行情回顾 美元指数本周整体震荡上行，延续上周非农后的反弹走势，主要受到特朗普贸易威胁的消息与市场对美联储货币政策预期的牵动，曾接近98关口但未能成功 上破。本周料将录得三周来首次收涨，截至发稿报97.8。 现货黄金周初区间震荡，期间一度下破3300关口，但随着市场消化特朗普关税"大棒"的威胁，周三欧盘开始稳步回升，截至发稿站上3350美元/盎司。另 外，央行数据显示，我国连续第8个月增持黄金。现货白银周四、周五涨势显著，截至发稿站上37.7美元/盎司，今年涨幅接近30%，创2011年以来最高。 非美货币方面，澳元兑美元本周持续走高，澳洲联储维持利率不变，与市场预期相违背；英镑和欧元兑美元震荡下跌，英镑恐将录得六连跌；美元兑日元周 一大幅上涨后区间盘整。 国际油价方面，红海局势因胡塞武装袭击再度升温、俄罗斯6月原油产量仍低于OPEC+目标、OPEC+有望在10月暂停增产等因素对油价起到推高作用，但是 美国EIA原油库存意外增超市场预期，叠加市场对全球需求前景的担忧加剧，油价周四起转跌，本周料整体小幅收涨。 风险资产方面，市场基本忽视特朗普最新的关税威胁，风险偏好持续好转，英伟达市值创4万亿美元，带动标普500指 ...

Core Viewpoint - The successful trial production of the 200,000 tons/year mixed waste plastic resource utilization project by Huicheng Environmental Protection has garnered significant market attention, despite the company's declining financial performance in recent quarters [1][2]. Group 1: Project Overview - Huicheng Environmental Protection's project is a chemical recycling initiative under its subsidiary Dongyue Chemical, focusing on the conversion of mixed waste plastics into high-value chemical raw materials [2][3]. - The project utilizes a proprietary technology called deep catalytic cracking of mixed waste plastics (CPDCC), achieving a product yield of over 92%, which is significantly higher than the industry average of 60%-80% [3][4]. Group 2: Financial Performance - Despite the stock price soaring over 150% in the past year, the company's net profit has been declining, with expectations of losses starting from Q4 2024 [1][8]. - As of July 11, the company's market capitalization reached 48.035 billion yuan, with static and rolling P/E ratios of 1,127 times and 3,490 times, respectively [8]. Group 3: Market Context and Competition - Huicheng Environmental Protection is not the only player in the mixed plastic recycling sector; other companies like BASF and Eastman are also developing similar technologies, albeit through different methods [4]. - The company faces challenges in operational efficiency and economic viability once the project begins full-scale operations, as the availability and quality of waste plastic feedstock will significantly impact performance [5][6]. Group 4: Policy and Support - The company may benefit from government policies aimed at promoting waste recycling and resource utilization, as seen in Guangdong's recent initiatives to develop a comprehensive waste recycling system [7]. Group 5: Shareholder Concerns - There is a notable concern regarding the high level of share pledges by the controlling shareholders, with 32.4655 million shares pledged, accounting for 17.48% of the total share capital [9].

Group 1 - The unemployment rate in Canada unexpectedly decreased to 6.9% in June, with job growth primarily in part-time positions [1] - The number of new jobs added in June was 83,100, marking the first net increase since January [1] - Employment gains were noted in the wholesale retail, healthcare, and social assistance sectors [1] Group 2 - The positive employment data may lead the Bank of Canada to maintain its policy interest rate unchanged during the monetary policy decision on July 30 [1] - Upcoming inflation data for June will further assist the central bank in making its decision [1]

