24.06.28 《国债期货跨期价差系列专题一： 理论定价与影响因子》 研究通讯 2025 年 6 月 18 日星期三 当前国债期货跨期价差定价特征与展望 摘要： 本轮 2506-2509 合约跨期价差总体处于负值运行，从 5 月走势来看， 不同品种之间有所分化：TL 和 T 合约走势波动下行，且 TL 合约跨期价 差（连续）出现了上市以来的新低；TF 与 TS 合约则呈现先下行后上行 再下行的复杂走势。本文从国债期货定价的角度拆解本轮跨期价差运行 的内在逻辑，分析当前国债期货跨期价差定价的特点，并展望新一轮跨期 价差（2509-2512）的变化。 研究通讯 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】1292 号 联系信息 熊睿健 投资咨询资格：Z0019608 电话：020-88818020 邮箱：xiongruijian@gf.com.cn 相关报告 23.07.11 《国债期货交割历史回顾之：交割 券的选择》 24.08.28 《国债期货跨期价差系列专题二： 多因子量化套利策略》 24.12.20 《国债期货跨期价差系列专题三： 基于跨期价差预测信号的移仓优化策略》 本报告中所有观点仅供参考，请务必阅读正 ...

Core Viewpoint - New Oxygen (SY.O), known as the "first stock in internet medical beauty," is transitioning to offline institutions, having opened 23 self-operated medical beauty institutions across 9 cities in China within two years since May 2023 [1] Group 1: Business Expansion - In Q1 2025, New Oxygen's medical beauty chain business revenue reached 99 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of over 500% [1] - Management expects the revenue for this business in Q2 to be between 120 million and 140 million yuan [1] Group 2: Conflict with Suppliers - Tensions are rising between New Oxygen and upstream medical beauty material companies, particularly regarding the compliance issues of the "Aivilan" product used in New Oxygen's self-operated clinics [2] - The supplier, Changchun Shengboma Biological Materials Co., claims it does not guarantee the authenticity of the products sold by New Oxygen and has not trained their medical staff on the product [2][3] Group 3: Pricing Strategy - New Oxygen's pricing strategy involves selling a combination product called "Miracle Youth," which includes Aivilan and is priced at 5,999 yuan, significantly lower than the standard price of around 18,000 yuan for Aivilan alone [6][7] - This pricing strategy has raised concerns about whether the use of Aivilan for purposes beyond its approved indications constitutes off-label use [8] Group 4: Industry Dynamics - The conflict reflects broader issues in the medical beauty industry, where upstream manufacturers are losing pricing power amid fierce competition and price wars [10][11] - New Oxygen argues that its pricing strategy is a necessary correction to an unreasonable profit structure in the industry, aiming to make medical beauty services more accessible to a wider audience [13]

以下文章来源于远川研究所 ，作者罗雪妍 远川研究所 . 去年高考季，张雪峰直播间发布11999元/17999元 两档 高考志愿填报服务，2万个名额被一抢而空，给江湖留下"3小时赚2亿"的传说。 今年高考前一周，张雪峰哽咽宣布"或将"停播，声泪俱下不知是为暂停"寒门救星"的使命而遗憾，还是痛惜到账金额少了一笔。但已知的是，上述两档服 务今年分别涨价1000元，上架20分钟后，大部分省份就售罄。 中国人的一生处处都是分水岭，但每一处分水岭在充分竞争的市场有不同的定价。按照研究机构的测算，志愿填报这一分水岭，市场规模就在过去十年翻 了十倍。 未成年人或许还不懂"同分不同命"的残酷现实，但他们的父母大概都对"选择比努力更重要"这句话感触深刻。 复杂的规则、善变的环境、性价比的权衡叠加在一起，高考志愿填报成为一场比高考更复杂的较量。 被放大的焦虑 过去十年，高考的难度未必增加，但志愿填报的复杂性却与日俱增。 刻画这个时代 高考门前是非多。 文 ｜ 罗雪妍 编辑 ｜ 李墨天 来源｜ 远川研究所（ID： YuanChuanInstitution ） 封面来源 ｜ 视觉中国 菜单上有270个菜都足以让人头皮发麻，更不用说填志 ...

