结构调整

Search documents
如何看待用电增速与经济增速温差
Jing Ji Ri Bao· 2025-05-21 22:41
通过剖析这种"背离",也给我们带来三重启示:其一,要理性看待电力消费弹性系数的波动,建立更立 体的经济监测指标体系;其二,需警惕部分地区为追求用电数据"匹配"GDP而放松能效约束,防止高耗 能项目回潮;其三,应加快构建新型电力系统,通过虚拟电厂、需求侧响应等手段,将波动性新能源与 柔性负荷高效匹配,为高质量发展提供更灵活的能源支撑。 即便剔除这两个"偶然因素",用电量增速仍与经济增速有较大差距,其中的缺口与用电结构有关。第二 产业用电量占比大但增速偏低,是导致全社会用电量增速低于经济增速的主要因素。一季度,工业和建 筑业用电量增长缓慢,对用电量增速低于经济增速的贡献较为明显。其中,房地产市场调整导致相关产 业需求减少,进而影响了用电量;光伏市场深度调整,使得电气机械和器材制造业用电量下降;汽车行 业高端化发展,虽然带来了行业增加值快速增长,但用电量增长却相对滞后。在这些叠加因素作用下, 使第二产业从以往推动用电量增速高于经济增速的主要力量,转变为拉低用电量增速的因素。 有人担心,用电量增速放缓是不是经济发展的后劲不足了呢?其实大可不必如此设想。用电增速与经济 增速的温差,不应简单理解为经济"虚胖"或统计失真, ...
中国央行:抓好一揽子货币金融政策措施的落实和传导
news flash· 2025-05-20 11:30
Core Viewpoint - The meeting emphasized the need for the financial system to align with the central government's decisions to stabilize employment, businesses, markets, and expectations, while effectively implementing monetary policies to address external uncertainties [1] Group 1: Monetary Policy - The meeting highlighted the importance of implementing a moderately loose monetary policy to meet the effective financing needs of the real economy [1] - It was stated that maintaining reasonable growth in the total financial volume is crucial [1] Group 2: Support for Key Areas - Increased support for key areas such as technological innovation, consumption, small and micro enterprises, and stabilizing foreign trade was emphasized [1] - The meeting called for effective utilization of both existing and new policies to enhance the quality and efficiency of financial support for the real economy [1] Group 3: Economic Transition - The focus was placed on supporting economic structural adjustments, transformation upgrades, and the conversion of old and new driving forces [1]
今天 利好!
Zhong Guo Ji Jin Bao· 2025-05-20 08:23
5月20日,A股全天震荡反弹,截至收盘沪指涨0.38%,深成指涨0.77%,创业板指涨0.77%。 3380.48 10249.17 2048.46 2048.46 2048.48 +0.38% 3040.77% 6040.77% 大家好,一起回顾一下今天市场发生了什么。 A股上涨 宠物经济概念股集体爆发,源飞宠物、依依股份等涨停。 北证50、微盘股指数齐创历史新高。 | 指 | 代码 | 名称 | | 涨幅% | 现价 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1 | | 301335 天元龙初 | | R 20.01 | 44.50 | | IV | 300703 | 创源股份 | | 20.00 | 19.02 | | 3 | 832419 | 路斯股份 | R | 18.10 | 31.78 | | 1 | 838275 | 驱动力 | R | 14.10 | 13.51 | | 5 | 301158 | 美农生物 | R | 13.81 | 24.81 | | B | 301009 | 可靠股份 | R | 12.14 | 15.06 | | 7 | 300 ...
钢铁行业周报(20250512-20250516):宏观预期和基本面双修复,钢价待修复-20250518
Huachuang Securities· 2025-05-18 11:48
证 券 研 究 报 告 钢铁行业周报(20250512-20250516) 推荐(维持) 宏观预期和基本面双修复,钢价待修复 行业观点:供给高位回落,外贸预期有所好转,钢材价格上涨 事件一:截至 5 月 16 日,五大品种螺纹钢、线材、热轧、冷轧、中板价格分 别报收 3330 元/吨、3657 元/吨、3320 元/吨、3767 元/吨、3539 元/吨,周环比 分别变化+1.04%、+0.86%、+1.40%、+1.31%、+0.22%。本周五大品种产量 868.35 万吨,周环比下降 5.82 万吨。247 家钢铁企业日均铁水 244.77 万吨,周环比 下降 0.87 万吨,高炉产能利用率 91.76%,周环比下降 0.33 个百分点,高炉开 工率84.15%,周环比下降 0.47个百分点。短流程企业,电炉产能利用率 56.57%, 周环比上升 1.49 个百分点,电炉开工率 75.2%,周环比上升 2.47 个百分点。 库存方面,本周钢材总库存 1430.66 万吨,周环比下降 45.41 万吨。其中社会 库存环比下降 39.37 万吨至 993.67 万吨;钢厂库存环比下降 6.04 万吨至 436 ...
