行业 贵金属日评 日期 2025 年 5 月 19 日 宏观金融团队 研究员：何卓乔(宏观贵金属) 021-60635739 hezhuoqiao@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3008762 研究员：黄雯昕(国债集运) 021-60635739 huangwenxin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3051589 研究员：聂嘉怡(股指) 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 请阅读正文后的声明 每日报告 一、贵金属行情及展望 日内行情： 隔夜伦敦黄金在俄乌谈判前景转弱以及美联储修订货币政策框架的刺激下从 3120 美元/盎司反弹超过 130 美元，但美伊核协议谈判以及伊朗原油出口前景打 压油价并削弱黄金的避险需求和抗通胀需求，5 月 16 日亚盘时段伦敦黄金偏弱回 调到 3210 美元/盎司；目前金价已经回调到 2024 年底再次上涨以来的 38.2%黄金 分割点附近，本区域可能存在一定程度的支撑力度。特朗普 2.0 新政推动全球政 经格局进入乱纪元模式，黄金的避险需求得到极大 ...

Group 1 - The international monetary system is expected to diversify, with currencies like the Renminbi and Euro gaining prominence as the credibility of the US dollar faces systemic challenges due to rising debt and fiscal deficits [2][3] - The need for global multilateralism is emphasized as a response to the current international order challenges, with the potential for crises to reshape the global system [2][3] - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) and World Bank are anticipated to play more significant roles in the evolving international monetary landscape, with regional development banks also becoming increasingly important [3] Group 2 - China is adopting proactive fiscal policies to counter external uncertainties, with a focus on expanding domestic demand as a primary task [4][5] - The attractiveness of the Chinese market remains strong, supported by a robust economic foundation and a large pool of skilled labor, which enhances its appeal for foreign investment [4] - Chinese enterprises are encouraged to enhance their resilience against external shocks through technological innovation and diversification of markets, while also expanding their global footprint [5]

Group 1: Global Trade and Investment - The ongoing US tariff policies are reshaping the global trade landscape, with experts suggesting that China should play a more significant role in international trade [1] - Former Polish Prime Minister Marek Belka highlighted that the biggest challenges facing the world are imbalance and instability, particularly due to the US's chronic trade deficit stemming from domestic economic imbalances [1] - Michael Spence emphasized that trade wars are mutually damaging and called for the establishment of a multilateral system supported by Europe, China, and other major emerging economies [1] Group 2: China's Market Attractiveness - Despite increasing pressures from US-China trade frictions, the attractiveness of the Chinese market remains strong, with low valuations for Chinese companies and a robust economic foundation [2] - The presence of a large, high-quality population and the world's largest pool of engineers provides China with unique advantages for foreign investment [2] - Continuous opening of economic and financial systems in China is expected to enhance its appeal to foreign investors, a trend that will not change due to US-China tariff disputes [2] Group 3: Global Monetary System - Experts at the forum noted a gradual decline in the dominance of the US dollar in the global monetary system, indicating a trend towards diversification [2] - Hu Xiaolian, former chairman of the Export-Import Bank of China, stated that the future international monetary system will be more diverse and inclusive, with more currencies joining the international monetary ranks [2] Group 4: Renminbi Internationalization - The internationalization of the Renminbi is gaining attention, with the need for a strong international financial center to support it, emphasizing the importance of opening domestic financial markets [3] - The release of the "China Financial Policy Report 2025" analyzed the challenges and opportunities facing China's financial development, including external complexities and the restructuring of international trade orders [3] - The report also addressed issues in financial security and regulation, highlighting the impact of regulatory reforms in various countries, particularly the US, on global financial stability [3]