Core Insights - The pricing adjustment of N134 carbon black is driven by changes in market supply and demand dynamics, particularly in the rubber products sector, leading to supply tightness and inventory pressure [2] - Rising production costs due to increased raw material prices and stricter environmental regulations necessitate price adjustments for N134 carbon black to maintain profitability [2] Group 1: Reasons for Pricing Adjustment - Market supply and demand changes are a primary reason for the pricing adjustment, with increasing demand in the rubber products sector causing supply constraints [2] - Cost pressures from high-quality raw material requirements and complex production processes are significant factors driving the need for price adjustments [2] Group 2: Impacts of Pricing Adjustment - Price increases may lead to a potential decline in market competitiveness, as some customers might shift to lower-priced alternatives, affecting market position and sales [3] - The price adjustment could increase production cost pressures for end-user industries, particularly in rubber and plastics, potentially impacting profitability and market competitiveness [3] Group 3: Challenges Faced - Demand volatility poses a challenge, as market trends are influenced by various factors such as economic conditions and policy changes, making price adjustments more difficult if demand decreases [3] - Supply chain management challenges arise from the need to control costs and ensure smooth operations across raw material procurement, production processes, and logistics [3] Group 4: Strategies to Address Challenges - Companies should strengthen collaboration with raw material suppliers to secure stable supply channels and monitor price fluctuations to reduce costs [4] - Improving production technology and enhancing innovation capabilities can help lower production costs and increase efficiency [4] - Conducting market research and customer analysis is essential to understand demand changes and develop reasonable pricing strategies to maintain competitiveness [4]

Core Insights - The article discusses the evolving landscape of college entrance examination (Gaokao) volunteer filling services in China, highlighting the increasing complexity and commercialization of this process. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The market for college volunteer filling services has grown tenfold over the past decade, indicating a significant increase in demand and competition [3] - Zhang Xuefeng's services, priced at 11,999 yuan and 17,999 yuan, sold out within 20 minutes this year, reflecting the high demand despite a price increase of 1,000 yuan from the previous year [2][3] - The number of companies involved in Gaokao volunteer filling services has reached over 1,300, with nearly 70% located in high-exam provinces like Hebei [39] Group 2: Complexity of Volunteer Filling - The transition from traditional volunteer filling methods to more complex systems, such as dynamic ranking and parallel volunteer models, has made the process increasingly intricate [10][15] - The introduction of new systems has led to a significant increase in the number of choices available to students, with some provinces allowing up to 270 different professional choices [15][16] - The complexity of the volunteer filling process has created a lucrative market for consultation services, with companies reporting high profit margins, such as 78.30% for one-on-one consulting [40] Group 3: Psychological Factors - The anxiety surrounding volunteer filling is amplified by the perception that choices made at this stage can significantly impact future career paths, leading families to seek external guidance [21][47] - The article suggests that the fear of making the wrong choice drives many families to invest in consultation services, viewing it as a way to mitigate uncertainty [42][51] - The emotional weight of these decisions is underscored by the notion that this may be the last opportunity for students to exert control over their future [47] Group 4: Industry Trends - The article notes a shift in focus from university prestige to the importance of specific majors, as the number of available majors has increased significantly while the number of top-tier universities has remained relatively stable [18] - The rapid evolution of industries and job markets often leads to a mismatch between popular majors and actual employment opportunities, complicating the decision-making process for students [28][31] - The article highlights the role of external factors, such as industry trends and economic cycles, in shaping the landscape of higher education and career prospects [53]

去年高考季，张雪峰直播间发布11999元/17999元 两档 高考志愿填报服务，2万个名额被一抢而空， 给江湖留下"3小时赚2亿"的传说。 今年高考前一周，张雪峰哽咽宣布"或将"停播，声泪俱下不知是为暂停"寒门救星"的使命而遗憾，还是 痛惜到账金额少了一笔。但已知的是，上述两档服务今年分别涨价1000元，上架20分钟后，大部分省 份就售罄。 中国人的一生处处都是分水岭，但每一处分水岭在充分竞争的市场有不同的定价。按照研究机构的测 算，志愿填报这一分水岭，市场规模就在过去十年翻了十倍。 2022年7月，内蒙古包头某网吧志愿填报现场，图片来源：北青深一度 未成年人或许还不懂"同分不同命"的残酷现实，但他们的父母大概都对"选择比努力更重要"这句话感触 深刻。 复杂的规则、善变的环境、性价比的权衡叠加在一起，高考志愿填报成为一场比高考更复杂的较量。 被放大的焦虑 过去十年，高考的难度未必增加，但志愿填报的的复杂性却与日俱增。 以内蒙古的"动态排名、精准定位"机制为例，考生可以实时获知自己在心仪大学候选人名单中所处的位 次，评估上岸概率——系统关闭前，可以把别人挤出去，也可能被别人挤出来，前一秒北大光华，后一 秒北大青 ...

