Group 1 - The Shenzhen real estate market showed resilience in the first half of the year, with new and second-hand home transactions exceeding 65,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 53.2% [1] - The supply of new homes in Shenzhen decreased significantly, with 17,232 new homes supplied in the first half of 2025, down 44.5% year-on-year and 47.7% month-on-month [1] - The marketing heads of local real estate companies indicated that the hot sales of some new projects were due to a "small step, quick run" approach to launching, controlling the supply to observe market conditions [1] Group 2 - In June, the new home online signing volume in Shenzhen exceeded 3,000 units, indicating a relatively stable market despite the traditional "off-season" [2] - The proportion of new homes sold as existing homes increased significantly to 42%, reflecting a clear trend towards selling completed properties [2] - The second-hand residential transactions in Shenzhen reached 29,231 units in the first half of the year, a year-on-year increase of 36.6% [2] Group 3 - The demand for second-hand homes in Shenzhen has shown fluctuations but remains at a relatively high level [3] - The overall demand for both new and second-hand homes is expected to remain stable year-on-year, driven by high-value new homes and strong demand from first-time buyers [3] - The market may continue to experience price pressure due to a large number of listings and competition from high-value new homes, leading to a potential decline in transaction prices in the second half of the year [3]

市场主流观点汇总 2025/7/1 报告说明 关 迪 此报告，意在客观反映行业内期货公司、证券公司对大宗商品各品种的 研究观点，追踪热点品种，分析市场投资情绪，总结投资驱动逻辑等。 本报告不构成个人投资建议，仅供公司内部使用，仅作参考之用。 报告中策略观点和投资逻辑是基于所采纳的机构当周公开发布的研究报 告，对于各期货品种的多空观点、交易逻辑进行整理加工汇总而成，收 盘价数据选择上周五，周度涨跌为上周五较前一周五收盘价变动幅度。 期货从业资格证号：F3036000 投资咨询从业资格证号：Z0016090 黄 恬 期货从业资格证号：F03100883 投资咨询从业资格证号：Z0021089 | 【行情数据】 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 资产类别 | 细分品种 | 收盘价 | | 周度涨跌情况 | | | 数据时点 | | 2025/6/27 | | 2025/6/23 | 至 2025/6/27 | | | 焦炭 | 1421.50 | 焦炭 | | 2.67% | | | 铜 | 79920.00 | 铜 | | 2.47% | | ...

昨日，豫园股份披露拟发行40亿元公司债券，用于调整债务结构、偿还到期债务以及补充流动资金。大手笔融资背后，公司的债务压力巨大，现金流不足以 覆盖短期借款、一年内到期的非流动负债。 2024年，豫园股份录得营收、净利双双大降的成绩单，其中归母净利润骤降超九成，已经连续三年下滑，而扣非净利润已经连续两年亏损，且有所加剧，公 司收入重心产业运营、物业开发与销售业务均遭受重挫，后者计提资产减值准备直接对利润产生不利影响。 需要指出的是，公司2024年以来的人事调整频繁，原因包括工作调整、个人职业发展、以及到龄退休等，短短一年时间，管理层如此变动难免会影响投资者 对公司的看法。 要融资40亿，去年终止定增 6月30日，复星旗下公司豫园股份披露债券发行预案，拟公开发行不超过40亿元的固定利率债券，期限不超过7年（含7年），可为单一期限品种，也可为多 种期限的混合品种，票面利率尚未确定。 豫园股份本次拟融资40亿元，用途包括但不限于偿还公司到期债务及补充流动资金。另外，公司承诺在出现预计不能按期偿付本次债券本息或者到期未能按 期偿付债券本息时，将采取相应偿债保障措施，包括但不限于不向股东分配利润；暂缓重大对外投资、收购兼并 ...

