有色早报 研究中心有色团队 2025/07/10 铜 ： 日期 沪铜现货 升贴水 废精铜 价差 上期所 库存 沪铜 仓单 现货进口 盈利 三月进口 盈利 保税库 premium 提单 premium 伦铜 C-3M LME 库存 LME 注销仓单 2025/07/03 110 1459 81550 24103 -1000.59 26.46 30.0 49.0 87.61 94325 31900 2025/07/04 105 1223 84589 22307 -974.44 138.45 30.0 52.0 95.35 95275 33950 2025/07/07 100 1001 84589 21682 -1002.36 174.64 29.0 63.0 79.80 97400 36875 2025/07/08 80 1048 84589 19109 -844.96 44.77 29.0 63.0 51.31 102500 37100 2025/07/09 60 502 84589 21336 -437.33 412.81 40.0 65.0 22.37 107125 38250 变化 -20 -546 0 ...

联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC） 于 2025 年 6 月 17-18 日举行的会议纪要，为我们提供了美 联储内部对当前经济状况、未来展望以及货币政策路径的最新思考。本次会议的核心决策是 维持 联邦基金利率目标区间在 4.25% 至 4.5% 不变，并继续推进 资产负债表缩减。然而， 纪要的价值不仅在于决策本身，更在于其揭示了委员会在复杂经济环境下所面临的挑战、内 部的观点分歧以及对关键风险因素的评估。 当前经济状况：韧性与隐忧并存 首先，纪要对当前经济状况的描述呈现出一幅既有韧性又不乏隐忧的画面。工作人员和与会者普遍认 同，尽管受到净出口波动的影响，经济活动在第二季度仍保持了「稳健」的扩张步伐。劳动力市场被描 述为「稳固」，失业率维持在低位，接近委员会对最大就业的估计。这表明，尽管经历了过去几年的紧 缩周期，美国经济并未如一些预期那样显著放缓或陷入衰退。 然而，纪要也捕捉到了一些潜在的疲软信号：企业和家庭信心指标持续低迷（尽管近期略有回升），企 业对启动新的大型投资项目持谨慎态度，制造业活动出现放缓迹象，以及部分低收入家庭面临的压力。 这些细微的观察提醒我们，经济的表层稳健可能掩盖了结构性或部门性的脆弱性。 ...

关注意信公众号 | *业期现日报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 容询业务资格:证监许可 【2011】1292号 | | | | 徐艺丹 Z0020017 | | | 铁矿石相关价格及价差 | | | | | | | 品种 | 现值 | 前值 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | 仓单成本:卡粉 | 730.8 | 728.6 | 2.2 | 0.3% | | | 仓单成本:PB粉 | 766.7 | 764.5 | 2.2 | 0.3% | | | 仓单成本:巴混粉 | 777.1 | 775.0 | 2.2 | 0.3% | | | 仓单成本:金布巴粉 | 768.1 | 765.9 | 2.2 | 0.3% | | | 09合约基差:卡粉 | 49.2 | 39.1 | 10.1 | 25.8% | | | 09合约基差:PB粉 | 30.2 | 75.0 | -44.8 | -59.7% | 元/肥 | | 09合约基差:巴混粉 | 40.6 | 85.5 | -44.8 | -52.5% | | | 09合约基差:金布巴粉 | ...

| L2601收盘价 | 7254 | 7225 | 29 | 0.40% | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | L2509 收盘价 PP2601 收盘价 | 7278 7034 | 7245 7006 | 33 28 | 0.46% 0.40% | | | PP2509 收盘价 | 7078 | 7045 | 33 | 0.47% | | | L2509-2601 | 24 | 20 | 4 | 20.00% | | | PP2509-2601 | 44 | 39 | 5 | 12.82% | 元/吨 | | 华东PP拉丝现货 | 7100 | 7090 | 10 | 0.14% | | | 华北LDPE膜料现货 | 7170 | 7170 | 0 | 0.00% | | | 华北 塑料基差 | -110 | -80 | -30 | 37.50% | | | 华东 pp基差 | 30 | 50 | -20 | -40.00% | | | PE PP非标价格 | | | | | | | 品种 | 现值 | 前值 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | 华东LD ...

