因此，印度的突然反击可谓让美国措手不及，甚至让特朗普陷入两难境地。从7月4日起，白宫开始向各国发函，表明美国不再考虑与各国单独谈判，而是 选择通过"一刀切"的方式直接设定关税。这一变动令印度不满，给美国带来了意外的挑战。如果美印协议未能在"最后期限"之前达成，那么印度将面临美 国征收26%关税的局面，这对新德里来说无疑是不可接受的，因为美印之间存在巨大的贸易逆差。根据去年的数据，印度对美国的出口总额为874亿美 元，而美国对印度的出口仅为418亿美元，差距达到457亿美元。如果美国决定在这一时刻加重对印度的关税压力，印度必定会采取强烈反击。 事实上，这一局面完全是由美国一手促成的。在美印贸易谈判中，涉及到的主要矛盾点集中在印度是否同意向美国开放农业和乳制品市场。众所周知，美 国是全球农业强国，农产品和乳制品的出口在其经济中占有举足轻重的地位，特朗普政府在这方面要求印度做出让步，而印度则坚持表示这是"不可妥协 的红线"。对于印度而言，农业是国家的命脉，一旦让步，可能会导致大量小农户破产。而乳制品则是印度经济发展中重要的朝阳产业，因此印度必须在 这一问题上保持强硬立场，否则将对经济和产业造成不可挽回的损害。这些产 ...

第二波征税函凶猛来袭。 在特朗普发信函给日韩及南非等14国威胁征税之后，当地时间7月9日，特朗普继续公布了对八国的关 税。 关税战步步紧逼，特朗普政府或遭反噬？ 特朗普表示，美国将自2025年8月1日起对文莱和摩尔多瓦的产品征收25%的关税，对阿尔及利亚、伊拉 克、利比亚及斯里兰卡的产品征收30%关税，对菲律宾的产品征收20%关税。 随后，特朗普又在社交媒体发布了致巴西有关加征关税的信函，表示美国将自2025年8月1日起对所有巴 西产品征收50%的关税，这一数字犹如重磅炸弹，远超市场预期。 特朗普认为，美国与巴西存在非常不公平的贸易关系，他称这种贸易关系远远不对等，巴西的贸易政策 导致了对美国不可持续的贸易逆差。 消息公布后，巴西雷亚尔汇率跌幅迅速扩大，美元兑雷亚尔一度突破5.60，日内涨近2.9%。 有观点认为，贸易战没有赢家，特朗普铁了心要将全球拖入贸易战的"火海"，或将加速全球"去美国 化"趋势，很多国家会开始重新审视与美国的经济依赖关系，特朗普政府将反噬自身。 美国国内对此亦批评不断，不少美国商界领袖认为，特朗普政府贸易政策的连锁反应令人不安。奥巴马 政府时期美国驻东盟事务大使Scot Marciel ...

美联储也救不了？特朗普这一决策，让美国债务突破二战纪录 关税战火点燃通胀：美联储被迫陷入两难 美元信任危机爆发：全球资本加速逃离 债务雪球越滚越大：特朗普如何将美国推向财政悬崖 自2025年1月再次入主白宫后，特朗普正一步步瓦解全球对美元和美国经济的信任。他上任时，美国财政缺口已达GDP的6.2%，失业率接近充分就 业水平，国家债务占GDP比重攀升至99%——这一数字已逼近二战结束时的历史高位。然而，特朗普非但未收敛财政扩张，反而通过"大而美法 案"将未来十年的预算缺口推高3.4万亿美元，相当于每年多借出3400亿美元。 美国国会预算办公室（CBO）警告，若政策不变，到2030年债务占GDP比例将突破122%，远超二战后106%的峰值。更严峻的是，当前美国人口老 龄化加剧，经济增长乏力，已无法像战后那样通过发展消化债务。穆迪等机构因此剥夺美国AAA信用评级，终结其百年"信用神话"。 特朗普的"美国优先"政策正引发连锁反应。其对多国商品加征最高40%的关税，规模创近百年新高，直接推高国内通胀。2025年4月，美国消费者 价格指数（CPI）同比上涨3.1%，超出美联储2%目标。然而，特朗普不仅拒绝收敛，反而施压美 ...