胡晓炼:劳动密集型产业缺乏竞争力,关税政策难促美国制造业回流
Feng Huang Wang Cai Jing· 2025-05-17 10:29
Group 1 - The 2025 Tsinghua Wudaokou Global Financial Forum was held in Shenzhen, focusing on building an open and inclusive economic and financial system [1] Group 2 - Hu Xiaolian, former chairman of the Export-Import Bank of China, emphasized that the U.S.-led tariff policies are unlikely to achieve their intended goals, and the fundamental solution to trade imbalances requires adjustments in each country's economic structure [5] - The core objectives of the U.S. tariff policies include reducing trade deficits, increasing fiscal revenue, and restructuring the international economic order, but the actual return of manufacturing to the U.S. is uncertain and challenging [5] - Hu noted that the U.S. lacks competitiveness in general processing and labor-intensive industries, leading companies to prefer relocating to regions with lower tariffs and better cost structures, particularly in global South and emerging market countries [5] Group 3 - Hu further stated that the rebalancing of global trade will lead to profound adjustments in the internal economic structures of major economies, highlighting the need for countries to focus on domestic economic adjustments to effectively address trade imbalances [6] - Historical experience suggests that trade imbalances can only be effectively resolved when a country's internal economic structure develops in a more balanced manner [6]
拓宽健康险发展空间
Jing Ji Ri Bao· 2025-05-15 22:21
"随着社会老龄化的发展,慢病逐渐成为大众疾病谱的主要风险因素,也成为疾病经济负担的重要影响 因素。"谈及保险业参与慢病管理的价值和角色定位,中国人寿再保险有限责任公司总监董向兵表示, 保险业从业务端与投资端参与慢病管理,主要承担支付方和引流方两种角色,但目前仍面临产品吸引力 不足、客户触达效率低、产业融合不足以及政策支持不足等问题。建议完善产品设计、放宽承保端限 制,促进医疗数据与保险数据的有序互联与共享,推动商保与医保、医院、药械企业、药店以及慢病管 理运营商等多方深度融合。同时,加大政策支持的力度与针对性,进一步提升健康管理服务在产品费率 中的比重,扩大税优健康险的产品涵盖范围。 原银保监会副主席黄洪认为,商业健康保险在发展过程中,存在产品同质化严重、保障能力不足与医疗 体系协同不足、控费机制有待健全,以及风险定价能力欠缺、数据基础薄弱、科技应用水平滞后、服务 体验有待优化等短板。他建议,为推动商业健康保险高质量发展,一是要优化产品供给结构,满足多样 化需求;二是要深化医疗协同机制,构建利益共享生态;三是要强化科技赋能,提升风险管控能力;四 是要完善政策支持体系,激发市场活力。 (文章来源:经济日报) 4 ...
传星巴克(SBUX.US)拟出售中国业务股权 估值达数十亿美元
Zhi Tong Cai Jing· 2025-05-15 04:24
Core Insights - Starbucks is exploring the possibility of equity transfer for its China operations, engaging with multiple private equity funds and tech companies [1] - The estimated valuation of Starbucks' China business could reach several billion dollars, although the transaction has not yet progressed to a substantive stage [1] - Starbucks faces significant challenges in China, with its latest quarterly net income of approximately $740 million, compared to local competitor Luckin Coffee's $1.2 billion [1] - The competitive landscape in China is shifting, with local brands like Luckin and Kudi Coffee leveraging low pricing strategies and digital operations [1] Industry Context - Previous industry mergers and acquisitions, such as McDonald's partnership with CITIC Capital and Yum China's split, provide a reference for Starbucks' potential local partnerships [2] - These cases illustrate how foreign dining giants are adjusting their equity structures to balance global standards with local demands [2] - The capital market has reacted to Starbucks' strategic adjustments, with a 25% decline in market value since its peak on February 28, reflecting investor concerns over slowing growth [2] - The evaluation of Starbucks' business comes at a critical time for the Chinese coffee market, and its decisions may significantly influence the competitive landscape of the industry [2]
4月份社融新增1.16万亿元,同比多增1.22万亿元—— 融资总量增成本降支持实体经济
Jing Ji Ri Bao· 2025-05-14 22:00
