交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 豆粕早报 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 近期要闻 2025-07-10 大越期货投资咨询部：王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询资格证号：Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 3 多空关注 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 ✸豆粕观点和策略 1.基本面：美豆震荡回落，美豆生长天气良好丰产预期压制盘面，美豆短期千点关口上方震 荡等待中美关税谈判后续和美国大豆产区生长天气进一步指引。国内豆粕探底回升，美 豆带动和技术性震荡整理，6月进口大豆到港增多和现货价格弱势压制盘面，短期回归区 间震荡格局。中性 2.基差：现货2780（华东），基差-167，贴水期货。偏空 3.库存：油厂豆粕库存82.24万吨，上周69.16万吨，环比增加18.91%，去年同期108.27万吨， 同比减少34.32%。偏多 4.盘面：价格在20日均线下方且方向向下。偏空 ...

[Table_Invest]增持 [Table_Info1] 中广核矿业(01164.HK) 建筑材料 [Table_Date] 发布时间：2025-07-10 [Table_Title] 证券研究报告 / 港股公司报告 稀缺海外铀资源平台，受益铀价上行 中广核集团海外铀资源平台。公司是中国第一、全球第三大的核电集 团中广核集团下属上市子公司之一，亦是中广核集团旗下海外铀资源 开发的投、融资的唯一平台。中广核矿业是香港主板上市产量最大的 铀业集团，同时也是东亚目前唯一的纯铀业上市公司，主要业务为核 能企业使用的天然铀资源的开发与贸易。公司将抓住全球核电复苏和 天然铀需求持续增长的机遇，获取强成本竞争力的铀资源项目，致力 于成为国际一流的天然铀供应商。2024 年，公司权益资源量 3.4 万 tU， 权益产量 1324tU，全年实现营收 86.2 亿港元，净利润 3.4 亿港元。 已签订 2026~2028 关联交易合同，预期受益铀价上行。公司 6 月 3 日 公告，与中广核铀业签订销售框架协议，期限覆盖 2026 年~2028 年； 据框架协议，中广核铀业每年采购不低于 1200t 天然铀，每磅定价机 制为 ...

Group 1 - Natural gas and hydrogen concepts saw significant movement, with Thopu Co. hitting a 20% limit up [6] - Multiple financial sectors strengthened, with Nanhua Futures achieving consecutive gains and Yuexiu Capital rising over 5% [3] - Northern Rare Earth opened nearly 8% higher, expecting a net profit increase of 1883% year-on-year to 2.015 billion [3] Group 2 - The Hong Kong stock market experienced slight fluctuations, with the Hang Seng Index turning upward while the Hang Seng Tech Index saw a minor decline [4] - The stock of Juxing Legend continued to rise, gaining over 18% following news of Jay Chou's Douyin account surpassing 10 million followers [5] Group 3 - Green hydrogen projects are expected to see increased commencement rates due to falling electricity prices, rising carbon prices, policy support, and growth in green fuel orders [8] - The photovoltaic sector remained active, with Tuo Ri New Energy achieving three consecutive limits up and Huaguang Huaneng reaching six consecutive limits up [9] Group 4 - President Trump announced a 50% tariff on imported copper effective August 1, 2025, which could significantly impact various sectors of the U.S. economy [10] - Copper, the third most consumed metal globally, is primarily imported from Chile, and the tariff may lead to increased costs across multiple industries [11] - Following the tariff announcement, copper futures prices surged, reaching a record high with a 17% intraday increase [12]

