俄罗斯第二季度消费者信心指数升至-8，第一季度GDP同比增长1.4%。 ...

俄罗斯二季度消费者信心上升至-8。 ...

保持耐心、秉持诚心、坚定信心，坚定不移办好自己的事，以高质量发展的确定性应对各种不确定性， 中国经济定能在风雨中战胜挑战，拥抱绚烂彩虹 近日，义乌商户吕成均在接受本报记者采访时，有三句话令人印象深刻，也让人们从这位普通的商户身 上看到了中国经济运行的内在规律。 第一句话："超越波澜，相持之时尤需沉得住气。"全球经济浪潮风云变幻，科技革命和产业变革加速演 进，在每一次挑战与机遇面前，越来越多企业不为短期波动左右，潜心研发创造，因时因势调整突破， 以坚定创新发展应对外部环境的不确定性。"沉得住气"是对变局的一份淡定和从容，也体现了以变应变 的坚持和自信。在一手牵着210多万家"中国制造"企业，一手牵着230多个国家和地区的义乌，商户不仅 简单"卖全球"，更是以贸易促进产业跃升，坚定走品牌化发展道路，推动制造业向高附加值攀升；曾经 以外贸代工企业为主的东莞，如今活跃着7000多家机器人相关企业，全球动漫衍生品1/4产自东莞…… 洞察需求、潜心创新、耐心培育，中国经济在复杂多变的外部环境中稳健前行，在长期竞争中积蓄优 势。 第二句话："人无信不立。我们坚持长期主义，以恒心办恒业，不做一锤子买卖。""人无信不立"，今天 ...

美国房屋建筑商信心降至2022年以来的最低水平 金十数据6月17日讯，美国房屋建筑商的信心降至两年半以来的最低水平，对高抵押贷款利率和经济不 确定性的担忧占主导地位。数据显示，美国6月NAHB房产市场指数从5月的34降至6月的32，这一下降 使该指数进一步低于建筑商对"好"和"差"状况的看法之间的阈值50。NAHB表示，自2012年以来，该指 数只下降过两次：2022年12月以及2020年4月疫情大流行开始时。NAHB主席Buddy Hughes表示："由于 抵押贷款利率上升、关税和经济不确定性，买家越来越多地转向观望，而越来越多的建筑商则开始降 价。"NAHB首席经济学家Robert Dietz称："库存水平上升，潜在购房者在等待负担能力状况改善，这导 致大多数市场的价格增长疲软。"他补充称，NAHB目前预计今年独栋房屋开工率将下降。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. retail sales in May experienced the largest decline of the year, indicating a significant suppressive effect of the new tariff policy on consumer spending, particularly in the automotive sector [1][2]. Economic Data Summary - U.S. retail sales fell by 0.9% month-on-month in May, worse than the market expectation of a 0.6% decline, with the previous value revised down to -0.1% [2]. - Excluding automobiles, sales decreased by 0.3%, also below the expected increase of 0.2% [2]. - Among 13 categories, 7 saw a decline in sales, with building materials and motor vehicles experiencing the largest drops [2]. Consumer Behavior Insights - Consumers are systematically reducing spending after a prior surge driven by tariff-related purchasing [3]. - The restaurant and accommodation sectors, key indicators of service consumption, recorded the second-largest monthly decline of the year, reflecting a tightening in non-essential spending [2][3]. - A media survey indicated that 60% of American households have significantly cut back on discretionary spending due to concerns over economic downturn risks [3]. Sector Performance - In May, sales in home and garden centers dropped by 2.7%, electronics and appliance stores fell by 0.6%, and grocery stores decreased by 0.7% [4]. - Conversely, online retailers saw a sales increase of 0.9%, clothing stores grew by 0.8%, and furniture stores rose by 1.2% [4]. Future Economic Outlook - Historical trends suggest that price increases may be most pronounced in July, with the full impact of tariffs expected to gradually manifest later in the year, potentially suppressing real income growth [4][6]. - Despite the current decline in consumer confidence, stable inflation and low unemployment rates may support sustained consumer growth in the coming months [3].

Group 1 - U.S. retail sales declined for the second consecutive month in May, indicating a reduction in consumer spending due to concerns over tariffs and personal finances [1][2] - Retail sales fell by 0.9% month-over-month, marking the largest drop of the year, with significant declines in auto sales [1][2] - Seven out of thirteen retail categories experienced declines, with building materials, gasoline, and motor vehicle sales leading the downturn [2] Group 2 - The only service sector category in the retail report, restaurant and bar spending, saw the largest drop since the beginning of 2023 [2] - Despite a recent trade agreement between the U.S. and China, concerns over potential increases in auto tariffs persist, leading consumers to cut back on spending [3] - The "control group" sales, which exclude certain categories, increased by 0.4% month-over-month, driven by sales in sporting goods, furniture, and clothing [3]

