Monetary Policy & Central Bank Independence - Central bank independence is crucial for achieving stable economic outcomes, especially low and stable inflation [3][4] - Markets would be concerned if central bank independence were threatened [4] - The Fed leadership likely believes tariff effects won't cause prolonged high inflation, especially given the less tight labor market compared to 2022 [8] - The FOMC holds a range of views regarding the appropriateness of lowering interest rates while tariff effects are present [11] Economic Outlook & Data Analysis - Recent data suggests the labor market doesn't require significant rate cuts, and underlying inflation trends are moving towards 2% [5] - Goldman Sachs anticipates three rate cuts later this year, potentially starting in September, due to a relaxed view on inflation [5][6] - Consumer spending appears somewhat softer when adjusted for tariff-driven price increases [14] - Tariffs are expected to slow the pace of economic growth due to their function as taxes and the uncertainty they create [14] - While tariffs may lead to slower consumption and final demand growth, other factors like bank earnings, M&A, and IPO activity suggest increased business and consumer confidence [15] - The economy is not expected to enter recessionary territory [15] - Growth for the year is expected to be in the low 1% range, below the trend pace of around 2% [19]

JEROME POWELL CONSIDERING RESIGNING!?He resignsTrump puts someone who is on his side with cutsWe get the bajillion rate cutsThe dollar goes to 0The economy is not much better, if at allAnd our digital assets go to a trillion per coin? https://t.co/o4RePzvSSQ ...

Market Outlook - S&P 500 could reach 6,500, influenced by potential tariff impacts on GDP and earnings [2][4] - Tariff impacts could lead to a 1% GDP hit resulting in approximately a 4% earnings reduction [2] - Market's positive reaction to Delta's improved forecast indicates continued economic growth and consumer spending [5][6] Earnings Season Expectations - Earnings season is pivotal for assessing consumer and business spending, providing real-time data [8] - Financial sector and banking sector are expected to benefit, despite challenging year-over-year comparisons [10] - Regional banks are favored over larger banks due to price-to-book ratios and potential deregulation benefits [10] Investment Strategy - Robin Hood strategies have shifted towards GARP (Growth at a Reasonable Price), including tech, aerospace and defense, and midcaps [13] - Midcaps are considered undervalued, with long-term average price-to-earnings ratios at 19 times, currently at 16 times [13] - Potential rate cuts by the Federal Reserve could drive the S&P 500 to 6,500, but concerns remain regarding the labor market [11][15]

Monetary Policy Outlook - The market anticipates the Federal Reserve (Fed) to potentially cut rates, influenced by factors such as President Trump's urging and internal committee discussions [1][2] - The Fed committee holds diverse views, with some members favoring no rate cuts this year, while others, including the chair, foresee potential cuts [2] - Some Fed governors suggest current short-term rates are "pretty restrictive," implying room for rate reduction [3] - The Fed is in "wait and see mode" to assess the impact of tariffs on the economy before making a decision on rate cuts [2][4] - A 25 basis points rate cut in July is considered by some as a minor adjustment that could appease those advocating for lower rates [5] Interest Rate Expectations - The market anticipates the initial rate cut may occur in the fall, potentially starting in September [7] - The committee's "dots" indicate that 12 members believe two rate cuts would be appropriate [7] - Standard monetary policy rules suggest that current policy is restrictive [3][8] Fed Communication - Providing useful information on its intentions is valuable for any central bank [9] - The usefulness of the "dots" projections is debated, with some questioning their value [8][9]

Minutes from the Fed’s June policy meeting tease at a looming split over whether and when officials will resume rate cuts https://t.co/CcapSERJqQ ...

Welcome back. The battle is heating up for which of the Kevin may become the next Fed chair. The Wall Street Journal reporting that former Fed Governor Kevin Worsh and current Trump economic adviser Kevin Hasset have been duking it out in what they say is a very apprenticeesque competition to take over for Powell next year.And while one Kevin is regarded as a serious contender, the other is facing some criticism. For more, we're joined by Brian Schwarz, White House economic policy reporter. I it pains me to ...

India’s busy local-currency rupee bond market is poised to slow after the country’s central bank hinted room for further rate cuts could be limited https://t.co/lgIpzqTyo9 ...

REMINDER:🇺🇸 FED CHAIR JEROME POWELL WILL SPEAK TODAY AT 9:30 AM ET.WILL HE HINT ABOUT ANY RATE CUTS? https://t.co/tTlaFWQLi4 ...

And Ryan, I was struck. Goldman just tweaked their forecast for uh you know, their Fed forecast for for rate cuts. Now they think we could get one in September because the inflation numbers on from tariff have been less uh dramatic than they expected.So all of a sudden, you throw in there the possibility of a near-term rate cut. I have to imagine that would contribute to a positive outlook on equities. Kelly, you're right.Thanks for having me back and happy Monday, everybody, and congrats on number six. Uh, ...

🇺🇲FED CHAIR POWELL SAYS THE UPCOMING TRADE DEALS MAY ALLOW FOR RATE CUTS.RATE CUTS ARE COMING IN JULY 🚀 https://t.co/nlqbQQbMF9 ...