国务院近日召开的做强国内大循环工作推进会提出，结合现阶段我国发展实际，做强国内大循环重点要 体现在四个方面，其中之一是产业链供应链的自主完备，发挥各地优势加强专业化分工、地区间协作， 持续补链强链拓链，增强产业发展韧性。当前，无论是面对"卡脖子"困境的现实挑战，还是立足塑造中 国制造新优势的长远考虑，提升产业链供应链韧性已非选择题，而是必答题。 产业链供应链自主完备强调的是安全可控。产业链、供应链在关键时刻不能"掉链子"，这是大国经济必 须具备的重要特征。产业链供应链自主完备是指在核心技术、零部件、产品等供应受限的情况下，能够 依靠国内稳定运行的产业链供应链提供相应产品和服务，满足国民经济运转的基本需要。其核心目标是 构建内外部风险冲击下仍能维持高效运转的经济体系。 产业链供应链自主完备，是做强国内大循环的重要一环。从生产端看，自主完备的产业链供应链能保障 原材料、设备、技术等要素稳定供给，避免断链风险干扰企业生产。从消费端看，产业链供应链安全稳 定才能持续提供多样化、高品质的产品，激发居民消费意愿。更进一步看，自主完备的产业链供应链能 推动产业链与创新链深度融合，推动产业链价值链向高端攀升，提升供给体系对国 ...

当前主要酒企渠道库存已降至合理水平，随着政策不断发力和消费场景改善，白酒需求温和恢复。大众 品方面，黄酒消费热度渐起，啤酒消费进入旺季，乳业上游供给端原奶价格企稳，休闲零食、能量饮料 等细分赛道景气度高增。且食品饮料公司分红意愿较强，预计行业整体分红率在茅台、五粮液等标杆公 司的带领下仍可进一步提升。 食品饮料ETF(515170)跟踪中证细分食品饮料产业主题指数，聚焦白酒、饮料乳品、调味发酵品等高壁 垒、强韧性板块，前十大成分股囊括"茅五泸汾洋"，帮助投资者一键配置"吃喝板块"核心资产。相较于 其成分股动辄数万、数十万的最低投资门槛，食品饮料ETF是小资金参与板块投资的便捷工具。(联接A 类：013125；联接C类：013126)。 中长期内，政策层面持续强化"国内大循环"战略支点，通过消费补贴、税收优惠等精准施策，推动内需 结构升级。当前政策注重"外需缓和期"与"内需培育期"的衔接，若未来美方关税政策出现反复，政策可 快速启动，对冲外部影响。这种"短期纾困+中期转型"的政策组合，标志着我国正加速构建更具韧性的 经济发展体系。 周三A股窄幅整理，可控核聚变、新消费题材持续发酵。截至收盘，上证指数跌0.02% ...

Group 1 - The article emphasizes the importance of balancing investment and consumption to stimulate economic growth, suggesting that the current focus should be on promoting consumption due to various economic conditions [1][8] - It highlights the long-standing issues in China's domestic economic circulation, such as overcapacity in certain industries and insufficient effective demand, which have persisted since 2012 [2][5] - The article notes that the contribution of final consumption to GDP in China is below 40%, compared to over 50% in many other countries, indicating a need for policies that enhance household disposable income [9][10] Group 2 - The article discusses the structural issues in fiscal spending, where approximately 85% of expenditures are concentrated at the local government level, limiting the central government's macroeconomic control [14][17] - It suggests that local governments are incentivized to focus on investment due to performance evaluations based on GDP growth, which may lead to overinvestment in certain sectors and exacerbate capacity issues [14][15] - The article proposes that improving the income distribution structure and increasing the disposable income of lower-income groups could significantly boost consumption [10][11] Group 3 - The article addresses the demographic challenges posed by an aging population, predicting a decline in total population by 2027 and emphasizing the need for adjustments in fiscal policy to support this demographic shift [18][21] - It points out that as the population ages, the contribution of consumption to GDP is expected to increase, necessitating a focus on enhancing investment efficiency and consumption multiplier effects [21][22] - The article highlights the importance of aligning infrastructure investment with population migration trends to optimize resource allocation and improve economic efficiency [24][25]

