景气触底，结构分化——石油化工行业 2025 年度中期投 资策略 20250708 全球炼化行业的产能增长总体趋于放缓。在中国、美国和欧洲等主要市场中， 新建净产能已显著减少。未来几年内，中国、印度、中东及部分非洲国家将成 为主要新增产能来源。然而，从长远来看，全球炼化行业的增速仍将显著放缓。 这一趋势反映了对成品油需求增长预期的调整。目前，中国国内需求基本处于 峰值，而北美和欧洲等发达国家虽有增长，但增幅亦在减缓。此外，美国政府 的新法案可能提振传统能源需求，同时削弱新能源需求。 中国石化行业在节能降碳方面有哪些新要求？ 根据 2024-2025 年度节能降碳方案，中国新建和改扩建石化项目必须达到能 效标杆水平及环保绩效水平。同时，对于 200 万吨以下的小规模炼厂要求全部 淘汰。目前统计显示，大量炼厂仍在运行，需要逐步退出市场。此外，在乙烯 生产方面，45 万吨以下的小规模乙烯装置占比超过 20%，这些装置也面临淘 汰压力。这些措施预计将改善整个石化行业的结构，提高效率并减少环境影响。 未来几年中国石化项目投产计划如何？ 摘要 2024 年油价预计高位达 90 美元，随后回落至 70-80 美元区间，近期 ...

小牛电动 20250708 小牛电动二季度国内销量同比下降 35%，但电摩品类销量增长超 300%，短出行品类下降约 40%。618 促销活动显著提升线上渠道渗透 率，销售额同比增长近 100%。 二季度小牛电动平均售价（ASP）较一季度有所提升，但预计全年 ASP 将低于 2024 年。热销车型如 NT、MT 和 NLT 等零售价格均在 4,000 元以上，高端版本甚至达到八九千元。 小牛电动计划自 2025 年 9 月起陆续推出新国标车型，经销商将在七八 月份囤积老车型库存，以应对至 12 月 1 日的销售期。预计三季度销量 占比将因经销商提前备货而提升。 新国标车型在简易款上与现有车型差异不大，豪华款则采用铝合金或镁 合金替代塑件。首批新车以简易款为主，豪华款将稍后推出。预计三季 度增长 45%，四季度增长 18%。 小牛电动在高端两轮电动车市场中，凭借独特设计和科技优势，如长续 航、极速驾驶体验、彩屏仪表、导航投屏等，与其他品牌形成差异化竞 争。 Q&A 小牛电动公司在 2025 年第二季度的销量表现如何？ 小牛电动公司在 2025 年第二季度的整车销量达到约 35 万辆，同比增长 37%。其中，中国 ...

转自：前瞻产业研究院 1、深圳市高端医疗器械产业政策环境 ——深圳市高端医疗器械产业重点政策梳理 深圳作为中国改革开放的标杆城市，其政策红利的持续释放与创新迭代，使其成为全球投资者不可忽视 的战略高地。深圳从"政策红利"向"产业红利"转型的核心抓手是科技创新，始终以产业需求为导向，推 动产业结构向高端化、智能化跃迁。 作为全球和中国高端医疗器械产业的核心阵地，深圳的政策红利的精准性、系统性和前瞻性，使其成为 资本与技术汇聚的"超级磁场"。 近年来，深圳市出台多项鼓励性政策，不断加大对高端医疗器械产业的支持力度。2024年3月，深圳出 台《关于加快发展新质生产力进一步推进战略性新兴产业集群和未来产业高质量发展的实施方案》，指 出针对具有战略意义、处于风口期、资源投入大的高端医疗器械等7个产业集群，举全市之力集聚资 源，以超常规力度支持培育。 | 时间 | 政策名称 | 内容解读 | | --- | --- | --- | | 2025年4月 | 《深圳市全链条支持医药 和医疗器械发展若干措 | 聚焦高端医学影像、医用机器人、高性能植介入器械、体外诊断、生命监护 | | | | 与支持、人工智能辅助诊断系统等方向 ...

中金研究 1H25消费需求低位企稳，在整体消费信心偏弱背景下食饮消费不乏结构性亮点，满足年轻人悦己需求及高质价比产品表现突出。展望下半年，在国家 持续出台相关政策拉动内需、提振消费、鼓励生育的背景下，我们认为食饮板块需求有望边际企稳改善。分板块看大众食品基本面自3月起边际改善， 下半年基本面有望稳中改善，我们预计新消费标的延续相对高成长，辣味零食、健康饮品、气泡黄酒等新消费趋势景气度有望保持，带动板块估值抬 升，看好休闲零食、软饮料等子板块下半年表现。白酒受宏观经济及政策影响出现板块性估值回调，基本面处于筑底阶段，虽下半年白酒基本面或仍 有所承压，但估值已基本反映悲观预期，配置价值渐显。 点击小程序查看报告原文 Abstract 摘要 大众食品：预计新消费趋势延续，关注高景气赛道龙头。 展望2025年下半年，我们预计大众食品板块需求有望稳中向上，并预计具备新消费属性的子赛 道如休闲零食中魔芋等品类、软饮料中无糖茶、电解质水、椰子水等健康品类有望保持创新活力，通过持续抓取新消费趋势延续较高景气度。子板块方面 我们优先推荐软饮料、休闲零食，建议关注估值处于低位的乳制品、啤酒板块。长期看，行业结构性增长机会仍存，悦 ...

