Core Viewpoint - The international spot gold price continues to decline, driven by reduced safe-haven demand due to optimistic trade sentiments and a stronger US dollar, with significant market movements observed in recent trading sessions [1][3][4]. Group 1: Market Sentiment and Trade Developments - Optimism in trade negotiations has led to a decrease in safe-haven demand for gold, as the US has postponed tariff implementation on Japan, South Korea, and 14 other countries until August 1, allowing for potential negotiations [3]. - Geopolitical risks have also eased, with the shipping volume in the Strait of Hormuz returning to normal levels, further boosting global risk appetite and diminishing gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset [3]. Group 2: Currency and Economic Indicators - The US dollar index has strengthened, reaching 97.660, which directly pressures gold prices as it increases the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like gold [4]. - Market expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's monetary policy have shifted, with concerns about delayed interest rate cuts growing, particularly after mixed employment data [6]. Group 3: Technical Analysis and Market Dynamics - Gold prices have breached the critical psychological level of $3,300, entering a technical support zone between $3,280 and $3,290, with potential for further declines if this support fails [7]. - The recent net reduction of 12 tons in global gold ETFs indicates that institutional investors are taking profits amid easing trade tensions, contributing to increased market selling pressure [7]. Group 4: Investor Behavior and Market Outlook - Investor sentiment is notably divided, with retail investors buying on dips while institutional investors are establishing short positions in the futures market, indicating a bearish outlook [9]. - The current gold market is at a critical juncture, with trade optimism and a strong dollar exerting short-term pressure, while central bank gold purchases and geopolitical risks provide long-term support [10].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the soda ash futures market is experiencing a volatile upward trend, with the main contract priced at 1190.00 yuan/ton, reflecting a 1.10% increase [1] - Weekly production of soda ash in China decreased to 709,000 tons, a 1.09% decline from the previous week, while the capacity utilization rate slightly fell to 81.32%, down 0.89% [2] - Domestic soda ash manufacturers' total inventory reached 1.8481 million tons, an increase of 38,600 tons or 2.13% from the previous week, with light soda ash at 805,800 tons and heavy soda ash at 1.0423 million tons [2] Group 2 - East China Futures notes that the glass industry is expected to reduce production due to signals from the Central Financial Committee regarding governance, raising concerns about potential capacity exit in the soda ash market [3] - The soda ash profit margin has decreased week-on-week, with ammonia-soda method profits turning negative and the soda-lime method profits at breakeven [3] - Ningzheng Futures observes that the domestic soda ash market remains weak and fluctuating, with high supply and inventory levels, and downstream enterprises showing low purchasing enthusiasm [3]

Core Viewpoint - Silver prices are stabilizing around $36.70, remaining near a 13-year high amid ongoing trade tensions and geopolitical risks [1][3]. Group 1: Market Conditions - Silver is trading within a range of $35.50 to $37.30, with the 20-day moving average at $36.42 acting as immediate support [3][5]. - The recent announcement by Trump imposing a 25% tariff on 14 countries, including major trading partners like Japan and South Korea, has heightened trade tensions [2][3]. - The extension of the deadline for reciprocal tariffs from July 9 to August 1 provides more negotiation time but keeps trade tensions elevated [3]. Group 2: Technical Analysis - Silver prices have been consolidating for the past four weeks, reflecting a cautious stance among traders following a strong rebound in early June [5]. - The Bollinger Bands are narrowing, indicating reduced volatility and the potential for a breakout, although a clear directional trigger is needed [5]. - Momentum indicators suggest a cautious bullish outlook, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 60, indicating moderate buying interest without signs of being overbought [5]. Group 3: Price Levels - A daily close above $37.30 would confirm a bullish breakout, potentially paving the way for prices to reach $38.00 and $39.00 in the short term [6]. - The first support level is at approximately $36.42, which aligns with the middle line of the Bollinger Bands; a break below this level could expose the lower end at around $35.72 [6]. - If the support at $36.42 fails, the next downside target would be $34.50, indicating a deeper corrective move [6].

