美国铝升水创历史新高！ 金十期货6月5日讯，据外媒报道，美国消费者在现货市场购买铝的升水于周四创下每磅60美分或每吨 1323美元的历史新高，此前美国对进口铝征收更高的关税。自去年11月以来，美国中西部铝升水已上涨 近190%。美国消费者在现货市场购买铝时，通常需支付伦敦金属交易所（LME）基准价格加上升水， 以覆盖包括运费和税费在内的成本。美国高度依赖铝进口，其中绝大多数来自加拿大。 ...

周四，氧化铝期货大幅下挫，回吐昨日全部涨幅，价格再度跌破3000元关口，价格增仓下行，日内收跌 2.90%，报2943元/吨。 库存拐点显现，结束四连降！引发短期悲观预期 我的钢铁网分析认为：当前国内氧化铝企业用矿压力仍在，一方面在于几内亚铝矿政策扰动及海运费波 动等因素导致近期几内亚铝土矿价格维持上涨局面；另一方面是短期国产铝土矿补充供应缺口能力有 限。 最新数据显示，氧化铝市场库存压力正在逐步显现。据Mysteel统计，截至6月5日全国氧化铝库存为 380.5万吨，较前一周增加1.1万吨，此前连续四周下降。其中港口库存大增4.1万吨，在途库存小幅增 加，而氧化铝及电解铝厂内库存则出现下降。这一库存结构变化表明，市场流通环节的氧化铝供应正在 增加，而终端需求方的采购意愿相对减弱。 金瑞期货指出：市场情绪受现货跌价成交及社会库存转累影响，引发短期悲观预期，期价增仓下行。 多家氧化铝企业陆续着手复产，供应端压力持续增加 氧化铝供应端呈现明显恢复态势。据SMM数据，截至本周四，全国冶金级氧化铝建成总产能11082万 吨/年，运行总产能8727万吨/年，全国氧化铝周度开工率较上周回升0.54个百分点至78.75%。 ...

氧化铝&电解铝6月报 几内亚扰动告一段落，氧化铝震荡偏弱；库存支撑较强，电解铝震荡偏强 2025年5月 CO NTENTS 目 录 01 观点与策略 0203 盘面表现回顾 铝产业链供应情况 04 铝产业下游与终端表现情况 05 铝产业库存 01 观点与策略 观点策略 | | 观点 核心逻辑 | | --- | --- | | | 供应端，几内亚取消40多家企业采矿许可，一度让氧化铝价格涨至3200以上，但 震荡偏弱 | | | 实际影响有限；几内亚发运量维持强势，海外矿石供应持续走强，缓解国内铝土 | | | 矿供应偏紧局面。需求端，丰水期将至，西南地区有部分电解铝产能复产，但目 | | 氧化铝 | 前电解铝产能利用率已超96%，增长空间不大，氧化铝需求增量有限。国内氧化 | | | 铝行业库存处于近四年同期最低位，低价格底部有一定支撑。综合来看，铝土矿 | | | 整体供应逐步走向宽松，将持续对价格施压；海内外铝土矿价格延续偏弱态势， | | | 氧化铝成本亦难以上涨。预计氧化铝6月仍将维持震荡偏弱态势，反弹空间有限， | | | 运行区间参考【2800-3400】，以逢高沽空思路为主。 | | 电解铝 ...

Group 1 - The domestic aluminum oxide futures market is experiencing a downward trend, with the main contract trading at 3053.0 CNY/ton and a decline of approximately 3.10% [1] - Supply from mining sources remains normal, with Guinea and Australia maintaining steady shipping volumes, leading to a situation of oversupply [1] - Domestic aluminum oxide inventory is decreasing, but the pace of reduction is slowing down, while the current price is significantly higher than the futures price, indicating a standard backwardation structure [1] Group 2 - Overseas aluminum oxide transactions have been relatively quiet, with minor price fluctuations, while domestic prices are rising, turning imports from losses to profits [2] - The aluminum oxide spot price remains firm due to concentrated maintenance and production cuts, with the 2509 contract expected to stabilize around the 3000 CNY mark [2] - Despite the current balance in supply and demand, medium-term expectations of oversupply pressure still exist [2]

