Group 1 - The core issue is the decline in China-Russia trade, with a 6.6% year-on-year decrease in early 2025, particularly in the automotive and energy sectors [1] - Russia has implemented a flexible export tax policy linked to the ruble, raising the export tax on fertilizers to 10%, which has not been communicated to China, indicating a shift in their trade relationship [3] - In Q1 2025, China imported 24.31 million tons of crude oil from Russia, a 14.7% year-on-year decrease, reflecting a change in strategic attitudes rather than just procurement issues [3] Group 2 - The automotive sector is facing challenges as Russia has closed its market to Chinese electric vehicles, forcing Chinese companies to pivot to Central Asian markets like Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan [5] - In April 2025, China imported 8.07 million tons of crude oil from Russia, accounting for 16.8% of total imports that month, a 12.9% year-on-year decrease, driven by both energy efficiency initiatives and Russia's export policy changes [5] - China is no longer offering concessions on coal imports from Russia, as domestic coal production is significant, and lowering tariffs could harm local coal companies [5] Group 3 - Despite visible cooperation in agriculture and technology, trade dynamics are shifting, with a 6.8% decline in China-Russia trade in Q1 2025, indicating a potential reduction in Russia's reliance on the Chinese market [7] - The changing trade relationship is characterized as a negotiation for rebalancing interests, with China needing to stabilize domestic demand and export routes while Russia aims to control inflation and stabilize the ruble through export policies [9] - The current state of affairs suggests a need for a long-term negotiation-based partnership between China and Russia, moving beyond previous informal agreements [9]

Group 1 - The core point of the news is that Fuling Co., Ltd. has seen significant trading activity, with a turnover rate exceeding 20%, leading to its appearance on the "Dragon and Tiger List" [1] - The Shenzhen Stock Connect seat was notably active, ranking first in buying with an amount of 15.6682 million yuan and third in selling with 15.1290 million yuan, indicating a typical long-short divergence in trading [1] - The buying side showed a diverse characteristic, with Dongfang Caifu Securities Lhasa Donghuan Road Second Branch following closely with a buying amount of 12.1286 million yuan, and the Xinda Securities Bengbu Longteng Road Branch making a notable appearance with a buying amount of 12.0984 million yuan, achieving a 100% increase probability in its previous appearances [1] Group 2 - The selling side exhibited a mix of institutional and retail forces, with Kaiyuan Securities Xi'an West Street Branch leading in selling with an amount of 34.9254 million yuan, maintaining a win rate of over 50% in its last 91 appearances [1] - Institutional proprietary seats showed a net selling amount of 15.9466 million yuan, indicating some institutional funds are choosing to exit [1] - The historical data indicates that the stock has appeared on the list 18 times in the last six months, reflecting sustained market attention [2]

每经编辑｜蒙锦涛 当房地产高增长落幕，家装行业正经历着从增量红利向存量博弈的转身。在这场没有硝烟的战争中，小品牌在生存压力下节节败退，而头部企业却在危机 中嗅到新机。 当管道渗漏、水质污染成为旧房翻新的最大痛点，市场正在无情淘汰投机者，却为坚守者打开新大门。根据沙利文（Frost & Sullivan）2025年5月发布的 权威调研，日丰获"中国家装管道第一品牌"称号，销额、销量（吨）、服务家庭数、营销网点数四个关键维度均位居2024年行业榜首。 市场地位声明 ==日丰 中国家装 道質 (按2024年销额、销量、服务家庭数与营销网点数计) 来源:弗若斯特沙利文(北京)咨询有限公司上海分公司,基于对 中国内地(不包含港澳台地区)家装管道市场的研究;按2024年销额、 销量(吨)、服务家庭数与截至2024年底营销网点数计;家装管道指 家庭装修时铺设的户内管道;于2025年5月完成调研。 SINCE 1961 =JII 2025年05月 FS-2025-MPC-373045 *本文件仅作为所载结论之市场研究报告中的核心要素展示,非宣传推广画面 "隐形冠军"的荣誉背后，恰是这场存量博弈的写照。在行业集体焦虑时，他们以 ...

