【现货方面】 7月9日，PTA期货小幅收涨，现货市场商谈一般，贸易商商为主，个别聚酯工厂有递盘，现货基差快速 走弱后企稳。本周及下周货在09+20~45有成交，个别略高在09+60有成交，价格商谈区间在4720~4770 附近。7月底在09+15~40有成交，夜盘在09+50于有成交。主流现货基差在09+36。 【成本方面】 7月9日，PTA现货加工费至159元/吨附近，TA2509盘面加工费314元/吨。 供应：上周PTA负荷升至78.2%（+0.5%）。 需求：上周聚酯综合负荷继续下滑至90.2%（-1.2%）附近。7月9日，涤丝价格重心局部下调，产销整体 偏弱。近期丝价持续回落，且目前处于淡季以及天气较热，销售会较为平淡，开工率下滑，坯布库存有 所上升。后期丝价较大概率继续下行为主，长丝工厂库存继续增加。近期需关注长丝企业减产和长丝价 格重心调整情况。 【行情展望】 7月PTA装置检修力度一般，且三房巷（600370）PTA装置有投产预期，下游聚酯工厂7月减产预期较强 以及终端需求持续偏弱，PTA供需预期转弱，近期PTA基差进一步走弱。绝对价格上，油价短期走势偏 强，以及原料PX供需预期偏紧，叠加PTA ...

能源化工日报 2025-07-10 我们认为当前地缘风险仍有不确定性，虽然 OPEC 略超预期增产，但我们认为当前基本面仍处 于紧平衡，整体原油处于强现实与弱预期的多空博弈当中，建议投资者把握风控，观望处理。 甲醇 2025/07/10 甲醇 原油 2025/07/10 原油早评 能源化工组 行情方面：WTI 主力原油期货收涨 0.11 美元，涨幅 0.16%，报 68.29 美元；布伦特主力原油期 货收涨 0.15 美元，涨幅 0.21%，报 70.18 美元；INE 主力原油期货收涨 9.00 元，涨幅 1.76%， 报 519.7 元。 数据方面：美国 EIA 周度数据出炉，美国原油商业库存累库 7.07 百万桶至 426.02 百万桶， 环比累库 1.69%；SPR 补库 0.24 百万桶至 403.00 百万桶，环比补库 0.06%；汽油库存去库 2.66 百万桶至 229.47 百万桶，环比去库 1.15%；柴油库存去库 0.83 百万桶至 102.80 百万桶，环 比去库 0.80%；燃料油库存去库 0.45 百万桶至 21.83 百万桶，环比去库 2.03%；航空煤油库 存去库 0.91 百万 ...