Group 1 - PVC futures main contract experienced fluctuations, reaching a peak of 4930.00 yuan, closing at 4920.00 yuan with a 0.70% increase [1] - Institutions predict PVC prices will remain weak due to increased supply and low demand, with expectations of low-level fluctuations [1][2] - The supply side is pressured by new production capacities from companies like Wanhua Chemical and Tianjin Bohua, while demand remains sluggish, particularly in the real estate sector [1][2] Group 2 - The Indian PVC BIS policy has been postponed for another six months, which may positively impact future PVC exports [2] - The market anticipates an improvement in the oversupply situation due to the impact of anti-involution policies and sentiment in the building materials sector [2] - The expected trading range for the PVC 2509 contract is between 4800 and 5100 yuan, indicating low-level fluctuations [2]

欧佩克+总是让投机者和市场分析师感到惊讶。上周末决定8月产量水平的会议预计将是一个简短的例 行视频通话，宣布再次增产41.1万桶/日。 虽然很短，但8月份的增幅大于预期，为54.8万桶/日。正在解除减产的八个欧佩克+成员国预计将在9月 份再次大幅增加产量，其中220万桶/日的减产将全部重返市场，至少标题数据显示如此。然而，没有人 真正确定欧佩克+这些天实际提高了多少原油产量，因为一些生产商的产量低于配额以弥补之前的生产 过剩。分析人士一致认为，超大规模的增产并没有那么大。 如果5月份亚洲进口强劲主要是由于低油价，那么今年夏天晚些时候亚洲的整体需求可能会令人失望， 因为由于上个月大部分时间的战争溢价，6月份的进口量将大幅下降。因此，路透社专栏作家Clyde Russell认为，需求可能并不像看起来那么强劲。 荷兰国际集团（ING）大宗商品策略师Warren Patterson和Ewa Manthey周二在一份报告中写道，短期内 市场仍然紧张，紧张程度反映在布伦特原油时间间隔的强势上。他们补充道："预期的供应过剩要到今 年晚些时候才会实现，届时我们预计价格将面临更持续的下行压力。"中间馏分油市场也在收紧，比原 油 ...

《中国民航报》、中国民航网 通讯员 王英斌编译报道：韩国国土交通部、仁川国际机场公司和韩国机 场公司近日公布的统计数据显示，今年上半年（1月至6月），韩国机场国际旅客流量突破4600万人次， 创上半年历史新高。 1月至6月，韩国国内机场起降的国内外航空公司国际航班旅客总数达4602.9842万人次。与去年同期相 比增长了7.6%，超过了该部统计的2019年上半年4556万人次的历史最高纪录。国际航班数量达26.4253 万架次，同比增长5.6%，同样超过2019年上半年的记录（26.3681万架次）。 国际旅客增幅最大的航线为中国航线的781万人次（同比增加152万人次），增幅高达24.3%。中国航线 旅客数量的增长主要得益于中国政府于2018年11月实施的韩国公民短期签证豁免措施。此外，如果韩国 政府推出的在7月至9月期间对中国团体游客实行限时免签的政策得以实施，预计访韩中国游客数量还会 大幅增加。 居中国航线之后，日本航线的旅客数量也有大幅增长。该航线的乘客数量约1343万人次，同比增长 9.9%。 此外，前往美洲（同比增长7.8%）、欧洲（增长3.0%）和中东（增长5.2%）的远程航线乘客数量也有 所增 ...

