Group 1: US-China Trade Negotiations - The US and China reached partial agreement on export controls, with the US lifting restrictions on EDA software and aircraft engines, while China eased controls on certain materials[4] - The core issues in US-China trade talks include a 20% tariff on fentanyl and a 24% deferred tariff, with expectations that the 20% tariff may be reduced, but the 24% tariff will require longer negotiations[5] - The deadline for trade negotiations is July 9, with potential outcomes affecting the future of the fentanyl tariff discussions[5] Group 2: US Trade Agreements with Other Countries - The US has reached trade agreements with Vietnam and Cambodia, but negotiations with the EU, Japan, India, and Canada have not made significant progress[3] - The US plans to impose a 40% tariff on re-exported goods from Vietnam, which may set a precedent for future agreements with other countries regarding China[6] - The Trump administration is expected to adopt a strategy of "increasing some tariffs while delaying others" to exert pressure on trade negotiation countries[5] Group 3: Tariff and Trade Policy Implications - Future unfavorable tariff clauses against China may include increased tariffs on re-exported goods, reduced supply chain reliance on China, and anti-dumping investigations targeting specific industries[6] - The US is accelerating Section 232 investigations, focusing on key industries such as pharmaceuticals and copper, with existing tariffs of 50% on steel and aluminum and 25% on automobiles[33] - The potential for a judicial battle over tariffs could shift the trade war paradigm from comprehensive tariffs to targeted structural tariffs[6]

柬埔寨副总理：美国关税从49%降至36%对柬埔寨来说是第一阶段谈判的巨大成功。 ...

但问题在于，即使达成了初步协议，欧盟的困境也远未解除。从以往经验来看，特朗普政府在贸易政策 上存在高度不可预测性，即使口头达成协议，也可能在未来某个时间点被随意搁置或重新谈判。欧盟想 以此争取谈判空间，但美国显然把这当作拉拢与分化对手的策略。对特朗普来说，在全球施压的同时给 出欧盟一个"相对温和"的选项，既能制造谈判成果，也能增加对其他贸易对象的施压效果。 更重要的是，欧盟此刻的让步也暴露出其在谈判桌上的被动姿态。缺乏统一的外交博弈机制、对内产业 诉求难以调和、能源与通胀的压力持续，这些都让欧盟难以在与美对话中展现真正的战略自主。而美国 看得很清楚这一点，不断用关税作为杠杆推动欧盟妥协。 随着特朗普政府设定的"对等关税"实施日期临近，欧盟方面正加紧与美国磋商，希望在8月1日之前敲定 一项初步贸易协议，以避免关键产业被纳入更高关税的打击范围。据知情人士透露，此轮谈判的重点之 一，是争取将航空器及其零部件、葡萄酒和烈酒等高附加值出口商品排除在10%的关税之外。欧盟显然 希望在更长期的谈判中争取主动，同时为本土产业争取缓冲期。 DLSMARKETS分析这一策略背后的考量并不复杂。特朗普此前已宣布将从8月1日起对多国 ...

Core Viewpoint - The UK is expected to miss the July 9 deadline for steel and aluminum trade negotiations with the US, but there is still hope for an agreement by the end of the month [1] Group 1: Negotiation Status - The UK government and industry insiders indicate that an agreement with the US on metal trade will not be reached by the July 9 deadline set by the White House [1] - Previous commitments suggested that an agreement was imminent as of late June, but negotiations have stalled [1] Group 2: Potential Outcomes - If an agreement is reached, current tariffs of 25% on steel and aluminum could potentially be reduced to zero [1] - The Trump administration had warned that failure to reach an agreement by the deadline could result in increasing tariffs to 50%, applicable to most countries [1] - Despite the stalled negotiations, government insiders believe that an agreement can still be achieved by the end of July, and they do not expect the White House to impose the 50% tariffs in the short term [1]

Group 1 - The core issue is the decline in China-Russia trade, with a 6.6% year-on-year decrease in early 2025, particularly in the automotive and energy sectors [1] - Russia has implemented a flexible export tax policy linked to the ruble, raising the export tax on fertilizers to 10%, which has not been communicated to China, indicating a shift in their trade relationship [3] - In Q1 2025, China imported 24.31 million tons of crude oil from Russia, a 14.7% year-on-year decrease, reflecting a change in strategic attitudes rather than just procurement issues [3] Group 2 - The automotive sector is facing challenges as Russia has closed its market to Chinese electric vehicles, forcing Chinese companies to pivot to Central Asian markets like Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan [5] - In April 2025, China imported 8.07 million tons of crude oil from Russia, accounting for 16.8% of total imports that month, a 12.9% year-on-year decrease, driven by both energy efficiency initiatives and Russia's export policy changes [5] - China is no longer offering concessions on coal imports from Russia, as domestic coal production is significant, and lowering tariffs could harm local coal companies [5] Group 3 - Despite visible cooperation in agriculture and technology, trade dynamics are shifting, with a 6.8% decline in China-Russia trade in Q1 2025, indicating a potential reduction in Russia's reliance on the Chinese market [7] - The changing trade relationship is characterized as a negotiation for rebalancing interests, with China needing to stabilize domestic demand and export routes while Russia aims to control inflation and stabilize the ruble through export policies [9] - The current state of affairs suggests a need for a long-term negotiation-based partnership between China and Russia, moving beyond previous informal agreements [9]

