证券研究报告 | 行业研究简报 gszqdatemark 2025 05 11 年 月 日 煤炭开采 2025Q1 全球海运煤炭贸易量同比下降 6.7% 本周全球能源价格回顾。截至 2025 年 5 月 9 日，原油价格方面，布伦特 原油期货结算价为 63.91 美元/桶，较上周上涨 2.62 美元/桶（+4.27%）； WTI 原油期货结算价为 61.02 美元/桶，较上周上涨 2.73 美元/桶 （+4.68%）。天然气价格方面，东北亚 LNG 现货到岸价为 12.00 美元/百 万英热，较上周上涨 0.65 美元/百万英热（+5.7%）；荷兰 TTF 天然气期 货结算价 34.75 欧元/兆瓦时，较上周上涨 1.70 欧元/兆瓦时（+5.1%）； 美国 HH 天然气期货结算价为 3.80 美元/百万英热，较上周上涨 0.17 美元 /百万英热（+4.5%）。煤炭价格方面，欧洲 ARA 港口煤炭（6000K）到岸 价 97.1 美元/吨，较上周上涨 1.8 美元/吨（+1.9%）；纽卡斯尔港口煤炭 （6000K）FOB 价 98.9 美元/吨，较上周上涨 0.9 美元/吨（+0.9%）；IPE 南非理查兹 ...

煤炭 优于大市（维持） 证券分析师 翟堃 资格编号：s0120523050002 邮箱：zhaikun＠tebon.com.cn 研究助理 谢佶圆 邮箱：xiejy＠tebon.com.cn 市场表现 -34% -26% -17% -9% 0% 9% 17% 26% 2024-05 2024-09 2025-01 煤炭开采 沪深300 资料来源：聚源数据、德邦研究所 相关研究 1.《永泰能源（600157.SH）：煤炭 主业以量补价，煤电协同稳步推 进》，2025.4.29 2.《煤炭周报：宏观预期强化，重 视板块底部布局》，2025.4.27 3.《煤炭周报：煤价震荡寻底，关 注板块红利属性》，2025.4.20 4.《煤炭行业月报：3 月进口同比转 负 ， 静 待 后 续 需 求 改 善 》， 2025.4.18 5.《煤炭周报：煤价底部企稳，回 购增持彰显板块价值》，2025.4.12 煤炭周报: 板块业绩有望筑底， 寻找相对确定性机会 [Table_Summary] 投资要点： 煤炭开采 2025 年 05 月 11 日 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和法律声明 证券研究报告 | 行业周报 25Q1 业 ...

Brain-Computer Interface Sector - The brain-computer interface concept shows strong short-term momentum after breaking through a platform, with two gaps left behind [1] - Recent adjustments have tested the gap support, and the next trading day is crucial for potential small upward rebounds [1] - If the gap fails to hold, a more significant wave adjustment may occur [1] Coal Sector - The coal sector has undergone a long-term adjustment, with recent low points indicating a potential upward trend [1] - A significant characteristic observed is the volume increase following a period of low trading volume, suggesting short-term upward potential [1] Insurance Sector - The insurance sector's current trend is constrained by a connecting line of high points, but a double bottom structure has emerged as a support point [1] - The sector has recently surpassed the 5-day moving average, indicating a short-term upward trend [1] Consumer Electronics Sector - The consumer electronics sector displays a strong upward pattern, with recent adjustments remaining shallow and above the 5-day moving average [1] - The potential for small upward movements in the next trading day is being monitored [1] Pork Sector - The pork sector shows a clear upward trend with higher low points and increased trading volume, indicating potential for further upward movement [1] - Recent volume accumulation suggests that the main players may still be building positions, with future upward movements expected to be genuine [1]

Core Viewpoint - In April, China's coal and lignite imports amounted to 37.825 million tons, a decrease from 38.732 million tons in March [1] Group 1 - China's coal and lignite imports in April were 37.825 million tons [1] - The imports in March were recorded at 38.732 million tons, indicating a decline [1]

Core Insights - The General Administration of Customs reported that China's coal and lignite imports from January to April amounted to 152.67 million tons [1] Group 1 - The total coal and lignite import volume reflects significant demand in the Chinese market [1]

如何看待下半年煤炭供需基本面？20250508 摘要 • 2025 年动力煤市场供应宽松，春节后煤矿供应恢复快于下游需求，导致 2 月价格快速回落，4 月底港口 CCI 5,500 动力煤价格为 657 元/吨，低于 中长协价格 22 元/吨，坑口煤价创四年新低。 • 预计 2025 年新增动力煤产能约 7,700 万吨，退出产能约 1,900 万吨，后 备产能充足，截至 2024 年底总产能 63 亿吨，其中动力煤 49 亿吨，保障 供应安全。 • 2025 年 3 月全国原煤产量同比增长 9.6%，晋陕蒙新四区域占全国总量 81.73%，样本周均产量 1,264.8 万吨，周环比增长 0.74%。 • 预计 2025 年下半年动力煤供需基本面保持宽松，市场需求疲软及库存压 力增加，煤价可能继续承压，部分企业或采取以量补价策略，短期内可能 出现局部反弹。 • 2024 年我国煤炭进口创历史新高，达 5.43 亿吨，同比增长 14%，其中 动力煤进口 4.2 亿吨。预计 2025 年总进口量将低于去年，约为 5.25 亿吨， 同比下降 3.4%。 Q&A 如何看待今年（2025 年）下半年煤炭供需基本面及价格 ...