PX成本支撑偏弱，关注TA高加工费供应压力增大可能 通惠期货研发部 李英杰 从业编号：F03115367 投资咨询：Z0019145 手机：18516056442 liyingjie@thqh.com.cn www.thqh.com.cn 一、日度市场总结 1. PTA&PX 06月30日，PX 主力合约收6796.0元/吨，较前一交易日收涨0.65%，基差为 40.0元/吨。PTA 主力合约收4798.0元/吨，较前一交易日收涨0.42%，基差 为222.0元/吨。 成本端，06月30日，布油主力合约收盘66.34美元/桶。WTI收65.07美元/ 桶。需求端，06月30日，轻纺城成交总量为663.0万米，15 日平均成交为 620.33万米。 PX：成本端受国际原油价格维持窄幅震荡趋势，能提供的支撑相对有限。 亚洲地区新增装置投产预期可能带来供应压力，叠加下游PTA加工费修复空 间有限或抑制原料采购积极性，预计PX价格将维持震荡格局。 PTA：PTA下游聚酯开工率高位，终端纺织成交回暖，需求端有所反弹。基 差走强反映现货偏紧，PX成本支撑边际减弱，PTA加工费高位下开工负荷或 继续维持，关注供应端恢复压力 ...

Core Viewpoint - The overall performance of bank stocks has outpaced the market in 2025, with Goldman Sachs (GS.N) and JPMorgan Chase (JPM.N) showing significant gains compared to the S&P 500 index [2][3] Group 1: Bank Performance - Goldman Sachs' stock price has increased by 23% year-to-date, while JPMorgan Chase has risen by 22%, compared to a 5.1% increase in the S&P 500 index [2] - Following the Federal Reserve's "health check" report on the banking system, bank stocks continued to perform strongly, with Goldman Sachs being the largest gainer among the top six U.S. banks, rising 2.5% on Monday [3] - The financial sector ETF, Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLF), also rose by 0.8%, with a year-to-date increase of 8.4% [6] Group 2: Stress Test Results - The Federal Reserve's stress test results indicated that the U.S. banking system remains robust even under simulated recession conditions, with strong pre-provision net revenue (PPNR) and reduced counterparty losses [2] - Analysts noted that Goldman Sachs, Wells Fargo (WFC.N), and M&T Bank (MTB.N) are expected to see a more significant decline in their future capital buffers compared to other banks, potentially allowing for more capital to be released for lending, stock buybacks, or dividends [2][3] - The average common equity tier 1 capital ratio for the 16 largest banks is projected to decline by 100 basis points, with Goldman Sachs experiencing a drop of 240 basis points, the largest among the banks covered by Jefferies [3] Group 3: Analyst Insights - Analysts have indicated that while capital requirements are expected to decrease, it may not lead to immediate large-scale shareholder returns, as banks are likely to observe the new norms before making significant decisions [6] - Some banks may adjust their dividend increases or seek regulatory reviews, which could impact the final capital buffer requirements [5]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the increasing pressure on banks to attract deposits as the end of the quarter approaches, leading to a significant rise in interest rates offered to depositors, with some rates exceeding industry norms [2][4][6]. Group 1: Deposit Pressure and Interest Rates - Banks are facing heightened pressure to meet deposit targets, especially at the end of the month and quarter, resulting in offers of interest rates as high as "万12" (12 yuan for every 10,000 yuan) and even "万17" [2][4][5]. - The typical interest rates offered by banks have doubled compared to previous levels, which were around "万5" to "万8" [2][4]. - Employees are reportedly using personal funds to supplement interest rates to meet these targets, indicating a trend of "hand-made interest" practices [2][5][8]. Group 2: Declining Deposit Attractiveness - The attractiveness of bank deposits has decreased due to continuous interest rate cuts, leading many customers to prefer investment products over traditional savings [6][8]. - Recent rounds of interest rate reductions have seen banks collectively offering rates in the "1" range, further diminishing the appeal of deposits [6][8]. Group 3: Regulatory Environment - Regulatory bodies have been tightening controls on banks' liability cost management, particularly regarding practices like "hand-made interest," which are being scrutinized [8]. - Banks are required to comply with regulations that limit high-interest deposit solicitation, leading to creative but potentially non-compliant methods of attracting deposits [2][8].

