Core Points - The World Economic Forum's 16th Annual Meeting of New Champions will be held in Tianjin from June 24 to 26, focusing on the theme of "Entrepreneurial Spirit in the New Era" [1][2] - The event will feature nearly 200 sub-forums and activities, including discussions on the Belt and Road Initiative and new productivity [2] - Approximately 1,800 guests from around 90 countries have registered, marking the highest attendance in recent years, reflecting the growing influence of the forum and the attractiveness of China's large market [2][3] Group 1 - The meeting aims to facilitate communication among global leaders from politics, business, academia, and media, addressing global economic development issues [1][2] - The event is significant as it coincides with the conclusion of China's 14th Five-Year Plan and the planning of the 15th Five-Year Plan [1] - The implementation of the Private Economy Promotion Law on May 20 has encouraged the participation of Chinese private enterprises, showcasing their resilience and high-quality development [2] Group 2 - Over 144 high-level political leaders from around 30 countries and regions will attend, including 40 cabinet ministers [3] - The co-chairs of the meeting include prominent figures from both the public and private sectors, such as Liu Qiangdong from JD.com and Li Dongsheng from TCL [3]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the dilemma faced by an individual regarding whether to sell gold holdings for immediate profit or to hold on for potential future gains, highlighting the volatility of gold prices and the influence of global economic factors on investment decisions [3][5][6]. Group 1: Gold Price Trends - Over the past decade, gold prices have experienced significant fluctuations, with a notable increase from around 260 yuan per gram to peaks of over 830 yuan, followed by a decline to approximately 732 yuan [3][5]. - The volatility of gold prices has been around 20% over the past five years, indicating substantial risk and potential profit in gold investments [5]. Group 2: Economic Influences - Global economic conditions, including U.S. Federal Reserve monetary policy, inflation expectations, and trade dynamics, heavily impact gold prices [5]. - Increased inflation pressures have made gold an attractive safe-haven asset for investors, contributing to recent price increases [5]. Group 3: Investment Dilemma - The individual is torn between selling gold for a guaranteed profit of over 150,000 yuan or holding out for potential further appreciation, reflecting a common struggle among investors [6][11]. - The advice from family members represents contrasting investment philosophies: one advocating for immediate cashing out and the other suggesting patience for long-term gains [6][8]. Group 4: Long-term vs Short-term Investment - The article raises questions about whether gold should be viewed as a long-term asset or a short-term trading tool, emphasizing the need for investors to understand their risk tolerance [8]. - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) suggests that future gold market performance will be influenced by ongoing political and economic uncertainties, complicating investment decisions [8].

2025.06. 17 该白宫官员解释说，特朗普已就以伊冲突公开发表看法，他认为自己目前没有理由签署该声明。 特 朗普将继续致力于确保伊朗无法获得核武器 。 微信编辑 | 七三 据报道，特朗普于当地时间15日抵达加拿大参加七国集团峰会。特朗普原本计划在加拿大待到17日 晚些时候。但莱维特16日表示，特朗普将提前离开。 据央视新闻，美国媒体报道，七国集团峰会16日开幕当天分歧浮现， 美国总统特朗普表示无意签署 七国集团拟就呼吁以色列和伊朗冲突降级发表的联合声明 。 欧盟委员会主席冯德莱恩和欧洲理事会主席科斯塔15日晚间举行新闻发布会时强调欧洲就以伊冲突 的立场，即以色列有权自卫、伊朗不能获得核武器。法德英三国希望七国集团领导人就当前中东局势 达成共识并写入联合声明。 本文字数：607，阅读时长大约1分钟 七国集团峰会16日在距加拿大卡尔加里市约100公里的卡纳纳斯基斯村开幕。本次峰会为期两天。除 举行多场双边会晤外，七国集团领导人16日举行全体会议，讨论全球经济前景，并于17日与受邀国 家和国际组织领导人讨论能源安全。 据中国新闻社综合美媒报道，白宫新闻秘书莱维特16日表示，鉴于中东局势， 美国总统特朗普将缩 ...