煤炭红利：不确定性中确定性 ——煤炭行业七问七答 长江证券研究所煤炭研究小组 2025-05-08 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 证券研究报告 • 证券研究报告 • 评级 看好 维持 分析师及联系人 | 分析师 肖勇 | 分析师 赵超 | 分析师 叶如祯 | 分析师 庄越 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SAC执业证书编号：S0490516080003 | SAC执业证书编号：S0490519030001 | SAC执业证书编号：S0490517070008 | SAC执业证书编号：S0490522090003 | | SFC执业证书编号：BUT918 | SFC执业证书编号：BUY139 | | | | SAC执业证书编号：S0490524120007 | | | | | 分析师 韦思宇 | 联系人 宋楚 | | | %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 2 research.95579.com 4 01 煤炭行业主要投资什么？ 02 为何板块从涨业绩到涨估值？ 03 为何24H2以来煤炭板块回调明显？ 04 需求走弱， ...

Group 1: 2024 Performance Overview - The coal sector's overall net profit excluding non-recurring items is expected to decline by 20% year-on-year, with an average ROE of approximately 10% [1] - The total profit of large coal enterprises is projected to be 604.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 22.2% [1] - Key coal companies are expected to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of 157.3 billion yuan and a net profit excluding non-recurring items of 155.5 billion yuan, down 18.6% and 19.7% year-on-year, respectively [1] Group 2: 2024 Operational Overview - The total coal production of 28 key coal companies is estimated at 1.34 billion tons, a year-on-year increase of 2.0% [2] - The weighted average net profit per ton of coal is approximately 131 yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 25% [2] - The weighted average coal price and cost are projected to decrease by 7% and remain stable, respectively [2] Group 3: Q1 2025 Performance Overview - The sector's profit is expected to decline by 27% year-on-year, with an average net profit margin of around 11% [3] - The total net profit attributable to shareholders for Q1 2025 is projected to be 31 billion yuan, down 27.3% year-on-year [3] - The average gross profit margin and net profit margin for Q1 2025 are expected to drop to 25% and 11%, respectively [3] Group 4: Q1 2025 Operational Overview - The coal production of 24 companies is expected to reach 304 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 5.7% [4] - The weighted average net profit per ton of coal is projected to decrease to 97 yuan, with coal prices and costs declining by 18% and 15%, respectively [4] - Some companies, such as Shaanxi Energy and Yancoal, are expected to maintain a net profit per ton exceeding 100 yuan [4] Group 5: Industry Outlook - Seasonal demand for thermal coal is expected to improve marginally after May, with expectations of increased industrial demand and reduced coal imports [5] - Coal prices are anticipated to gradually recover after inventory declines, despite a potential downward trend in the price center for 2025 [5] Group 6: Key Companies - Companies with stable profits and high dividends include Shaanxi Coal and China Shenhua [6] - Companies with low valuations and long-term growth potential include China Coal Energy and Yancoal [6] - Companies benefiting from positive demand expectations and low PB ratios include Huabei Mining and Shanxi Coking Coal [6]

大宗商品研究 能源化工研发报告 煤炭日报 2025 年 5 月 7 日 煤炭日报 【市场回顾】 现货市场：5 月 7 日，港口市场看跌情绪浓厚，贸易商报价维持偏弱，现 5500 大卡 市场报价 650 元/吨，5000 大卡市场报价 570-580 元/吨，4500 大卡市场报价 515 元/吨； 内蒙地区非电企业用煤 5500 大卡煤炭含税价在 420 - 460 元/吨，5000 大卡煤炭价格在 350 - 390 元/吨，4500 大卡煤炭价格则在 270 - 310 元/吨；榆林地区非电企业用煤 6000 大卡煤价格区间为 510-540 元/吨，5800 大卡煤价格区间为 485-515 元/吨；山西非电企 业用煤 5500 大卡煤种的含税价格处于 460 - 510 元/吨，5000 大卡煤种价格为 400 - 450 元/吨，4500 大卡煤种价格则在 340 - 390 元/吨之间。江内港口 5500 大卡动力煤报价在 695-710 元/吨，5000 大卡动力煤报价 610-625 元/吨。 【重要资讯】 1-3 月，全国各电力交易中心累计组织完成市场交易电量 14574.8 亿千瓦时，同比 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the coastal coal market is experiencing a strong supply and weak demand situation, leading to continuous price pressure [1][2] - The Qinhuangdao coal price index reported a decrease of 4 yuan/ton, settling at 673 yuan/ton, marking a continued decline in coal prices for six consecutive months [1] - The inventory levels at coastal ports have been rising, with daily coal consumption at coastal power plants remaining low due to the off-peak season [1] Group 2 - The Daqin line's spring maintenance has concluded, restoring daily transport capacity to a normal level of 1.2 million tons, with port inventories maintaining a high level of over 32 million tons [1] - Coastal power plants are primarily focused on inventory reduction, with coal consumption dropping to seasonal lows and the number of vessels at anchor in the Bohai Sea ports reaching a historical low of 37 [1] - Looking ahead, there is an expectation for a gradual recovery in domestic coal prices as non-electricity sector demand resumes and the delayed effects of reduced imports during the off-peak season become apparent [2]