Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Japan reports that multiple regions express concerns over rising sales prices in the U.S. leading to decreased demand and a slowdown in the global economy [1] Group 1 - Companies are worried about the impact of rising sales prices in the U.S. on their demand [1] - There is a general concern regarding the slowdown of the global economy affecting business operations [1]

Group 1: Legislative Overview - The "Great Beauty Act" was passed by the U.S. House of Representatives with a narrow margin of 218 votes in favor and 214 against, and was signed into law by Trump on July 4, 2025[6] - The act is expected to increase the deficit by approximately $4.1 trillion over the next ten years, with tax cuts of about $4.5 trillion and spending cuts of around $1.4 trillion[12][13] Group 2: Market Impact - The market impact of the "Great Beauty Act" is expected to be limited in the short term, as the bond market has already priced in the information over the past two months[6] - The upcoming debt issuance is likely to be managed through short-term bonds, which will not significantly affect long-term bond supply and demand[6][18] Group 3: Economic Projections - The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) and the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget (CRFB) predict that the deficit rate will rise to between 6.4% and 7.1% over the next five fiscal years due to the act[29][28] - Neutral institutions expect the act to contribute an additional economic growth of between -0.1% and 1.1% over the next ten years, indicating a very mild upward impact on the economy[22][23] Group 4: Long-term Implications - The act is likely to force the market to reassess the "new normal" of the U.S. fiscal cycle, leading to a higher central pricing for long-term U.S. Treasury yields[27] - The current 10-year Treasury yield is estimated to be around 4.1%, which is above its fair value, suggesting that the yield may continue to rise in the short term[38][41]

日本央行：多个地区表示，美国关税对出口和产出的影响目前有限。 ...

特朗普的算盘打得啪啪响："美军在韩国驻扎，你们烤肉店生意好了，泡菜厂赚翻了，连夜店都多收了不少门票钱，这些钱都得算我们头上！" 2025年7月，白宫又出大新闻！特朗普拍着桌子对韩国喊话："你们的美军'保安'要涨价了！每年100亿美元，少一分都不行，否则我立刻撤走4500人！"这波 操作直接把韩国网友气炸了："我们交的钱都够买下半个首尔了，美国这是抢钱啊！" 第一刀：把韩国当"提款机"，连烤肉店都要算账？ 第三刀：盟友变仇人，日本菲律宾都在偷笑？ 韩国网友吐槽："这哪是保护费？这是'保护费+关税+精神损失费'三重套餐啊！" 第二刀：撤军是幌子，关岛才是真目标？ 历史账单：2024年韩国刚和美国签了新协议，答应每年给11.3亿美元当"保护费"。结果特朗普一上台就翻脸："拜登签的协议不算数！我要拿回属于美国的 每一分钱！" 特朗普嘴上说"撤军"，背后却藏着更大的棋局——把美军从韩国调去关岛，准备和中国在台海"死磕"！ 加码威胁：除了军费，特朗普还挥舞关税大棒："8月1日起，韩国进口商品加征25%关税！半导体、汽车、化妆品，统统涨价！除非你们开放市场，否则税 率还会更高！" 军事调兵：撤走的4500名美军，大概率会去 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Trump administration's immigration and education policies may lead to a potential loss of nearly $900 million in revenue for U.S. higher education institutions in the upcoming academic year, impacting not only their financial health but also the global education landscape and the international reputation of the U.S. [1][3] Group 1: Impact on U.S. Higher Education - International students are a significant source of revenue for U.S. colleges, contributing to tuition income and enhancing diversity and internationalization [3][4] - The Trump administration has tightened policies for foreign students, including restrictions on entry from certain countries and stricter visa scrutiny, which has led to a decline in international student enrollment [3][4] - The reliance on international students for both revenue and academic contributions highlights the vulnerability of U.S. colleges to these policy changes [4][6] Group 2: Broader Implications - The policies reflect deeper issues within the U.S. education system, including rising costs and stagnant domestic student numbers, which have diminished the competitiveness of U.S. higher education [6][9] - The potential loss of international students could lead to a global talent drain, with students seeking education in countries like Canada, Australia, and the UK instead [6][7] - The financial loss of $900 million may be just the tip of the iceberg, indicating a larger crisis in U.S. education and a shift in global talent mobility [7][9] Group 3: Globalization vs. Nationalism - Trump's policies illustrate the growing tension between globalization and nationalism, undermining the role of education as a bridge for cultural and knowledge exchange [9][10] - The decline in international student enrollment could hinder global knowledge sharing and collaboration, negatively affecting research and innovation [9][10] - U.S. higher education institutions must reassess their strategies to maintain global competitiveness while navigating the challenges posed by nationalist policies [10]

Core Viewpoint - The SPDR Gold Trust, the world's largest gold ETF, reported a total holding of 947.37 tons of gold as of July 9, 2025, reflecting an increase of 0.86 tons from the previous trading day. The fluctuations in gold prices are influenced by various factors including the strength of the US dollar, rising US Treasury yields, and investor sentiment regarding trade agreements [6]. Group 1: Gold ETF Holdings - As of July 9, 2025, SPDR Gold Trust holds 947.37 tons of gold, an increase of 0.86 tons from the previous day [6]. - The report indicates a significant change in gold ETF holdings, which is crucial for understanding market trends [1][3]. Group 2: Gold Price Movements - On July 9, gold prices experienced a drop to a low of $3282.91 per ounce before rebounding to close at $3313.5 per ounce, marking an increase of $11.94 or 0.36% [6]. - The price fluctuations were primarily driven by a strong US dollar and rising Treasury yields, alongside optimistic investor sentiment regarding trade agreements [6]. Group 3: Market Influences - The recent strength in employment data has dampened expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in July, leading to a significant unwinding of long positions in Treasury futures [6]. - The Federal Reserve's meeting minutes revealed a division among officials regarding the timing and necessity of future rate cuts, with most expecting a potential cut later in the year [6]. Group 4: Technical Analysis - The technical outlook for gold has weakened, with the price breaking the upward channel formed since mid-February [6]. - Key support levels are identified at $3297 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement) and $3200, while resistance is noted at $3345 (21-day moving average) and $3375 (23.6% Fibonacci level) [6].

