美东时间6月18日，美联储最新的联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）货币政策会议纪要显示，美联储决定 将联邦基金利率目标区间维持在4.25%至4.5%之间不变。这是美联储货币政策会议连续第四次决定维持 利率不变。美联储的声明称，尽管净出口波动影响了数据，但是最近的指标表明美国经济活动继续稳步 扩张。失业率稳定在低位，劳动力市场状况保持稳健，通胀率仍然略高。美联储寻求在较长时期内实现 充分就业和2%通胀目标。经济前景不确定性有所减弱，但仍然较高。美联储密切关注其双重使命面临 的风险。 本次声明重申，美联储将继续减少其持有的美国国债、机构债和机构抵押贷款支持证券（MBS）。美 联储政策制定者预计，随着特朗普关税影响到美国消费者，商品价格的通胀将在夏季上升。美联储主席 鲍威尔表示，美联储将继续根据最新数据、经济前景变化和风险平衡来决定货币政策的适当立场。鲍威 尔认为，贸易、移民、财政和监管政策仍在不断变化，这些政策对经济的影响仍不确定。"目前，我们 处于有利地位，可以先了解经济可能的走向，然后再考虑调整政策。"鲍威尔表示，现在还有时间等待 更多明朗的消息。 观察人士认为，美联储今年年初选择观望是出于对美国新一届政府关税政 ...

Group 1 - The number of individuals receiving unemployment insurance in Canada increased by 3.4% in April [1]

固定收益 | 固定收益点评 6 月 FOMC：降息门槛仍高 证券研究报告 6 月美联储议息会议点评 6 月 FOMC：通胀风险，就业稳健，保持观望 6 月美联储议息会议维持利率不变，符合市场预期。总体来看，特朗普政 府政策不确定性之下，美联储将保持谨慎，耐心等待更明确的降息信号。 会议声明：未有重大变化，不确定性有所下降。本次会议声明将"经济前 景的不确定性进一步增加"改成"经济前景的不确定性有所下降，但仍较 高"；删除了"高失业和高通胀的风险都有所上升"的表述。 经济预测：更高通胀、更低增长。本次经济预测（SEP）显示，相较于 3 月的预测美联储进一步靠近"滞胀"：GDP 下调、失业率上调、通胀上调。 点阵图：比 3 月更鹰，下调 2026 年降息预期。本次委员们维持 2025 年底 前降息 50bp 的预测中值不变，但增加了 3 个人、预计今年不降息；下调 2026 年降息预计为 25bp（3 月预测为降息 50bp）。 美联储主席鲍威尔的表态相对偏鹰。关于就业，鲍威尔指出就业增长确实 有所下降，但失业率仍在较低水平，劳动力供需都在同步下降。关于通胀， 鲍威尔表示"我们预计未来几个月将出现显著的通胀"，并 ...

瑞士央行：失业率可能继续小幅上升。 ...

Core Insights - The Swiss National Bank is prepared to intervene in the foreign exchange market if necessary [1] - GDP growth is projected to be between 1% and 1.5% for both 2025 and 2026 [1] - The unemployment rate may continue to rise slightly [1]

美联储主席鲍威尔顶住特朗普施压，维持基准利率在4.25%-4.50%不变。之后鲍威尔发言让人浮想联 翩，热议今年降息的可能性。 6月议息会议后维持利率不变——这已是其自去年12月以来连续第四次按兵不动，具体如下表所示。 联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）在声明中指出：尽管净出口的波动对数据产生了影响，但近期指标显 示，经济活动继续以稳健的步伐扩张，失业率维持在较低水平，劳动力市场状况依然稳固，通胀仍处于 略高水平。 值得留意的是，这次的声明措辞上有所改变：5月时的版本指经济前景的不确定性"进一步增加"，但6月 声明的措辞已变更为"对经济前景的不确定性已有所减弱，但仍处于较高水平"。 为实现其最大就业和将核心通胀控制在2%的目标，委员会决定将联邦基金利率的目标区间维持在4.25% 至4.50%水平。在考虑对联邦基金利率目标区间进行额外调整的幅度和时机时，其将仔细评估新发布的 数据、不断演变的前景以及风险平衡，并会继续减持美国国债、机构债券和机构抵押贷款支持证券。 在评估货币政策的适当立场时，FOMC将继续监测新信息对经济前景的影响。若出现可能阻碍其实现目 标的风险，美联储将准备酌情调整货币政策立场。FOMC的评估将 ...