Core Insights - International crude oil prices experienced a rebound due to the summer driving season in Europe and the U.S., alongside a weakening dollar, with NYMEX WTI prices rising above $68 per barrel by July 8 [1] - Despite seasonal demand, significant downward pressure on prices is expected in Q3 due to OPEC+'s increasing production plans and the ongoing impact of U.S. tariff policies on global economic growth [1] OPEC+ Production Increase - OPEC+ is significantly increasing production to regain market share, with an agreement reached on July 5 to raise output by 548,000 barrels per day in August, exceeding market expectations [2] - A potential meeting on August 3 may approve an additional increase of approximately 550,000 barrels per day for September, bringing total output from key OPEC+ members back to 2.17 million barrels per day [2] - In May, OPEC's production rose to 27.022 million barrels per day, an increase of 184,000 barrels per day from April, with Saudi Arabia and Libya contributing the most to this increase [2] U.S. Production Trends - U.S. crude oil production is projected to grow by 270,000 barrels per day in 2024, averaging 13.2 million barrels per day, a 2.08% increase from 2023 [3] - As of June 27, U.S. production had decreased to 13.433 million barrels per day, down from a record high of 13.631 million barrels per day in December [3] - High-cost shale oil producers are beginning to cut production due to falling prices, with the average breakeven prices in key regions being $62 and $64 per barrel [3] Geopolitical Impact - Recent geopolitical tensions, such as the conflict between Israel and Iran, initially caused spikes in oil prices, but the impact has been short-lived as supply routes have normalized [4] - Saudi Arabia's crude oil exports increased by 450,000 barrels per day in June, reaching the highest level in over a year [4] - Structural changes in the energy market, including diversified supply sources and improved strategic reserves, are reducing the traditional dominance of oil-producing countries [4] Demand Concerns - Trade barriers and tariffs are expected to weaken global economic growth, which may suppress oil demand [5] - Forecasts for global oil demand in 2025 have been adjusted by major agencies, with IEA, EIA, and OPEC predicting demand at 103.7627 million, 103.5280 million, and 105.1349 million barrels per day, respectively [6] - Seasonal gasoline consumption in the U.S. has seen a mild recovery, but overall demand during the summer driving season is expected to be lower than previous years [6] Domestic Market Dynamics - In May, China's crude oil imports showed negative growth year-on-year, with a 3% decline month-on-month [7] - Domestic refining profits have increased, leading to a rise in refinery operating rates, while smaller refineries are struggling with low profits [7] - The global oil market is likely to face oversupply, driven by OPEC+'s production increases and the impact of U.S. energy policies [7]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货铁矿石早报（2025 年 7 月 10 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 铁矿 2509 | 震荡 偏强 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 关注 MA5 一线支撑 | 现实矛盾不大，矿价震荡走高 | 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 行情驱动逻辑 铁矿石基本面表现平稳，钢厂生产趋弱，矿石终端消耗有所减量，但仍处年内高位，且钢厂盈利 状况较好，继续给予矿价强支撑。与此同时，港口到货环比增加，但财年末冲量结束后矿商发运延续 减量，海外矿石供应收缩，相应的内矿生产弱稳，供应端相对利好，关注矿商发运变化情况。目前来 看， ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 （2）7月9日泰国合艾原料市场报价：白片无报价，烟片64.79，-0.41； 胶水54.3，-0.2；杯胶47.3，-0.2。 （3）7月8日，乘联分会发布的最新数据显示，今年6月，全国乘用车市场 零售208.4万辆，同比增长18.1%，环比增长7.6%。今年上半年，乘用车市 场累计零售1,090.1万辆，同比增长10.8%。乘联分会秘书长指出，前几年 国内车市零售呈现"前低后高"的走势，今年6月零售较2022年6月194万 的最高水平增长7%。这意味着，自今年5月后，乘用车市场再现"超强增 长"。 中信期货研究|农业策略⽇报 2025-7-10 棕油继续偏强运行，关注MPOB报告 油脂：昨日棕油继续偏强运行，关注MPOB报告 蛋⽩粕：多空交织，盘面延续区间运行 ⽟⽶/淀粉：现货局部走弱，期价低位震荡 ⽣猪：情绪冷却，猪价小幅回调 橡㬵：区间震荡走势延续 合成橡㬵：暂时企稳运行 纸浆：期货转暖未拉动现货氛围 棉花：棉价震荡运行 ⽩糖：糖价小幅上涨 原⽊：短期交割品流通冲击，现货偏弱运行 【异动品种】 天然橡㬵观点：区间震荡⾛势延续 信息： （1）青岛保税区人民币 ...

A供应持续增长 海外新增产能逐步释放 近几年，随着全球铁矿石需求持续增长和矿端企业现金流持续改善，以中国宝武和澳洲力拓为代表的钢 铁行业龙头企业纷纷加大矿山投资力度，提升铁矿石资源保障能力。从产能分布区域来看，新增矿山主 要集中在几内亚、南非、澳大利亚、巴西等矿产资源丰富的国家。 自2022年以来，我国在矿产资源开发方面推出了"基石计划"，以提升重要矿产资源保障能力。不过，近 两年在矿山安全生产要求提高、环保政策趋严等因素的影响下，国内矿山产能释放节奏明显放缓。根据 国家统计局公布的数据，今年1—5月国内铁矿石原矿产量为4.14亿吨，同比下降4303万吨，降幅为 9.4%。同期，根据上海钢联的调研统计数据，全国433家矿山铁精粉产量为1.14亿吨，同比下降1064万 吨，降幅为8.5%。由此可见，国产矿供给呈现收缩态势，明显不及市场预期。 整体而言，今年上半年在铁矿石进口量显著下降且国产矿供给下降的情况下，国内铁矿石供给总体呈现 显著收缩的状态。展望下半年，随着海外矿山发运逐步回归常态以及国内港口库存压力缓解，铁矿石进 目前，由中国宝武和澳洲力拓等企业共同投资开发的几内亚西芒杜项目，被认为是未来5到10年全球 ...

