AI播客：换个方式听新闻 下载mp3 音频由扣子空间生成 美国总统特朗普希望美联储尽快削减美国利率，但无论如何作妖，他实际上都无法在短期内对借贷成本 产生太大影响。主要原因包括以下五个。 美联储主席只有一票 自20世纪50年代摆脱财政部的过度干预后，美联储官员就极力捍卫独立性，不会轻易屈从于政治压力。 美联储理事会改组耗时 此外，特朗普很难在短期内彻底重塑美联储理事会。理事会7名成员的任期长达14年且相互交错，目的 就是防止任何一任总统过度影响美联储。 在特朗普剩余任期内，仅有民主党任命的美联储理事库格勒的任期即将结束；其他3名民主党任命的成 员可留任至2030年代。 即便特朗普任命新主席，鲍威尔仍可继续担任理事（其14年理事任期还剩3年）。通常美联储主席卸任 后会退出理事会，但有一个例外：前主席马瑞纳·埃克尔斯（Marriner Eccles）1948年在杜鲁门总统施压 下辞去主席一职后，仍以普通理事身份留任3年，期间始终给杜鲁门制造麻烦。 美联储无法直接控制多数借贷利率 特朗普希望通过替换美联储主席鲍威尔，让顺从自己的人推动降息，但鲍威尔的主席任期要到2026年5 月才结束，且他坚称不会提前辞职。 即便鲍 ...

Core Viewpoint - The RMB exchange rate is expected to fluctuate and appreciate in July 2025, projected to be in the range of 7.10 to 7.25 against the USD, influenced by various domestic and international economic factors [1][6]. Group 1: Exchange Rate Trends - In June 2025, the RMB exchange rate fluctuated within the range of 7.1575 to 7.1986, with the onshore rate between 7.1656 and 7.1895, and the offshore rate between 7.1575 and 7.1986 [2][3]. - The overall trend of the RMB is supported by the continued interest rate cuts by major global economies, which have positively impacted the RMB [2][3]. Group 2: Domestic Economic Factors - In May 2025, China's retail sales increased by 6.4% year-on-year, indicating a steady growth in consumer demand and ongoing economic recovery [3]. - The launch of the domestically developed general-purpose processor, Longxin 3C6000, marks a significant technological breakthrough for China, enhancing its economic stability [3]. Group 3: International Economic Factors - Major economies, including the European Central Bank and the Swiss National Bank, have continued to lower interest rates, which has created a favorable environment for the RMB [2][5]. - Despite the stability in interest rates from the US Federal Reserve, market expectations for future rate cuts have increased due to ongoing global monetary easing [5][6]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The combination of China's economic growth, military advancements, and technological breakthroughs is expected to enhance the attractiveness of Chinese assets, supporting the RMB's stability [5]. - The anticipated passage of the "Big and Beautiful" bill in the US Congress, which could lead to significant fiscal pressure, may further influence market expectations for a potential rate cut by the Federal Reserve [5].

第一部分：大类资产核心观点简述 黄金：地缘方面难以实质性停火，叠加美联储极有可能在下半年重启降息模式，而美元在特朗普政府的"折腾"下开启贬值之路将是大概率事件。总体来看， 黄金牛市还未结束，下半年迎来新一轮大涨的概率大，中期目标上调至4200美元。 原油：地缘整体偏向降温正在挤压原油风险溢价，油价的影响因素回归基本面的可能性较大。欧佩克产油国集团已经逐步开始增产计划。由于超额增产的意 图以及高额的闲置产能，全球供需平衡表正在往供给过剩倾斜，油价易跌难涨，下半年油价维持60-70美元区间调整的可能性较大，极端的情况下，存在挑 战下方55美元的可能。 现货铜：最大的不确定性还是关税政策冲击，在关税阴影下，美铜持续且大幅溢价下正吸引全球其他地区铜源源不断运往美国，美国一年铜消耗大概160万 吨，进口铜约70万吨，对全球其他市场的影响在逐渐显现，LME铜持续去库由贴水转为大幅升水格局，精铜和废铜也出现紧张的现象。综合来看全球铜库 存处于偏紧状态，未来铜价大概率会上破5.30美元。 美股：美国和中国在关税问题上先后进行两轮谈判，6月29日美国总统特朗普宣布，与中国签订"和解协议"，关税政策对美股的冲击基本淡化，另外，下 ...

