Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve official Collins emphasizes that adopting cautious and patient policy measures is appropriate given the current economic conditions [1] Economic Conditions - The overall economy remains robust, with the unemployment rate at a low level [1] - Early signs of price increases triggered by tariffs have already emerged [1]

华盛顿6月24日电(记者 陈孟统)鲍威尔24日就半年度货币政策报告出席国会听证会表示，美联储仍将"先 观察更多经济走势，再考虑是否调整政策"。 现年72岁的鲍威尔由特朗普在第一个总统任期内提名担任美联储主席，并于2018年2月接替耶伦掌舵美 联储。2021年，鲍威尔获得时任总统拜登提名，连任美联储主席一职。他的任期将于2026年5月结束。 (完) 【编辑:张令旗】 对于是否降息，鲍威尔表示，联邦基金利率的实际走向将取决于美国经济的发展路径，而这具有高度不 确定性。"就目前而言，委员会中有明显多数认为，在今年晚些时候降息将是合适的，但同时也存在相 当显著的少数持不同意见。" 当天的听证会上，关税对美国消费者影响的问题也被反复提及。鲍威尔表示，今年的关税上调仍可能推 高物价，并抑制经济活动。"我们预期，由关税带来的一部分价格上涨会传导至消费者身上。但还不知 道这种影响是否会持续，也不知道其规模会有多大。所以，目前我们的态度是观察和等待，直到有更清 晰的判断为止。" 在听证会上，多位共和党议员向鲍威尔施压，质疑美联储的货币政策决策太慢。 鲍威尔说，在余下的任期中，他唯一的心愿就是让美国经济保持强劲，通胀得到遏制，劳 ...

美联储内部在政策路径上同样存在分歧。上周全票通过维持短期基准利率不变的决议，掩盖不了成员间的 意见不合。部分官员认为关税对物价影响有限，主张尽快恢复降息，担心关税对企业利润率的冲击大于价 格，进而拖累经济并推高失业风险。其中，特朗普任命的沃勒和鲍曼近日暗示可能支持 7 月底会议降息， 预计关税仅会造成一次性小幅涨价。然而，更多官员持谨慎态度，希望获取更多数据验证，他们更担忧若 鲍威尔在回答议员质询时，虽未彻底排除下月降息的可能性，但也未释放出强烈的降息信号。他暗示，美 联储官员更倾向于至少等待至 9 月会议，以便观察关税引发的价格上涨是否比预期更为温和，再决定是否 重启降息周期。在众议院金融服务委员会听证会上，鲍威尔称："如果通胀压力确实保持受控，我们将更 早而非更晚降息，但我不愿具体指向某次议息会议。" 这番言论凸显了美联储决策层在关税政策不确定性 下的谨慎态度。 事实上，美联储官员普遍预计，关税将导致今夏物价增速回升，打破过去两年虽不均衡但广泛存在的通胀 放缓趋势。鲍威尔坦言："我们预计 (通胀) 会在夏季抬头，若未出现这种情况，我们将从中汲取信息。" 当 前，美联储正全力评估特朗普 4 月 2 日 "解 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's Barr stated that tariffs could potentially lead to economic slowdown and increased unemployment, indicating that monetary policy is currently in a favorable position while the Fed observes economic developments [1] Group 1 - Tariffs may contribute to economic slowdown [1] - Potential rise in unemployment due to tariffs [1] - Federal Reserve is in a favorable position regarding monetary policy [1]

美联储巴尔：由于关税，通胀率将上升。美国经济基础稳固，失业率低且稳定，通胀仍在持续回落。 ...

美联储威廉姆斯：预计到今年年底失业率将升至约4.5%。关税将推动今年通胀率升至3%。 ...