| SHENN | 贵金属日评20250710: 多数美联储官员担忧关税推升通胀,美国财政部发债节奏不及市场预期 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 交易日期 | 较昨日变化 | 较上周变化 | 2025-07-09 | 2025-07-03 | 2025-07-08 | 收盘价 | 776. 22 | 781.28 | 766. 82 | -9. 40 | -14.46 | | | | | 成交量 | 187574.00 | 189582. 00 | 123, 264. 00 | 121, 256. 00 | 310838.00 | 期货活跃合约 | 持包量 | 181258.00 | 179131.00 | 2, 127.00 | 5.797.00 | 175461.00 | | | | 库存(十克) | 21558. 00 | 21585. 00 | 18456. 00 | 27.00 | 3, 1 ...

Core Viewpoint - The gold ETF fund (159937) has shown a positive performance with a 0.70% increase as of July 10, 2025, and a 4.61% rise over the past three months, indicating strong investor interest and market dynamics favoring gold investments [1] Performance Summary - As of July 9, 2025, the gold ETF fund has achieved an 84.63% increase in net value over the past five years, ranking it among the top two in comparable funds [2] - The fund has recorded a maximum monthly return of 10.62% since its inception, with a longest consecutive monthly gain of six months and a maximum cumulative increase of 16.53% [2] - The fund's average monthly return during up months is 3.27%, with an annual profit percentage of 80.00% and a 100% probability of profit over a three-year holding period [2] Liquidity and Trading Activity - The gold ETF fund has seen a trading volume of 1.69 billion yuan with a turnover rate of 0.57% [1] - Over the past week, the average daily trading volume has been 7.86 billion yuan, placing it among the top two in comparable funds [1] - The fund has experienced continuous net inflows for four consecutive days, with a peak single-day net inflow of 87.70 million yuan, totaling 185 million yuan in net inflows [1][2] Risk and Return Metrics - The fund's Sharpe ratio over the past year is 2.49, indicating a favorable risk-adjusted return [3] - As of July 9, 2025, the fund has a relative drawdown of 0.40% compared to its benchmark for the year [4] Fee Structure and Tracking Accuracy - The management fee for the gold ETF fund is 0.50%, and the custody fee is 0.10% [5] - The tracking error over the past two months is 0.002%, demonstrating high tracking precision among comparable funds [5]

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 贵金属早报—— 2025年7月10日 大越期货投资咨询部 项唯一 从业资格证号： F3051846 投资咨询证号： Z0015764 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 5 今日关注 基本面数据 持仓数据 黄金 1、基本面：美联储会议纪要显示内部降息分歧大，金价先下后上；美国三大股指全 线收涨，欧洲三大股指收盘全线上涨；美债收益率集体下跌，10年期美债收益率跌 7.12个基点报4.330%；10年期美债收益率跌7.12个基点报4.330%，离岸人民币对美 元小幅贬值报7.1853；COMEX黄金期货跌0.95%报3311.00美元/盎司；中性 2、基差：黄金期货766.82，现货763，基差-3.82，现货贴水期货；偏空 3、库存：黄金期货仓单21585千克，增加27千克；偏空 4、盘面：20日均线向下，k线在20 ...