展望下一阶段，受访专家认为，CPI有望改善，呈现低位温和回升态势。一系列增量政策与存量政策协 同显效，特别是综合整治"内卷式"竞争政策逐步落地，将推动供需结构持续改善，会对相关行业价格起 到支撑作用；服务消费潜力持续显现，将有助于餐饮住宿、家政服务、养老托育、文化旅游、健康服务 等领域价格上涨。（上证报） ...

Core Viewpoint - OPEC's recent unexpected production increase plan is deemed necessary for the global market, despite Wall Street's pessimism about oil prices in the second half of the year [1] Group 1: Market Supply and Demand - Key oil-producing countries, including Saudi Arabia, UAE, and Kuwait, emphasize the need for the recent production increase, indicating that inventory levels have not significantly accumulated despite months of increased output [1] - Signs of supply tightness are evident, with crude oil inventories at the Cushing storage hub in Oklahoma reaching their lowest levels for the same period since 2014, and diesel inventories sharply declining [3] - OPEC+ unexpectedly announced an additional production of 411,000 barrels per day in April, which was later expanded to 548,000 barrels per day [4] Group 2: Demand Outlook - The CEO of Saudi Aramco, Amin Nasser, expresses optimism about healthy global oil demand growth despite trade challenges and tariff barriers impacting the global economy [4] - Kuwait's oil company CEO notes that the current market conditions are favorable, creating opportunities for market share acquisition due to potential supply tightness [4] Group 3: Future Concerns - TotalEnergies' CEO points out that the market's muted response to geopolitical tensions, such as the Israel-Iran conflict, suggests ample supply [4] - Analysts predict that the market may experience a reversal in supply-demand dynamics later this year as refinery processing rates decline and new production enters the market [5] Group 4: OPEC's Media Controversy - OPEC has faced criticism for restricting access to major media outlets, including Bloomberg, The New York Times, The Financial Times, and The Wall Street Journal, during its meetings, raising concerns about transparency [5] - The Saudi Energy Minister has previously criticized media coverage of OPEC, and the recent restrictions have limited journalists' opportunities to question ministers regarding production decisions [5]

丨证券研究报告丨 行业研究丨专题报告丨金属、非金属与采矿 [Table_Title] 工业金属中，为何铜价长期趋势更好？ 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 过往几年，铜价持续走强领涨工业金属，伦铜 2024 年 5 月上破 11000 美元/吨创 2006 年以来 新高。更长周期维度里，铜价表现亦是一马当先，2000 年至 2025 年 7 月 3 日工业金属铜铝铅 锌价格分别累计上涨 431%、58%、319%、124%。为何工业金属当中铜价长期趋势更好？背 后的产业逻辑如何？本文通过多金属对比，探究影响长周期价格走势的底层逻辑。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 王鹤涛 肖勇 许红远 SAC：S0490512070002 SAC：S0490516080003 SAC：S0490520080021 SFC：BQT626 SFC：BUT918 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 金属、非金属与采矿 cjzqdt11111 [Table_Title2] 工业金属中，为何铜价长期趋势更好？ [Table_Summary2] 引言：铜价 ...

Group 1 - The company expects a net loss of between 80 million to 120 million RMB for the current period, with a significant decrease in net profit attributable to shareholders by 120.64% to 130.96% compared to the same period last year [1] - The company's operating revenue is projected to be between 3.8 billion to 4.2 billion RMB, showing a year-on-year growth of 74.63% to 93.01% [1] - Basic earnings per share are expected to be a loss of 0.49 to 0.74 RMB per share, compared to a profit of 2.63 RMB per share in the same period last year [1] Group 2 - The improvement in supply-demand structure has driven overall price recovery, and the company has actively expanded its enterprise-level storage and embedded storage businesses, leading to a significant increase in operational scale [2] - The company anticipates a substantial increase in R&D expenses, with approximately 130 million RMB for the first half of 2025, up from 86.64 million RMB in the same period last year, marking a 50% increase [2] - The company has successfully upgraded its service model from a single product supply to an integrated service of "hardware + technology + supply chain," achieving rapid breakthroughs in enterprise-level and embedded storage sectors [2]