Group 1 - The current inflation situation in the Eurozone faces multiple downward pressures, with a warning that the recent rapid rise of the euro against the dollar and energy market volatility due to Middle Eastern geopolitical conflicts may cause inflation rates to deviate from the 2% target [1] - The probability of inflation remaining below the target level has exceeded the upside risks, according to the Lithuanian central bank governor [1] - Despite forecasts indicating that inflation will stabilize at 2% by 2027, current price trends remain uncertain, influenced by geopolitical risks and aggressive trade protectionism policies from the Trump administration [1] Group 2 - The likelihood of maintaining interest rates unchanged in the July meeting is the most probable policy option, aligning with market expectations [3] - Since the start of the current easing cycle in June 2024, the European Central Bank has consecutively lowered the benchmark interest rate eight times, with expectations for further rate cuts in September [3] - The average tariff rate on European goods exported to the U.S. is currently 10%, and the impact of existing trade barriers on the real economy has not yet fully manifested [3]

数据来源：Wind、SMM、广发期货研究所。请仔细阅读报告尾端免费声明 免费声明 期现日报 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 【2011】 2025年7月1日 星期二 Z0015979 价格及基差 | | 现值 | 前值 | 日涨跌 | 日涨跌幅 | 单位 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SMM 1#电解铜 | 79990 | 80125 | -135.00 | -0.17% | 元/吨 | | SMM 1#电解铜升贴水 | 130 | 110 | +20.00 | - | 元/吨 | | SMM 广东1#电解铜 | 79940 | 80070 | -130.00 | -0.16% | 元/吨 | | SMM 广东1#电解铜升贴水 | 65 | તેર | -30.00 | - | 元/吨 | | SMM湿法铜 | 79915 | 80045 | -130.00 | -0.16% | 元/吨 | | SMM湿法铜升贴水 | રક | 30 | +25.00 | - | 元/吨 | | 精废价差 | 2131 | 1965 | +166.39 | 8.47% | 元 ...

6月28日，博瑞生物医药（苏州）股份有限公司发布公告称，公司及财务总监邹元来于近日收到中国证 券监督管理委员会江苏监管局下达的《江苏证监局关于对博瑞生物医药（苏州）股份有限公司、邹元来 采取出具警示函措施的决定》。 因募资管理使用违规，未督促公司规范使用募资，保证公司及时披露相关信息，江苏证监局对博瑞医药 及邹元来出具警示函，并记入证券期货市场诚信档案。 多次被采取监管措施 据《警示函》，2019年11月27日，博瑞医药召开董事会审议通过了《关于使用暂时闲置募集资金进行现 金管理的议案》，同意公司使用不超过人民币3.8亿元的暂时闲置募集资金进行现金管理，使用期限不 超过12个月，自董事会审议通过之日起12个月内有效。2020年11月26日，上述董事会决议期限届满，博 瑞医药未及时赎回闲置募集资金现金管理的产品。 博瑞医药是一家创新型制药企业，产品管线覆盖代谢、肿瘤、呼吸、免疫抑制、抗病毒真菌等治疗领 域。自2022年以来，博瑞医药归母净利润已经连续3年出现下滑。2022年-2024年归母净利润分别为2.40 亿元、2.03亿元、1.89亿元，分别同比下滑1.77%、15.51%、6.57%。 2025年第一季 ...

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-07-01 现实及预期供给压力依旧不减 重要数据 现货方面：LME锌现货升水为-0.24 美元/吨。SMM上海锌现货价较前一交易日下跌80元/吨至22490元/吨，SMM上 海锌现货升贴水较前一交易日下跌35元/吨至80元/吨，SMM广东锌现货价较前一交易日下跌60元/吨至22490元/吨。 SMM广东锌现货升贴水较前一交易日下跌15元/吨至80元/吨，SMM天津锌现货价较前一交易日下跌70元/吨至 22410元/吨。SMM天津锌现货升贴水较前一交易日下跌25元/吨至0元/吨。 期货方面：2025-06-30沪锌主力合约开于22330元/吨，收于22495元/吨，较前一交易日上涨70元/吨，全天交易日成 交160924手，较前一交易日减少64900手，全天交易日持仓140186手，较前一交易日减少2242手，日内价格震荡， 最高点达到22530元/吨，最低点达到22330元/吨。 库存方面：截至2025-06-30，SMM七地锌锭库存总量为8.06万吨，较上周同期增加0.28万吨。截止2025-06-30，LME 锌库存为117475吨，较上一交易日减少1750吨。 市场分 ...