在过去的几年来，特别是以美国为代表的一些国家，借助"国家安全"的幌子而设立了重重的贸易壁垒。他们不仅直接采取了一系列限制措施，还通过策动第 三国非法拘禁中国高科技企业的高管，展现了西方集团在遏制中国崛起上的恶劣行径和合作共谋的本质。这种策略明显暴露了他们对中国快速发展的恐惧。 当美西方的产品进入中国市场时，他们大力倡导自由贸易的理念。然而，当中国产品试图进入他们的国门时，他们却又毫不犹豫地施加贸易壁垒。这样的双 标行为时常引发人们的关注。最近，中国商务部宣布将自7月5日起，对来自欧盟的白兰地征收反倾销税，而相关国家则第一时间表达了对此的"不公平"看 法，一时间舆论纷纷。 当前中欧合作的关键问题，并非中国是否愿意合作，而在于欧洲在对华战略上的认知已发生根本性的转变。欧洲正以一种防御性的姿态重构与中国的经贸关 系，通过征收关税、施加技术标准等手段，系统性地限制中国电动汽车、光伏组件及5G设备进入其市场。这种贸易保护主义的升级，反映了欧洲产业界对 技术更新与市场竞争的深层焦虑。 更深层的矛盾在于，欧洲希望维持其既有的产业优势，同时在要求中国增加对欧投资和创造就业机会的同时，又不想让核心市场的空间被中国企业占据。这 ...

Group 1 - The U.S. has announced a 25% tariff on all Japanese products, causing immediate market reactions and highlighting the failure of previous negotiations between the two countries [1][3] - Japan's response includes a strong condemnation of the U.S. actions, stating it undermines trust between allies and threatening to take the matter to the WTO [5] - Japan's trade surplus with the U.S. accounts for over 60% of its total global surplus, indicating that key industries like automotive and electronics could face severe impacts from these tariffs [5] Group 2 - The U.S. trade policy appears to prioritize economic interests over geopolitical alliances, raising questions about the sustainability of the U.S.-Japan alliance [3][7] - The situation reflects a broader trend where economic negotiations are becoming a tool for testing the strength of transatlantic alliances, potentially undermining U.S. global leadership [7]

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 豆粕早报 2025-07-08 大越期货投资咨询部：王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询资格证号：Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 近期要闻 3 多空关注 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 ✸豆粕观点和策略 1.基本面：美豆震荡回落，美豆生长天气良好丰产预期压制盘面，美豆短期千点关口上方震 荡等待中美关税谈判后续和美国大豆产区生长天气进一步指引。国内豆粕震荡回落，美 豆带动和技术性震荡整理，6月进口大豆到港增多和现货价格弱势压制盘面反弹高度，短 期回归区间震荡格局。中性 2.基差：现货2790（华东），基差-147，贴水期货。偏空 3.库存：油厂豆粕库存82.24万吨，上周69.16万吨，环比增加18.91%，去年同期108.27万吨， 同比减少34.32%。偏多 4.盘面：价格在20日均线下方且方向向下 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 2025-07-08甲醇早报 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 多空关注 3 基本面数据 4 检修状况 甲醇2509： 1、基本面：港口方面，短期尚有部分内地货源流入套利，且本周进口到货集中，库存或有累积风险，另随着伊朗装置 逐步恢复，后续进口量回升预期下，短期业者信心不足，不过伊朗中止与联合国核监督机构合作，宏观面尚存支撑，短 期港口甲醇多空博弈下震荡为主。内地方面，上游甲醇企业库存不多，加之近期产区甲醇装置集中检修，供应端并无压 力，对行情有一定支撑。但同时当前产业链利润多集中在甲醇，多数下游亏损严重尤其是MTO，成本转嫁困难，另外销 区下游用户原料库存在高位，产区甲醇价格经过上周反弹后，贸易商追涨情绪谨慎，且场内供应并无缺口，多空交 ...

