专题报告 2025-07-09 "反内卷"及其对黑色板块影响 报告要点： 我们认为本轮"反内卷"并非是简单的再来一次"供给侧改革"，其与 2016 年附近的"供给侧 改革"在面临的主要矛盾上存在显著差异。前者主要解决的是无序价格战、不正当竞争、地方 保护主义等问题，为的是"高质量发展"；后者则主要聚焦上游原材料的"过剩产能"问题。 此外，二者在聚焦的产业上也明显不同。前者聚焦光伏、锂电池、新能源汽车、电商平台等新 兴行业；后者则着力于钢铁、煤炭等传统的上游行业。 对于黑色板块而言，我们认为当前阶段，"反内卷"情绪的影响大于实质。后续影响是否会出 现实质化，取决于需求端政策的发力情况。但在短期预期难以证伪的情况下，叠加 7 月份宏观 事件的频繁扰动，预计盘面价格波动将加剧，建议谨慎参与。 陈张滢 黑色研究员 从业资格号：F03098415 交易咨询号：Z0020771 0755-23375161 chenzy@wkqh.cn 黑色金属研究 | 黑色 "反内卷"及其对黑色板块影响 2025 年 7 月 1 日，中央财经委员会第六次会议在京召开，会议研究了纵深推进全国统一大市 场建设、海洋经济高质量发展等问题。 " ...

Core Insights - The "6.18" shopping festival marks a critical turning point for e-commerce platforms, shifting towards value-based competition and sustainable development [1] - The relationship between platforms, merchants, and consumers is crucial for the industry's future, with a focus on balancing interests and fostering a high-quality development path [1] Group 1: E-commerce Strategies - Pinduoduo has launched a "100 billion support" plan, committing over 100 billion RMB in resources over the next three years to enhance the e-commerce ecosystem [1] - The emphasis on supporting merchants reflects a strategic pivot from consumer subsidies to merchant empowerment, indicating a balanced relationship among platforms, merchants, and consumers [1] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The county-level market is gaining attention, with projections indicating that the GDP of this market will reach 109.9 trillion RMB this year, contributing over two-thirds of future consumption growth [2] - Data from the "6.18" event shows that county and rural markets have demonstrated strong consumption momentum, with order volume increasing by over 130% and user scale growing by over 140% year-on-year [2] Group 3: Logistics and Regional Development - Pinduoduo's "e-commerce westward" initiative aims to reduce logistics costs by covering the logistics transfer fees for merchants in remote areas like Tibet and Gansu [3] - To unlock the potential of the western market, a comprehensive logistics system and talent development are essential, which will drive sustainable high-quality growth in the e-commerce sector [3]

省政协副主席李兴旺、杨冠军、张晓光、孙科、范九伦和秘书长王刚出席会议。西安市政协主席王 吉德列席会议。（记者：刘曌琼） 徐新荣表示，推进教育科技人才体制机制一体改革，是建设教育强省、科技强省、人才强省的重要 路径，对于谱写中国式现代化建设的陕西新篇章具有重大意义。要坚持问题导向，强化政策设计，构 建"三位一体"协同发展机制；要推进产教融合，建立产业需求导向的学科专业调整机制，完善引才体 系，推动科技创新和产业创新加速融合；要发挥企业主体作用，完善企业出题、产学研协同解题机制， 突出重点产业链开展联合攻关；要深化"三项改革"，提高政府引导基金统筹效能，完善科技成果转 化"免申即享"机制，更好塑造高质量发展现代化建设新动能新优势。 徐新荣表示，下半年，常委会组成人员和机关各部门、各专门委员会要坚持改革创新、提质增效的 主基调，进一步提振精神状态，改进工作作风，以高质量履职促进政协工作高质量发展。要把学习贯彻 习近平新时代中国特色社会主义思想作为首要政治任务，善始善终抓好学习教育，在思想政治引领上提 质增效。要强化质量意识、责任意识，加快推进既定改革任务落实，在健全制度体系上提质增效。要聚 焦科学编制"十五五"规划 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of reform and innovation in promoting high-quality development in grassroots civil affairs, particularly in Shandong Province's Xincheng County, as a response to new demands from the public for precise assistance, quality elderly care, and efficient services [1][2]. Summary by Relevant Sections Reform Directions - The civil affairs bureau in Xincheng County is aligning its reform efforts with political, developmental, and practical dimensions to address the high-quality development of civil affairs [1]. - Political dimension focuses on transforming the advantages of party building into governance effectiveness to address public pain points [1]. - Development dimension identifies existing barriers in civil affairs as targets for reform and innovation, exemplified by the integration of multiple assistance programs into a simplified approval process [2]. - Practical dimension emphasizes the need for institutional innovation and modernization of governance capabilities, with specific reform tasks outlined for 2025 [2]. Key Initiatives - The civil affairs bureau has established a "red engine" mechanism led by party leadership to drive reform projects, including a model that integrates local culture with distinctive industries [3]. - A collaborative mechanism involving 14 departments has been created to enhance social assistance, ensuring effective resource allocation and information sharing [3]. - A focus on integrated services for marriage and childbirth registration has been implemented, benefiting numerous couples [4]. Mechanisms for Long-term Development - A results transformation mechanism has been established to enhance the effectiveness of social assistance programs, including insurance initiatives for vulnerable populations [5]. - An iterative upgrade mechanism is in place to continuously innovate child welfare programs, significantly improving the well-being of left-behind children [6]. - A long-term guarantee mechanism is being developed to cultivate professional talent within the civil affairs sector, enhancing the overall capability of the workforce [7].