Core Insights - The high-end residential market in China, particularly in Shanghai, is experiencing significant growth, with a notable increase in transactions for properties priced over 30 million yuan [3][4][6] - The average daily sales of new homes priced over 30 million yuan in Shanghai reached 6 units, contributing to a total of 1,096 units sold in the first half of the year, which accounts for 59.4% of the total sales in 30 monitored cities [3][4] - The trend indicates that as property prices increase, the demand for high-end homes also rises, with properties priced between 5 million to 1 billion yuan seeing substantial year-on-year growth in sales [6][8] Market Performance - In the first half of the year, 32 properties priced over 100 million yuan were sold nationwide, with 19 being new homes and 13 second-hand homes [3] - The sales of new homes priced over 30 million yuan in Shanghai accounted for a significant portion of the market, with 1,096 units sold, while Beijing and Shenzhen followed with 214 and 199 units, respectively [4][6] - The overall transaction volume for properties priced over 5 million yuan has increased, with new homes and second-hand homes seeing year-on-year growth of 54.31% and 48.15%, respectively [6][8] Buyer Behavior - The decision-making process for buyers has shortened, with many making purchases within 3 to 5 days, reflecting a competitive market environment [6][7] - The clientele for properties priced over 7 million yuan tends to be affluent individuals, often referred to as "first-generation" entrepreneurs [8] - The increasing acceptance of high total price properties among buyers is driving up prices, with some new projects seeing prices exceed 30,000 yuan per square meter [7][8] Future Outlook - The high-end residential market is expected to maintain its momentum in the second half of the year, although performance may vary significantly between different projects based on location and product quality [9] - Core location properties with strong product offerings are likely to continue attracting buyers, while those with weaker attributes may experience slower sales [9]

Core Viewpoint - The China Securities High-end Equipment Sub-index (High-end Equipment Sub-index 50) has shown significant growth, reflecting the performance of listed companies in the aerospace and high-end equipment sectors [1][2] Group 1: Index Performance - The High-end Equipment Sub-index 50 increased by 0.87%, closing at 2645.67 points, with a trading volume of 20.941 billion yuan [1] - Over the past month, the index has risen by 5.93%, by 19.68% over the last three months, and by 7.66% year-to-date [1] Group 2: Index Composition - The index comprises 50 representative listed companies involved in aerospace equipment manufacturing, aerospace power and control systems, microwave radar, satellite navigation, optoelectronic infrared, communication equipment, electronic components, information security, and aerospace materials [1] - The top ten weighted companies in the index are: AVIC Shenyang Aircraft (8.29%), AVIC Optoelectronics (6.37%), Aero Engine Corporation of China (6.24%), AVIC Xi'an Aircraft (4.75%), AVIC Aircraft (3.62%), China Great Wall (3.51%), Aerospace Electronics (3.37%), Haige Communication (3.25%), AVIC Chengfei (3.08%), and Western Superconducting (2.89%) [1] Group 3: Market and Sector Breakdown - The market distribution of the index holdings shows that the Shanghai Stock Exchange accounts for 54.46%, the Shenzhen Stock Exchange for 45.21%, and the Beijing Stock Exchange for 0.34% [2] - In terms of industry composition, industrials represent 73.65%, materials 10.47%, communication services 8.15%, and information technology 7.74% [2] Group 4: Index Adjustment and Fund Tracking - The index samples are adjusted semi-annually, with adjustments occurring on the next trading day after the second Friday of June and December each year [2] - Public funds tracking the High-end Equipment Sub-index include: Harvest CSI High-end Equipment Sub-index 50 Link A, Harvest CSI High-end Equipment Sub-index 50 Link C, and Harvest CSI High-end Equipment Sub-index 50 ETF [2]

对于近期市场热议的中国创新药价值重估，黄一民认为，中国创新药领域的发展仍处于早期阶段，对外 授权的模式为这些企业打开了未来利润率的想象空间。同时，这种授权方式也为企业规避部分关税战所 带来的影响。不过他也强调，该领域投资具有较高的知识门槛，投资者可以采用ETF以把握投资机会。 21世纪经济报道记者 张伟泽 香港报道 7月8日，未来资产环球投资及Global X ETFs(香港)ETF研究分析师黄一民在媒体分享会上表示，中国高 端科技发展为投资者带来投资机会。未来资产看好中国创新科技股，尤其是能够在海外市场获利的中资 企业。 "我们看到的是中国高端科技和高端制造业的结构性崛起。在人才储备、完善产业链以及规模优势的支 撑下，中国正在实现制造业高端化转型。在此过程中，私企扮演越来越重要的角色，为投资者带来机 遇。"黄一民表示。 黄一民指出，过去两个季度，中国科技龙头企业的盈利状况持续改善。同时，相较于全球其他市场， MSCI中国指数11倍的前瞻市盈率也显现出估值优势。这些因素为中国科技企业股价反弹奠定了基础。 近期，在多重利好因素支撑下，中国资产表现坚挺。然而，鉴于宏观经济和全球贸易的不确定性犹存， 预计下半年市场 ...