投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可[2015]84 号 商品日报 20250708 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可[2015]84 号 联系人 李婷、黄蕾、高慧、王工建、赵凯熙 电子邮箱 jytzzx@jyqh.com.cn 电话 021-68555105 主要品种观点 宏观：特朗普新关税引发避险情绪，国内股市缩量调整 海外方面，特朗普签署行政令，将"对等"关税生效日期从 7 月 9 日延至 8 月 1 日，并 正式致函 14 国通知大幅加税，日韩商品将被征收 25%关税，惩罚性措施不与此前汽车、钢 铝关税叠加，信函暗示仍留谈判空间，同时警告报复将遭对等回应。市场风险偏好显著回落， 美股下挫近 1%；10 年期美债利率回升至 4.38%；美元指数盘中最高升至 97.6，表现强势。 避险情绪推动金价 V 型反弹，铜价走弱收跌，油价收涨。关税博弈再度升温，市场敏感度上 升，短期关注日韩等被加征对象的应对，总体而言扰动幅度预计将远小于 4 月。 国内：经济基本面延续"低通胀，弱复苏"格局，产业优化政策主导市场，近期将公布 二季度经济数据以及召开关于经济主题的政治局会议。A 股缩量调整，两市成交额回落至 1.23 万亿，风格 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent tariff adjustments by the Trump administration reflect a continuation of a hardline trade policy while also indicating a tactical shift towards negotiating under pressure [1][3] Group 1: Tariff Adjustments - The U.S. has issued new tariffs targeting 14 countries, with Japan facing a 24% tariff and South Korea a 25% tariff, breaking the expectation of tariff exemptions for traditional allies [1] - The delay of the "reciprocal" tariff effective date to August 1 provides a 20-day buffer for trade negotiations [1] Group 2: Strategic Considerations - Japan and South Korea were chosen as initial targets due to their significant export volumes to the U.S., which can create immediate market impacts [1] - The strategy aims to send a message to other countries that no one is exempt from U.S. tariffs, enhancing America's psychological advantage in negotiations [1] Group 3: Characteristics of the Tariff Strategy - The tariff strategy includes three main characteristics: breaking the ally boundary by weaponizing trade, setting flexible negotiation periods to force concessions, and applying differentiated tax rates based on each country's economic structure [3] - This approach is described as a "carrot and stick" method, with the potential to reshape global trade dynamics as the August 1 deadline approaches [3]

本次公开课将探讨： ↓↓↓ 活动议程 13：30-14：00 签到 14：00-15：00 主题分享： 关税博弈：多维影响与战略前瞻 上海交通大学上海高级金融学院，金融学教授 15：00-15：30 Q&A 预 约 席 位 市值管理+供应链金融：对冲关税风险的双重利器 科技股估值重构：地缘风险定价与国产替代机遇 汇率对冲+数字人民币：破解关税杀伤力的双重引擎 行业轮动策略：内需驱动与政策红利下的防御性配置 债券市场对冲：利率互换与气候债券的合规套利 时间：7月12日（周六）下午 13:30 地址：北京市朝阳区东三环路1号环球金融中心 朱宁 教授 朱宁教授现任上海交通大学上海高级金融学院金融学教授。朱宁教授曾任清华大学讲席教授、美国加 州大学金融学终身教授、早稻田大学访问教授。2008-2010年度，朱宁教授还曾担任雷曼兄弟和野村 证券高管，其所带领的团队在多项机构投资者评选中名列前茅。 朱宁教授的研究领域包括行为金融学、中国宏观经济与金融市场，卖空、破产与重组、公司财务与收 购兼并。迄今已在Review of Financial Studies，Journal of Finance，Management Sc ...