今天指数受消息的影响大幅高开，高开之后出现了一个渐次回落的这样的一个走势，然后到午后拉起来 了，那么怎么看待今天这样的走势？ 平均股价，我们说平均股价后来只上涨了0.37，那么今天最高的时候它涨了接近1.5个点，这涨的挺好， 微盘股这个到中午前还在创新高，但是午后回落的速度是非常快的，所以得出这样一个结论，后边可能 会大小要有一定的分化，后边可能大市值的东西走势是偏强的，那么前面尤其是这几天，小市值的股票 走的是非常的强，是不是？尤其这个我们看这个微盘股迭创新高，已经创出去年以来的新高，总体上维 持这么一个判断。那么上证指数这地方我认为这是一个非常正常的走势，我们说这个高开走低的假阴真 阳线也说明不了什么问题，毕竟把这个缺口补上了，还同时留下了一个向上的跳空缺口，这个缺口如果 三天不补，那么就形成了一个向上的岛型的跳空缺口，就有可能形成这种岛型反转。但是这个缺口要守 住，三天三天就可以。 所以说我们认为指数这地方走势呢还是十分正常的，不用太过于纠结，倒是要注意后边可能有一些大小 票啊或者是有一些板块的分化，可能要重点突出的一些品种，比如说科技呢也会有分化，包括最近有些 科技实际走的并不强，但是有些科技走的就强 ...

期货热点追踪 美元走势反转！从升值预期到全面贬值，背后隐藏着怎样的风险？ 相关链接 ...

Core Viewpoint - The market experienced a significant opening followed by a gradual decline, which is considered a normal market behavior after a high opening, indicating potential profit-taking by investors [1][2]. Market Performance - The average stock price increased by 0.37%, with a peak increase of nearly 1.5% during the day [2]. - The micro-cap stocks reached new highs before experiencing a rapid decline in the afternoon, suggesting a potential divergence in performance between large-cap and small-cap stocks [2][3]. Technical Analysis - The market left an upward gap that could indicate a potential island reversal if not filled within three days, with key price levels noted at 3324 and 3319 [3]. - A 60-minute analysis indicated a significant change in market dynamics, with a potential for upward movement that could eliminate current bearish signals [3]. Sector Insights - The banking sector, along with oil and other large-cap stocks, played a significant role in driving the market, particularly within the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 and CSI 300 indices [2]. - There is an expectation of sector differentiation, particularly within technology stocks, where some are expected to maintain strong performance while others may not [3].

Group 1 - The central bank has introduced 10 policies, while the financial regulatory bureau will launch 8 incremental policies, and the securities regulatory commission has announced four significant measures to promote long-term capital into the market [1][10] - A reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cut of 0.5 percentage points will provide 1 trillion yuan in liquidity [1] - The RRR for auto finance companies and financial leasing companies will be reduced from 5% to 0% [2] Group 2 - The 7-day OMO rate has been lowered by 0.1 percentage points, which is expected to lead to a similar decrease in the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) [3] - Structural monetary policy tool rates have been cut by 0.25 percentage points, and the personal housing provident fund loan rate has also been reduced by 0.25 percentage points [4] Group 3 - The quota for re-lending for technological innovation and technological transformation has been expanded from 500 billion yuan to 800 billion yuan [5] - A new 500 billion yuan re-lending facility for service consumption and elderly care has been established [6] - The re-lending quota for supporting agriculture and small enterprises has been increased by 300 billion yuan [7] Group 4 - The total quota for securities, funds, and insurance companies' swap convenience and stock repurchase increase re-lending has been merged to 800 billion yuan [7] - A risk-sharing tool for technological innovation bonds has been created [8] - The pilot scope for long-term investment by insurance funds will be further expanded, with an additional 60 billion yuan planned for approval [9] Group 5 - The policies announced are mostly in line with or slightly exceed expectations, as mentioned in the April Politburo meeting [10] - Despite the positive policies, the A-share market experienced a high open but low close, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.80% [11] Group 6 - The market's high open and low close can be attributed to three main reasons: policies meeting or slightly exceeding expectations, a different market environment compared to September 2024, and the current index level being higher than in September 2023 [12] - The Shanghai Composite Index shows a divergence in technical patterns, indicating potential upward movement if certain conditions are met [13] Group 7 - The military-related sectors, such as aerospace and shipbuilding, are leading the market, with a noted low allocation of active funds in these sectors during Q1 [15] - The military industry is expected to be resilient against "reciprocal tariffs" and is projected to see continued growth amid uncertain international conditions [15] Group 8 - The banking, insurance, oil, and large-cap stocks have performed well due to policy benefits [18] - The focus should be on blue-chip stocks if the island reversal pattern is confirmed, or on technology stocks if the market does not correct [18]

