智通财经APP获悉，近日，大摩发布行业研究报告指出，近期中国政府对太阳能行业的无序竞争问题愈发关 注，但认为太阳能行业供给侧改革的实施存在不确定，在执行层面，存在需求疲软、市场参与者以民营企业 为主等风险。与2024年10月的上次短期上涨相比，大摩认为中央政府对光伏市场无序竞争的关注度有所提 升，而行业基本面却在恶化。 行业观点：具有吸引力 自6月30日至7月8日，中国太阳能股票——尤其是多晶硅企业（通威、大全、协鑫集成和新特）股价上涨了 28%-36%（相比之下，恒生指数上涨0.3%，上证综指上涨1.5%）。 大摩列举以下供给侧改革相关新闻动态： 6月29日，《人民日报》强调了太阳能组件行业的内卷式竞争。 （1）由于5月的政策节点（2025年1-5月太阳能装机量为198GW），2025年下半年光伏需求可能会下降。 （2）中国光伏制造价值链由民营企业主导，且2022年以来，许多新产能是在地方政府招商引资的背景下建成 的。 （3）光伏价值链上的多晶硅/硅片/电池片/组件等环节的大部分新产能建于2022-2024年，并且采用了新的减排 标准和新技术。 （4）多晶硅库存水平较高（>300千吨），相当于四个月或以上的 ...

Core Viewpoint - The public fund industry is experiencing a wave of fee reductions, which is seen as a necessary step to enhance investor experience and shift the focus from scale to performance-driven management [1][4][5]. Group 1: Fee Reduction Actions - Since July 2023, several leading fund companies, including E Fund and ICBC Credit Suisse, have announced reductions in management and custody fees across various fund categories, including bond, mixed, and money market funds [2][3]. - E Fund reduced the custody fee for two bond funds from 0.1% to 0.05%, while also lowering management fees for these funds earlier in May [2]. - ICBC Credit Suisse adjusted the management fee for its mixed fund from 1.2% to 0.8%, and other companies like Guotai Asset Management and Dongwu Asset Management have also made similar fee adjustments [2][3]. Group 2: Impact of Fee Reform - Over the past two years, approximately 4,295 fund products have implemented fee reductions, accounting for over 40% of existing products, with a total fee reduction of 24.467 billion yuan, representing an 11.33% decrease [1][3][5]. - The total fees collected by the public fund industry reached 191.537 billion yuan last year, while the total scale of products was 32.76 trillion yuan, indicating a significant reduction in fees despite a 26.45% increase in total scale compared to the previous year [5]. - The industry is transitioning from a scale-oriented approach to one focused on investor returns, which is expected to enhance the quality of services and investment performance [6][7]. Group 3: Future Directions and Innovations - The industry is exploring new fee structures, such as performance-based floating management fees, which are linked to fund performance, as part of the "Action Plan for Promoting High-Quality Development of Public Funds" [7]. - A total of 26 new floating fee funds have been successfully raised, with 24 products collecting 22.68 billion yuan, indicating a growing acceptance of this model [7]. - Fund companies are also adjusting their performance evaluation mechanisms to focus on long-term investor experience and returns, moving away from short-term scale-driven incentives [7].

兴业期货日度策略：2025.07.10 重点策略推荐及操作建议： 商品期货方面：反内卷预期暂难证伪，商品整体偏强。 联系电话：021-80220262 操作上： 品种基本面分析及行情研判： | 品种 | 观点及操作建议 | 方向研判 | 分析师 | 联系人 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 股指 | 冲高回落，韧性仍存 | 震荡 | | | | | 周三股指冲高回落，盘中上证指数站上 3500 点，沪深两市成 | | | | | | 交额继续回升至 1.53（前值为 1.47）万亿元。从行业来看，传媒、 | | | | | | 农林牧渔、综合金融板块涨幅居前，有色金属、基础化工行业领跌。 | | 投资咨询部 | | | | 股指期货随现货小幅调整，各期指基差相对稳定，IC、IM 维持深 | | 张舒绮 | 联系人：房紫薇 | | | 度贴水状态。 | | 从业资格： | 021-80220135 | | | 随着股指估值回升至高位，市场谨慎情绪有所提升，在没有新 | | F3037345 | 从业资格： | | | 增利好的情况下，短期回归高位震荡，考虑到 7 月中报业绩 ...

