Group 1 - The market's expectation for a Federal Reserve rate cut in September has increased, leading to a decline in the US dollar, which has hit a three-year low, supporting a rise in gold prices [1][2] - Gold prices have rebounded after hitting a one-month low, with three consecutive days of increases, reaching a weekly high [2][4] - The recent pressure from President Trump on the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates to between 0.5% and 1.75% has contributed to the downward pressure on the dollar and the rise in gold prices [2] Group 2 - Technical indicators suggest that gold has further rebound potential, with support levels at $3350 and $3333, and resistance levels at $3380 and $3400 [4] - The recent ADP employment data has raised concerns about the US economic outlook, which may lead to an earlier-than-expected rate cut by the Federal Reserve, further supporting gold prices [4]

美东时间周三，三大指数仅道指微跌， 标普500指数和纳指双双刷新历史收盘新高。 （三大指数分钟线图，来源：TradingView） 分析师指出，非农数据也低于预期，美联储本月下旬的议息会议上或将讨论降息可能。 与此同时，市场也关注特朗普提出的税收与支出法案。该法案周二在参议院以微弱优势通过， 目前已送回众议院，但部分共和党议员仍持反对意见。 甲骨文大涨5%，消息称该公司与OpenAI扩大合作，将在美国建立更多数据中心。 特斯拉涨5%，该公司Q2交付数据高于市场的悲观预测区间。 耐克涨4%，该公司在越南有代工厂。 截至收盘，道琼斯指数跌0.02%，报44,484.42点；标普500指数涨0.47%，报6,227.42点； 纳斯达克指数涨0.94%，报20,393.13点。 美国总统特朗普周三在其自创社交媒体平台Truth Social发文称，美国与越南达成贸易协议， 将对从越南进口的商品征收20%的关税。 特朗普还称，对于所谓"转口贸易"（即原产于其他国家、经越南转运的商品），越南商品将面 临更高的40%关税。 美越达成贸易协议在一定程度上提振了市场情绪 ，但早些时候公布的ADP就业报告显示，美 国私营部门在6 ...

跟踪美国ADP数据，美联储降息预期攀升，黄金欲上3350？点击观看GMA指标直播分析 相关链接 GMA直播 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货贵金属有色早报（2025 年 7 月 2 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 黄金 | 2508 | 下跌 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 观望 | 降息预期和关税预期升温，利好 金价 | | 铜 | 2508 | 上涨 | 上涨 | 上涨 | 短线看强 | 宏观风险偏好回升，铜价上行 | 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 核心逻辑：昨日金价反弹明显，亚洲盘收市后，外盘持续反弹，内外金价再度回升至 60 日均线上方。 近期市场降息预期升温，美元指数持续走弱，这很大程度上给予金价支撑。消息面上，美联储主席鲍 威尔在葡萄牙辛特拉的欧洲经济论坛上称，无法断言 7 月降息是否为时过早，但强调"不会预先排除 任何会议的可能性"，下一步行动将完全取决于数据表现。Fed ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the importance of stop-loss strategies in trading, suggesting that holding onto losing positions is always a mistake [1] - Recent fluctuations in gold prices have shown a significant rebound, with gold rising over $110 in just two trading days, indicating a volatile market environment [3][5] - The current market dynamics suggest that gold's upward movement may face resistance around the $3320-$3325 range, with potential for further increases if this level is breached [3][7] Group 2 - The analysis indicates that the recent surge in gold prices is linked to expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and upcoming economic data releases, particularly the non-farm payrolls [5][7] - The dollar index has been on a downward trend, which may continue to influence gold prices, with a focus on the $96.5 level as a critical support area [5][7] - Short-term trading strategies are recommended, with support at the $3320 level and resistance around $3355, suggesting a range-bound trading approach [7][8]

Group 1 - Gold prices are stabilizing after two days of rebound, hovering below a one-week high, influenced by a slight recovery in the dollar and improved market risk appetite, but limited by expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts and trade uncertainties [1] - The international gold market shows a bullish sentiment with a long upper shadow in the monthly candlestick, indicating significant selling pressure above, while the market is closely watching for U.S. data and comments from President Trump regarding rate cuts [2] - Short-term resistance for gold is identified in the 3355-3360 range, with potential upward targets of 3375-3380 and 3400, while support is seen at the 3315 level, below which further declines could occur [4] Group 2 - The domestic gold market, including Shanghai gold and other products, has seen a recent increase, with significant profits noted from previous bottom-buying strategies, although a temporary pullback is expected [4] - Support levels for Shanghai gold are around 775, while for other products, it is at 766, with expectations of continued upward movement after the current adjustment phase [4] - The overall bullish trend remains intact, with targets set at 795 for Shanghai gold and 790 for other products, indicating a need for patience among investors [4]