Global Economic Outlook - The global economy in the second half of 2025 is characterized by "weak reality, strong shocks, and high volatility," with significant uncertainty and concerns about recession [1][8] - The U.S. economy shows signs of weakening core growth, with consumer spending support for GDP diminishing and inflation pressures re-emerging, potentially pushing CPI back to 3% by mid-year [2][26][32] - European economic improvement is limited, with weak domestic demand despite temporary boosts from fiscal deficits, and the European Central Bank expected to maintain a loose monetary policy with 1-2 rate cuts [2][9] - Japan's economy is under pressure from high inflation, with wage growth offset by rising prices, and a potential interest rate hike expected by the end of 2025 [2][9] Major Economies - The U.S. faces multiple pressures including consumption, inflation, and employment challenges, with rising fiscal deficit risks and delayed interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve [3][12] - U.S.-China trade relations are undergoing adjustments, with some tariffs being suspended, but structural issues remain unresolved, leading to ongoing tensions in non-tariff areas [3][4] - The overall economic landscape is marked by a fragile balance, with the potential for a weak recovery amid high volatility [8] Asset Markets - Global asset markets are expected to experience high volatility in the second half of 2025, with the S&P 500 potentially testing previous highs around 6150 points, but facing risks from inflation and trade negotiations [4][10] - U.S. Treasury yields are projected to remain elevated, fluctuating between 4.2% and 4.7%, with 4.5% acting as a critical support and resistance level [4][10] - The Japanese market is anticipated to fluctuate between 36,000 and 40,000 points, influenced by currency volatility and persistent inflation [4][10] - Precious metals, particularly gold, are expected to continue their upward trend, presenting ongoing investment opportunities [4][10] Market Logic - The core market logic revolves around the interplay between policy expectations and economic realities, with high uncertainty stemming from U.S. fiscal and trade policies [5][8] - The weakening dollar may lead to capital inflows into emerging markets, enhancing the attractiveness of emerging market equities [5][8] - Investors are advised to navigate the complexities of the economic landscape by understanding policy directions and identifying structural opportunities amid volatility [5][8]

| 品种 核心观点 | 主要逻辑及价格区间 | | --- | --- | | | 以色列空袭伊朗事件升级发酵，主推避险情况，尽管美国数据积极，关税谈判 | | 黄金 强势走高 | 进入关键时期，短期不确定性仍然较多，关注中东问题的严峻程度。长期全球 | | | 尚在秩序重塑途中，黄金战略配置价值高。【790-815】 | | | 白银跟随黄金避险情绪，市场表现上涨，金银比价方面，目前回归正常区间， | | 白银 高位震荡 | 目前白银基本面变化不大，短期白银将交易黄金和基本金属跟随特性，关注 | | | 8700，如果撑不住或再次回到前期区间。【8700-9000】 | | | 中美会谈结束并没有实质性大利好，国内宏观窗口期，中东地缘风险激增，市场对 | | 铜 区间震荡 | 全球经济下行担忧增加，市场避险情绪回升，铜短期反弹，但整体或仍旧承压，重 | | | 新回到震荡区间。中长期依旧看好铜。沪铜关注区间【77800，78800】 | | | 海外地缘风险激增，美联储议息会议临近，市场避险情绪上升，锌止跌反弹， | | 锌 反弹 | 成本支撑下深跌空间或有限，但整体依旧偏弱，短期建议暂时观望，长期看， | ...

贸易冲击与经济格局重塑下的全球投资 中金认为下半年，美国和非美地区的经济动能将走向收敛，主要受美国经济放缓的推动。在美国私人部门的资产负债表仍有韧性的背景下，中金认为美国 陷入衰退的风险不大，但增长边际放缓，通胀因为关税有一定韧性（见中金宏观《美国宏观经济2025下半年展望：美国式再平衡》）。非美地区相对于美 国，一是受益于更宽松的货币政策环境（非美地区的政策利率上半年下降更多），同时还有基数效应的影响，根据IMF的测算，非美地区GDP产出缺口仍 未转正。但是需要注意的是，下半年非美地区经济动能的修复仍面临几个方面的制约。一方面，关税和地缘变化带来的不确定性仍高；另一方面，前期因 为关税而使得部分地区的出口和增长前置。 地区层面，下半年中金看好非美地区的机会，对欧洲市场保持相对乐观，边际提升新兴市场的权重。一方面，周期上，美国和非美地区的经济动能有望进 一步收敛；另一方面，结构上，美国政策的不断反复使得政策不确定性维持在高位，投资者要求更高的风险补偿可能只是时间问题（类似于政策不确定性 较高的新兴市场）。目前美国和其余市场的估值差仍在高位。 但美国和非美地区资产表现的分化或小于上半年，建议平衡配置。非美地区相 ...