Core Viewpoint - In May, U.S. retail sales experienced the largest decline of the year, indicating that new tariffs have suppressed consumer spending, particularly in the automotive sector [1] Group 1: Retail Sales Performance - Retail sales fell significantly, with 7 out of 13 categories reporting declines [1] - Spending at restaurants and bars saw its largest drop since the beginning of 2023 [1] Group 2: Consumer Behavior - The data suggests that consumers are beginning to cut back on spending [1] - Despite tariffs not yet increasing U.S. inflation, consumer confidence remains shaky due to rising living costs and high interest rates [1] - Household financial conditions have worsened [1]

宏观研究/[Table_Date] 2025.06.15 2025-06-17 美国：通胀预期回落，消费者信心回升 [Table_Authors] ——海外经济政策跟踪 本报告导读： 本周中东地区局势升级，带动原油、黄金为首的全球大宗商品价格普遍上涨，而美 元指数继续回落。尽管 5 月美国通胀数据较为温和，且市场交易层面和调查层面均 指向通胀预期有所回落，但在关税和地缘政治局势等不确定性因素持续发酵的影响 下，美国或仍面临滞胀风险。 投资要点： 风险提示：海外货币政策调整超预期，关税政策的不确定性。 券 研 究 报 告 证 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 宏 观 研 究 宏 观 周 报 [Table_Summary] 全球大类资产表现。本周（2025.6.6-2025.6.13），中东地区地缘冲突 影响下，大宗商品价格大幅上涨。其中，IPE 布油期货上涨 12.8%， 标普-高盛商品指数上涨 4.9%，伦敦金现上涨 3.7%。主要经济体股 市涨跌互现，其中美股下跌 0.4%，恒生指数和日经 225 分别上涨 0.4%和 0.2%。债市方面，10 年期美债收益率较前一周回落 10BP 至 4.41%，国内 1 ...

2025年6月17日 美国日报 (航运研究小组) | SCFIS、NCFI运价指数 | | | --- | --- | | 6月16日 | 6月13日 | | 上海出口集装箱结算运价指数SCFIS（欧洲航线）1697.63点，较上期上涨4.6% | 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI（综合指数）1536.84点，较上期下跌7.94% | | 上海出口集装箱结算运价指数SCFIS（美西航线）2908.68点，较上期上涨33.1% | 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI（欧洲航线）1307.92点，较上期上涨16.4% | | 6月13日 | 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI（美西航线）2230.99点，较上期下跌31.55% | | 上海出口集装箱运价指数SCFI公布价格2088.24点，较上期下跌152.11点 | 6月13日 | | 上海出口集装箱运价指数SCFI欧线价格1844USD/TEU，较上期上涨10.62% | 中国出口集装箱运价指数CCFI（综合指数）1243.05点，较上期上涨7.6% | | 上海出口集装箱运价指数SCFI美西航线4120USD/FEU，较上期下跌26.51% | 中国出口集装箱运价指 ...

Core Insights - The current Chinese venture capital market is at a turning point, characterized by both a cyclical bottoming and a deepening structural transformation, necessitating adaptability to capture opportunities amid uncertainty [1] - The 36Kr WAVES New Era 2025 conference gathered top investors, innovative entrepreneurs, and scholars to discuss cutting-edge topics such as AI innovation and globalization [1] Group 1: Historical Context - The dialogue featured insights from industry veteran Li Wei, who played a pivotal role in designing China's first convertible bond in 1992, marking a significant moment in the development of the capital market [3][4] - Li Wei emphasized the importance of understanding fundamental principles in entrepreneurship, drawing parallels between the design of convertible bonds and current venture capital practices [5][6] Group 2: Industry Evolution - The venture capital industry in China has experienced significant ups and downs over the past 30 years, with key phases including the initial excitement in the late 1990s and subsequent challenges in the early 2000s [9][10] - Li Wei identified three key phrases to describe the industry's journey: "ups and downs," "turning points," and "light at the end of the tunnel," reflecting the cyclical nature of the market [9] Group 3: Current Trends and Future Outlook - There is a growing confidence in the industry, driven by increased government maturity and a shift towards domestic technology development in response to global tech restrictions [11][12] - Li Wei noted that the recovery of the venture capital market is more about investor confidence than mere index performance, highlighting the need for a supportive environment for innovation [12][14] - The success of companies like DeepSeek illustrates the potential for software innovation to thrive despite hardware challenges, reinforcing optimism for China's tech future [20][21] Group 4: Policy Recommendations - Li Wei advocated for a more flexible approach to state-owned enterprises, suggesting that they should operate according to market principles to enhance efficiency and innovation [22][23] - The importance of nurturing a vibrant private sector was emphasized, with a call for other regions to learn from Zhejiang's focus on supporting private enterprises [21][22]