2025.07. 08 本文字数：2132，阅读时长大约4分钟 作者 | 第一财 经 潘寅茹 当地时间7日，美国总统特朗普再度挥舞"关税大棒"。据央视新闻报道，7日，美国总统特朗普在社 交媒体平台上发布了致日本首相石破茂、韩国总统李在明的信件，宣布美国将自2025年8月1日起对 所有日本和韩国输美产品征收25%的关税。 在这两封内容几乎完全相同的信中，特朗普写道："请理解，25%这一数字远远低于消除我们与贵国 之间贸易逆差所需的水平。"他还警告称，如果日韩两国以提高关税作为回应，美国也将在25%的基 础上再提高同等额度的关税。 韩国通商产业部在发布的新闻稿中表示，李在明政府成立不久，本着国家利益优先的原则同美方就关 税问题展开了谈判，但因时间有限，难以就所有议题达成共识。美方新举措意味着美方暂缓征收所 谓"对等关税"至8月1日，将在剩余时间内加快谈判进程，力争达成互利共赢的谈判成果，尽早消除 关税问题引发的不确定性。 韩国通商产业部还提出，将推动国内制度改革，并优化监管体系，以减少美国对韩贸易逆差。 目前，从日本和韩国政府的公开回应来看，都提到将力争在8月1日前加紧谈判。不过，接受第一财 经记者采访的日韩问题 ...

据央视新闻，美国总统特朗普7日表示，将从8月1日起分别对来自日本、韩国等14个国家的进口产品征 收25%至40%不等的关税。这一决定立即引发了受影响国家的回应，从寻求对话到强硬反制，国际贸易 关系面临新的挑战。 分析认为，尽管多国积极寻求化解危机，但此前的努力似乎并未显著影响最终结果，这使得未来的贸易 关系走向充满不确定性。 日本：对关税表示"遗憾"，韩国对谈判留有余地 据央视新闻，美东时间7月7日周一，特朗普在社交媒体平台上发布了致日本首相石破茂、韩国总统李在 明的信件，表示美国将自2025年8月1日起对所有日本和韩国产品征收25%的关税。 日本方面在对美方举动表示"遗憾"的同时，也明确传达了继续谈判的意愿，并认为在8月1日的最后期限 前仍有转圜余地。 据央广网，8日，日本首相石破茂称，美方公布的信息令人遗憾。此外，石破茂做出指示，继续与美方 就关税进行谈判。 日本和韩国对美方决定表示"遗憾"，但均表达了通过谈判解决问题的意愿。日本首相石破茂已指示继续 与美方就关税问题进行谈判，认为在最后期限前仍有修改信函内容的可能性。韩国方面则誓言加速关税 谈判进程，以"迅速解决贸易不确定性"。 与此同时，亚洲多国普遍感 ...

环球市场动态 美 越 谈 判 协 议 反 映 美 国 主 要 诉 求 股 票 周一 A 股表现不佳，医药股走弱； 港股全日弱势震荡，尾盘拉升但未 能转涨；欧洲股市涨跌互现，市场 密切关注关税谈判进展；特朗普公 布最新关税，美股从历史高点回落。 外 汇 / 商 品 沙特意外上调主要品级原油价格， 周一国际油价上涨超 1%；关税风 险拖累伦敦工业金属期货齐跌，国 际金价先跌后回稳。 欧 美 市 场 | 欧美主要指数 | | | | | | 主要指数 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 收盘点位 | 1日涨跌 (%) | 120 | | | 巴西圣保罗证交所指数 | | | | | 指数 | | | 44,406.4 | (0.9) | | | | 欧元区斯托克 600 | | | | | 道琼斯 | | | | | 115 | | | 英国富时100 | | | | | | | | 6,230.0 | (0.8) | 110 | | 标普500 | | | | | | 标 ...

免责声明 局势升温或带动金价反弹。 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 加速全球去美元化进程，削弱美元作为传统避险资产的需求，提振黄金货币属性。中长期而言，美国财政 研究员: 廖宏斌 期货从业资格号F3082507 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0020723 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 赤字持续扩大、美元信用边际弱化、全球央行储备调整趋势未改，构成黄金价格的核心支撑，短期内关税 贵金属产业日报 2025-07-08 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 沪金主力合约收盘价(日,元/克) | 776.22 | 4.92 沪银主力合约收盘价(日,元/千克) | 8953 | 81 | | | 主力合约持仓量:沪金(日, ...

Core Viewpoint - Germany's exports have declined for the second consecutive month, with a significant drop of 7.7% in exports to the U.S., marking the lowest level in over three years, highlighting the ongoing impact of tariff threats on Europe's largest economy [1][3]. Group 1: Export Data - In May, Germany's goods exports fell by 1.4% month-on-month, exceeding the expected decline of 0.5% [1]. - Exports to the U.S. plummeted by 7.7%, with a value of €12.1 billion, the lowest since March 2022 [3]. - In April, U.S. tariffs had already caused a decline of approximately 10% in German exports to the U.S. [3]. Group 2: Economic Outlook - Joachim Nagel, the President of the German Central Bank, warned of significant short-term economic challenges, with the bank projecting that the German economy will stagnate this year [4][5]. - Despite the challenges, there is some optimism due to the German government's plans to significantly increase defense and infrastructure spending [6]. Group 3: Trade Negotiations - The EU is actively seeking to alleviate tariff pressures through trade negotiations, aiming to lock in a 10% tariff rate before the August 1 deadline [4][8]. - Reports indicate that the EU is close to reaching a preliminary trade agreement with the U.S. to secure a 10% tariff rate, with no indication of increased tariffs for the EU [9]. Group 4: Economic Performance - In the first quarter, Germany's GDP grew by 0.4%, surpassing expectations, partly due to exporters increasing shipments before U.S. tariffs took effect [7]. - Recent data showed an unexpected rise in Germany's industrial output in May, supporting hopes for the economy to recover from years of stagnation [7].