasing output, with 2023 expected to produce 4.5 billion tons [7] Group 4 - The soybean crushing industry is highlighted, with China's annual crushing capacity exceeding 130 million tons, driven by the development of biodiesel which enhances the value of soybean oil [7]

闻乐 发自 凹非寺 量子位 | 公众号 QbitAI 好夸张…… 参赛大模型全军覆没，通通0分。 谢赛宁 等人出题，直接把o3、Gemini-2.5-pro、Claude-3.7、DeepSeek-R1一众模型全都难倒。 到底是什么让一众领先模型一败涂地？ LiveCodeBench Pro ：一个包含来自IOI、Codeforces和ICPC的竞赛级编程问题的 实时 基准测试。 题库还 每日更新 ，来预防LLMs"背题"，不得不说这太狠了（doge）。 谢赛宁虽然也参与了这项工作，但他谦虚地说自己只是个啦啦队成员。 此前有报道称，LLM编程现在已超越人类专家，但本次测试结果表明并非如此。 表现最佳的模型，在中等难度题上的一次通过率 仅53% ，难题通过率更是为0。 即使是最好的模型o4-mini-high，一旦工具调用被屏蔽，Elo也只有 2100 ，远低于真正大师级的2700传奇线。 | Model | Hard | Medium | Easy | Rating | Pct.% | AvgTok | AvgCost | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | ...

行业 聚烯烃日报 日期 2025 年 6 月 18 日 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 028-86630631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 研究员：李金（甲醇） 021-60635730 lijin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3015157 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03134307 能源化工研究团队 研究员：彭婧霖（聚烯烃） 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油燃料油） 研究员：任俊弛（PTA、MEG） 研究员：彭 ...

关税扰动下，如何布局医药板块 20250617 特朗普政府对药品关税的政策对中国医药板块的影响如何？ 特朗普政府对药品关税的政策对中国医药板块的影响较小。创新药出海主要有 两种模式：造船出海和借船出海。造船出海模式下，企业如百济神州，需要考 虑国内产能和关税比重。借船出海模式下，授权海外专利和 IP 给美国药企，这 种交易不涉及报关，因此不受关税影响。如果假设药品商业化落地，产能放在 国内而非美国，对估值影响也非常微小。例如和黄医药肿瘤产品报关价格按成 本价计算，占销售额比例很低，即使加 100%的关税，对估值影响也仅 1%~2%。因此，创新药整体受关税影响非常小。 创新药板块未来的发展趋势是什么？ 创新药板块未来发展主要依赖于 BD（业务发展）逻辑。今年（2025 年）下半 年创新药行情可能会分化：能够兑现 BD 的企业继续上涨，而无法兑现的则可 中成药院外零售表现良好：马应龙痔疮膏、云南白药气血康等销售数据 同比增速显著。关注受益于老龄化趋势及国际改革相关企业，如华润系 金实力、昆明制约集团。 生物制品行业稳定增长：疫苗、血制品等领域保持稳定增长态势，投资 者应继续关注这些公司的长期发展潜力，以现有业务基 ...

Core Insights - The article highlights the rapid evolution of the tea beverage industry in China, marking 2023 as a significant year for capital market entries by tea brands, with "沪上阿姨" being the fourth to list on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange [1] - The tea beverage sector has transitioned from a niche market to a vital component of shopping centers, reflecting changing consumer behaviors and preferences [1][2] - The industry is currently facing challenges such as declining repeat purchases, brand homogenization, and increased competition, prompting a reevaluation of the value tea brands bring to shopping centers [1][6] Development Phases of the Tea Beverage Industry (2015-2025) - **Phase 1 (2015-2017)**: Transition from street vendors to shopping centers, with brands like CoCo and蜜雪冰城 expanding into lower-tier cities [3] - **Phase 2 (2017-2019)**: Emergence of "new tea" brands like 喜茶 and 奈雪的茶, redefining the tea experience from convenience to social consumption [4] - **Phase 3 (2020-2021)**: Pandemic-driven rapid expansion, with brands competing for prime locations in shopping centers [5] - **Phase 4 (2022-2023)**: Market saturation and rational consumer behavior lead to a decline in repeat purchases and brand differentiation [6] - **Phase 5 (2024-2025)**: Reevaluation of brand value, focusing on brand uniqueness and consumer engagement [7] Consumer Behavior and Brand Evolution - The perception of tea beverages has shifted from mere products to symbols of personal expression and social interaction, driven by younger generations [10] - The rise of social media platforms has transformed tea consumption into a shareable experience, emphasizing aesthetics and brand storytelling [10][13] - Leading brands are diversifying their offerings beyond tea, creating a "brand universe" that includes food and lifestyle products [13][14] Operational Strategies and Market Dynamics - The tea beverage sector is experiencing a decline in average monthly sales per square meter, with a reported drop of approximately 22% from previous years [20] - The traditional strategy of prioritizing prime locations is shifting towards a focus on cost-effectiveness and brand synergy [21] - Shopping centers are encouraged to limit the number of tea brands to enhance differentiation and avoid market saturation [24] Future Outlook - The tea beverage industry is evolving into a more integrated part of the consumer experience, with brands exploring collaborations and immersive experiences [8][25] - The focus is shifting from merely attracting foot traffic to creating meaningful consumer interactions and enhancing overall shopping center appeal [24][25]

黄金当下的核心交易逻辑是什么？多头能否重振旗鼓？顺姐正在连线国信期货首席分析师顾冯达老师， 前瞻黄金交易机会 相关链接 ...

Group 1: Core Insights - Millennium Management is set to be valued at $14 billion as it discusses selling 10% to 15% of its equity in partnership with Petershill Partners [1] - The transaction aims to attract strategic investors, including major contributors to Millennium's funds, positioning it among the highest-valued hedge fund management companies globally [1] - Millennium operates over 320 investment teams under a strict risk framework, similar to other multi-strategy giants like Citadel and Point72 [1] Group 2: Valuation Logic - The $14 billion valuation has sparked a reevaluation of hedge fund valuation logic, traditionally based on management fees and performance incentives [2] - Millennium's revised fee structure, particularly the 1% minimum fee, stabilizes its revenue stream, supporting its high valuation [2] - Despite the high valuation, some private equity advisors argue that even with long-term capital locks, Millennium's management fee multiples are generally lower than those of established private equity firms [2] Group 3: Institutional Preparation - Founder Izzy Englander is preparing for a "post-Englander era" by institutionalizing the company, marking a shift from sole ownership to shared ownership among the core team [3] - The minority stake sale is part of a dual strategy to attract stable external investors and incentivize top talent through equity distribution among senior management [3] - Englander has already implemented measures to solidify the company's capital base and strengthen leadership by recruiting senior management from firms like Goldman Sachs [3] Group 4: Fee Structure and Strategic Partnerships - Millennium has introduced a new fee model requiring investors to pay a minimum fee of around 1% of assets or 20% of investment returns, aligning its revenue structure closer to stable management fees [5] - The company is also in discussions with BlackRock for potential strategic collaboration, which may include a small equity acquisition [5]