期货研究报告 | 农产品组 行业研究报告 当前中美达成框架协议，但关税细节仍未公布，宏观不确定性仍存。25/26 年度全球棉花供需仍偏宽松，美棉新年度平衡表预计改 善有限，ICE 美棉预计下半年维持震荡运行，但仍需关注后续各主产国天气及贸易政策变化。国内郑棉在库存偏紧预期影响下短期 走势偏强，但新年度疆棉预期丰产，贸易战令需求也难有爬升，新棉集中上市后棉价压力较大…… 丰产预期压制，关注宏观扰动 农产品组行业研究报告 本期分析研究员 邓绍瑞 从业资格号：F3047125 投资咨询号：Z0015474 李馨 从业资格号：F03120775 投资咨询号：Z0019724 联系人 白旭宇 从业资格号：F03114139 薛钧元 从业资格号：F03114096 华泰期货研究院农产品研究 2025 年 7 月 6 日 期货研究报告 | 棉花半年报 2025-7-6 丰产预期压制，关注宏观扰动 研究院 农产品组 研究员 邓绍瑞 010-64405663 dengshaorui@htfc.com 从业资格号：F3047125 投资咨询号：Z0015474 李馨 lixin@htfc.com 从业资格号：F03120775 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the robust performance of Shanghai's real estate market, with a significant portion of newly auctioned residential land already under construction, indicating strong demand and investor confidence [1][4][5] - In the first half of 2025, 15 out of 19 publicly auctioned residential land parcels in Shanghai were sold at a premium, with 7 parcels exceeding a 30% premium rate, showcasing the competitive nature of the land market [1][5] - The land auction results reflect a strategic alignment with urban development goals, emphasizing the importance of planning and resource allocation to enhance living quality and economic growth [2][3] Group 2 - The supply of land is being managed to stabilize market expectations, with a high frequency of land auctions allowing more companies to participate and maintain market heat [3][5] - The introduction of the "good housing" standard by the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development is influencing land auction strategies, ensuring that new developments meet quality expectations [3][4] - The diverse participation of various enterprises, including state-owned, private, and foreign companies, in the land market indicates a recovering investment sentiment and a favorable business environment in Shanghai [5][6]

Core Insights - The pistachio market has experienced significant fluctuations, initially gaining popularity due to a viral chocolate product but later facing challenges from trade policies and environmental factors [1][2][4][5] Market Overview - The global pistachio market is dominated by three main producers: the United States (approximately 45% market share), Iran (about 35%), and Turkey (around 10%), maintaining this structure for nearly 30 years [1] - The European Union and China are the largest importers of pistachios, with the latter emerging as a significant consumer market [1] Price Dynamics - The price of pistachios surged from $7.65 per pound to $10.30 per pound, marking an increase of approximately 35% due to heightened demand driven by the popularity of a chocolate product [2] - The U.S. pistachio market is projected to see prices rise by 30% to 50% due to new tariffs, which could severely impact market competitiveness [4] Supply and Demand - Global pistachio production is expected to rise by over 40% in 2024, reaching a record 1.1 million tons, with exports increasing by nearly 55% [3] - The demand for pistachios has led to a "stockpiling craze," disrupting the supply-demand balance in the market [2] Competitive Landscape - The U.S. pistachio industry is seeking new markets in the Middle East and India due to anticipated losses from tariff increases, but faces challenges from established suppliers and local production [4][5] - Iran and Turkey are capitalizing on the situation, with lower production costs allowing them to increase exports and compete effectively against U.S. pistachios [5] Environmental Challenges - California's prolonged drought has raised production costs for U.S. pistachios, prompting research into drought-resistant varieties and adjustments in planting strategies [5]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the importance of implementing strict farmland protection and food security responsibilities at all levels of government, as outlined by the provincial committee [1] - The provincial natural resources department will prioritize farmland protection as a major political task and enforce the strictest farmland protection system [1] - There will be a continuous assessment of farmland protection and food security responsibilities, with a focus on accountability for local governments [1] Group 2 - The reform of the balance between farmland occupation and compensation will be advanced, establishing a "1+N" policy system to manage farmland effectively [2] - Strict controls will be placed on non-agricultural construction that occupies farmland, with a focus on maintaining the total amount of farmland [2] - Enhanced law enforcement and regulatory measures will be implemented to combat illegal land use, ensuring accountability for violations [2]

Group 1 - The U.S. trade deficit unexpectedly widened by 18.7% in May, reaching $71.5 billion, driven by a 4% decline in exports and a slight 0.1% decrease in imports [1][4] - Total imports decreased by 0.1% to $350.5 billion, with consumer goods imports dropping by $4 billion, particularly in textiles, apparel, home goods, and toys [4] - Industrial raw materials imports also weakened, with a notable decline in finished metal materials, while motor vehicle parts and engines saw an increase of $3.4 billion [4] Group 2 - U.S. exports fell by 4% to $279 billion, with a significant 5.9% drop in goods exports, primarily due to a $10 billion decline in industrial raw materials exports [7] - Capital goods exports decreased by $1.9 billion, with reduced demand for semiconductors, aircraft engines, and communication equipment [7] - The only positive aspect was a $1.5 billion increase in pharmaceutical exports, indicating structural challenges in U.S. export competitiveness [7] Group 3 - Economists suggest that the current trade data may signal a shift in economic growth dynamics, as the record trade deficit in Q1 had previously hindered GDP growth by 4.6 percentage points [9] - The ongoing adjustments in import and export structures reflect a silent transformation in the U.S. economy, with import contraction indicating cooling domestic demand and weak exports revealing insufficient global demand [9] - The widening trade deficit may represent a typical sign of economic cycle transition, hinting at potential economic rebalancing opportunities [9]