智通财经APP获悉，近日，欧洲央行官员就利率政策表态呈现分歧。管理委员会成员法比奥·帕内塔认 为，若经济增长不及预期并过度拉低通胀，应进一步降息。执行委员会成员施纳贝尔则强调降息门槛极 高，仅当通胀中期显著偏离目标时才需考虑，称当前利率合适，经济有韧性。值得一提的是，两者均认 可需依经济与通胀态势决策，只是对宽松必要性看法不同。 鸽派帕内塔：增长疲软拖累通胀时应进一步降息 意大利央行行长、欧洲央行管委帕内塔表示，若经济扩张不及预期、导致通胀过度下行，欧洲央行应进 一步下调利率。 他在周五的演讲中重申："若增长面临的下行风险加剧通胀放缓趋势，继续实施货币宽 松政策将是恰当之举。" 帕内塔的言论并未暗示欧洲央行需在7月24日的会议上采取行动。目前外界普遍预计，欧央行官员将在 此次会议上维持借贷成本不变。 政策制定者们即将暂停为期一年的降息行动。在这一年中，存款利率累计下调200个基点至2%。暂停降 息的一个重要原因在于欧洲与美国的贸易关系前景不明，而乌克兰和中东的战事则加剧了这种不确定 性。 投资者仍预计年底前将再降息一次。帕内塔承诺，官员们将保持"灵活务实"的态度，根据现有信息及其 对通胀前景的影响，根据具体情 ...

Group 1 - The number of countries with visa-free access to China has increased to 54, allowing travelers from these nations to visit China easily with a regular passport [1][2] - The implementation of the 72/144-hour visa-free transit policy has been expanded to include Norway, among other countries, enhancing travel convenience [2] - In the first quarter of this year, the number of foreign visitors to China under the visa-free policy reached 1.988 million, more than doubling compared to the previous year [2] Group 2 - Foreign tourists are surprised by China's modern infrastructure and technological advancements, which differ significantly from their preconceived notions of the country [5][7] - The convenience of mobile payment systems in China has left a lasting impression on foreign visitors, leading to a "withdrawal reaction" when they return to their home countries [9][11] - Different nationalities have shown preferences for specific Chinese cuisines, such as Korean tourists favoring hot pot and Japanese tourists enjoying Peking duck, highlighting the diverse culinary appeal of China [12][14][15] Group 3 - Tourists from the Middle East appreciate the safety and security in China, contrasting it with their home countries, which often have less favorable security conditions [21][28] - The global law and order index ranks China third, indicating a high level of safety that is attractive to international visitors [28][29] - The "withdrawal reaction" experienced by foreign tourists upon leaving China reflects their positive experiences and recognition of the country's hospitality and safety [31][34]

Group 1 - The automotive industry in China achieved double-digit growth in multiple indicators during the first half of the year [10] - The China Export-Import Bank issued over 610 billion yuan in new loans for foreign trade in the first half of the year [13] - The implementation of the departure tax refund policy has stimulated new vitality in inbound consumption [12] Group 2 - A preliminary establishment of the fertility support policy system in China has been reported [16]

"解构美联储→欧央行→日银政策冲击波：从美元霸权裂痕到新兴市场货币休克疗法" 经济环境纳入外汇交易策略，系统性整合经济指标分析、政策预期、市场情绪及风险管理。 一经济指标的核心作用和交易映射 1. 利率和货币政策 1. 机制：央行利率决议直接影响资本流动。例如，美联储加息通常推升美元汇率（利差扩大吸引套息资 金），而欧央行降息则压制欧元。 1. 提前布局：根据利率期货市场隐含概率预判政策方向。 2. 事件交易：政策公布后 3 分钟内突破入场，止损设于前高 / 低点外 20 点。 2. 通胀经济增长数据 2. 跨市场验证：大宗商品价格上涨时，同步做多 AUD/CAD（商品货币联动）。 1. GDP/CPI 的传导逻辑： 1. 高通胀 → 央行加息预期升温 → 货币短期走强。 2. 案例：2024 年 9 月美联储降息后，美元指数单日下跌 1.2%，EUR/USD 突破 1.08 阻力位。 3. 策略应用： 2. 但持续高通胀可能损害经济 → 货币长期贬值。 2. 策略应用： 1. 数据背离交易：当 GDP 强劲但就业疲软时（如美国 2025Q1 GDP+3.2% vs 失业率 4.5%），做多避险 货币 JPY ...