【现货方面】 7月9日，华东市场苯乙烯市场小幅走稳，港口到船增多，港口库存整体走高，承压基差走势，苯乙烯行 业利润尚可维持，苯乙烯行业开工高位运行，货源供应充裕，市场交投气氛低迷，下游负荷下行，采购 跟进谨慎。据PEC统计，至收盘现货7570-7690，7月下7670-7700（8合约+315-330），8月下7420-7510 （08合约+145~150），9月下7340-7430（09合约+150~155），单位：元/吨。 【供需方面】 苯乙烯供应：截至7月3日，苯乙烯整体产量36.66万吨（-0.02万吨）负荷80.03%（-0.05%）。 苯乙烯库存：截至2025年7月7日，江苏苯乙烯港口样本库存总量：11.15万吨，较上周期增加1.27万吨， 幅度+12.85%。商品量库存在3.9万吨，较上周期增加0.77万吨，幅度+24.60%。 苯乙烯下游：截至7月3日，下游EPS产能利用率55.88%（-3.84%），PS产能利用率52.4%（-5%）， ABS产能利用率65.04%（-0.96%）。 【行情展望】 苯乙烯行业利润较好情况下，前期检修装置逐步恢复以及新装置投产预期，苯乙烯供应存增加预期；而 在 ...

【现货方面】 7月9日，PTA期货小幅收涨，现货市场商谈一般，贸易商商为主，个别聚酯工厂有递盘，现货基差快速 走弱后企稳。本周及下周货在09+20~45有成交，个别略高在09+60有成交，价格商谈区间在4720~4770 附近。7月底在09+15~40有成交，夜盘在09+50于有成交。主流现货基差在09+36。 【成本方面】 7月9日，PTA现货加工费至159元/吨附近，TA2509盘面加工费314元/吨。 供应：上周PTA负荷升至78.2%（+0.5%）。 需求：上周聚酯综合负荷继续下滑至90.2%（-1.2%）附近。7月9日，涤丝价格重心局部下调，产销整体 偏弱。近期丝价持续回落，且目前处于淡季以及天气较热，销售会较为平淡，开工率下滑，坯布库存有 所上升。后期丝价较大概率继续下行为主，长丝工厂库存继续增加。近期需关注长丝企业减产和长丝价 格重心调整情况。 【行情展望】 7月PTA装置检修力度一般，且三房巷（600370）PTA装置有投产预期，下游聚酯工厂7月减产预期较强 以及终端需求持续偏弱，PTA供需预期转弱，近期PTA基差进一步走弱。绝对价格上，油价短期走势偏 强，以及原料PX供需预期偏紧，叠加PTA ...

Group 1 - The pork sector experienced significant gains, with Zhenghong Technology hitting the daily limit and Bangji Technology rising over 6% [1] - Other companies in the sector, such as Tianbang Food, Aonong Biological, and Zhengbang Technology, also saw increases in their stock prices [1] - Specific stock performance includes Zhenghong Technology up by 9.97% to 8.27, Bangji Technology up by 6.10% to 24.00, and Tianbang Food up by 4.35% to 3.11 [2] Group 2 - Muyuan Foods announced a substantial increase in its expected net profit for the first half of 2025, projecting a range of 10.2 billion to 10.7 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 1129.97% to 1190.26% [3][4] - The company reported a basic earnings per share of 1.90 to 2.00 yuan, significantly higher than the previous year's 0.15 yuan [4] - The increase in profit is attributed to a rise in the number of pigs sold and a decrease in breeding costs compared to the previous year [4] Group 3 - Muyuan Foods sold approximately 38.39 million pigs in the first half of 2025, an 18.54% increase from 32.39 million in the same period of 2024 [5] - The sales revenue for the first half of 2025 reached 70.87 billion yuan, up 26.5% from 56.02 billion yuan in the previous year [5] Group 4 - Huatai Securities noted that since late May, pork prices have been fluctuating downwards, with expectations of accelerated weight reduction and inventory release in the short term [6] - The report suggests that supply pressure may ease slightly by the end of Q3 and Q4, coinciding with the seasonal peak in pork consumption around September [6] - The second half of 2025 is expected to see better-than-expected pork prices and improved profitability for leading pig farming companies due to ongoing cost advantages [6]