以下文章来源于体重管理三年行动 ，作者体重管理三年行动 体重管理三年行动 . 响应国家"健康中国2030"战略，落实"体重管理年"三年行动，本账号发布权威资讯 你有没有注意到，身边"胖起来"的人越来越常见？ 其实，国际上衡量胖瘦最常用的标准并不是单纯的体重，而是BMI（身体质量指数）。BMI的计算方法是：体重（公斤）除以身高（米）的平 方。BMI在18.5到23.9之间属于正常，超过24为超重，28以上即为肥胖，30及以上则被视为中重度肥胖。 2016年，《柳叶刀》杂志发布的数据显示，全球肥胖人数首次超过了体重偏轻的人群，而中国的肥胖总人数已跃居全球第一，超过美国。 最新的《中国居民膳食营养素参考摄入量》也显示，我国居民超重和肥胖的比例持续上升，成年人肥胖率已超过50%，儿童和青少年超重及肥 胖率也接近20%。 伴随着"胖人"队伍的不断壮大，各种减肥方法层出不穷，在社交平台上不断刷屏。 比如，男演员尹正因分享自己的减脂餐单，意外成为小红书上的热门人物；沈腾公开的"16+8减肥法"（每天连续禁食16小时，其余8小时进 食），更被不少年轻人奉为减肥宝典。 但是，无论是明星还是普通人，减肥这条路都不轻松。 尹正虽然 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that despite uncertainties in the U.S. economy due to President Trump's tariff policies, the job market remains robust with significant job growth in June [2][4][14] - The U.S. added 147,000 jobs in June, surpassing expectations of 117,500, with the unemployment rate decreasing from 4.2% to 4.1% [2][4] - Job growth was primarily driven by healthcare (+58,600 jobs), leisure and hospitality (+20,000 jobs), and state and local government (+80,000 jobs), while private sector job growth was only 74,000, the lowest since October 2024 [4][5] Group 2 - The labor force participation rate has declined, and the unemployment rate for Black workers rose by 0.8 percentage points to 6.8%, the highest level since January 2022 [5][9] - Average hourly earnings increased by $0.08 (0.2%) to $36.30, with the year-over-year growth rate dropping from 3.9% to 3.7% [5][12] - The report indicates a potential slowdown in labor demand due to rising tariffs and restrictive monetary policies, which may hinder hiring activities [4][11] Group 3 - The job market has shown low turnover rates, with hiring activity at a near ten-year low, suggesting employers are retaining their workers amid economic uncertainty [8][9] - Initial claims for unemployment insurance decreased slightly, indicating that layoffs have not accelerated, but finding new jobs remains challenging for many [9][11] - The Federal Reserve is closely monitoring economic data, with expectations of maintaining high interest rates due to concerns over inflation and the impact of tariffs [11][12][14] Group 4 - Wall Street reacted positively to the employment report, with major indices rising, reflecting investor optimism about the resilience of the U.S. economy despite trade policy uncertainties [14] - The strong job report has led to a surge in U.S. Treasury yields and reduced expectations for an imminent rate cut by the Federal Reserve [14]

近日，美国白宫和五角大楼证实，美国暂停对乌克兰的部分支持。多家美国媒体报道称，这一决定是由 于对美国军火库存过度下降的担忧。另一方面，美国国务卿鲁比奥近日又在强调说美国方面不会放弃对 乌克兰的援助，分析认为这实际上是美国采取的一种所谓的平衡策略。专家称，在武器库存受限的情况 下，美国在以色列和乌克兰之间选择倾向以色列，而美国对乌克兰的政策，未来将根据形势变化进行调 整。（央视） ...

Group 1 - The core message of the news is the visit of China's first domestically developed aircraft carrier, Shandong, and its fleet to Hong Kong, which serves to showcase China's military strength and commitment to regional stability [2][3][5][9] - The Shandong aircraft carrier, along with its accompanying destroyers and frigates, arrived in Hong Kong for a five-day visit, attracting significant public interest and media attention [1][3] - The visit is seen as a demonstration of China's defense capabilities and military confidence, reinforcing the notion that China is a key player in maintaining peace in the Asia-Pacific region [5][9] Group 2 - The Shandong carrier's visit to Hong Kong is particularly significant as it marks the first time the carrier has opened for public tours, highlighting the achievements of China's military development [7] - The event has generated a strong sense of national pride among Hong Kong citizens, with tickets for tours being quickly sold out and large crowds gathering to witness the carrier [7] - The visit is framed as a non-provocative display of China's military professionalism and restraint, contrasting with Western naval demonstrations, and aims to solidify regional strategic balance [9]

金十数据7月5日讯，8个欧佩克+国家可能在周六的会议上再次增加8月份的石油产量，以提高市场份 额。PVM分析师Tamas Varga表示："如果欧佩克决定在8月像预期的那样，连续第四个月增产41.1万桶/ 日，那么今年下半年的石油平衡预估将被重新评估，并将表明全球石油储备将加速膨胀。" 分析师：欧佩克若再增产，下半年油市平衡需重新评估 ...