北京市税务局12366纳税缴费服务热线回应纳税人咨询称，大家退休后按月领取的基本养老金（也就是大 家所说的退休金），无需缴纳个人所得税。与基本养老金不同，个人养老金是政府政策支持、个人自愿、 市场化运营的补充养老保险，每年缴存上限为12000元，可按规定享受税收优惠：缴存时，可从工资等收 入中扣除，无需缴纳个人所得税；领取时，只需按照最低档3%税率缴税。 此前，有网友咨询，领过失业保险金，基本养老保险个人账户里的钱会变少吗？对此，人力资源社会保障 部相关负责人表示，按照《中华人民共和国社会保险法》规定，养老保险与失业保险等其他社会保险基金 分别建账、分账核算。失业保险金从失业保险基金中列支，领取失业保险金不会导致养老保险个人账户储 存额减少。 劳动者在职期间参加失业保险的，失业后符合有关条件，可以领取失业保险金。具体来说： 申领条件及申领标准 根据有关文件规定，失业人员在领取失业保险金期间，可以个人身份缴纳基本养老保险费，未出现依法应 当停止领取失业保险金情形的，经办机构不得停发失业保险待遇。 也就是说，领取失业保险金并不影响失业人员以个人身份继续缴纳养老保险费，同时，也不会因为以个人 身份参加了养老保险而停 ...

美联储主席鲍威尔：（被问及2024年9月降息50个基点时）这是由于失业率的变动。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The current labor market appears strong but conceals significant issues, particularly the rise of "functional unemployment" among American workers [1][2]. Group 1: Employment Statistics - The U.S. unemployment rate remains low at 4.2%, with 139,000 jobs added in May, indicating a relatively healthy job market [1]. - Approximately 24.3% of Americans are classified as "functionally unemployed," an increase from 22.3% two years ago [2]. Group 2: Functional Unemployment - "Functional unemployment" includes individuals who are unemployed but have stopped looking for work, as well as those employed but earning less than $25,000 annually [2]. - The rise in functional unemployment suggests that many workers are struggling to make ends meet, highlighting a growing economic opportunity gap [2][3]. Group 3: Worker Sentiment - Many workers express pessimism about the economy, as indicated by a recent report showing that the confidence index for entry-level employees has reached a historical low [2]. - Concerns about tariffs and the impact of artificial intelligence on future job prospects contribute to this sentiment [2].

Core Viewpoint - The current monetary policy is in a state of absolute uncertainty, with historical data offering little reference value due to unprecedented external shocks such as tariffs and geopolitical tensions [1][20]. Monetary Policy and Tariff Impact - Recent inflation has decreased compared to earlier in the year, with housing and non-housing service inflation aligning with the 2% target, while goods inflation has slightly increased [3][10]. - The impact of tariffs on consumer prices is uncertain and will take time to materialize, as many retailers are selling inventory purchased before tariffs were enacted [3][10]. - The Federal Reserve's current monetary policy is deemed appropriate, but there is a need to monitor the scale and timing of tariff impacts on inflation [3][9]. Economic Forecasts - The Fed's economic forecasts for 2025 show a decline in growth to 1.4% (down from previous estimates of 1.7% and 2.1%), a slight increase in unemployment to 4.5%, and a rise in PCE inflation to 3.0% [1][8]. - The uncertainty surrounding economic predictions remains high, with the Fed adjusting forecasts based on evolving tariff situations and economic indicators [4][10]. Labor Market and Employment - The current unemployment rate is at 4.2%, with economic growth projected between 1.5% and 2.0%, indicating a stable labor market despite some cooling [5][14]. - The Fed is closely monitoring the labor market, as a healthy job market is crucial for maintaining economic stability [5][14]. Future Policy Directions - The Fed is cautious about making predictions regarding interest rate changes, emphasizing the need for more data to inform decisions on potential rate cuts or adjustments [6][11]. - There is a consensus among Fed members that the current policy rate is appropriate, but individual predictions on future rate paths vary significantly due to high uncertainty [7][11]. Geopolitical and Economic Context - The geopolitical landscape, including conflicts in the Middle East and trade tensions, is contributing to economic uncertainty and potential inflationary pressures [13][14]. - The Fed acknowledges the complexities introduced by AI and other technological advancements, which could either enhance productivity or disrupt job markets [13][14]. Conclusion - The Fed's current stance reflects a careful balancing act between maintaining price stability and supporting employment, with a focus on data-driven decision-making in an environment of significant uncertainty [16][19].