日本总务省6月20日公布的5月消费者物价指数（生鲜食品除外）较上年同期上涨3.7%，涨幅较4月的 3.5%有所扩大。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The minutes from the Bank of Japan's meeting indicate that one member believes the likelihood of a further decline in basic prices in Japan is low [1] Summary by Relevant Categories - **Monetary Policy Outlook** - The discussion reflects a cautious stance on the potential for further price decreases, suggesting a stable outlook for monetary policy in the near term [1]

日本5月份核心消费物价同比上涨3.7%。 ...

智通财经6月20日电，日本5月份核心消费物价同比上涨3.7%。 ...

Economic Data Overview - In May, China's total retail sales of consumer goods reached 41,326 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 6.4%, marking the highest growth rate since 2024 [1][2] - For the first five months, China's total import and export value of goods was 17.94 trillion yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 2.5%, indicating a sustained growth trend [1][5] Consumer Spending Insights - The growth in consumer spending in May exceeded expectations, driven by policies such as "old-for-new" exchanges and emerging consumption trends like "self-indulgent consumption" [2][3] - The "old-for-new" policy significantly boosted sales, contributing 1.1 trillion yuan in sales across five major categories in the first five months [2][3] - The retail sales growth is expected to surpass 5% this year, compared to a 3.5% growth in the previous year, as consumption plays a more prominent role in economic growth [2][3] Trade Dynamics - The foreign trade performance in the first five months was better than expected, influenced by "export rushes" and a notable increase in exports to the EU and ASEAN, despite a decline in exports to the US due to tariffs [1][5][6] - Exports to ASEAN and the EU grew by 9.1% and 2.9% respectively, while exports to the US decreased by 8.1% [5] Policy Recommendations - Future consumption policies could expand from durable goods to service consumption and provide direct subsidies to low-income groups [2][3] - To enhance service consumption, there is a need for innovative and diversified consumption scenarios, integrating new business models and products [3] Inflation and Economic Balance - The consumer price index (CPI) rose by 0.1% year-on-year in the first five months, indicating a need for policies to promote economic balance and reasonable price recovery [4][5] - The weak price level is attributed to intense competition in investment-driven sectors, income distribution disparities, and underutilized public consumption [4][5] Gold Market Outlook - The outlook for gold prices is characterized by short-term volatility and long-term upward trends, influenced by interest rates, the dollar's performance, and geopolitical risks [8] - Recent trends show a significant increase in gold prices, with a rise of approximately 30% this year, supported by central banks' continued accumulation of gold reserves [8]

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分析师：欧元区物价压力进一步缓解 金十数据6月18日讯，财经网站Forexlive的分析师表示，由于欧元区的价格压力进一步缓解，欧洲央行 在进入夏季后将有更大的灵活性，因此最初对利率的估计没有变化。从目前的情况来看，市场目前只预 计到年底央行将降息21个基点左右。 ...

决策层面临多重挑战：一方面，经济增速放缓与劳动力市场降温迹象显现;另一方面，服务业通胀粘性 超预期，叠加中东局势升级导致国际油价较一周前飙升14%，输入性通胀风险再起。 尽管市场普遍预期北京时间6月19日英国央行议息会议将维持利率不变，但8月会议是否启动宽松周期仍 存悬念，央行需在经济增长与物价稳定间谨慎权衡。 英国统计局代理首席经济学家理查德.海斯分析指出，5月物价走势呈现结构性分化特征：机票和燃油成 本下降，但被食品价格上涨所抵消，尤其是巧克力和肉类，以及家具和家居用品，包括冰箱和吸尘器。 金融市场对通胀数据反应敏感，英镑汇率在数据发布后延续涨势，日内上涨0.3%至1.3462美元的盘中高 位。货币市场定价显示，投资者仍维持英国央行年内将降息25个基点的预期，但具体时点存在分歧。 英国通胀率仍处于一年多以来的最高水平，价格压力依然高得令人不安。在此背景下，英国央行即将发 布最新信号，决定是否继续降息，而这一决策面临着能源价格可能再次飙升的严峻挑战。英国统计局最 新数据显示，消费者价格指数(CPI)同比增速从4月的3.5%修正值回落至5月的3.4%，当月通胀表现略超 经济学家3.3%的预期值，与英国央行此前 ...

英国5月零售物价指数环比 0.2%，预期 0.2%，前值 1.7%。 ...

英国5月核心零售物价指数同比 4.1%，前值 4.2%。 ...