Group 1: Mexico Security Crisis - The Mexican army killed Nemesio "El Mencho" Oseguera Cervantes, leader of the Jalisco New Generation Cartel (CJNG), during a military operation supported by U.S. intelligence [2][8] - The operation led to violent retaliation from cartel members across at least five Mexican states, prompting travel warnings from the UK and U.S. governments [3][8] - Analysts suggest that El Mencho's death may result in a power struggle within the CJNG, potentially destabilizing the region further in the short term [4] Group 2: Geopolitical Tensions - High-level nuclear negotiations between the U.S. and Iran are set to resume in Geneva, with the U.S. pushing for a "zero enrichment" deal amid heightened military presence in the region [5][6] - The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) is preparing to review Iran's nuclear facilities, which may impact global oil supply and regional stability [6] Group 3: Market Update - Fonterra Co-operative Group (FCG) ordinary shares will resume trading on the NZX Main Board after a trading halt due to a system error [7][9] - The resumption of trading coincides with Fonterra's significant divestment of the Mainland Group to Lactalis, targeting a tax-free capital return of approximately $3.2 billion [9]

Geopolitical Tensions - Geopolitical tensions have intensified significantly compared to the early 2010s, where financial recession was the primary concern [1] Investment Environment - The current geopolitical climate has influenced investment strategies, leading to a shift in focus for investors [1]

Core Viewpoint - The SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE:GLD) is experiencing a nearly 2% increase due to significant geopolitical tensions and economic policy changes, particularly following President Trump's announcement of a new 10% global tariff after a Supreme Court ruling against his previous tariff measures [1][2]. Geopolitical Tensions - The U.S. is escalating military presence in the Middle East with two aircraft carriers and additional military assets deployed, coinciding with Iran's joint naval drills with Russia and threats to strike hostile targets [3]. - Polymarket traders estimate a 76% probability of a U.S. strike on Iran by December, indicating heightened market concerns regarding geopolitical stability [3]. Gold Market Dynamics - Gold prices have surged from approximately $3,000 to over $5,000 per ounce in the past year, reflecting increased demand driven by geopolitical uncertainties and economic policies [3]. - Polymarket traders predict a 77% chance that gold will reach $5,500 by June 30, with a 38% chance of hitting $6,000, and lower probabilities for $7,000 and $10,000 by year-end [4]. - Goldman Sachs projects a year-end target of $5,400 for gold, attributing the rally to "insurance-type demand" [4]. Central Bank Activity - Central banks are accumulating gold at an unprecedented rate, particularly following the freeze of approximately $300 billion in Russian reserves, which is altering reserve managers' perspectives on gold as an asset [5]. - Wells Fargo has raised its year-end gold price target to between $6,100 and $6,300, while UBS suggests a potential extreme upside scenario of $7,200 if geopolitical tensions and dollar weakness intensify [5].

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - For Q4 2025, the company reported net sales of $131 million, a net loss of $10 million, and EBITDA of $20 million [4][8] - For the full year 2025, net sales were $606 million, with an operating income of $129 million and net income of $99 million, translating to $9.33 per common unit [8] - EBITDA for the full year was $211 million, with a distribution of $10.54 per common unit [5][8] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Total ammonia production for Q4 was 140,000 gross tons, with 62,000 net tons available for sale, and UAN production was 169,000 tons [9] - UAN sales volumes were lower due to planned turnaround and startup issues, but prices increased by approximately 55% compared to Q4 2024, while ammonia prices rose by approximately 32% [9] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company noted strong pricing for nitrogen fertilizers throughout Q4, despite lower production and sales volumes [5][9] - The USDA estimates a record crop year for 2025, with corn yields of nearly 187 bushels per acre on approximately 99 million acres planted [13] - U.S. inventory carryout levels for corn are expected to be above the 10-year average, while soybean levels are below [13] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on improving reliability and production rates through debottlenecking projects at both plants, aiming for utilization rates above 95% [16][17] - Plans include expanding DEF production and load-out capacity, and a feedstock diversification project at the Coffeyville facility [17] - The board has reserved capital for future projects, expecting to spend over the next two years [17] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed optimism about the spring planting season, anticipating strong demand for nitrogen fertilizers due to depleted soil nitrogen levels [13][30] - Geopolitical tensions and natural gas supply issues in Europe are seen as risks that could impact nitrogen fertilizer supplies [14][15] - The company expects ammonia utilization rates to be between 95% and 100% in Q1 2026, with direct operating expenses projected at $57 million to $62 million [11][12] Other Important Information - Direct operating expenses for Q4 2025 were $81 million, including $14 million in turnaround expenses [10] - The company ended the quarter with total liquidity of $117 million, consisting of $69 million in cash and $48 million available under the ABL facility [11] Q&A Session Summary Question: What are you seeing in terms of UAN imports? - Management noted a decrease in imports from Trinidad due to a plant being down, keeping the UAN market tight [22] Question: Is current deferred revenue down due to less product pre-sold? - Management clarified it was a timing issue, with more activity expected in January and February [25] Question: Will ammonia and UAN pricing increase sequentially heading into Q1 2026? - Management confirmed an uptick in prices based on the current book of business [26] Question: Is the air separator issue at Coffeyville resolved? - Management expressed confidence that issues have been addressed and is in discussions with the service provider for future operations [27][28] Question: How does acreage down for corn affect demand? - Management remains optimistic about demand due to nitrogen depletion in soil and supply constraints [29][30]