宏观研究 /[Table_Date] 2025.06.15 2025-06-16 人民币汇率："反直觉"的新范式 [Table_Authors] 韩朝辉(分析师) 登记编号 S0880523110001 本报告导读： 近期人民币汇率与美中利差出现背离，本质在于：美债利率上行并非经济强，而是 信用弱。因此，人民币受益于：1）美元资产信用折价，带动企业结汇意愿提升； 2）高利率压制信用扩张，美国衰退预期强化。未来人民币汇率定价需要充分重视 美元信用这个变量，弱美元环境也给国内流动性和政策空间带来更大的冗余度。 投资要点： [Table_Summary] 央行或许并非近期汇率升值的引导者。 国内投资者或许并非近期汇率升值的推动者。 那么，主导本轮汇率升值的核心因素是什么？——外贸企业结汇。 对人民币汇率定价框架的再思考：美中利差与汇率走势的背离 证 券 研 究 报 告 021-38676666 风险提示：美国关税扰动反复、国内经济压力升温 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 宏 观 研 究 宏 观 专 题 梁中华(分析师) 021-38676666 登记编号 S0880525040019 我们习惯于用"掉期溢价"（即 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles revolves around the escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, particularly the recent military actions by Israel against Iran, which have triggered significant market reactions, including a surge in gold and oil prices [1][5][3] - Following the military actions, gold prices rose above $3410 per ounce, reflecting a strong market response to the heightened geopolitical risks [1][5] - The ongoing instability in the Middle East has led to increased demand for safe-haven assets like gold, as evidenced by the three-day consecutive rise in gold prices following the recent conflicts [5][8] Group 2 - Historical context indicates that geopolitical conflicts, such as the Russia-Ukraine war, have previously led to a rise in gold prices due to concerns over the dollar's status as a "weaponized" currency [6][12] - The articles outline two significant phases of gold price increases linked to geopolitical tensions: the first phase during the Israel-Palestine conflict in October 2023 and the second phase anticipated in April 2024 [8][20] - The analysis suggests that the current gold price trends are influenced not only by geopolitical risks but also by broader factors such as U.S. dollar credibility, U.S. debt crises, and military and technological dominance [8][12][20] Group 3 - A new index, the Gold Implied Order Reconstruction Index (GIORI), has been introduced to quantify the hidden risks associated with the ongoing global order restructuring, which is believed to significantly impact gold pricing [16][20] - The GIORI index has shown a rapid increase since March 2021, indicating a prolonged period of rising gold prices, with projections suggesting it may reach a peak by April 2025 [19][20] - Current geopolitical complexities are compared to the 1970s, suggesting that if gold prices surpass historical resistance levels, they could enter a new phase of significant upward movement [20]

证券研究报告 东吴证券晨会纪要 东吴证券晨会纪要 2025-06-16 宏观策略 [Table_MacroStrategy] 宏观深度报告 20250612：从"管高价"到"管低价"：如何提振核心 CPI？ 如何提振核心 CPI？服务价格可能是主要的潜在空间，预计服务消费补 贴可以提高核心 CPI 约 0.3 个点，对冲居住服务价格下降带来的大部分 拖累。从三大组成部分来看，核心商品补贴即将满周年，未来可能存在需 求透支的风险，下半年和明年核心商品价格价格继续上涨的空间不大；居 住服务价格受限于房价，短期也难以上行。如果要进一步提升核心 CPI， 政策应着眼于除居住外的其他服务价格，服务消费补贴政策是不错的选 择。核心 CPI 里面，除居住外的其他服务大约占比 35%。参考商品补贴 带来的核心商品提振效果，核心商品价格同比增速从去年 10 月-0.1%的 低点回升到近期+0.8%左右的水平，提高了 0.9 个点。如果服务消费补贴 使得其他服务价格也能提升 0.9 个点，那么可以提高核心 CPI 约 0.3 个 点。而前文我们指出，居住服务价格中枢下行拖累核心 CPI 约 0.4 个点， 这意味着服务消费补贴可 ...

Core Viewpoint - The expansion of credit derivatives in the technology bond market is accelerating, serving as both a "risk mitigator" and a "confidence amplifier" for financing [1][2][6] Group 1: Role of Credit Derivatives - Credit derivatives are becoming a key mechanism to address financing challenges for technology enterprises by reducing credit risk through external mechanisms [2][6] - They enhance market confidence and improve financing efficiency by connecting issuers and investors, thereby alleviating concerns about repayment capabilities [2][3] - The use of credit derivatives allows for better risk management for investors, enabling them to hedge against valuation risks associated with high-volatility technology bonds [3][6] Group 2: Recent Developments - Several financial institutions, including Bank of Communications and Shanghai Pudong Development Bank, have successfully completed credit derivative transactions linked to technology enterprises, marking a significant step in the development of the technology bond market [4][5] - The first credit derivative transaction involving a technology enterprise was completed by Bank of Communications, providing credit risk protection through a credit default swap (CDS) [4] - The issuance of a 300 million yuan credit derivative transaction by Shanghai Pudong Development Bank demonstrates the growing acceptance and implementation of these financial instruments [4][5] Group 3: Challenges and Recommendations - Despite the growing application of credit derivatives, there are still institutional shortcomings in capital relief, pricing mechanisms, and legal applicability that need to be addressed [6][7] - The current market shows a lack of participation from commercial banks in credit derivatives due to accounting treatment issues, which may increase capital requirements instead of reducing them [6][7] - Recommendations include clarifying the capital savings potential of credit derivatives, developing a valuation system suited to the Chinese market, and enhancing legal training to mitigate disputes [7][8]