辟谣。 近日，一篇题为《7月起医保新调整，"个人账户"将全部取消，卡内余额转哪里去?》的自媒体文章引起较 多关注。文中宣称"从医保局内部人士处获悉，全国医保个人账户改革已进入关键阶段""自2025年7月1日 起，全国范围内分步推进医保个人账户改革，最终目标是取消现行个人账户模式"。 对此，中国互联网联合辟谣平台向有关部门查证得知，相关文章中"个人账户将全部取消""全国范围内全面 取消个人账户，所有医保缴费全部进入统筹基金，建立全国统一的医疗保障积分系统"等内容纯属谣言。 事实上，按照中央"改革职工基本医疗保险个人账户，建立健全门诊共济保障机制"部署和《关于建立健全 职工基本医疗保险门诊共济保障机制的指导意见》（国办发【2021】14号）要求，目前医保改革正顺利 推进，多数地区已顺利完成相关工作。此次改革是在不增加社会和个人额外负担的前提下，建立职工医保 普通门诊统筹，不存在"取消职工个人账户"。 值得注意的是，此类谣言并非首次出现。 早在2023年10月，国家医疗保障局办公室和中国互联网联合辟 谣平台就曾针对"取消职工医保个人账户"的谣言进行过专门辟谣。然而，时隔一年多，类似虚假信息再次 出现。谣言故意歪曲医 ...

Group 1 - The core idea of the articles revolves around the "anti-involution" policies aimed at addressing excessive competition in various industries, particularly focusing on the need for regulatory measures to improve product quality and eliminate low-price competition [1][2][3] - The "anti-involution" policy has evolved through several stages, starting from the initial discussions in 2024 to the latest measures proposed in 2025, indicating a comprehensive approach to tackle the issue of irrational competition [2][3] - The macroeconomic impact of "involution" includes a downward spiral of prices leading to reduced corporate profits and consumer spending, necessitating a structured approach to reverse this trend and stimulate economic growth [2][3] Group 2 - Industries expected to break the "involution" cycle include new energy sectors such as solar and electric vehicles, where technological innovation is seen as a key driver for differentiation and competition [4][5] - Traditional cyclical industries like steel and cement are also highlighted, with a focus on supply-side reforms to improve capacity utilization and financial stability [5] - The consumer manufacturing sector is encouraged to enhance quality and reduce costs through digitalization, particularly in livestock farming, to mitigate the effects of cyclical price fluctuations [5] Group 3 - The stock market is anticipated to experience a shift due to "anti-involution" measures, with potential improvements in profitability for certain sectors if price stability and capacity reduction are achieved [6][7] - The current market phase is characterized by policy-driven expectations, with future stages involving capacity clearing and profit recovery, similar to past supply-side reforms [6][7] - Investment strategies should focus on supply-side optimization, technological advancements, and market expansion opportunities, indicating a structural shift in the market dynamics [7][8]

Core Viewpoint - The surge in demand for hedging has led to a significant increase in trading activity in the futures market, driven by multiple factors including trade policy uncertainty, rising U.S. debt risks, and geopolitical tensions [1][2]. Trading Activity - In June, the national futures market recorded a trading volume of 740 million contracts and a turnover of 52.79 trillion yuan, representing year-on-year increases of 28.91% and 17.25% respectively [1]. - For the first half of the year, the cumulative trading volume reached 4.076 billion contracts with a turnover of 339.73 trillion yuan, showing year-on-year growth of 17.82% and 20.68% [1]. Factors Driving Activity - Increased trade friction has disrupted global commodity expectations, particularly in agricultural and energy sectors, leading to heightened hedging and speculative activities [1]. - The rise in U.S. debt risks has spread a risk-averse sentiment, making government bond futures and precious metals futures key asset allocation tools [1]. - Ongoing geopolitical conflicts have exacerbated instability in the energy and chemical sectors, further driving the "hedging + speculation" trading logic [1]. Market Innovations - The deepening reforms and innovations in the futures market have also contributed to active trading, with the introduction of new products and relaxed regulations for international participants [2]. - The trading volume of gold and oil has become a focal point, with gold and gold options seeing increases of 80.35% and 128.36% respectively in the first half of the year [2]. Future Outlook - The overall trading activity in the futures market is expected to remain high in the second half of the year, driven by continuous investor expansion and ongoing macroeconomic uncertainties [3][4]. - However, the growth rate may slow down, and there will be increased differentiation among trading varieties due to potential easing of geopolitical conflicts [4]. Specific Commodity Insights - Analysts remain optimistic about the gold futures market, expecting continued high trading volumes due to persistent global uncertainties and the U.S. Federal Reserve's policies [5][6]. - The container shipping index futures have recently rebounded, although the overall market remains under pressure from high supply and trade policy risks [6].