Core Insights - The People's Bank of China reported an increase in social financing scale and broad money (M2) growth, indicating a stable and moderately loose monetary policy [1][2] - The acceleration in government bond issuance has been a significant driver of social financing growth, with net financing exceeding 500 billion yuan in April [1][3] - The shift in credit allocation towards small and micro enterprises and the manufacturing sector reflects a structural adjustment in the economy [3][4] Monetary and Financial Data - As of the end of April, the social financing scale reached 424 trillion yuan, growing by 8.7% year-on-year, while M2 stood at 325.17 trillion yuan, with an 8% increase [1] - New social financing in April amounted to 1.16 trillion yuan, which is approximately 1.22 trillion yuan more than the same period last year [1] - The balance of RMB loans was 265.7 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 7.2%, and the growth rate exceeded 8% after adjusting for local debt replacement [1][2] Government Bond Issuance - The net financing from government bonds in the first four months of the year surpassed 500 billion yuan, which is about 3.6 trillion yuan more than the previous year [1][3] - In April, the issuance of special government bonds and local government refinancing bonds contributed to a net financing of approximately 970 billion yuan, boosting the social financing growth rate by about 0.3 percentage points [1][3] Credit Structure and Allocation - The proportion of loans to small and micro enterprises increased from 31% to 38%, while loans to large and medium-sized enterprises decreased from 69% to 62% [3] - The allocation of credit has shifted towards the manufacturing and technology innovation sectors, with the share of manufacturing loans rising from 5.1% to 9.3% [3] - The interest rates for newly issued corporate loans and personal housing loans in April were approximately 3.2% and 3.1%, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of about 50 and 55 basis points, respectively [3] Future Outlook - Despite uncertainties in foreign trade and ongoing local debt replacement, the introduction of a package of financial policy measures is expected to boost market confidence and support the recovery of effective demand in the real economy [4] - Overall, the financial volume is anticipated to maintain steady growth in the near term [4]
对话资深外贸专家:关税暂缓后如何看待出口后续?
2025-05-15 15:05
对话资深外贸专家:关税暂缓后如何看待出口后续? 20250514 摘要 • 中美达成暂时削减关税协议,有助于缓解中国出口、失业及企业倒闭压力, 但仍保留至少 30%关税,未来三个月谈判结果至关重要,若失败美国或继 续加征关税。 • 中国外贸企业通过成本分摊等方式应对 30%关税,实际承担约 15%损失, 多数企业可维持贸易,但利润较低的劳动密集型商品仍面临困难,需积极 开拓新市场。 • 若未来三个月谈判失败,美国可能加征惩罚性关税,总关税或高达 54%甚 至更高,中国外贸将面临巨大压力,需积极寻求解决方案。 • 二季度中国出口增长,销售保持在 5%以上,预计五六月份出口将维持或 略低于四月份水平,实现 3%至 5%的增长,二季度经济增速有望不低于 5%。 • 中国对美贸易顺差巨大,美国要求中国调整贸易结构,关注国内产能过剩 问题,中国需认真对待并采取措施进行结构调整。 • 中国企业应积极开拓新市场,减少对美国市场的依赖,并考虑长期结构调 整,以适应未来的发展需求,同时与国外客户协商价格,维持生产。 • 扩大进口是未来重要措施,但国内消费疲弱限制了效果,需振兴国内消费、 解决居民收入问题、提高收入水平,并落实促 ...
周大生(002867) - 2025年5月13日投资者关系活动记录表
2025-05-13 14:52
代码:002867 证券简称:周大生 编号:2025-019 周大生珠宝股份有限公司 投资者关系活动记录表 投资者关系活动类别 □特定对象调研 □分析师会议 □媒体采访 √业绩说明会 □新闻发布会 □路演活动 □现场参观 □其他(电话会议) 参与单位名称 及人员姓名 参与"聚势湾区·智领消费——2024 年度大消费行业集体业绩说明会" 的全体投资者。 时 间 2025 年 5 月 13 日 地 点 深圳市全景网路演厅、"全景路演"网站(http://rs.p5w.net) 上市公司接待人员姓名 董事及副总经理:郭晋 董事会秘书及副总经理:何小林 独立董事:毛健 财务总监:许金卓 投资者关系活动 主要内容介绍 一、问答环节: 1:金价高位攀升抑制消费需求,公司如何在后期战略和策略上 进行调整,以提振销售和公司业绩? 答:去年金价急涨,对终端金饰的消费造成明显干扰,尤其是对 中高克重的金饰,冲击明显。在此背景下,终端客群的消费倾向和偏 好也发生一些转变,这让我们看到一些积极机会。去年我们部署了三 大战役,目前处于市场反击战,通过品牌矩阵和全域经营去抢夺市场 份额,把丢掉的利润和市场份额抢回来。下面我就从品牌矩阵发 ...