Industry Overview - The electronic universal testing machine is a key device for testing the mechanical properties of materials, widely used in various fields such as metals, non-metals, and composites [2][4] - The market for electronic universal testing machines is rapidly developing due to the transformation and upgrading of the manufacturing industry and the rise of emerging industries [11] Industry Development History - The development of China's electronic universal testing machine industry has gone through four stages, starting from reliance on imports before 1978 to the current phase of innovation and smart transformation [4][5][6] - The introduction of microcomputer control technology and the development of high-performance testing machines have significantly advanced the industry [5][6] Current Industry Status - In the first five months of 2025, China imported 12 electronic universal testing machines, a year-on-year decrease of 14.29%, while the import value reached 30.6647 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 288.65% [11] - Exports of electronic universal testing machines amounted to 7,317 units, a year-on-year decrease of 63.58%, but the export value increased by 40.29% to 60.7024 million yuan, indicating a shift from quantity to quality in exports [11] Industry Supply Chain - The upstream of the electronic universal testing machine industry includes raw materials, components, and software, while the midstream involves the production of testing machines, and the downstream applications span various industries such as aerospace, rail transportation, and automotive [8][9] Key Enterprises - The competitive landscape of the electronic universal testing machine industry features both leading companies and numerous small to medium enterprises, with major players like WanCe, Zhongji Testing, and Sansi Technology leading the market [17][20] - These companies are focusing on high-end electronic universal testing machines and expanding into international markets, enhancing China's global influence in this sector [17] Industry Development Trends - The industry is experiencing technological upgrades and a shift towards smart development, with the integration of AI algorithms and remote monitoring capabilities [22] - Market demand is diversifying, with traditional sectors like aerospace and automotive growing alongside emerging fields such as new energy vehicles and biomedicine [23] - International competition is intensifying, prompting Chinese companies to enhance R&D investment and seek collaboration with global counterparts [24]

面对新质生产力加速发展、县域经济崛起、就业市场结构性矛盾凸显等新特征，如何通过政策创新实现 就业与用工的精准匹配，成为破解就业难题的关键。 ■ 李海楠 当前正值毕业季，教育部会同相关部门组织各地各高校积极行动，聚力攻坚，全力促进未就业毕业生就 业。下一步，教育部还将会同相关部门提供不断线就业服务，帮助未就业毕业生通过参与职业能力培 训、就业见习等尽早实现就业。 这不仅是对当前就业形势的积极回应，更折射出中国经济结构转型与人才需求升级的深层互动。 随着经济回升向好为今年就业环境奠定总体稳定基调，加之各地积极筹备政策挖潜岗位需求，应对预计 达1222万人的2025年高校毕业生应做到未雨绸缪、有的放矢。 展望下半年乃至今后的就业市场，要维持就业市场稳定，同时与经济社会发展相匹配，仍需要持续且有 效的政策工具创新。 积极对接新质生产力加速发展所衍生出的人才需求缺口。2025年以来，教育部持续对接经济大省的人才 需求，挖潜拓岗，推动构建区域性就业大市场。比如，广东省围绕发展新质生产力等领域需求，已挖掘 岗位超120万个，实现了人才供给与产业需求的同频共振。 这种"产业需求清单+高校专业调整"的联动机制，意在通过对经济大 ...

Core Insights - The current overseas storage and industrial storage sectors are at a turning point of industry recovery, with inventory backlog being resolved and downstream market share concentrating, leading to a release of demand from Asia, Africa, and Latin America [1] - It is expected that leading companies will see significant improvement in Q2 2025, exceeding market expectations, and the annual performance will return to a high growth range [1] - The recovery in Australia, Europe, and emerging markets has led to a substantial increase in shipments of small inverters in Q2, with positive guidance for future performance, marking the beginning of a new growth phase for the overseas energy storage inverter industry [1]

证券研究报告·行业点评报告·工程机械 工程机械行业点评报告 6 月挖机内销韧性凸显，出口高景气延续 2025 年 07 月 09 日 增持（维持） [Table_Tag] [投资要点 Table_Summary] ◼ 国内市场：6 月挖掘机内销增速转正，需求韧性凸显 2025 年 6 月挖掘机销量 18804 台，同比+13%，其中国内挖机销量 8136 台，同比+6%，恢复正增长。1-6 月国内挖机累计销量 65637 台，同比+22.9%， 整体景气度向上。6 月装载机销量 12014 台，同比+11%，其中国内销量 6015 台，同比+14%。5 月国内挖机销量波动导致市场预期较低，6 月已有 所恢复，我们认为全年来看工程机械仍能够实现可观增长，主要由于：① 当前短期波动主要由于资金到位节奏：下游并非缺乏项目，而是地方政府 资金到位率的短期波动影响开工继而影响销量。展望后续，中央资金对应 的水利款项将在 2025 年持续形成支撑，地方政府资金也将随着化债压力 逐渐减小而逐步倾斜至工程开工端，农村水利带来的中小挖需求有望成为 内需韧性的核心来源。②存量更新替换需求仍在：上一轮挖机上行周期为 2015-20 ...