"系列稳增长政策强力支持是重要原因。"国务院发展研究中心宏观经济研究部研究员张立群说。 记者注意到，针对外部形势变化，4月18日召开的国务院常务会议研究稳就业稳经济推动高质量发展的 若干举措。会议指出，锚定经济社会发展目标，加大逆周期调节力度，着力稳就业稳外贸，着力促消费 扩内需，着力优结构提质量，做强国内大循环，推动经济高质量发展。特别是在稳定外贸外资发展方 面，会议提出，要"一业一策、一企一策加大支持力度，支持外资企业境内再投资"。 4月份以来，各地区、各部门落实党中央、国务院决策部署，强化对外贸企业的支持，加大出口退税、 金融支持、贸易便利化等政策力度，为外贸发展创造了良好政策环境。 此外，今年以来，"两重"建设、"两新"政策效果不断显现，产业升级发展向好，新动能持续发展壮大， 也为工业企业效益恢复提供了有利条件。 从与企业利润密切相关的"量、价、利润率"三要素的表现来看，温彬注意到，1至4月份，在总量方面， 全国规上工业增加值同比增长6.4%，较1至3月回落0.1个百分点；在价格方面，全国PPI（工业生产者出 厂价格指数）同比下降2.4%，降幅较1至3月扩大0.1个百分点；规上工业企业营收利润率则较1 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent implementation of the "Implementation Opinions on High-Level Construction of 'Shipping Zhejiang'" highlights the strategic push for the construction of the Zhejiang-Jiangxi Canal, which is part of a broader initiative to enhance inland waterway transportation across China, marking the onset of a "new canal era" in the country [2][18][22]. Investment and Economic Impact - A total of over 850 billion yuan is being invested across at least eight provinces to revive inland waterway transport, with the Zhejiang-Jiangxi-Guangdong Canal alone projected to cost 320 billion yuan, surpassing the Grand Canal to become the world's longest canal [2][18]. - The construction of these canals is expected to significantly reduce transportation costs, with water transport costing only half of rail transport, one-fifth of road transport, and one-twentieth of air transport [7][21]. Project Details - The Zhejiang-Jiangxi Canal will span approximately 760 kilometers, connecting key cities in Zhejiang and Jiangxi provinces, and is seen as a monumental water transport project [1][5]. - Other notable projects include the Xianggui Canal with an investment of 150 billion yuan, the Jianghuai Canal at 95 billion yuan, and the Jinghan Canal at 74.8 billion yuan, all aimed at enhancing connectivity and economic integration [2][10]. Historical Context and Future Prospects - Historical examples, such as the Suez Canal and the Grand Canal, illustrate the transformative power of major waterway projects in reshaping trade and economic dynamics [3][4]. - The successful completion of these canal projects is anticipated to create a comprehensive water transport network across China, facilitating economic growth and regional development [22][23]. Strategic Importance - The push for canal construction is part of a broader strategy to strengthen domestic circulation and address bottlenecks in the logistics and transportation system, which currently sees a logistics cost-to-GDP ratio of 14.1% [19][20]. - The development of these canals is viewed as a critical step in establishing a robust inland waterway system that can support China's economic ambitions and enhance regional connectivity [21][22].

从债券市场看，泓德基金指出，上周债券市场整体震荡，长债表现略好于短债。信用债收益率整体下 行，中短端下行幅度小于长端。二级市场上，利率债总体震荡。此前的10BP降息、而后的银行存款利 率挂牌价下调等等，对市场的影响均不大。后续观察税期过后、供应缓和后，资金供应变化。 上周国内权益市场以震荡为主，主要宽基指数周涨跌幅在1%以内，日均成交量维持在1.1万亿元附近， 北证50指数在突破1500点创出了历史新高后出现了明显的调整。行业板块方面，A股科技成长边际走 弱，港股创新药板块表现亮眼。 泓德基金表示，近年来，我国在创新药领域快速发展，国际市场占有率不断提升。根据数据显示，截至 2024年年末，中国企业研发的活跃创新药数量已达到3575个，位居全球首位。2024年大型跨国药企引进 的创新药候选分子大约有31%来自中国，而2019年这一数字还为0。 5月19日，国家统计局发布了4月份国民经济运行情况，我国经济顶住外部冲击压力稳定增长，延续向新 向好态势。泓德基金分析，从优势领域观察，我国产业高端化发展态势明显，4月份，规模以上高技术 制造业增加值增长10%。智能化、绿色化转型提速，新能源产业发展态势较好；智能产品生 ...

Economic Overview - In April, China's major economic indicators showed stable and relatively fast growth, continuing a positive trend despite facing severe challenges from complex international environments and external shocks [2][3][4] - The overall economic recovery foundation remains unstable, necessitating increased counter-cyclical adjustments in macroeconomic policies and expanded government investment in public goods to stimulate production and employment [2][3][4] Production and Supply - In April, the industrial added value for large-scale enterprises grew by 6.1% year-on-year, while the service production index increased by 6.0%, indicating a relatively fast pace of growth [4][5] - However, both production and supply growth showed signs of slowing down compared to March, primarily due to a market condition of oversupply leading to declining prices, with the Producer Price Index (PPI) falling by 2.7% year-on-year [4][5][6] Domestic Demand - Domestic demand expanded steadily in April, with retail sales of consumer goods increasing by 5.1% year-on-year, supported by policies encouraging the replacement of old consumer goods [5][6] - The total import and export volume reached 38,391 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.6%, although export growth showed a significant decline compared to March [5][6] Investment Trends - Investment growth showed a slight decline, with cumulative year-on-year growth at 4%, and manufacturing investment growth at 8.8%, both lower than the previous quarter [5][6] - Real estate investment continued to decline, with a cumulative year-on-year decrease of 10.3%, indicating a worsening trend [5][6] Policy Recommendations - To effectively stimulate market confidence and unleash domestic demand potential, it is crucial to enhance the government's counter-cyclical policy measures and significantly increase public investment [6][7] - The focus should be on improving the quality of public goods and expanding investment to drive production, employment, and income growth, thereby activating the vast domestic demand market [6][7]