医药·掘金 年报一季报总结电话会议 20250504 摘要 • 医药行业在 2023 年和 2024 年面临增长放缓，预计营收增长率分别为 1%和-1%，利润增速分别为-20%和-13%，表明行业面临显著的下行压 力。 • 行业下滑的核心因素包括医保支付压力、行业秩序整顿、海外贸易不确定 性以及消费环境变化等多重因素叠加影响。 • 预计 2025 年医药板块将迎来反转，政策端已呈现缓和改善迹象，包括集 采优化、政府医保补助提升及商业医保目录扩容等积极因素。 • 医疗设备招标恢复、医疗反腐常态化以及中国创新药出海加速等因素，预 计将推动医药企业业绩改善，二三四季度业绩有望逐步好转。 • 投资策略上，重点关注创新药和左侧反转两大主线。创新药板块受益于高 景气度和对外授权，部分品种已在中国获批放量。 • 左侧反转领域，连锁药房（如益丰）、大型医疗服务公司及医疗设备招标 恢复预示着复苏机会，相关公司有望受益于基数降低带来的业绩提升。 • 建议关注科伦博泰生物、康方生物、信达生物、华东医药、石药集团等创 新药企，以及益丰连锁、人福医药、新产业生物、安图生物等左侧反转标 的。 Q&A 2024 年和 2025 年医药板块 ...

一、央妈放水的牛市！央行通过买断式逆回购向银行体系直接放水注入了1.2万亿的流动性！ 央行突然出手，搞了个1.2万亿元的买断式逆回购操作（3个月期8000亿+6个月期4000亿），直接创了年内单日投放的新高。这一招不仅缓解了节后资金面的 压力，还给市场传递了一个强烈的"稳增长"信号。 资金充裕是股市上涨的关键。市场上钱多了，投资者自然更愿意把钱投到股市里，推动市场往上走。金融股是A股市场的重要板块，要是金融股的估值能修 复，就能带动整个市场的估值提升，形成"戴维斯双击"效应，也就是盈利增长和估值提升一起推动指数上涨。 如果高开幅度太大，得小心高开低走，有人兑现利润。我更希望是小幅红开，然后一路震荡走强，收盘时是放量中阳形态。要是能补缺口，那就太完美了， 基本可以确定大盘要开始新一轮上攻了。 不过，要是市场没有补上成交量，未来几天可能还有补缺的预期。后续说不定还能强势震荡几天，这是比较理想的走势。要是不理想，高开低走，继续缩量 震荡，变盘失败，那就得再等下一个变盘节点了。 二、明天A股市场开市大概率是高开了。 撰稿、收集数据不易，觉得有帮助的朋友可以点击关注、分享♝、点赞，支持一下，谢谢！也可点击收藏，方便日后 ...

