上周五，特朗普恢复与欧盟为期90天的贸易谈判窗口，此前冯德莱恩主动与之联系。此前特朗普称与欧 盟的讨论毫无进展，建议从6月1日起对欧盟直接征收50%的关税；欧盟委员会拒绝就美国贸易关税发表 评论，直到欧盟贸易专员与美国贸易代表通电话。 美国20年期国债上周三拍卖遇冷，使美国政府借新债还旧债的难度陡然增加。 美国财政部周三标售20年期国债，得标利率为5.047%，远高于市场预期和过去六次拍卖平均值，代表 投资者需要更高报酬才愿意承接美债。惨淡的标售结果公布后，20年期美债收益率冲上5.127%。 周一（5月26日）亚洲时段，纸白银遭遇抛售，由于特朗普推迟对欧盟征收关税后，避险需求缓解，纸 白银走势承压受挫，最新纸白银价格报7.712元/克，跌幅0.12%。 【要闻速递】 当地时间周日，美国总统特朗普与欧盟委员会主席冯德莱恩通话后宣布，他将把欧盟面临50%关税的最 后期限延长至7月9日。特朗普周日返回华盛顿途中告诉记者："我们进行了一次非常愉快的通话，我同 意推迟期限。" 根据无党派分析师，特朗普的税改提案将使美国债务增加3万亿到5万亿美元。 【纸白银技术分析】 纸白银延续前周触底回升之力，强势反弹拉升收涨，重回 ...

随着全球市场对特朗普政府经济政策走向的关注升温，白宫经济顾问委员会主席史蒂芬·米兰（Stephen Miran）近日在接受媒体采访时，明确表示 美国依然坚 持"强势美元"政策 ，驳斥了外界关于酝酿"弱美元"转向或秘密货币协议的猜测，他 明确否认美国在贸易谈判中存在秘密货币协议 。 这一表态做出后，美元指数应声上涨，日内涨幅达0.5%，报100.1216， 随后小幅回落。 他三连否认道： 没有、没有、绝对没有（there is none there. There, you know, there, there, there is none）。 面对主持人关于日韩等国放任本币升值的追问，米兰继续否认。 他强调美国依然坚持"强势美元"政策 ，财政部长贝森特（Scott Bessent）才是对美元政策拥 有权威的人。 尽管Miran和财政部多次否认，市场仍对可能存在的货币干预计划保持高度警惕， 部分原因是特朗普长期以来对强势美元的批评立场。 此外，米兰不仅对当前的汇率政策进行了澄清，也回应了外界对全面关税、经济赤字以及潜在衰退的担忧，全面阐述了特朗普政府的经济战略思路。 "海湖庄园协议操刀人"的标签源于米兰去年撰写的 ...

德银警告，美国财政风险持续下，美债能撑住，美元撑不住。 因此，投资者对美债兴趣减弱，30年期和20年期美债收益率双双突破5%，本应更具吸引力，但最新20年期国债的拍卖结果却表现不佳，显示海外资金正 在悄然撤离。美债未来可能需要美国本土机构来接盘。 据追风交易台消息，5月21日，德银发布研报指出，美元当前面临的最大威胁，可能不是别的，而是美国政府自身的财政状况。目前美国财政"不确定性指 数"飙到历史新高，源头是税改、赤字争议不断。 即使美国机构接手美债，也无法抵消外资撤出对美元的打击。因为本土机构没有那么多海外资产可以"卖了换美元"来对冲这个空缺，外汇流出是实打实 的。 外资撤离，美债或稳，汇率难保 德银指出，美国"财政政策不确定性指数"已飙升至历史新高，主要源于围绕税改、财政赤字与长期预算前景的持续争议。而更糟的是，在经济状况并不差 的背景下，美国的财政赤字却异常巨大、且难以持续。 按照过去几十年的规律，财政赤字的规模应该和失业率高度相关，失业高、政府才多花钱救市，但现在的失业率这么低，照理说预算应该接近平衡才对， 结果赤字反而还在加速膨胀。 德银表示，财政疑云下，投资者对美债兴趣正在减弱。美债收益率持续上涨 ...