Group 1 - China's economy achieved expected goals and tasks in 2024, with significant progress in high-quality development despite various uncertainties [1] - The government aims to boost consumption and expand domestic demand as the primary driver of economic growth, especially in response to weak external demand [1][2] - The reliance of China's economy on foreign trade is relatively low, with exports accounting for only 18.9% of GDP in 2024, compared to 34.9% in 2006 [1] Group 2 - China is accelerating the construction of a new development pattern focused on domestic circulation, with strong growth in sectors like artificial intelligence, new energy, and high-end equipment manufacturing [2] - Breakthroughs in generative AI and intelligent driving indicate China's leading position in these fields, supported by a large domestic market and engineering talent [2] - The advancements in technology are expected to lead to a wave of high-quality enterprises with core competitiveness in the global market [2]

服务消费领域同样成为银行发力重点。河南淅川农商银行与当地文旅部门协同创新，搭建"智慧旅游"综 合服务平台，同时推出低利率特色信贷产品，既为旅游从业者提供资金支持，又以优惠利率吸引游客消 费；广发银行依托信用卡业务，聚焦"吃住行游购娱"等旅游消费场景，推出景区门票折扣、餐饮满减等 系列优惠活动，点燃线下消费热情。 5月15日，国务院召开做强国内大循环工作推进会（以下简称"会议"）。会议指出，要围绕加快构建新 发展格局，把做强国内大循环摆到更加突出的位置，统筹实施扩大内需战略和深化供给侧结构性改革， 不断提升经济循环的质量和层次，促进国内市场和国际市场高效联通，以国内大循环更好牵引国际循 环。 近年来，银行业聚焦提振消费、赋能地方特色资源品牌建设等领域，多维度探索服务国内大循环的创新 路径，为经济高质量发展注入强劲金融动能。 深挖消费潜力 激活内需增长新动能 消费是畅通国内大循环的关键环节。银行业精准锚定大宗消费与服务消费两大赛道，通过创新金融产 品、优化服务模式、搭建消费场景等方式，持续释放消费活力。 在大宗耐用消费品领域，多家银行以灵活多元的信贷服务撬动市场潜力。中信银行与头部新能源汽车品 牌深化战略合作，推 ...

Core Viewpoint - The banking sector plays a crucial role in promoting domestic economic circulation and is tasked with providing financial support to both emerging and traditional industries, thereby driving economic growth [1][3]. Group 1: Support for Emerging Industries - Banks should actively innovate financial products and services to provide stable long-term funding for emerging industries such as artificial intelligence and renewable energy, helping them overcome technological bottlenecks and facilitating their industrialization [1]. - Establishing diversified technology financial service models, including intellectual property pledge loans, is essential for supporting enterprises and promoting the transformation and application of technological achievements [1]. Group 2: Support for Traditional Industries - Increased funding for upgrading and transforming traditional manufacturing projects is necessary, focusing on technological upgrades, equipment renewal, and digital transformation to enhance competitiveness [1]. - Banks are encouraged to strengthen credit support for small and micro enterprises to alleviate their financing difficulties, thereby solidifying the foundation for domestic economic circulation [1]. Group 3: Strengthening Supply Chain Stability - Banks are responsible for providing comprehensive financial services to key areas and critical links in the industrial supply chain, ensuring stability and self-sufficiency [2]. - Support for core enterprises is vital to enhance their integration capabilities and collaborative effects within the supply chain, using supply chain financial products to promote the development of upstream and downstream small and medium enterprises [2]. Group 4: Promoting Consumption - Banks should optimize consumer financial products and services, developing personalized and diversified consumer credit products to meet the varied consumption needs of residents and unleash consumption potential [2]. - Collaborating with e-commerce platforms and offline retail enterprises to promote consumption scenarios and new business models is essential for enhancing service consumption [2]. Group 5: Overall Economic Strategy - The banking sector's efforts to support domestic economic circulation align with national strategic responsibilities and are essential for the sector's sustainable development [3]. - By optimizing service models and innovating financial products, banks can provide precise support for emerging industries, empower traditional industries, and promote overall economic stability and growth [3].