Economic Growth and Development - The "14th Five-Year Plan" aims for significant economic growth, with an expected economic increment of over 35 trillion yuan during the five years, equivalent to recreating the Yangtze River Delta [8][10] - By 2025, the total economic output is projected to reach approximately 140 trillion yuan, contributing around 30% to global economic growth annually, with an average growth rate of 5.5% over the first four years [10] Innovation and R&D - During the "14th Five-Year Plan," R&D investment is expected to increase by nearly 50% compared to the end of the "13th Five-Year Plan," reaching an increment of 1.2 trillion yuan [15] - China has established 26 of the world's top 100 technology innovation clusters, leading globally, with over 460,000 high-tech enterprises [15] Green Development - China has achieved the highest global increase in forest coverage, with the forest coverage rate exceeding 25%, and the newly added forest area equivalent to the size of Shaanxi Province [24] - The air quality has improved, with the proportion of days with good air quality stabilizing at around 87%, a 3% increase from the "13th Five-Year Plan" period [24] Agricultural Development - Over 1 billion mu of high-standard farmland has been established, equivalent to the total land area of the top two grain-producing provinces, Heilongjiang and Henan [29] Infrastructure and Logistics - The construction of the national comprehensive transportation network has exceeded 90% completion, covering over 80% of counties and serving approximately 90% of the economy and population [34] - Logistics costs are projected to save over 4 billion yuan in 2024 and an additional 3 billion yuan in 2025 [34]

海南日报海口7月9日讯(海南日报全媒体记者刘冀冀 实习生郑如雪 通讯员李佳琪)7月9日，"文昌是 个好地方，邀您留一夏"2025年文昌夏季特色文旅活动新闻发布会在海南省新闻发布厅举办。记者从会 上获悉，今年暑期，文昌启动"航天+旅游""排球+旅游""节赛+旅游"三大引擎，用火箭升空的震撼、村 排赛场的激情和青春音乐的热力，让游客在文昌"赏一城风物、品一夏烟火"，感受消夏狂欢。 2025年文昌启动夏季特色文旅活动，邀您"留一夏"—— 追火箭 看"村VA"赏音乐 8月中旬，"向阳花开，少年追箭!"海南文昌航天明星公益演唱会将唱响文昌，现场，摇滚歌手谢天 笑将领衔百人乐队，为歌迷带来一场夏日视听盛宴。 由文昌市人民政府联合海南日报报业集团精心策划的海南"村VA"连续举办三届，已成为乡村排球 赛事品牌IP，累计吸引现场观众超120万人次，全网曝光量突破13亿次，旅游综合收入超5亿元，在全省 乃至全国火爆出圈。 今年赛事迎来全面升级，参赛队伍增至32支，覆盖海南省11个市县，68场精彩对决展现"全民排 球"的独特魅力。今年首推"外援机制"，将举办"大地流彩·和美乡村"全国"村VA"邀请赛。 今年8月，文昌将举办一系列全 ...

Group 1 - The A-share aerospace and aviation sector experienced a decline at the beginning of trading, with Morningstar Aviation dropping over 6% [1] - Other stocks in the sector, including Hengyu Xintong, Jialiqi, Shengnan Technology, and Xinyu Guoke, also saw declines [1]

不知道大家有没有发现一个问题，这些年好像类似全球变暖的话题很少了？ 我甚至看到有不少人在那里说"气候变暖"本身是个骗局。其实稍微了解相关论文和研究结果，就知道不但不是骗局，而 且"全球变暖"这事已经彻底变成了现实。 现在主流学界普遍的观点是：气候已经大幅变暖，并且在加速变得更暖，由此产生的极端气候也在变多。 我看不少人说"气候变暖"这东西有争议，因为地球本来就是每隔一些年变暖，一些年变冷，这也是为啥河南的简称 叫"豫"，因为以前温暖的时候有大象。 也就是说，可能气候变暖并不是人类导致的，而是自然节律的一部分。 其实在科学界争议并不大，科学界压倒性的共识是，人类活动导致温室气体暴涨。包括NASA、NOAA、英国气象局、中 国气象局等200余家机构一致确认全球变暖由人类活动主导。当前升温速度是地球自然变暖的50倍，这个几乎没啥争议。 温室气体排放，就是人类排放出来的二氧化碳和甲烷，这些气体跟个罩子似的扣在地球上，可以防止热量辐射到太空， 然后地球越来越热。 这就衍生出来三个问题： 1. 为啥会这样？ 2. 全球变暖为啥会导致极端气候？ 3. 有啥影响？ 咱们一个一个讲，首先第一个问题，气候变暖的原因是啥？ 工业排 ...