Group 1 - Trump engaged in a heated debate with South African President Ramaphosa regarding claims of "white genocide" in South Africa, emphasizing the need for listening to South African voices [1] - The U.S. Department of Defense confirmed the acceptance of a Boeing 747 from Qatar for use as "Air Force One," ensuring compliance with federal regulations [1] - Trump is seriously considering the public listing of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, planning discussions with key financial officials [1] - The House Rules Committee approved Trump's comprehensive tax reform bill, which has now passed the House and will be submitted to the Senate [1] Group 2 - Trump's business empire faces a potential financial crisis due to a $115 million mortgage on Trump Tower, which is due in 46 days, raising concerns about his financial status and the impact of politics on it [2] - A "Trump Coin Dinner" is scheduled, inviting the top 220 holders of "Trump Coins," with the top 25 having a chance to visit the White House [2] - Trump commented on a shooting incident involving Israeli embassy staff in Washington, attributing it to anti-Semitism and calling for an end to hate and radicalism in the U.S. [2] Group 3 - The White House removed the official text record of Trump's speeches from its website, opting to provide video recordings instead to offer a more comprehensive impression of his addresses [3]

美国众议院已有足够票数通过特朗普税改法案，投票仍在继续。 ...

Group 1: US Dollar - The US House of Representatives is set to vote on Trump's tax reform bill [2] - US Commerce Secretary Ross expressed the desire to reach trade agreements with "most" major partners before the expiration of tariff suspensions this summer [2] - National Economic Council Director Hassett stated that if a 3% growth is achieved, Trump's tax plan could balance the budget, predicting economic growth to exceed 3% [2] - A Reuters survey indicated that all 41 economists believe Trump's policies have negatively impacted the US economy, with 23 stating the impact is significant; the US economy is expected to grow by 1.4% in 2025 and 1.5% in 2026, consistent with April's survey [2] Group 2: Non-US Major Currencies - Japanese central bank board member Noguchi stated that there is no need for significant adjustments to the existing balance sheet reduction plan, with intervention only necessary in case of "serious disruptions" in the bond market [3] - The US Treasury confirmed that the current USD/JPY exchange rate reflects fundamental conditions, with no discussions on exchange rate levels [3] - A Reuters survey revealed that two-thirds of Japanese companies want the Bank of Japan to pause interest rate hikes due to Trump's tariff measures [3] - The German Economic Expert Council downgraded its 2025 economic growth forecast for Germany from 0.4% to 0.0% [3] - European Central Bank Vice President de Guindos noted that Eurozone bond yields have decoupled from the US, with the interest rate differential remaining manageable; to prevent inflation from falling below 2%, rates may need to drop below the neutral rate of 1.5%-2% [3] Group 3: Other Developments - The Thai Commerce Minister expressed a desire for a weaker Thai Baht [4] - Bank of America recommended a bullish stance on the Euro against the Mexican Peso, stating that the Peso is overvalued [4] - The Bank of Indonesia cut its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points, lowering the 7-day reverse repo rate to 5.5%, in line with market expectations [4]

美国众议院开启关于特朗普税改法案的辩论，随后将对该法案的通过进行投票。 ...

2025年5月22日星期四 ➢ 特朗普税改案表决在即；长期美债 重挫。A股延续上攻态势。上证指数 收涨0.21%报3387.57点，深证成指涨 0.44%，创业板指涨0.83%。贵金属和 电池板块涨幅居前，创新药板块震 荡走强。港股高开，午后涨幅收窄。 香港恒生指数收盘涨 0.62% 报 23827.78点；恒生科技指数涨0.51%， 恒生国企指数涨0.84%。贵金属和电 池板块表现强势。大市成交额扩大 至2163亿港元。外盘方面，欧洲三 大股指收盘涨跌不一。美国三大股 指全线收跌，道指跌1.91%，标普500 指数跌1.61%报5844.61点，纳指跌 1.41%。特朗普减税案造成的财政影 响引发长期美债重挫，众议院可能 很快表决该法案。上海发布提振消 费专项行动方案。 14,000 16,000 18,000 20,000 22,000 24,000 26,000 21/5/2024 21/6/2024 21/7/2024 21/8/2024 21/9/2024 21/10/2024 21/11/2024 21/12/2024 21/1/2025 21/2/2025 21/3/2025 21/4/2025 ...

智通财经5月22日电， 经过马拉松式的谈判，美国众议院共和党将于周四黎明前对特朗普税改法案进行 投票。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The White House officials indicate that Trump is very supportive of the revised Republican tax reform bill [1] Group 1 - The revised tax reform bill is expected to have significant implications for the economy and various industries [1] - Trump's support may influence the bill's passage and implementation, potentially affecting market sentiment [1]