Group 1: Market Overview - On July 8, the Hong Kong stock market saw a net inflow of 387 million HKD from Northbound trading, with a net sell of 238 million HKD from Shanghai Stock Connect and a net buy of 625 million HKD from Shenzhen Stock Connect [1] - The most bought stocks included the Tracker Fund of Hong Kong (02800), Meituan-W (03690), and China Construction Bank (00939) [1] - The most sold stocks included the Tracker Fund of Hong Kong (02800), Tencent (00700), and Hang Seng China Enterprises (02828) [1] Group 2: Stock Performance - The net inflow for Guotai Junan International (01788) was 1.94 billion HKD, attributed to the upcoming implementation of the stablecoin regulations in Hong Kong [7] - Alibaba-W (09988) and Meituan-W (03690) received net buys of 14.1 billion HKD and 11.31 billion HKD respectively, driven by intense competition in the food delivery sector [6] - China Construction Bank (00939) saw a net buy of 3.94 billion HKD, supported by positive performance in the banking sector [6] - Kuaishou-W (01024) had a net buy of 1.61 billion HKD, with positive developments in its AI strategy [7] Group 3: Notable Sell-offs - Xiaomi Group-W (01810) faced a net sell of 4.29 billion HKD due to concerns over order authenticity and delivery issues [8] - The Tracker Fund of Hong Kong (02800) and Hang Seng China Enterprises (02828) experienced net sells of 9.8 billion HKD and 5.44 billion HKD respectively, influenced by liquidity tightening in the market [8] - Tencent (00700) had a net sell of 6.21 billion HKD, reflecting broader market concerns [9]

Market Overview - The A-share pharmaceutical and biotechnology index rose by 3.64%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 2.10 percentage points and the ChiNext index by 2.75 percentage points, ranking 4th among 31 sub-industries [3] - The Hong Kong Hang Seng Healthcare Index increased by 5%, surpassing the Hang Seng Index by 6.75 percentage points [3] Key Insights - The National Medical Products Administration (NMPA) has released measures to support the innovation and development of high-end medical devices, including medical robots, advanced imaging equipment, AI medical devices, and new biological materials [4] - The policy is expected to accelerate the commercialization of innovative medical device products, with a comprehensive standard system gradually being established for design, production, and post-market regulation [4] - The policy also encourages high-end medical device companies to expand internationally, which is anticipated to promote standardization and internationalization within the industry [4] - Companies with strong R&D capabilities, leading product scales, and advanced international strategies are expected to benefit from these developments [4] Investment Strategy - The investment strategy for 2025 emphasizes structural selection of investment opportunities based on the payment perspective, considering the complex trends in population structure, policy framework, and economic environment [5] - The focus is on three payment channels within the pharmaceutical industry: hospital payments, out-of-pocket payments, and overseas payments, with particular attention to policy support for innovative drugs and devices, expanding public demand, and rising overseas cycles [6]

机械ETF跟踪的是细分机械指数，该指数由中证指数有限公司编制，主要从沪深市场中选取涉及工程机 械、工业自动化等领域的上市公司证券作为指数样本，以反映高端装备制造和智能制造相关上市公司证 券的整体表现。指数成分股聚焦具有行业代表性的机械制造企业，全面展现我国机械装备行业的市场走 势。 消息面上，7月3日，比亚迪储能与国网湖南综合能源服务有限公司签署合作框架协议，双方将聚焦集散 式储能电力领域展开合作。7月4日，安徽安瓦新能源全球首条GWh级新型固态电池生产线首批工程样 件成功下线，其第一代产品能量密度超300Wh/kg，并通过新国标安全测试。此外，7月7日工信部等六 部门发布绿色数据中心建设通知，要求数据中心采用高效节能设备，并积极利用储能技术，推动行业绿 色化发展。 （文章来源：每日经济新闻） 华龙证券指出，固态电池作为兼具高能量密度、高安全性的下一代电池技术，产业化进程加速。2025年 以来行业呈现三大特点：（1）政策驱动转向产业落地，宁德时代硫化物全固态电池中试线于5月投产， 能量密度达450Wh/kg；（2）设备与材料体系收敛，硫化物电解质和干法工艺成为共识，清研电子建成 国内首条0.1GWh干法电极产 ...