Joining us now is our former vice chair, Alan Blinder. Allan, good to have you. Uh, tariffs going to be what would one would imagine an important sort of focus certainly in the press conference.Where do you stand in terms of the inflationary impact of tariffs, which we have yet to really see in any significance. Is it still coming. I I think it's still coming.I I stand exactly where you are that we haven't seen much from the tariffs yet. The tariffs have been announced, unannounced, announced, unannounced. ...

全球经济增长受贸易壁垒上升、政策不确定性加剧等因素影响显著放缓，2025年增速预计降至2.3%，为2008年以来最低（除全球衰退年份）。新兴市场和 发展中经济体（EMDEs）增长乏力，缩小与发达经济体人均收入差距的进程受阻，贫困 reduction 进程缓慢。各区域经济前景分化， downside risks突出，需 全球合作与结构性改革应对。 全球经济展望 - 增长放缓：2025年全球GDP增速2.3%，2026-2027年温和回升至2.5%。发达经济体增速降至1.2%，美国、欧元区受贸易政策冲击显著。EMDEs增速3.8%， 中国增速4.5%，印度6.3%，但多数国家增长低于预期。 - 贸易与通胀：全球贸易增速2025年降至1.8%，商品价格下跌10%，能源价格受OPEC+增产和需求疲软影响显著。全球通胀2025年预计2.9%，核心通胀因服 务价格压力持续高企。 - 金融市场：全球金融条件收紧，EMDEs资本外流、汇率贬值压力加大，主权债利差扩大，但短期波动后部分恢复。 区域经济前景 主要风险与政策建议 - 风险挑战：贸易壁垒进一步升级、全球金融条件收紧、地缘政治冲突加剧、极端天气频发、新兴市场债务危机。 ...

[Applause] Growing up, I often grappled with the fear of the unknown. Whether it was moving to a completely new country, starting a new school, or making new friends, every new day or new decision feels like you're trapped between two possibilities. In this world where reality isn't as clearcut as it seems, what if something could exist in two states at once.What if right now something crucial in your life is both true and false. Let's take a deeper look. In 1935, physicist Irvvin Schroinger introduced a th ...

Well, Rick, home builder sentiment in June dropped two points from May to 32 on the NAHB index. The street was actually looking for a slight improvement. This index has only seen a lower reading twice since the Great Recession back in 2012.And that was in December of 2022 when mortgage rates first shot up from those pandemic record lows and in April 2020 at the very start of the pandemic. Now, the builder site high mortgage rates, tariffs, and overall economic uncertainty of the index's three components. Cu ...

For more on the data in the Fed's policy meeting, we want to bring in Dennis Lockhart. He is former Atlanta Fed president and a distinguished professor of international affairs at Georgia Tech. Uh Dennis, what do you think of of Steve's analysis on this.The idea that yeah, the numbers are bad, but a lot of that was pulled forward. Yeah, I'll associate myself with Steve's analysis there. I think this the pull forward effect is probably showing up in the numbers which uh means that the committee is likely to ...

Group 1 - Permian Resources announced another acquisition during the first quarter earnings press release, indicating ongoing growth and expansion strategies [2] - The revised guidance provided by Permian Resources did not account for the latest acquisition, suggesting potential for further adjustments in future forecasts [2] - The oil and gas industry is characterized as a boom-bust, cyclical sector, requiring patience and experience for successful investment [2] Group 2 - The analysis of oil and gas companies focuses on identifying undervalued names within the sector, examining balance sheets, competitive positions, and development prospects [1] - Members of the Oil & Gas Value Research service receive early access to analyses and insights that are not available on the free site [1]

Welcome back. Plenty to talk about with our next guest, a titan on Wall Street who's not shy when it comes to his concerns around tariffs, the national debt, and risks ahead for equities. Joining us this morning, a mega family office chairman and CEO, Leon Coopermanman.Leah, it's great to have you back. Appreciate the time this morning. My pleasure.A few weeks ago, you were on the tape saying that you felt the multiple seems far too high. I have a feeling that probably hasn't changed. No, there's only a cou ...

Key Takeaways TOST stock gained 19% in 3 months, outperforming the S&P 500 and nearing its 52-week high of $45.56. Declining GPV per location and rising operating costs pose near-term profitability concerns for TOST. Stretched valuation and intensifying competition may limit TOST's upside despite recent market momentum.Toast, Inc. (TOST) shares have gained 19.2% in the past three months, outperforming the Internet Software market and the Zacks Computer & Technology sector’s growth of 12.5% and 9.7%, respe ...

I just laid out a laundry list of potential catalysts and factors at play. Can you tell us why the markets are not reacting more forcefully to everything going on domestically and abroad. I it's really quite a moment when you look at the constellation of of geopolitical risks.But one thing that I can say with the perspective of covering geopolitics and markets for 25 years is that the perceived importance of Middle East conflict and its relationship to the oil price has um declined over time. But I think in ...

Core Viewpoint - Gap is experiencing a resurgence with a reported 5% same-store sales growth for its fiscal first quarter of 2025, marking the sixth consecutive quarter of growth [1] Group 1: Company Performance - Gap closed approximately 2,000 stores and saw annual sales decline by about $3.5 billion from fiscal 2001 to 2021 [1] - In fiscal 2024, Gap's overall sales grew by 1%, primarily driven by Old Navy, which accounts for over half of Gap's revenue [4] - The company has improved its profitability, achieving growth on the highest gross margins in the past 20 years [4] Group 2: Leadership and Strategy - CEO Richard Dickson, who previously revived the Barbie brand at Mattel, took over in 2023 and hired fashion designer Zac Posen as creative director [2] - Posen has contributed to Gap's cultural relevance by dressing celebrities for high-profile events, although his main focus is on Old Navy [3] - Gap has undertaken significant restructuring, including store closures and layoffs, to clean up its balance sheet and set a foundation for future growth [5][6] Group 3: Challenges and Market Conditions - Despite beating Wall Street's earnings expectations, Gap's stock fell 15% due to concerns over U.S. tariff policies, which could cost the company between $100 million and $150 million [7] - Banana Republic and Athleta are not experiencing the same level of same-store sales growth as Gap and Old Navy, indicating ongoing challenges for these brands [6]