Group 1 - The Texas Capital Texas Oil Index ETF (OILT) has reached a 52-week high and is up 50.5% from its 52-week low price of $18.22 per share [1] - OILT provides exposure to companies involved in oil and gas extraction within Texas and charges 35 basis points in annual fees [2] - The rise in OILT's value is attributed to geopolitical tensions, particularly the risk of U.S. strikes on Iran and potential closures of the Strait of Hormuz, along with strong U.S. petroleum net exports and a shift from AI tech to undervalued energy stocks [3] Group 2 - OILT is expected to continue its strong performance in the near term, indicated by a positive weighted alpha of 20.87, suggesting potential for further gains [4]

Core Insights - Oil prices surged over 4% on February 18, 2026, following U.S. Vice President JD Vance's remarks about Iran's failure to meet U.S. demands in nuclear negotiations, with military action remaining a potential option if diplomacy fails [1] - The U.S. has increased its military presence in the Middle East, deploying aircraft carriers, indicating readiness for potential conflict [4] Geopolitical Tensions and Oil Supply - U.S. envoys held talks with Iranian officials, which were initially seen as constructive, leading to a temporary drop in oil prices [2] - However, sentiment shifted negatively after Vance's comments about Iran not addressing key U.S. concerns, coinciding with Iranian military exercises in the Strait of Hormuz, a vital route for global oil shipments [3] Impact on ETFs ETFs Likely to Gain - Energy sector ETFs, such as SPDR S&P Oil & Gas Exploration & Production ETF (XOP), are expected to benefit from rising oil prices due to reduced supplies, as oil exploration and production companies will likely increase output [5] - Norway's iShares MSCI Norway ETF (ENOR) is positioned to gain, as Norway is a major oil producer and exporter, with oil significantly contributing to its GDP [6] ETFs Likely to Lose - Retail sector ETFs, like SPDR S&P Retail ETF (XRT), are anticipated to suffer as rising energy prices will squeeze consumer spending power, leading to overall inflation [7] - The iShares India 50 ETF (INDY) may face challenges due to India's heavy reliance on oil imports, making it vulnerable to rising oil prices [8] - Airlines, represented by U.S. Global Jets ETF (JETS), are expected to underperform in a rising oil price environment, as energy costs constitute a significant portion of their overall expenses [11]

Naval Buildup and Military Options - The U.S. Navy has increased its presence in the Middle East and Eastern Mediterranean to 13 ships, including the USS Abraham Lincoln carrier strike group, enhancing military readiness [2][9] - President Trump has been briefed on military strike options against Iran, focusing on crippling its nuclear infrastructure while avoiding a prolonged ground war [3][9] Market Impact: Defense Sector - The potential for military action has led to increased investor interest in defense contractors such as Lockheed Martin, Northrop Grumman, and RTX Corporation, as the U.S. military repositions advanced assets [4][9] - Geopolitical developments are viewed as catalysts for sustained defense spending in the sector [4] Market Impact: Energy Sector - Crude oil prices have shown high volatility due to the potential disruption in the Strait of Hormuz, with energy companies like ExxonMobil and Chevron trading with heightened sensitivity to supply chain risks [5][9] Emerging Market Volatility - The Indonesian Rupiah has depreciated to 16,900 per dollar, driven by a flight to safety into the U.S. Dollar and concerns over regional war and global inflation [6][9] - Bank Indonesia may need to intervene as the currency approaches the 17,000 mark, impacting regional asset investors [7][9]

Group 1 - Gold prices advanced back above $4,900 an ounce after a two-day drop, with a rise of up to 2.7% in thin trading due to the Lunar New Year holiday [1] - January saw gold prices reach over $5,500 an ounce for the first time, but a significant drop occurred on January 29, marking the largest decline in over a decade [2] - Analysts noted that the recent volatility in gold prices has led to wider trading ranges, indicating a shift in market dynamics [2][3] Group 2 - Major banks, including BNP Paribas, Deutsche Bank, and Goldman Sachs, predict that gold prices will continue to rise, supported by ongoing geopolitical tensions and concerns regarding the Federal Reserve's independence [5] - Investors are closely monitoring comments from Federal Reserve officials for insights into US monetary policy, as potential rate cuts could benefit non-yielding assets like gold [6]

Core Insights - Gas and electricity prices remained elevated on average throughout the year due to geopolitical tensions and macroeconomic uncertainty [1] Group 1 - The increase in gas and electricity prices is attributed to ongoing geopolitical tensions [1] - Macroeconomic uncertainty has also contributed to the higher average prices of gas and electricity [1]

Market Overview - Gold prices remained stable at approximately $4,880 an ounce after experiencing a decline of over 3% in the previous two sessions due to a strengthening US dollar [1] - A significant rally had previously driven gold to an all-time high of over $5,595 an ounce in late January, but the market corrected sharply to nearly $4,400 within two sessions [2] Price Forecasts - Major banks such as BNP Paribas, Deutsche Bank, and Goldman Sachs predict that gold prices will resume an upward trend, supported by ongoing geopolitical tensions and a shift away from sovereign bonds and currencies [3] - Investors are closely monitoring comments from Federal Reserve officials for insights into US monetary policy, as potential interest rate cuts could benefit non-yielding precious metals like gold [4] Federal Reserve Insights - Fed Governor Michael Barr indicated that interest rates should remain steady until there is more evidence of inflation moving towards the central bank's 2% target [5] - Fed Bank of Chicago President Austan Goolsbee mentioned the possibility of further rate cuts this year if inflation continues to trend towards the target [5] Current Market Data - As of 8:51 a.m. in Singapore, spot gold was priced at $4,880.18 an ounce, while silver decreased by 1% to $72.83 an ounce. Platinum and palladium saw slight increases of 0.9% and 0.5%, respectively [6]