宏 观 研 究 "反内卷"系列 2025 年 07 月 10 日 "反内卷"，被低估的决心 ——"反内卷"系列之三 中央财经委会议提出 "依法依规治理企业低价无序竞争…推动落后产能有序退出"为"反内卷" 指明方向。相比过往，本轮"内卷"症结何在，如何破解"内卷"困境？系统分析，供参考。 一、本轮"反内卷"，有何不同？站位更高，覆盖面更广，协同性更强 中央财经委员会第六次会议召开，以纵深推进全国统一大市场建设为主题，为"综合整治内卷 式竞争"政策部署指明方向。会议提出"五统一、一开放"要求，同时强调"依法依规治理企 业低价无序竞争…推动落后产能有序退出"等，进一步明确行后续"反内卷"政策路径。 本轮"反内卷"站位更高，覆盖面更广，协同性更强。本轮"反内卷"，地方政府（招商引资）、 企业（过度投资、降价）、居民（日均工作时间增加）可能都在讨论的范畴中。且"内卷"领 域民营经济占比较高下，本轮"反内卷"协同性或更强，更突出政策与市场机制配合。同时， 本轮"反内卷"更强调区域治理，明确将推动全国统一大市场建设列为核心任务。 见微知著，部分企业"内卷"症结或部分缘于营收增速大幅回落与固定费用刚性的矛盾，使得 其不得不采 ...

文 | 曾宁 来源 | 曾宁大宗商品研究 编辑 | 杨兰 审核 | 浦电路交易员 最近关于"反内卷"的讨论如火如荼，与此同时，以多晶硅为代表的大宗商品出现了大幅的反弹，那 么，本轮大宗商品的反弹，仅仅是因为"反内卷"吗？后期大宗商品的进一步走势如何？本期我们结合 近期的宏观和产业背景进行简要分析。 今年以来最弱的大宗商品，就是和"煤炭+地产"关系最密切的大宗商品，以黑色建材和新能 源商品为代表，但是从6月份以来，黑色建材和新能源商品整体上就进入了筑底阶段，背后 的原因，主要是成本触及底部以及需求的超预期。 从成本来看，最近两年煤炭的过剩格局，使得煤炭以及和煤炭相关的黑色建材、工业硅、多 晶硅等商品成本坍塌。但是，随着动力煤和焦煤价格进入边际成本线，以及适逢当前的迎峰 度夏，煤炭价格出现了企稳反弹，大宗商品的长鞭效应以及资本市场的羊群效应构成了煤炭 的下游商品反弹的基础。 另外一方面是需求的超预期，4月份之后特朗普的关税实际落地不及预期，缓解了全球的需 求担忧，中国的出口持续超预期。从海外来看，美国经济当前稳健，"大而美"法案的通过尽 管长期来看将加大美国的债务风险，但中短期内将继续提振美国经济。在海外经济相对 ...

金十数据7月10日讯，Monex分析师在最新报告中指出，尽管英国经济面临诸多风险，英镑仍展现出一 定韧性。周三，在议会质询中被反对党领袖追问时，首相斯塔默拒绝排除未来征收财富税的可能性。但 与上周不同的是，此次表态并未引发英镑抛售潮。此前，由于斯塔默在福利改革"掉头"后未能第一时间 确认财政大臣里夫斯将继续留任，曾导致英镑承压。报告指出："不过，政府所面临的经济挑战并未改 变，这也意味着英镑仍将承压前行。" 机构：英镑展现韧性 但经济基本面仍存隐忧 ...

Core Viewpoint - The photovoltaic (PV) sector is experiencing a rebound in stock prices due to expectations of production cuts and rising prices in the upstream supply chain, despite a slowdown in terminal demand [1][2][4]. Group 1: Market Performance - The photovoltaic index has risen significantly, with the photovoltaic ETF (515790.OF) increasing by over 14% since the last week of June, and 20 PV stocks have seen gains exceeding 20% [1][2]. - The price of silicon materials has increased by over 6% week-on-week, with rumors of silicon wafer companies raising their prices by 8% to 11.7% [1][2][3]. - The main multi-crystalline silicon futures contract has risen by 5% as of July 10, with a cumulative rebound of nearly 35% since June 26 [2]. Group 2: Company Performance - TCL Zhonghuan (002129.SZ) is expected to report a significant increase in net profit losses for Q2, with estimates ranging from 4 billion to 4.5 billion yuan, attributed to falling product prices and inventory pressures [5]. - Aiko Solar (爱旭股份, 600732.SH) anticipates a turnaround in Q2, projecting a net profit loss of 170 million to 280 million yuan, a significant improvement compared to previous losses exceeding 5 billion yuan [4][5]. - The performance of companies in the PV sector is showing divergence, with some manufacturers experiencing worsening losses while others manage to narrow their losses through product differentiation [4]. Group 3: Industry Trends - The industry is facing challenges such as overcapacity, homogeneous competition, and low-price competition, prompting a shift towards production cuts and policy adjustments to address these issues [2][6]. - The domestic PV market's terminal demand is currently weak, and the sustainability of price increases will depend on effective policies to regulate price competition and excess capacity [6]. - Analysts suggest that the focus should be on the rapid technological iteration in battery cells and the high-cost silicon material segment, which may lead to the exit of less efficient production capacities [6].