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve has maintained the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% to 4.50% for the fourth consecutive time since November of the previous year, indicating a cautious approach to monetary policy [1] - The Fed's statement highlights that economic activity is expanding steadily, with low unemployment and a strong labor market, although inflation remains slightly above the 2% target [1] - The Fed is committed to achieving maximum employment and the 2% inflation target, while closely monitoring data and economic outlook for future policy adjustments [1] Group 2 - The Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) shows a significant downward adjustment in GDP growth expectations for the next three years, with median growth rates for 2025, 2026, and 2027 revised to 1.4%, 1.6%, and 1.8%, respectively, down from 1.7%, 1.8%, and 1.8% [3] - Unemployment rate expectations have been raised, with median rates for 2025, 2026, and 2027 now at 4.5%, 4.5%, and 4.4%, compared to previous expectations of 4.4%, 4.3%, and 4.3% [3] - Inflation expectations have also been increased, with median PCE and core PCE inflation rates for 2025 set at 3.0% and 3.1%, and for 2026 and 2027 at 2.4% and 2.1%, respectively, all above the Fed's 2% inflation target [3] Group 3 - The dot plot indicates that the median rate expectation for the end of 2024 is between 3.75% and 4.00%, suggesting a potential cumulative rate cut of 50 basis points from the current level, consistent with the March meeting results [3] - For the end of 2026, the median rate expectation is between 3.50% and 3.75%, which is higher than the previous range of 3.25% to 3.50%, indicating a narrowing of the expected rate cut from 50 basis points to 25 basis points [3]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% to 4.50%, marking the fourth consecutive decision to keep rates unchanged, aligning with market expectations [2] - Recent indicators show steady expansion in U.S. economic activity, low unemployment rates, and a stable labor market, although inflation remains "slightly high" [2] - The Fed's economic forecast was adjusted, lowering the GDP growth expectation for this year by 0.3 percentage points to 1.4%, while raising the core PCE price index expectation to 3.1% and the unemployment rate expectation to 4.5% [2] Group 2 - The dot plot indicates expectations for two rate cuts in 2025, with varying opinions among officials regarding the timing and number of cuts [3] - Fed Chair Jerome Powell emphasized the current policy stance is appropriate and that the Fed will wait to assess economic developments before considering policy adjustments [3] - Powell noted that tariffs will likely raise prices and impact economic activity, with the extent of the impact depending on the scope and duration of the tariffs [3] Group 3 - Powell reiterated that the Fed's focus is on ensuring a robust U.S. economy with a strong labor market and stable prices, dismissing personal attacks from President Trump [4] - Powell's term will end in May 2026, and there is speculation about potential candidates for the next Fed Chair, including former Fed Governor Kevin Walsh and Treasury Secretary Scott Benset [4]

不过美联储仍然认为未来美国经济仍面临较高的不确定性，关税增加可能会对经济活动产生压力，未来 几个月通胀将显著上升。美联储下调了未来对美国经济增长的预期，上调了未来通胀、失业率的预期。 本次会议声明中，在对劳动力市场的判断上，委员会维持了稳定的判断，但删除了"失业率稳定在低水 平"的措辞，在对通胀的判断上，维持了"仍然偏高"的表述。在经济指标预测中，美联储将2025年的失 业率预期上调至4.5%，将核心PCE物价指数的通胀预期上调至3%。在经济指标预测中，对2025年美国 实际GDP增速的预期中值从1.7%再下调至1.4%，并同步将2026年下调至1.6%。 美联储主席鲍威尔在新闻发布会中表示，关税政策的影响传导至终端消费需要时间，企业调查显示多数 公司计划将关税成本部分或全部转嫁消费者。关税影响的规模、持续时间高度不确定，因此维持现有的 政策立场是合适的，以便根据后续数据灵活调整。 当地时间6月18日，美国联邦储备委员会宣布将联邦基金利率目标区间维持在4.25%至4.50%之间，这是 美联储货币政策会议连续第四次决定维持利率不变。 本次美联储公布的点阵图显示，2025年降息次数仍为两次，但从分布上看，内部仍有 ...

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve maintained its policy interest rate, but revised down its economic growth forecast for the year while raising inflation expectations [1][2] - The latest dot plot indicates a potential for two rate cuts this year, although there is an increase in the number of members predicting no cuts [1][2] - The Fed's updated economic projections show a GDP growth rate of 1.4% for this year and an unemployment rate of 4.5% for 2025 and 2026 [1][2] Group 2 - Morgan Asset Management noted that the Fed's decision to keep rates unchanged aligns with market expectations, reflecting a shift in language regarding economic uncertainty [2] - The Fed's economic outlook suggests that tariff-related policies may lead to rising inflation and economic downturn [2] - Investors are advised to build resilient portfolios in response to the current uncertain environment, focusing on diversification and balanced investment strategies [3]