7月2日国内黄金市场动态：品牌金店首饰金价整体持稳，部分金店金价继续上涨。具体来看，老凤祥黄 金今日又涨7元/克，报价1006元/克，成为新的最高价金店。上海中国黄金不涨不跌，报价956元/克，为 最低价金店。今日品牌金店价差50元/克（1006元/克-956元/克），价差再次拉大。 具体各大品牌金店最新价格见下表格： | 今日金店黄金回收价格一览（2025年7月2日） | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 回收报价 | 今日金价 | 单位 | | 黄金 | 757.30 | 元/克 | | 菜百黄金 | 752.90 | 元/克 | | 周生生黄金 | 751.60 | 元/克 | | 周大福黄金 | 755.00 | 元/克 | | 老凤祥黄金 | 760.50 | 元/克 | 说完首饰黄金价格，我们再来讲讲国际金价情况： 昨日现货黄金盘中一路上行，最高涨至了3257.78美元/盎司，最终收报3338.17美元/盎司，涨幅1.07%。 今日金价暂时震荡，截至发稿，现货黄金暂报3338.96美元/盎司，涨幅0.02%。 昨日金价大幅回升，主要是美国参议院通过了特朗普的"大而美"减税与支出法 ...

| H 等 市 路 参 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 逻辑观点精粹及策略参考 | 趋势研判 | 行业板块 | 品种 | 短期来看,在情绪和流动性的驱动下偏强震荡的概率较高,后续 | | | 关注宏观增量信息对股指方向的指引。 | 资产带和弱经济利好情期。但短期央行提示利率风险,压制上涨 | 国债) | | | | | 空间。 | 宏观金融 | 市场不确定性再起,金价企稳反弹。 | 看多 | 真金 | | | 宏观和商品属性或仍对银价有支撑。但基本面或仍会限制其空间 | 白银 | 近期市场风险偏好回升,叠加海外美铜及伦铜挤仓行情发酵,短 | | | | | 看头 | 국미 | 期铜价偏强。 | 近期市场情绪有所好转,叠加电解铝库存低位运行,铝价偏强运 | | | | TT. | 美联储降息预期提升,市场风险偏好回归,商品价格上行,氧化。 | 氧化铝 | 看多 | | | | 铝短期偏强。 | 火烧云投产,预计9月底出锭,此外全球第五大炼厂罢工仅影响生 | | | | | | 产3天,对供应影响有限,短期锌受消息影响下跌。此外铜价大涨 | ...

花旗策略师David Bieber认为，美债的持续多头建仓仍在继续，并表示在过去一周多头头寸积累后，战 术性持仓现已"高度延伸至单边"状态。 债券交易员在近几周快速建立美债多头头寸，押注周四公布的就业报告将为市场涨势提供更多动力。 本周四发布的6月非农就业报告将是美债多头面临的下一个重大风险事件。多头投资者已经历了一次小 型压力测试：周二公布的JOLTS职位空缺报告显示5月数据意外大幅上升，这一劳动力市场强劲信号引 发了债市抛售。 Columbia Threadneedle Investment全球利率策略师Ed Al-Hussainy表示，市场"前端有些偏多头，7月降息 概率在Bowman和Waller最近表态后约为20%"。他补充称，"如果就业数据超预期——比如非农就业人 数接近20万——（7月降息）这一概率可能降至零"。 风险提示及免责条款 如果就业数据表现强劲，当前的单边多头持仓可能面临大幅回调——交易员可能会在劳动力市场状况无 法支撑美联储最早下月降息预期时，寻求平仓。 市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文不构成个人投资建议，也未考虑到个别用户特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要。用户应考虑本文中的任何 意见、观 ...

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's expectation of interest rate cuts is rising, while the Swiss National Bank (SNB) maintains a hawkish stance, leading to a significant depreciation of the USD/CHF exchange rate, reaching a 14-year low [1] - Weak economic data from the US, including declines in personal consumption and income, raises concerns for the Federal Reserve, complicating its inflation outlook [3] - The CME FedWatch Tool indicates a 92.4% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve this year, up from 70% a week prior [3] Group 2 - The Swiss National Bank's recent comments suggest a potential for maintaining negative interest rates, despite having lowered the policy rate to 0% for the sixth consecutive time [4] - The KOF leading indicator for Switzerland dropped to 96.1 in June, significantly below both May's 98.6 and market expectations of 99.3, indicating ongoing economic weakness [4] - The SNB's cautious outlook on global trade and a projected GDP growth of only 1%-1.5% for Switzerland this year provide support for the Swiss franc amidst rising geopolitical tensions and increased market uncertainty [4]