7月10日，《北京市深化改革提振消费专项行动方案》发布。其中，在优化住房消费新供给方面提出， 进一步发挥住房公积金促进作用，支持缴存人在提取公积金支付购房首付款的同时申请住房公积金个人 住房贷款。研究制定住房公积金个人住房贷款"带押过户"政策，并开展相关业务。 NO.4 龙光集团近220亿元境内债重组方案获批 点评：这是积极响应国家扩大公积金使用范围的举措。这将降低购房门槛，减轻资金压力，刺激住房消 费，且为二手房交易带来便利，也为其他城市公积金政策优化提供示范。 NO.2 招商蛇口将发放2024年度分红17.5亿元 7月10日，招商蛇口发布2024年度利润分配方案实施公告。以特定基数，向全体股东每10股派现1.9353 元（含税），不转增股本。若享有分配权股数变动，将按总额不变原则调整每股分红。股权登记日为7 月16日，除息及发放日为17日，实际分红17.5亿元。 点评：近年来，招商蛇口通过股份回购、现金分红回馈股东，体现出对股东回报的重视。此次分红展现 其财务稳健，有利于提升投资者信心。 NO.3 苏州出让三宗宅地均底价成交 7月9日，苏州本级出让3宗宅地，总建筑面积16.10万平方米，起始价15.48亿 ...

与往年相比，今年上半年的昆明楼市表现有点不一般。 2025年已过半程，于近日相继发布的各大研究机构统计数据结果，却出奇地一致。新旧产品更迭的竞争 比想象中来得更猛烈，才出手即进入白热化，市场主导权正在转移。 创新型产品异军突起，90后上位成购房主力军 据克而瑞发布的数据显示，2025年上半年昆明新建商品住宅成交规模168万方，同比涨22%。换而言 之，上半年昆明楼市总成交约1.4万套，近一年新房月均成交2510套。 新盘方面，共计有7个项目首开，多为第四代住宅、负公摊、零公摊的创新型产品，且占据有卓越的地 段位置优势。这类好区位品质型创新产品，去化率约20%-40%，表现较佳。 片来源：克而瑞 图 片来源：克而瑞 体现在数据方面，即100-110㎡市占同比提升3.2%、100-140万市占同比提升6.8%；130-150㎡市占同比 提升1.9%、250-300万市占同比提升2.5%；180-200㎡市占同比提升0.5%。 改善或四代宅/零公摊产品更受青睐，又有4个楼盘加入房票房源 具体到楼盘项目，市场需求的变化和走势，基本与各大热销楼盘的销售数据一致。 不出所料，邦泰·璟和、保利天珺、邦泰·悦九章·彩云、华发 ...

关税扰动降低，双雄份额提升趋势未改 [Table_Industry] 家用电器业 [Table_Invest] 评级： 增持 ——黑电行业更新报告 | [table_Authors] 蔡雯娟(分析师) | 曲世强(研究助理) | 谢丛睿(分析师) | | --- | --- | --- | | 021-38676666 | 021-38676666 | 021-38676666 | | 登记编号 S0880521050002 | S0880123070132 | S0880523090004 | 本报告导读： 越南作为对美产能重要基地，视为对美关税谈判风向标，多数国家达成新关税税率 有所降低，关税扰动降低；黑电双雄份额提升趋势未改，全球供应链韧性强。 投资要点： 股 票 研 究 行 业 跟 踪 报 证 券 研 究 报 告 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 告 股票研究 /[Table_Date] 2025.07.11 [Table_Summary] 投资建议：黑电行业正处于需求复苏与技术升级的窗口期，全球产 能布局（尤其墨西哥、越南）是应对关税挑战的核心策略。中国品 牌在高端化和成本控制上的优势，为行业带来韧 ...