从技术上看，市场整体反应趋于平淡，金价在本周多空分水岭3316美元／盎司附近徘徊，说明当前市场 的方向尚不明朗，从短期K线结构上看，金价跌破日线21日短期生命线，有进入空头模型的迹象，不过 需进一步确认，建议投资观望为主，等待行情明朗之后再参与，上行方面，阻力关注3385美元／盎司附 近，若金价有效突破该位置，阻力调整至3434美元／盎司附近，下行方面，支撑关注3266美元／盎司附 近，若金价有效跌破该位置，支撑则调整至3198美元／盎司附近。 （文章来源：新华财经） 本周前三个交易日，国际现货金价震荡运行，先跌后涨。 基本面方面，周四凌晨公布的美联储6月会议纪要显示，官员们对利率前景的分歧主要源于对关税影响 通胀的预期不同。纪要显示，仅"少数"官员支持本月降息，多数决策者仍担心特朗普关税政策带来的通 胀压力。在连续第四次会议维持利率不变的同时，该次会议更新的点阵图显示，19名官员中有10人预计 年底前至少会降息两次，但同时有7名官员预测2025年完全不会降息，另有2名官员预测降息一次。大多 数经济学家预计，关税将推高通胀并抑制经济增长。美联储主席鲍威尔表示，如果没有关税，美联储今 年可能已经进一步降息。美联 ...

Group 1 - In June, China's manufacturing, non-manufacturing, and composite PMI rose to 49.7%, 50.5%, and 50.7% respectively, indicating a recovery in domestic market sentiment [1] - Domestic consumption policies have been strengthened, with the central government emphasizing the need to address low-price disorderly competition among enterprises, which is expected to boost domestic risk appetite in the short term [1] - Internationally, the US ISM manufacturing PMI increased to 49, and the ISM non-manufacturing index reached 50.8, both slightly above expectations, indicating a positive trend in the US economy [1] Group 2 - The market is currently focused on domestic incremental stimulus policies and trade negotiation progress, with macroeconomic conditions expected to improve in the short term [1] - The Federal Reserve has signaled a potential early interest rate cut, with the probability of a rate cut in September dropping to around 80% [1] - Short-term strategies suggest a cautious approach to A-shares, with a preference ranking of stock indices over government bonds and commodities [1] Group 3 - The bond market is experiencing reduced external risks and lower inflation expectations, leading to a strong short-term performance in bond prices [1] - Commodity markets are showing overall oscillation and rebound, with oil prices rebounding in the short term and non-ferrous metals continuing to show strength [1] - The strategy ranking for commodities is prioritized as precious metals, followed by non-ferrous, energy, and black metals [1]

Macro News - The Russian Ministry of Defense reported on July 9 that the Russian military conducted a cluster strike on Ukrainian military airport infrastructure, achieving all designated targets [1] - Ukraine's President Zelensky stated that Russia launched a new round of large-scale attacks on multiple Ukrainian cities, with a total of 741 aerial targets identified, most of which were intercepted [1] - The Ukrainian Armed Forces reported 112 battles on the front lines on the same day, successfully repelling Russian advances in multiple directions [1] Defense and Trade - The Trump administration has resumed the shipment of certain weapons to Ukraine, including 155mm artillery ammunition and precision-guided rockets, following a one-week pause [2] - President Trump announced a 50% tariff on all Brazilian products starting August 1, 2025, which Brazilian officials deemed unfair, emphasizing that Brazil is not a problem for the U.S. [2] - The precious metals market is experiencing price consolidation, with ongoing trade negotiations between the EU and the U.S. and new tariff threats from the Trump administration affecting market sentiment [2] - Recent U.S. economic data showed a non-farm payroll increase of 147,000 in June, surpassing market expectations, while the unemployment rate fell to 4.1%, impacting interest rate expectations [2] - The market anticipates potential interest rate cuts starting in September, influenced by trade policy clarity and economic data trends [2]

关注、加星，第一时间接收推送！ 文 | 赵伟、陈达飞、赵宇 联系人 | 赵宇 摘要 美国三大股指集体上涨，美债利率快速回升。 当周，标普500上涨1.6%，道琼斯工业指数上涨2.3%；10Y 美债收益率上行6.0bp至4.4%；美元指数下跌0.3%至96.99，离岸人民币升值至7.1701；WTI原油上涨1.5% 至66.5美元/桶，COMEX黄金上涨1.9%至3332.5美元/盎司。 关税豁免即将到期，警惕关税升级风险。 7月9日，美国进口商品的90天"关税暂停"即将到期。贝森特6月 27日接受采访时表示，约20个谈判进展缓慢的国家将可能被恢复4月2日的初始对等关税税率，只有被认 定"诚意协商"的伙伴才有望继续获得关税豁免延长。 美国6月非农数据强于市场预期，联储7月降息概率下降。 美国6月非农新增就业14.7万人，失业率回落至 4.1%，主要驱动力为州及地方政府就业增加。市场对联储7月降息预期降温，9月降息为基准假设。鲍威 尔在欧洲央行辛特拉论坛上发言，表示关税对通胀效果或在夏天显现。 风险提示 地缘政治冲突升级；美国经济放缓超预期；美联储超预期转"鹰" 报告正文 一、 大类资产&海外事件&数据： （一） ...