一是研发投入加速增长。从整体看，2024年全社会研发经费投入占GDP的比重达到2.68%，规模增 加到3.6万亿元，稳居全球第二。从主体看，企业是研发投入高增长的主要力量，企业研发投入占比超 过77%。从标杆看，深圳作为创新标杆城市，研发投入占GDP的比重达到6.46%。 二是关键核心技术攻关加速突破。比如，2024年集成电路年产量比"十三五"末增长72.6%，增加约 1900亿块，越来越多的产品装上了"中国芯"；核电、高铁、船舶与海洋工程等装备取得新突破，人工智 能、量子科技、载人航天、深空探测等领域创造了多个全球"首次"和"第一"。 三是新兴产业加速壮大。比如，2024年我国高技术制造业增加值比"十三五"末增长42%，数字经济 核心产业增加值增长73.8%，占GDP比重达到10.4%，提高2.6个百分点。又比如，2024年我国累计在研 创新药达到4000余款，约占全球30%。 四是人才创新活力加速迸发。我国人力资源总量、科技人力资源总量、研发人员总量世界第一，科 学、技术、工程、数学专业毕业生每年超过500万。人才储备为技术突破提供了坚实基础，成为创新活 动的源头活水。 原标题：我国持续推动创新势能向经济 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the impact of Typhoon "Danas" on weather conditions in southern and northern regions of China, with strong rainfall expected in the south and hot, humid weather in the north [1] Group 2 - The article states that from July 10 to July 12, the remnants of Typhoon "Danas" will continue to cause heavy rainfall in southern regions, particularly in areas like Fujian and Guangdong, where localized heavy rain is anticipated [1] - It mentions the need for precautions against secondary disasters that may arise from the heavy rainfall [1] - As "Danas" moves inland, high temperatures in the southern regions will decrease, while northern regions, influenced by subtropical high pressure, will experience hot and humid weather, particularly in Shandong and Henan [1]

Core Viewpoint - The company anticipates a mixed performance for the first half of 2025, with revenue expected to range from 3.46 to 3.76 billion yuan, while net profit is projected to significantly increase year-on-year, indicating a strong recovery in its core business segments [1][2] Group 1: Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, the company expects revenue between 3.46 billion and 3.76 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year change of -0.89% to +7.71% [1] - The projected net profit for the same period is estimated to be between 202 million and 232 million yuan, showing a substantial year-on-year increase of 102.33% to 132.38% [1] - In Q2 2025, the company anticipates revenue of 1.744 billion to 2.044 billion yuan, with a year-on-year change of -0.9% to +16.2% [1] Group 2: Business Segments - The cottonseed business is expected to recover profitability in the short term, while the plant extraction business shows positive long-term trends [1] - The company has implemented a strict lock-in operating model for its cottonseed business, which has led to a turnaround in profitability [1] - The plant extraction segment, particularly products like chili red and stevia glycosides, has seen a year-on-year increase in gross profit, indicating a favorable trend [1] Group 3: Market Outlook - The company is positioned to benefit from the FDA's plan to phase out petroleum-based synthetic food colorings by the end of 2026, which is expected to increase demand for natural colorants [1] - The prices of several plant extraction products are currently at relatively low levels, suggesting potential for stabilization and improvement [1] - The company aims to leverage its low-cost industrial production capabilities to efficiently replicate its successful multi-product development model [2] Group 4: Profit Forecast and Investment Rating - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 376 million, 493 million, and 604 million yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, representing year-on-year growth rates of 299%, 31%, and 23% respectively [2] - The company has been upgraded to a "strongly recommended" rating based on its leading position in the plant extraction industry and its strategic growth plans [2]