Group 1 - The current consensus in the market is to combat "involutionary" competition through legal and market measures, stabilizing market prices and promoting the orderly exit of backward production capacity [1] - The complex causes of "involutionary" competition include local governments using industrial policies for inter-regional capacity investment competition, leading to overcapacity and price competition in related industries [1] - The shift to high-quality development emphasizes the importance of the real economy, with a focus on developing emerging industries and promoting the transformation and upgrading of manufacturing [1] Group 2 - Industrial policies and competition policies have coexisted in China, with industrial policies being necessary for promoting technological innovation and industrial upgrading, but they should be based on competitive policies [2] - The experience of Japan suggests that an overemphasis on industrial policies can lead to low growth, highlighting the need for a balance between industrial and competition policies during different growth phases [2] - During the high-quality development phase, the main drivers of economic growth are innovation and the market's ability to shift resources from low productivity to high productivity sectors [3] Group 3 - The need for a coordinated approach between industrial policies and macroeconomic policies is crucial to avoid asset bubbles and ensure effective resource allocation [3] - When industrial policies are misused by local governments for quantity-based expansion, it can lead to "involutionary" competition, reducing corporate profits and hindering innovation investment [3] - Establishing a unified national market is essential for ensuring fair competition and effective resource allocation [4] Group 4 - There is an urgent need to establish a system and institutional guarantees for achieving high-quality development, with central government-led industrial policies to promote innovation and industrial upgrading [4] - A well-coordinated relationship between industrial and competition policies is necessary to prevent local governments from undermining fair competition rules [4] - Improving the assessment systems for high-quality development and local government performance can help avoid the distortion of industrial policies into tools for regional competition [4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is the introduction of guidelines to enhance the quality of internal auditing in Rongcheng, focusing on leadership mechanisms, institutional personnel, responsibilities, and the application of audit results [1][2] Group 2 - The guidelines emphasize the establishment of a leadership mechanism for internal auditing, where the party organization and board of directors are responsible for formulating audit plans and reporting significant issues [1] - It is required that each unit set up a dedicated internal audit institution or designate an internal department to ensure independent auditing activities, prohibiting audit personnel from engaging in activities that may compromise their objectivity [1][2] Group 3 - The guidelines stress the importance of strengthening internal audit supervision, focusing on areas with concentrated power, funds, and resources, and enhancing oversight of budget execution, financial income and expenditure, economic decision-making, internal controls, and risk management [2] - A long-term mechanism for audit rectification is to be established, assigning responsibility for rectification to the audited units and their leaders, while ensuring that audit findings are utilized in performance evaluations and decision-making processes [2]

