Core Viewpoint - The key challenge for the next chairperson appointed by Trump will be to persuade the committee to view issues from their perspective [1] Group 1 - The next chairperson will need to navigate the complexities of the Federal Reserve's decision-making process [1] - There is an emphasis on the importance of aligning the committee's views with those of the new chairperson [1]

Core Viewpoint - The potential candidates for the next Federal Reserve Chair are being discussed, with a focus on their policy implications and the timing of the nomination process, which may occur as early as this fall [1][3]. Candidate Summaries - **Kevin Walsh: "Consensus" Candidate** - Many clients view Kevin Walsh as the clear favorite for the next Fed Chair, despite his historically hawkish stance on Fed policies, which has raised concerns about inflation linked to tariffs [3]. - **Kevin Hassett: Rising Star** - Kevin Hassett, former Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers, is seen as a strong candidate due to his conservative background and potential support from Republican lawmakers. His approach may align with the government's goal of a more dovish monetary policy [5]. - **Christopher Waller: Long-Term Candidate** - Christopher Waller, a Fed Governor since 2020, has recently adopted a more dovish perspective. He is considered a long-term candidate, with the potential to advocate for lowering interest rates to neutral levels if appointed [7]. - **Janet Yellen: Difficult Trade-Off** - Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen's potential candidacy raises questions about her influence on government policy if she transitions to the Fed. Her current role may provide better opportunities to achieve long-term yield reduction goals [9]. - **Dark Horses** - Other candidates may emerge in the coming months, including Stephen Moore and Jim Bullard, as well as potential nominations from Wall Street figures not currently in the spotlight [10].

Core Viewpoint - Former U.S. Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers anticipates that Trump will nominate a mainstream candidate to succeed Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, despite Trump's previous criticisms of Powell for not lowering interest rates this year [1] Group 1 - Summers expressed surprise if Trump's choice is not seen as a rational candidate by unbiased observers [1] - He indicated that financial markets would react quickly once the nomination news is released, showing greater confidence in Trump's decision-making [1] - Powell's term as chairman is set to end in May 2026, and Trump has stated that the next nominee will be announced soon [1] Group 2 - Treasury Secretary Scott Bentsen mentioned that interviews for candidates to replace Powell are expected to take place around the fall [1] - Potential candidates reported in the media include Bentsen himself and former Federal Reserve Governor Kevin Warsh [1]

Core Viewpoint - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell stated that there are currently no considerations regarding his future plans after the end of his term [1] Group 1 - Powell's remarks indicate a focus on current responsibilities rather than future career moves [1]

Core Viewpoint - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell has stated that he is not currently considering future arrangements after the end of his term as chairman [1] Group 1 - Powell's comments indicate a focus on current responsibilities rather than future plans, suggesting stability in leadership at the Federal Reserve [1]

美国总统特朗普表示，他将很快提名美联储主席的继任者，而鲍威尔的任期还有将近一年才结束。投资 者表示，这可能给市场带来一个危险的命题。 自今年1月开始第二个任期以来，特朗普毫不掩饰他对鲍威尔及美联储不降息的不满。尽管特朗普已收 回今年早些时候可能解雇鲍威尔的言论，且美国最高法院最近的一项裁决也缓解了人们对他这样做的担 忧，但他本月早些时候表示，关于下一任美联储主席的决定将很快做出。 投资者表示，在鲍威尔任期于2026年5月结束前提早这么久就宣布继任者，可能会在市场中引发严重不 安。 瑞银全球财富管理的美洲资产配置主管Jason Draho表示，如果在未来几个月内宣布一个非传统的美联储 人选，将给市场带来一个潜在的风险。他说，"如果人们对这一切可能如何演变过于自满，那么这个风 险是存在的。" 在美联储理事库格勒的任期于明年1月结束前，美联储没有空缺席位可供特朗普临时填补。 话虽如此，美联储主席只是货币政策制定委员会的18名成员之一，其部分职责是在委员会内部建立共 识。 Ritholtz Wealth Management的首席市场策略师Callie Cox表示，市场希望看到的美联储主席是能够"高度 专注"于经济平 ...

智通财经APP获悉，美国总统特朗普表示，他将在美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔任期结束前近一年时提名 继任者。投资者认为这可能给市场带来风险。 特朗普毫不掩饰对鲍威尔和美联储自他1月开始第二任期以来未降息的不满。尽管特朗普已收回今年早 些时候可能解雇鲍威尔的言论，且近期美国最高法院的裁决缓解了相关担忧，但他在本月早些时候表 示，将很快决定下任美联储主席人选。 投资者称，在鲍威尔2026年5月任期结束前很久就宣布这一消息，可能会引发市场严重不安。一个与现 任央行领导人在货币政策上观点可能冲突的"影子"美联储主席可能会造成混乱。 鉴于投资者普遍认为美联储的独立性对其正常运作至关重要，任何被视为受特朗普控制的选择都会令华 尔街感到恐慌。 联博首席美国经济学家埃里克·维诺格拉德表示，"无论任命谁，关键是要看他们是否被视为政治任 命，""我指的是那些观点随总统心血来潮而改变的人。" 制定美国货币政策并负责维持充分就业和物价稳定的美联储主席是华尔街最关注的政府官员之一。不 过，美联储主席只是央行货币政策制定委员会18名成员之一，其部分职责是在委员会内建立共识。 瑞银全球财富管理美洲资产配置主管杰森·德拉霍表示，如果在未来几个月内 ...