马斯克虽然在科技领域表现突出，但对于政治和国家治理的理解，显然缺乏足够的实践经验。在特朗普 二次上任时，马斯克领导的"政府效率部"一度风头无二。这个部门曾大力削减对外援助资金，例如关闭 了国际开发署。然而，这种看似理想化的"节约模式"在美国政府的实践中却遭遇了强烈的反弹，最终不 得不悄然恢复对外援助。 美国本土一直以来由移民组成，因此，从严格意义上讲，美国并不是传统意义上的"国家"。更准确地 说，美国应被视作"这个星球上的一块试验田"。由于这种特殊的构成方式，若特朗普、马斯克或任何其 他人试图将美国像传统国家那样进行治理，最终注定会失败。因为这种做法不仅会削弱美国的"原动 力"和"创造力"，最终还会使美国陷入平庸，丧失其全球领导力。 马斯克与特朗普的结盟与决裂：因"大而美"法案而成败 特朗普推出的"大而美"税收和支出法案提交众议院审议后，马斯克在6月5日明确表示，"大而美"法案通 过的第二天，美国将迎来一个新的政党——"美国党"。7月4日，美国独立日，特朗普签署了这项法案， 使其正式成为法律。紧接着的7月5日，马斯克兑现承诺，通过社交平台X宣布"美国党"正式成立，表示 这一新党派将为人民争取更多的自由。 显然 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Japan reports that multiple regions express concerns over rising sales prices in the U.S. leading to decreased demand and a slowdown in the global economy [1] Group 1 - Companies are worried about the impact of rising sales prices in the U.S. on their demand [1] - There is a general concern regarding the slowdown of the global economy affecting business operations [1]

Group 1: Legislative Overview - The "Great Beauty Act" was passed by the U.S. House of Representatives with a narrow margin of 218 votes in favor and 214 against, and was signed into law by Trump on July 4, 2025[6] - The act is expected to increase the deficit by approximately $4.1 trillion over the next ten years, with tax cuts of about $4.5 trillion and spending cuts of around $1.4 trillion[12][13] Group 2: Market Impact - The market impact of the "Great Beauty Act" is expected to be limited in the short term, as the bond market has already priced in the information over the past two months[6] - The upcoming debt issuance is likely to be managed through short-term bonds, which will not significantly affect long-term bond supply and demand[6][18] Group 3: Economic Projections - The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) and the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget (CRFB) predict that the deficit rate will rise to between 6.4% and 7.1% over the next five fiscal years due to the act[29][28] - Neutral institutions expect the act to contribute an additional economic growth of between -0.1% and 1.1% over the next ten years, indicating a very mild upward impact on the economy[22][23] Group 4: Long-term Implications - The act is likely to force the market to reassess the "new normal" of the U.S. fiscal cycle, leading to a higher central pricing for long-term U.S. Treasury yields[27] - The current 10-year Treasury yield is estimated to be around 4.1%, which is above its fair value, suggesting that the yield may continue to rise in the short term[38][41]

日本央行：多个地区表示，美国关税对出口和产出的影响目前有限。 ...