金融工程 | 金工定期报告 2025 年 05 月 05 日 作者 吴先兴 分析师 SAC 执业证书编号：S1110516120001 wuxianxing@tfzq.com 相关报告 风险提示：市场环境变动风险，模型基于历史数据。 1 《金融工程：金融工程-因子跟踪周 报 ： Beta 、换手率因子表现较好 -20250504》 2025-05-04 2 《金融工程：金融工程-哪些行业进 入高估区域？——估值与基金重仓股配 置监控 2025-05-03》 2025-05-03 3 《金融工程：金融工程-净利润断层 本周超额基准 0.92%》 2025-05-03 金融工程 证券研究报告 量化择时周报：突破压力位前保持中性 突破压力位前保持中性 上周周报(20250427)认为：全 A 指数的 30 日均线构成压力位，但考虑到估 值不高，建议在压力位突破前维持中性仓位。最终 wind 全 A 维持原状。 市值维度上，上周代表小市值股票的中证 2000 上涨 0.84%，中盘股中证 500 上涨 0.08%，沪深 300 下跌 0.43%，上证 50 下跌 0.59%;上周中信一级行业中， 表现较强行业包括传媒 ...

金融工程 | 金工定期报告 2025 年 05 月 05 日 作者 吴先兴 分析师 SAC 执业证书编号：S1110516120001 wuxianxing@tfzq.com 相关报告 1 《金融工程：金融工程-因子跟踪周 报 ： Beta 、换手率因子表现较好 -20250504》 2025-05-04 2 《金融工程：金融工程-哪些行业进 入高估区域？——估值与基金重仓股配 置监控 2025-05-03》 2025-05-03 3 《金融工程：金融工程-净利润断层 本周超额基准 0.92%》 2025-05-03 金融工程 证券研究报告 量化择时周报：突破压力位前保持中性 突破压力位前保持中性 上周周报(20250427)认为：全 A 指数的 30 日均线构成压力位，但考虑到估 值不高，建议在压力位突破前维持中性仓位。最终 wind 全 A 维持原状。 市值维度上，上周代表小市值股票的中证 2000 上涨 0.84%，中盘股中证 500 上涨 0.08%，沪深 300 下跌 0.43%，上证 50 下跌 0.59%;上周中信一级行业中， 表现较强行业包括传媒、计算机，传媒上涨 2.86%，综合金融、房地产 ...

一、本周指数增强组合表现 沪深300指数增强组合本周超额收益-1.26%，本年超额收益1.88%。 中证500指数增强组合本周超额收益-0.50%，本年超额收益3.40%。 中证1000指数增强组合本周超额收益-0.78%，本年超额收益4.40%。 中证A500指数增强组合本周超额收益-0.22%，本年超额收益4.88%。 二、本周选股因子表现跟踪 沪深300成分股中一年动量、一个月反转、DELTAROE等因子表现较好。 中证500成分股中一个月反转、SPTTM、高管薪酬等因子表现较好。 中证1000成分股中非流动性冲击、3个月盈利上下调、预期净利润环比等因 子表现较好。 中证A500成分股中一个月反转、一年动量、高管薪酬等因子表现较好。 公募基金重仓股中一年动量、DELTAROA、特异度等因子表现较好。 三、本周公募基金指数增强产品表现跟踪 沪深300指数增强产品本周超额收益最高0.44%，最低-0.66%，中位 数-0.06%。 中证500指数增强产品本周超额收益最高0.48%，最低-1.30%，中位 数-0.35%。 中证1000指数增强产品本周超额收益最高1.09%，最低-0.82%，中位 数-0.0 ...

Group 1 - The central bank has conducted significant liquidity injections, including a 530.8 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation and a net injection of 422.8 billion yuan, indicating a strong effort to stabilize the market [1] - The market is expected to experience a potential rebound around mid-year, with the Shanghai Composite Index showing resilience despite slight fluctuations [3] - Concerns exist regarding the current market dynamics, as the index is facing pressure from the 30-day moving average, suggesting a cautious outlook for individual stocks, particularly in the semiconductor and technology sectors [5] Group 2 - The brokerage sector has shown a rebound, positively influencing market sentiment, with small-cap stocks gaining attention as funds shift from large to small caps [7] - The trading volume has increased despite expectations of low activity, indicating that investors are positioning for potential market gains following the holiday [7]