Group 1 - The core objective of the training session is to enhance the service capabilities of futures institutions in Beijing, thereby promoting high-quality development of the capital's futures market [1] - Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange (ZCE) aims to strengthen product, service, and regulatory supply to improve market operation quality, focusing on four key areas: optimizing product offerings, market cultivation, enhancing member service quality, and strengthening regulation [1][2] - The training emphasized the importance of team building in futures companies, highlighting that a strong team is essential for achieving sustainable growth and competitiveness [2] Group 2 - The trading consulting business is identified as a crucial direction for differentiation and specialization among futures companies, providing tailored services to meet enterprise needs [3] - Challenges faced by the trading consulting business include significant demand variability among enterprises, low efficiency in point-to-point services, and insufficient comprehensive talent [3] - Future developments in trading consulting should leverage technology and data, with a focus on building intelligent research platforms and digital risk management tools to enhance service efficiency and integration with the real economy [3]

近年来，滨州市的就业工作一直走在全省前列，每年城镇新增就业保持在3.7万人以上，今年2月份，滨州市作为三个市之一在全省促进 高质量充分就业工作会议上作交流发言，5月，无棣县获评全省首批高质量充分就业县建设单位。在市委、市政府的坚强领导下，全市各 级各部门凝心聚力、协调联动，打出一系列"稳就业"组合拳，保障全市就业大局稳中向好，推动"品质滨州"建设进中提质。 当前和今后一个时期，全市稳增长、稳就业的压力依然较大，面对需求多样化、产业智能化、人口老龄化、就业多元化等因素叠加，促 进高质量充分就业任务仍需持续努力。面对新形势、新任务、新要求，在深入开展调查研究、全面了解各县(市、区)需求基础上，制定 出台《关于促进高质量充分就业的若干措施》，立足滨州产业优势，释放滨州市人力资源富集效能，扎实推进高质量充分就业，持续促 进就业质的有效提升和量的合理增长，争当全省高质量充分就业的"排头兵"。 近日，滨州市政府新闻办组织召开市政府政策例行吹风会。就市政府印发的《关于促进高质量充分就业的若干措施》相关内容进行解 读。据了解，滨州市政府印发《关于促进高质量充分就业的若干措施》，系统部署滨州市高质量充分就业有关工作。发布会上， ...

Group 1 - Xi Jinping visited Yangquan, Shanxi, to inspect the local industry and commemorate the War of Resistance against Japan [1][7][17] - The visit included a tribute to the martyrs of the Eighth Route Army and a tour of the Hundred Regiments Offensive Memorial Museum [1][7] - The focus was on Shanxi's industrial transformation and high-quality development, highlighting the importance of local manufacturing companies like Yangquan Valve Co., Ltd. [1][20][23] Group 2 - The Hundred Regiments Offensive was a significant event in the Chinese resistance, showcasing the strength and determination of the Chinese Communist Party and the people [7][8][13] - Historical battles, such as the Pingxingguan battle, were emphasized as pivotal moments that boosted national morale during the war [10][12] - The current manufacturing landscape in Shanxi is seen as a continuation of the spirit of resistance, with companies like Taiyuan Iron and Steel Group innovating in sectors like ultra-thin stainless steel production [19][24]

今年，饶平荔 枝"很忙"。奔赴 新疆、福建、上 海、广州等地参 展，陆续举 办"2025年共享 美"荔"古树认养 活动""饶有佳荔 e路助农""潮说 百千万 活'荔'采 风行"等活 动……盛夏时 节，广东省晚熟 荔枝产区代表 ——潮州市饶平 县接过荔枝营 销"收官战" 。 压轴登场！潮州 饶平晚熟荔枝接 力"出圈"_南方 +_南方plus 据了解，饶平全 县荔枝种植面积 高达3.69万亩， 主要分布在联 饶、浮山一带， 荔枝品种有桂 味、糯米糍、黑 叶、妃子笑等， 其中尤以桂味荔 枝最为出色，以 其细核清甜、肉 质爽脆、带有桂 花香味而闻名遐 迩，成为了晚熟 荔枝中的佼佼 者。 近年来饶平荔枝 产业的高质量发 展，得益于久久 为功的市场体系 建设工作。以联 饶镇为例，过去 因果园分散、管 理不一，优质荔 枝难以卖出好 价。如今，在政 府主导下，联饶 镇已经连续举办 "饶有佳荔 e路助农"活动。 三年荔枝主题节 庆，从统一包装 到推出"饶小 荔"IP，再到"走 南闯北"拓市 场，"联饶桂 味"品牌建设成 市场端的火热， 也点燃了果农们 的管理热情。沃 效显著，每年电 商销售超百万 元，古树认养实 现百分百覆盖， ...