特朗普的算盘打得啪啪响："美军在韩国驻扎，你们烤肉店生意好了，泡菜厂赚翻了，连夜店都多收了不少门票钱，这些钱都得算我们头上！" 2025年7月，白宫又出大新闻！特朗普拍着桌子对韩国喊话："你们的美军'保安'要涨价了！每年100亿美元，少一分都不行，否则我立刻撤走4500人！"这波 操作直接把韩国网友气炸了："我们交的钱都够买下半个首尔了，美国这是抢钱啊！" 第一刀：把韩国当"提款机"，连烤肉店都要算账？ 第三刀：盟友变仇人，日本菲律宾都在偷笑？ 韩国网友吐槽："这哪是保护费？这是'保护费+关税+精神损失费'三重套餐啊！" 第二刀：撤军是幌子，关岛才是真目标？ 历史账单：2024年韩国刚和美国签了新协议，答应每年给11.3亿美元当"保护费"。结果特朗普一上台就翻脸："拜登签的协议不算数！我要拿回属于美国的 每一分钱！" 特朗普嘴上说"撤军"，背后却藏着更大的棋局——把美军从韩国调去关岛，准备和中国在台海"死磕"！ 加码威胁：除了军费，特朗普还挥舞关税大棒："8月1日起，韩国进口商品加征25%关税！半导体、汽车、化妆品，统统涨价！除非你们开放市场，否则税 率还会更高！" 军事调兵：撤走的4500名美军，大概率会去 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Trump administration's immigration and education policies may lead to a potential loss of nearly $900 million in revenue for U.S. higher education institutions in the upcoming academic year, impacting not only their financial health but also the global education landscape and the international reputation of the U.S. [1][3] Group 1: Impact on U.S. Higher Education - International students are a significant source of revenue for U.S. colleges, contributing to tuition income and enhancing diversity and internationalization [3][4] - The Trump administration has tightened policies for foreign students, including restrictions on entry from certain countries and stricter visa scrutiny, which has led to a decline in international student enrollment [3][4] - The reliance on international students for both revenue and academic contributions highlights the vulnerability of U.S. colleges to these policy changes [4][6] Group 2: Broader Implications - The policies reflect deeper issues within the U.S. education system, including rising costs and stagnant domestic student numbers, which have diminished the competitiveness of U.S. higher education [6][9] - The potential loss of international students could lead to a global talent drain, with students seeking education in countries like Canada, Australia, and the UK instead [6][7] - The financial loss of $900 million may be just the tip of the iceberg, indicating a larger crisis in U.S. education and a shift in global talent mobility [7][9] Group 3: Globalization vs. Nationalism - Trump's policies illustrate the growing tension between globalization and nationalism, undermining the role of education as a bridge for cultural and knowledge exchange [9][10] - The decline in international student enrollment could hinder global knowledge sharing and collaboration, negatively affecting research and innovation [9][10] - U.S. higher education institutions must reassess their strategies to maintain global competitiveness while navigating the challenges posed by nationalist policies [10]

Core Viewpoint - The SPDR Gold Trust, the world's largest gold ETF, reported a total holding of 947.37 tons of gold as of July 9, 2025, reflecting an increase of 0.86 tons from the previous trading day. The fluctuations in gold prices are influenced by various factors including the strength of the US dollar, rising US Treasury yields, and investor sentiment regarding trade agreements [6]. Group 1: Gold ETF Holdings - As of July 9, 2025, SPDR Gold Trust holds 947.37 tons of gold, an increase of 0.86 tons from the previous day [6]. - The report indicates a significant change in gold ETF holdings, which is crucial for understanding market trends [1][3]. Group 2: Gold Price Movements - On July 9, gold prices experienced a drop to a low of $3282.91 per ounce before rebounding to close at $3313.5 per ounce, marking an increase of $11.94 or 0.36% [6]. - The price fluctuations were primarily driven by a strong US dollar and rising Treasury yields, alongside optimistic investor sentiment regarding trade agreements [6]. Group 3: Market Influences - The recent strength in employment data has dampened expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in July, leading to a significant unwinding of long positions in Treasury futures [6]. - The Federal Reserve's meeting minutes revealed a division among officials regarding the timing and necessity of future rate cuts, with most expecting a potential cut later in the year [6]. Group 4: Technical Analysis - The technical outlook for gold has weakened, with the price breaking the upward channel formed since mid-February [6]. - Key support levels are identified at $3297 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement) and $3200, while resistance is noted at $3345 (21-day moving average) and $3375 (23.6% Fibonacci level) [6].