持仓格局生变 中英日上演三国杀 美国财政部最新TIC报告揭开全球资本流动暗涌：2025年3月，中国单月减持189亿美元美债至7654亿美 元，让出"美国第二大债主"席位；日本则增持49亿美元至1.13万亿美元稳居榜首，英国趁机补位第二。 值得注意的是，此次调仓正值美债收益率突破4.5%关键点位前夕，折射出全球投资者对美元资产的重 估。 高盛集团最新预测加剧市场焦虑——该行将10年期美债收益率预期上调50个基点至4.5%，2年期收益率 预期调高至3.9%。东吴证券芦哲指出，当前美国债务/GDP比率已达97.8%，"这个全球最大灰犀牛正加 速冲向107.2%的历史峰值"。 "这不是简单的头寸调整，而是全球货币体系重构的前兆。"某中资大行交易主管透露，部分央行正将减 持美债获得的流动性转化为黄金储备，3月全球官方黄金购买量同比激增63%。 三重绞索勒紧美债市场 1. 货币预期逆转：美联储降息时点推迟至12月，4.9%的30年期美债收益率创年内新高 2. 供需严重失衡：6月偿债高峰叠加美联储缩表，特朗普减税法案或新增3.7万亿赤字 3. 信任危机发酵：36.21万亿美元联邦债务压顶，海外持有占比持续下滑至26.8% ...

硬币的另一面，国际货币体系正经历历史性重构。欧元、人民币加速崛起。新兴市场货币登台亮相，东 盟十国本币结算框架、金砖国家应急储备安排等机制创新，让发展中国家在全球金融治理中拥有更多话 语权。货币再平衡将会引导世界货币体系朝着更加多元、更加包容的方向发展。 开放，意味着打破国与国之间的贸易壁垒，让商品、服务和资本在全球范围内自由流动。这不仅能够促 进资源的优化配置，让用户享受到物美价廉的商品，还能带动各国经济的协同发展。 关税武器化只能搬起石头砸自己的脚。美国单边主义政策虽试图重塑贸易平衡，却陷入"按下葫芦浮起 瓢"的困境。真正的再平衡需回归经济规律。 对于美国而言，全球贸易的再平衡问题，不能只找外因，而应把主要关注点放在国内，只有自身经济结 构均衡了，贸易不平衡问题才能有效解决。 包容，意味着要构建多元共生的货币新秩序。当前，美元"特里芬难题"日益凸显，无法兼顾"满足全球 流动性需求"和"维持币值稳定"两大目标，货币霸主光环日益暗淡。 在变乱交织的全球局势下，比黄金更珍贵的是共同发展的决心。 5月17日—18日，2025清华五道口全球金融论坛在深圳召开。作为国内最具影响力的金融学术与政策的 国际化交流平台之一 ...

5月17日，2025清华五道口全球金融论坛在深圳召开。波兰前总理马雷克·贝尔卡在论坛现场接受北京商报记者采访时表示，未来国际货币体系或朝着多极化 方向发展。他还直言，"如果我在一家央行负责外汇储备，我不会如此热衷于黄金投资，因为我知道黄金现在看起来像一颗新星，但这颗星星可能会陨落"。 美国慢性贸易赤字来自其国内经济不平衡 在论坛开幕式致辞中，马雷克·贝尔卡抛出了问题：美国总统特朗普到底想要什么？他认为，特朗普希望使美国成为一个制造业大国。 "从欧洲的视角来看，他这么想很奇怪。因为我们一直都觉得美国是全球的经济引擎，而且它在前沿科技方面领先，它在这方面远超于欧洲的进展。"马雷克 ·贝尔卡表示，如果仔细审视的话，会发现在美国的社会和经济结构中都出现了很大的不平衡，这就是为什么特朗普总统对美国国民表示，"现在美国处于危 机当中"。 "但是，谁来从事这些制造业工作呢？尤其是考虑到现在美国的部分移民政策，特朗普政府成功限制了移民，无论是制造业人口的数量还是质量，都不足以 支持他的想法。因此特朗普提出增加关税。但我们都知道，至少从经济学家角度来看，关税并不是贸易不平衡背后的主要推手。"马雷克·贝尔卡说道。 现在美国慢性的 ...

Group 1: Global Currency System and Dollar Status - The recent sell-off of dollar assets is viewed as a short-term phenomenon, and despite a decline in trust, the dollar's dominant position in the global currency system remains difficult to challenge [4] - New currencies like the euro, renminbi, and Special Drawing Rights (SDR) are unlikely to gain widespread acceptance in the short term, as the formation of reserve currencies requires long-term accumulation of national economic strength [4] - The transition from a unipolar to a multipolar global currency system requires significant changes in the economic field, which is still a distant goal [4] Group 2: Development of Digital Renminbi - Public acceptance of digital renminbi depends on its advantages over existing payment methods; without unique benefits, it may struggle to gain popularity [5] - The success of digital renminbi in international markets faces challenges similar to those in China, where entrenched payment methods like credit cards hinder the adoption of alternatives [5] - Market forces should drive the development of digital renminbi, with widespread adoption occurring only when businesses find it more convenient and cost-effective than traditional banking [5] Group 3: Internationalization of Renminbi - The path to renminbi internationalization is long and challenging, with non-convertibility and strict capital controls being the main obstacles [7] - Despite China's significant role in global trade, the current economic environment is not conducive to opening capital accounts and achieving full convertibility of the renminbi [7] - Long-term, as China's economy continues to develop, issues surrounding renminbi convertibility and capital flow will gradually be resolved, leading to its important position in the global currency system [7]