晨报 铝锭 成材：重心下移 偏弱运行 铝锭：关税政策提振铝价 关注高价下游反馈 投资咨询业务资格： 逻辑：云贵区域短流程建筑钢材生产企业春节期间停产检修时间大多 在 1 月中下旬，复产时间预计在正月初十一至正月十六左右，停产期间预 计影响建筑钢材总产量 74.1 万吨。安徽省 6 家短流程钢厂，1 家钢厂已 于 1 月 5 日开始停产；其余大部分钢厂均表示将于 1 月中旬左右停产放假， 个别钢厂预计 1 月 20 日后停产放假，停产期间日度影响产量 1.62 万吨左 右。2024 年 12 月 30 日-2025 年 1 月 5 日，10 个重点城市新建商品房成 证监许可【2011】1452 号 成 材：武秋婷 逻辑:昨日铝价偏强震荡。受美元走软和美国数据疲软支撑，市场努力 应对日益加剧的经济等不确定性。美国数据显示非制造业采购经理人指数 上月降至 49.9，为 2024 年 6 月以来的最低值，而 ADP 数据显示美国民间增 加的就业岗位为两年多来最少。所有人都在关注周五的美国非农就业报告， 以寻找美联储下一步行动的线索。白宫今日发表声明称，美国总统特朗普 正式将钢铁和铝的关税从 25%提高到 50%，新关 ...

德国工商总会外贸主管特赖尔表示，美方这一决定是"对跨大西洋贸易关系的严重打击"。 墨西哥总统辛鲍姆4日表示，美国宣布提高钢铝关税是一项"不公平的措施"，没有法律依据，如果 不能与美国达成协议，将会采取应对措施。 央广网北京6月5日消息 据中央广播电视总台中国之声《新闻和报纸摘要》报道，美国将进口钢铝 关税从25%提高至50%的政策4日生效，从英国进口相关产品税率暂维持在25%不变。此举引发加拿大、 欧盟、日本等多方批评，欧盟表示可能对美方进行反制。 巴西总统卢拉表示，如果不能与美国就关税问题达成协议，巴西可能向世贸组织提起诉讼，或采取 对等措施。 加拿大总理卡尼4日表示，美国的钢铝关税毫无正当性，也没有法律依据，不仅对美国工人和产业 不利，对加拿大产业同样造成冲击。作为美国最大的钢铝供应国，加拿大将作出回应。 欧盟委员会负责贸易和经济安全等事务的委员谢夫乔维奇4日在法国巴黎表示，针对美国将进口钢 铁和铝的关税从25%上调至50%，欧盟方面已与美国贸易代表进行了讨论，并向美方指出此举无助于欧 美正在进行的谈判。 日本经济再生大臣赤泽亮正对美国提高钢铝关税表示"极其遗憾"，"强烈要求"美方修改相关政策。 多国行业 ...

Group 1 - The U.S. has increased tariffs on imported steel and aluminum from 25% to 50%, effective from April 4, facing opposition from major trade partners like Canada and the EU [1][5] - The increase in tariffs is expected to lead to price hikes in large consumer goods and food products, with predictions that the price of cars could rise by $2,000 to $4,000 due to the high steel content [2][3] - Historical data shows that during a previous tariff increase, major household appliance prices rose by 5% to 10%, significantly above the overall inflation rate of around 2% during the same period [2] Group 2 - Canada has criticized the U.S. tariff policy as "illegal and unreasonable," and is actively negotiating with the U.S. to remove these tariffs [5] - The EU has expressed strong regret over the tariff increase and is preparing to implement countermeasures [7] - International criticism highlights that the U.S. tariff policy may have a more significant negative impact on the U.S. economy compared to Europe, with calls for potential retaliatory measures from the EU if negotiations fail [9][11] Group 3 - Brazil's President has indicated that if an agreement on tariffs cannot be reached with the U.S., Brazil may consider filing a lawsuit with the WTO or taking reciprocal measures [11] - The German machinery manufacturing sector has reported a significant decline in new orders, with a 6% year-on-year drop in April, attributed to the uncertainty caused by the U.S. tariff policy [13][14] - The chief economist of the German machinery association emphasized that the current tariff threats and policy uncertainties are severely impacting global market conditions and investment willingness [14]

Core Viewpoint - Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney stated that the U.S. tariffs on steel and aluminum lack justification and legal basis, negatively impacting both American workers and industries as well as Canadian industries [1] Group 1 - Canada is the largest supplier of steel and aluminum to the U.S. [1] - Carney indicated that Canada will respond to the tariffs imposed by the U.S. [1]

Core Viewpoint - Canadian Prime Minister Carney stated that the U.S. tariffs on steel and aluminum are illegal [1] Group 1: Impact on Trade Relations - The statement reflects ongoing tensions between Canada and the U.S. regarding trade policies [1] - Carney's comments may influence negotiations and discussions surrounding NAFTA and other trade agreements [1] Group 2: Industry Implications - The tariffs could have significant repercussions for the Canadian steel and aluminum industries, potentially affecting pricing and supply chains [1] - Canadian companies may seek to adapt to the tariffs by exploring alternative markets or increasing domestic production [1]

墨西哥将在下周宣布应对美国钢铁和铝关税上调的措施。 ...