研究员： 于军礼 从业资格： F0247894 交易咨询资格：Z0000112 联系方式：yujunli@greendh.com | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 1、当地时间 | 6 | 月 | 13 | 日凌晨，以色列国防部表示，以色列对伊朗发动打击。以色列 | 总理表示，以军对伊朗核设施的军事行动将持续数日，直至消除威胁。 | | | | | | | | | | | 2、路透社报道，伊朗议会安全委员会成员伊斯梅尔·科萨里（Esmail Kosari）表 | 示，伊朗正在认真考虑是否封锁霍尔木兹海峡。 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 3、摩根大通分析称，以色列攻击伊朗核设施使"基本情景"假设化为泡影。一旦 | 中东爆发更大规模的冲突，导致霍尔木兹海峡被封锁，在这种最 ...

分析师：中东紧张局势升级对全球经济影响有限 金十数据6月16日讯，Evans and Partners首席投资官Tim Rocks表示，中东局势升级不太可能对全球经济 产生持久影响。他指出，虽然油价可能出现短期飙升，但伊朗仅占全球石油产量的3%，且欧佩克目前 拥有充足的闲置产能，足以应对伊朗供应中断的风险。Rocks称，他将在市场波动中寻找增持仓位的机 会。不过，他警告称，主要风险在于霍尔木兹海峡可能遭遇封锁或袭击。该海峡由伊朗控制，全球约 20%的原油需经此运输，一旦受阻，可能对能源市场造成重大冲击。 ...

【环球时报报道 记者 肖震冬】第51届七国集团（G7）峰会于当地时间15日至17日在加拿大艾伯塔省卡 纳纳斯基斯举行。在美国总统特朗普再度返回G7峰会时，"他已经带领全球经济经历了一场过山车式的 起伏"，彭博社13日报道称，而这一次，美国关税政策在国内外遭遇了日益增长的反对，"再次深刻地提 醒人们贸易战的高昂代价"。 同时，美国政府的关税政策也在挑战其作为多数国家主要经济伙伴的角色，及对全球经济议程的影响 力。彭博社的研究模型显示，美国关税政策可能使其在全球贸易中的份额从22%降至16%。这在亚洲市 场尤为明显，当前中国已是该地区多数国家最大贸易伙伴。原TPP成员国（亚太地区）对华贸易占比 23%，对美贸易仅占13%，关税政策可能将美国份额压至11%。 特朗普退出TPP的后果在8年后的今天仍然体现在盟友态度的转变上。 特朗普的关税也打击了许多美国 盟友的经济。随着出口下滑，加拿大等贸易伙伴正面临陷入衰退的可能性。日本和德国标志性的汽车行 业也面临着生存威胁。目前有三个G7成员（加拿大、日本和英国）已加入TPP的"继承者"《全面与进步 跨太平洋伙伴关系协定》（CPTPP）。报道援引日本内阁府前高级经济学家川崎健 ...

作者 | 独行侠 数据支持 | 勾股大数 据（www.gogudata.com） 随着以伊地缘冲突的爆发，国际油价也跟着发生了巨大波动。 6月13日，国际油价一度大涨14%，最终收涨近8%。这已经在前两日大涨近6%基础上进行的，彼时美国宣布从中东撤回人员，点燃了市场对 中东地缘政治冲突的担忧。 受油价影响，周五港 A油气板块大幅上涨，其中，山东墨龙飙升75%，中石化油服大涨25%。"三桶油"表现不俗，中国海油上涨2%，较4月 初累升24%。 目前，涨价题材颇受资本市场追捧。接下来，油气板块是否还有更好表现？ 01 在 6月15日美伊正准备新一轮谈判之前，以色列以意想不到的方式对伊朗实施了军事打击，包括袭击伊朗重要核设施、精准斩首伊朗革命卫队 高管及核技术专家。 打击之后，全球金融市场一直在等伊朗方面的报复回应。 据多家媒体报道，伊朗在 6月13日发射了100多架无人机袭击以色列。之后，伊朗又发射了 数百枚弹道导弹 ， 目标包括特拉维夫的军事中 心、空军基地等数十个目标 。 截止目前，伊朗方面实质性报复力度被普遍认为是软弱无力的。接下来，以色列是否继续加大力度袭击伊朗，以及伊朗方面是否更大规模报复 以色列，都不 ...