Group 1 - In June, China's manufacturing, non-manufacturing, and composite PMI rose to 49.7%, 50.5%, and 50.7% respectively, indicating a recovery in market sentiment [1] - Domestic consumption policies have strengthened, with the Central Financial Committee emphasizing the need to address low-price disorderly competition among enterprises, which is expected to boost domestic risk appetite in the short term [1] - The US ISM manufacturing PMI increased to 49, while the ISM non-manufacturing index reached 50.8, both slightly above expectations, indicating a positive trend in the US economy [1] Group 2 - The US non-farm payrolls increased by 147,000 in June, significantly exceeding expectations, and the unemployment rate fell to 4.1% [1] - Initial jobless claims in the US dropped to 233,000, marking a six-week low, which has led to a reduction in the likelihood of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in July [1] - The Federal Reserve officials have signaled the possibility of an earlier rate cut, while trade agreements between the US and Vietnam, as well as progress with the EU, suggest positive developments in trade negotiations [1] Group 3 - A-shares are expected to cautiously trend upwards, with a focus on domestic incremental stimulus policies and trade negotiation progress [1] - The bond market is experiencing reduced external risks and lower inflation expectations, leading to a strong short-term performance in bond prices [1] - The commodity market is showing overall fluctuations, with oil prices rebounding slightly, while the non-ferrous metals sector continues to show strong performance [1]

上天天基金APP搜索【777】注册即可 领500元券包，优选黄金基金10元起投！限量发放！ 先到先得！ 数据还显示，今年上半年，全球所有地区的黄金ETF均出现资金流入，其中，在美国上市的黄 金ETF吸引了206.8吨的资金流入，创下了五年来最强劲的上半年表现；在亚洲上市的黄金ETF 则吸收了104.3吨。 "尽管5月和6月的势头有所放缓，但亚洲投资者在今年上半年购买了创纪录数量的黄金ETF，在 仅占全球管理总资产9%的情况下，为全球净流入量贡献了28%的惊人份额。"世界黄金协会称。 Choice数据显示，今年以来截至7月8日，多只境内黄金ETF也获得显著的资金净流入。具体来 看，华安易富黄金ETF份额增长33.33亿份，按照7.17元成交均价计算，获得约238.84亿元资金 净流入；国泰黄金ETF、易方达黄金ETF和博时黄金ETF均获得90亿元以上资金净流入。 作为上半年表现最佳的大类资产之一，黄金不仅价格持续走高，相关ETF也迎来巨量资金流 入。 世界黄金协会最新发布数据显示，今年1月至6月，全球黄金ETF"吸金"380亿美元，创下了自 2020年上半年以来的最大半年资金流入量。 上半年黄金ETF吸金380 ...

美国财政部一位高级官员周三表示，他希望看到美联储主席鲍威尔在明年5月主席任期结束后，辞去其 理事职务。 特朗普一直在呼吁鲍威尔降低利率，并明确表示他希望下一任美联储主席能实现这一点。福尔肯德周三 表示，美联储有理由放松其货币政策。 美国财政部副部长福尔肯德（Michael Faulkender）在接受采访时说。"传统上，当一位美联储主席的任 期结束，且他们不再担任主席时，他们就不会再留在委员会了，我希望鲍威尔主席能遵循这方面的传 统。" 这番评论是特朗普政府急于让鲍威尔离开美联储的最新迹象，政府正在考虑替换主席的人选，并在决定 利率升降的强大央行理事会中打上自己的烙印。 随着美联储理事库格勒定于1月31日离任，一个新的为期14年的美联储理事席位将出现空缺。本届政府 目前正在讨论应由谁来填补该席位。它还希望，在鲍威尔的主席任期于明年5月届满时，将有第二个席 位需要填补。 但鲍威尔并未表示他是否打算放弃该席位。 《华尔街日报》周二报道称，国家经济委员会主任凯文·哈塞特现在是该职位的一位有力竞争者。他在6 月份已就此事与特朗普谈过两次，并据报道称如果被提名，他愿意接受这份工作。 据《华尔街日报》称，一个被讨论过的选 ...