Group 1 - U.S. interest rate traders are betting that the Federal Reserve will shift to a more dovish monetary policy after the current Chairman Jerome Powell's term ends in May 2026, with expectations of rate cuts as early as June 2026 [1] - The market anticipates that the Federal Reserve will maintain interest rates at its upcoming meeting and may lower its expectations for rate cuts this year due to upward pressure on prices from tariffs [1] - Traders are focusing on futures linked to the Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR), which has seen a surge in trading volume following Trump's announcement of a forthcoming nomination for the next Fed Chair [1] Group 2 - The strategy for betting on interest rate futures includes shorting SOFR futures expiring in March 2026 while going long on those expiring in June 2026, creating a typical "three-month spread trade" [2] - On Monday, the trading volume for this strategy reached 108,649 contracts, with open interest for March and June contracts hitting the highest levels of the current policy cycle, indicating strong demand for this strategy [2] - The relative price of the March contract has weakened significantly compared to the December 2025 and June 2026 contracts, leading to the highest price spread since January [2] Group 3 - Analysts suggest that Trump may choose a successor who supports loose monetary policy, which could complicate the nomination process in Congress [5] - Concerns have been raised about the potential for a "shadow" Fed Chair if Trump nominates a successor before Powell's term ends, leading to mixed signals that could undermine market confidence in U.S. policy-making [5] - It is important to note that the Federal Reserve's monetary policy is collectively decided by the Federal Open Market Committee, and the Chair does not unilaterally set policy rates [5]

美联储主席鲍威尔的第二个任期即将于明年6月画上句号。这位曾以"渐进加息"和"抗击通胀"为标签的 掌舵者，如今正面临来自白宫的前后夹击。 美国总统特朗普与副总统万斯近期频繁敦促美联储降息，与此同时，白宫已经在物色下一任美联储主席 的人选。特朗普近日表示，将很快任命继任者。 现任财长贝森特一度被传为最热门候选人，但白宫迅速否认这一传闻。 随着美国债务规模突破36万亿美元，联邦政府每年需支付1.2万亿美元利息，降息成为缓解财政压力 的"捷径"。 特朗普政府近期频繁敦促美联储降息： 6月6日，美国非农就业数据公布后，特朗普说，"美联储的'太迟先生'是场灾难！欧洲已经降息10次， 我们一次都没有。若通胀卷土重来，加息应对就好。" 6月11日，美国消费者价格指数（CPI）报告公布后，特朗普表示， CPI最新数据表现理想，呼吁美联储 将利率下调一个百分点。如此一来，美国在即将到期的债务利息上将节省大量支出，这非常重要。万斯 当天也以"通胀放缓至0.1%"为由加入施压阵营，将美联储推向政治风暴中心。 这场权力更迭的背后，不仅是候选人个人资历的较量，更是美国货币政策未来方向的抉择：是坚守独立 性，还是向政治压力妥协？ 施压鲍威 ...

随着2024年下半年展开，金融市场仍将受到高额财政赤字和关税政策不确定性的主导，而债券收益率预 计将继续扮演"方向盘"的角色，延续上半年间歇性的主导地位。 然而，市场波动性可能会在6月过后进入夏季时再次上升。投资者将开始聚焦于总统特朗普即将公布的 下一任美联储主席人选。尽管现任主席鲍威尔的任期要到2026年5月才结束，特朗普预计将大大提前作 出人事任命。 特朗普一再批评鲍威尔在利率问题上的政策，尤其是在本周公布的最新通胀数据低于预期之后。数据显 示，美国5月消费者物价指数(CPI)同比上涨2.4%，低于市场预期，特朗普借机重申应大幅降息的主张。 鲍威尔则坚持观望态度，称美联储正等待进一步观察通胀是否会重新抬头。 智通财经APP获悉，PGIM固定收益联合首席投资官Greg Peters表示，提前任命美联储主席"极为罕见"， 此举可能导致市场波动上升，推动美债收益率曲线的长期端上行。他指出，由于美联储是"一个极其重 要的机构"，任何不寻常的任命都可能对市场产生"长期影响"。 不过Peters也指出，联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)是一个由七名委员组成的委员会，主席仅占一票。他补 充道："市场现在普遍认为，无论谁接任 ...