5月17日-18日 2025清华五道口全球金融论坛 于深圳盛大召开 汇聚国内外金融界 领袖、学者及行业精英 浓缩思维干货 定位思维坐标 闭门主旨 开幕式 主题一：面向未来的全球货币体体系 主题二：新形势下的国际贸易与投资 这四场的嘉宾金句干货已打包完毕 快查收↓↓↓ 第十二届全国政协副主席 中国人民银行前行长 清华大学五道口金融学院院长 焦捷 金句集锦 周小川 马雷克・贝尔卡 波兰前总理 迈克尔・斯宾塞 2001年诺贝尔经济学奖得主 主题论坛一 面向未来的全球货币体系 马克・乌赞 重塑布雷顿森林体系委员会 执行董事兼创始人 白乐夫 亚投行首席经济学家 马克・马洛赫 - 布朗勋爵 联合国前副秘书长 施康 香港中文大学经济系教授 清华大学五道口金融学院特聘教授 马西米利亚诺・加斯塔利 瑞银资产管理全球战略主管 主题 论坛二 新形势下的国际贸易与投资 田轩 清华大学国家金融研究院院长 清华大学五道口金融学院副院长、讲席教授 胡晓炼 中国进出口银行原董事长 中国国际经济交流中心副理事长 李楠 联合国贸发会议投资与企业司司长 联合国可持续证券交易所倡议主席 马歇尔・米尔斯 崔丽 来源丨清华五道口 编辑丨兰银帆 审核 | ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the international trade and investment landscape will undergo changes due to the tariff policies of the Trump administration, with three key areas of focus: cost-effectiveness rebalancing, internal economic structure adjustments in major economies, and currency rebalancing [1][2][4] Group 2 - Cost-effectiveness rebalancing in international trade and investment may increase opportunities for "global south" and emerging market countries, as traditional factors like labor and resources are now joined by innovation, institutional, and green development elements [1][2] - The difficulty of manufacturing returning to the U.S. is highlighted, as the U.S. lacks competitive strength in general processing and labor-intensive industries, leading to a preference for trade and investment in countries with lower costs and tariffs [2] - Major economies will experience profound adjustments in their internal economic structures due to global trade rebalancing, with the U.S. trade deficit increasing over 50% from 2017 to 2024, while the EU's trade surplus has grown over 400% [2] Group 3 - Currency rebalancing is expected to lead to a more diverse and inclusive global monetary system, with more currencies joining the international monetary ranks and increased participation of emerging market currencies in trade and investment [2][4] - The importance of digital currencies is emphasized, particularly their potential role as public goods for international cross-border trade and investment [3] - The possibility of enhancing the International Monetary Fund's Special Drawing Rights (SDR) function is also discussed, indicating a shift towards a more diverse and inclusive monetary system [4]

Group 1 - The global financial system is undergoing a transformation due to increasing uncertainty, with discussions on the future of the global monetary system highlighting the need for new multilateralism to reflect the changing global order [1][4][5] - Emerging economies are gaining more influence in the global financial system, with a shift from a US-centric model to a more multipolar structure, necessitating greater choice for developing countries [4][5] - The current economic model in China is transitioning from export-driven to domestic consumption-based, recognizing the importance of a large domestic market [5] Group 2 - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) and World Bank are expected to play a more significant role in managing potential financial crises, emphasizing the need for a restructured international system [7][8] - There is a call for the IMF to expand Special Drawing Rights (SDR) and increase the weight of the Chinese yuan in a diversified reserve system to alleviate pressure on the US dollar [8] - Regional development banks, such as the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank, are becoming increasingly important in the global financial landscape, providing a more diversified approach to development [7][8]