图片来源： a16z Z Highlights Marc Andreessen 与 Ben Horowitz 是 a16z 联合创始人，长期在硅谷风险投资界引领技术叙事、推动公司演化， Erik Torenberg 为 a16z 普通合伙人，主持本 场对谈。本次对谈录制于 2025 年 a16z LP 峰会现场，聚焦 a16z 如何应对 AI 浪潮、重塑风投模型与媒体影响力。 a16z 第一阶段：用 " 产品思维 " 重塑风险投资 Erik Torenberg ： 欢迎来到 Marc 和 Ben 的现场访谈。我们最喜欢的风险投资 " 夫妇 " 又来了。说他们是 " 夫妇 " 是有点玩笑成分的，他们的关系并不总 是那么和谐，浪漫更是早已消散 —— 但这正是我们喜欢看的。好吧， Ben ，我们来聊聊公司的发展。你最近提到，自从 2009 年公司创立以来，整个风险 投资行业经历的变化，比此前 30 年还要剧烈。那你说说看，我们公司的 " 第一幕 " 和 " 第二幕 " 分别是什么？ Ben Horowitz ： 我们现在正处在什么位置？第一幕嘛，其实我们进入的，是一个几十年来从未真正发生变化的风险投资行业。风险投资 ...

本文来自彭博终端。非终端用户可点击文末 "阅读原文" 预约演示。 伴随行业飞速发展、地缘政治博弈、供需天平摇摆…全球能源市场时刻处于动荡之中。彭博行 业研究（Bloomberg Intelligence）为您及时传递行业动态，并基于高质量数据、模型与分析 助您解读市场变化，看见全局、看向前景。 扫描二维码 立即订阅 彭博能源行业研究双周报 2025年6月全球矿业市场回顾 铜矿增长预期可能过于乐观 根据公司指引、一致预期和彭博行业研究，我们所涵盖的1 7家铜生产商（矿产铜产量占全球 供应量的4 5%）预计未来五年的复合年增长率将达到2 . 9%，到2 0 2 6年将增长6 - 6 . 5%。这与 过去五年约1%的复合年增长率大相径庭。2 0 2 6年产量大幅提升的关键因素包括：第一量子 矿业（First Qu a n t um）重启其科布雷巴拿马（Co b r e Pa n ama）矿场、艾芬豪（I v a n h o e） 的Kamo a -Ka k u l a在地震事件后的产量恢复、力拓（Ri o）旗下蒙古奥尤陶勒盖（Oy u To l g o i）铜矿产量增加、全球最大的铜矿埃斯康迪达（Es c o n ...

周三，美国总统特朗普再次批评美联储主席鲍威尔， 称美联储设定的利率至少偏高3个百分 点。他呼吁美联储降息以帮助降低偿还国家债务成本 。这是鲍威尔连续第二天批评鲍威尔。 此前一天，特朗普在内阁会议发表讲话时表示，鲍威尔应立即辞职。他指责称，鲍威尔几个月 来一直在抱怨根本不存在的通胀，拒绝采取正确的行动。 交易员预计，特朗普的批评不会改变联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）在7月会议上的决策。据 CME"美联储观察"，美联储7月维持利率不变的概率高达93.3.7%，而降息25个基点的概率 仅为6.7%。 美国副财长：希望鲍威尔卸任美联储理事 周三，美国财政部副部长迈克尔·福尔肯德也对鲍威尔发起攻击。他表示， 自己希望看到鲍威 尔在明年5月其主席任期结束后，从美联储理事会卸任 。 特朗普称，鲍威尔设定的利率(高出的)每个百分点，每年就会给美国造成了3600亿美元的再 融资成本。 "我们的美联储利率至少高了3个百分点，" 特朗普在Truth Social上写道。他表示， 美国当前"没有通胀，公司涌入美国"，并呼吁"降低利率" 。 美国联邦基金利率目标区间目前为4.25%-4.50%。如果美联储按照特朗普呼吁的幅度降息， 利 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 豆粕早报 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 近期要闻 2025-07-10 大越期货投资咨询部：王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询资格证号：Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 3 多空关注 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 ✸豆粕观点和策略 1.基本面：美豆震荡回落，美豆生长天气良好丰产预期压制盘面，美豆短期千点关口上方震 荡等待中美关税谈判后续和美国大豆产区生长天气进一步指引。国内豆粕探底回升，美 豆带动和技术性震荡整理，6月进口大豆到港增多和现货价格弱势压制盘面，短期回归区 间震荡格局。中性 2.基差：现货2780（华东），基差-167，贴水期货。偏空 3.库存：油厂豆粕库存82.24万吨，上周69.16万吨，环比增加18.91%，去年同期108.27万吨， 同比减少34.32%。偏多 4.盘面：价格在20日均线下方且方向向下。偏空 ...