我们离养懒人那是奢谈还有天壤之别我们目前呢整个公共支出里面对社会保障相关的支出占GDP的8个百分点跟中国人均GDP相近的发展中国家平均是花15到20个百分点 消费它还是人们的预期问题就是如果预期好了他可能就肯花钱现在你得出一些政策能够让人眼前一亮就是能改变预期养老保险给上调了20块钱后来我就算了数20块钱也就是60亿人民币所以就产生不了一种对消费的积极的效果 某种意义上呢他一开始对社保领域比如说夯实大家的福利呀步伐比较小比较温和可能是符合我们过去一贯的要渐进改革改良的这种心态摸着石头过小步慢跑 每年加20我想这个背后也有几层思维定势的约束可能有待于大家真理越辩越明逐步的打破这有三个约束吧首先就是对福利社会的担忧那比如说西方你像欧洲可能福利是比较慷慨的反而渐进的丧失了竞争力比如说有的学者会提出来西方这种是养懒人我们不学他们 但这块我们做了一些深度的分析比较我们离养懒人那是奢谈还有天壤之别我们目前整个公共支出里面对社会保障相关的支出占GDP的8个百分点这个已经比2012年翻了一倍了是很好的改善当时只占GDP的4个百分点 那对国际比较呢这个没错OECD就是二十几个发达国家平均来讲是花GDP的四分之一25个百分点在社 ...

【DT新材料】 获悉， 全球化工巨头近期动作频频， 霍尼韦尔 与 巴斯夫 相继完成关键业务并购与剥离交易， 折射出行业深度变革趋势。 1. 巴斯夫：双线并举，强化核心与剥离非核心资产 （1）完成 Styrodur业务出售 （2）完成尼龙中间体企业 收购 7月1日， 巴斯夫 宣布已完成收购 道默化学 在 Alsachimie 合资企业 中所持49%的股 份，至此成为了Alsachimie的唯一所有者 。 6月30日， 巴斯夫 宣布，已完成将其Styrodur®品牌挤出聚苯乙烯（XPS）保温材料业务出售给德国领先保温材料制造商BACHL 。 Styrodur®作为一种 挤出聚苯乙烯（XPS）保温材料 ，虽然在市场上有良好的声誉和稳定的客户群体，但巴斯夫认为将资源投入到 可发性聚苯乙烯 (EPS) 领域更具战略意义。此次交易后，巴斯夫将进一步聚焦于其可发性聚苯乙烯(EPS)保温材料的生产，包括现有的Neopor和Styropor品牌。巴斯夫 计划在2027年前将Neopor在路德维希港的生产能力扩展 50,000吨 ，届时年产量将达到 250,000吨 。 可发性聚苯乙烯 (EPS) 凭借显著的成本优势和卓越的环保 ...

转自：新华财经 优化监管服务机制。广东证监局建立发展专班工作机制，通过走访座谈、专题培训、印发专刊等方式， 形成工作服务台账，动态更新上市公司并购重组进展、困难与诉求，"一司一策"制定推动方案。同时， 组织举办新"国九条""并购六条""重组新规"系列专题培训会，累计培训上市公司实际控制人、董监高等 超1500人次。 搭建综合服务平台。广东证监局联合广东省委金融办指导成立"广东资本市场并购重组联盟"，各证券交 易所、省内有关政府部门大力支持，国有投资平台、产业集团、创投机构、股权交易中心、行业协会、 上市公司、商业银行，以及证券公司等各类专业服务机构踊跃加盟；同步指导广东上市公司协会建立并 购重组"标的库"，助力上市公司提升并购效率，目前并购重组"标的库"在库企业已超千家。 新华财经广州7月3日电（记者孟盈如） 记者从广东证监局获悉，随着并购新规陆续出台，广东并购重 组市场活力迸发，不断加速。"并购六条"发布以来，广东辖区上市公司新增披露并购重组227单，涉及 金额780亿元，交出亮眼的成绩单。 畅通资本循环 重磅案例接续落地 广东证监局数据显示，目前广东辖区内披露、完成重大资产重组交易超20单，持续位居全国首 ...

Core Viewpoint - The collaboration between Sichuan Development Longmang Co., Ltd. and Fulian Precision Co., Ltd. is seen as a strong alliance between two leading companies in their respective fields, aiming for complementary advantages and mutual benefits [2][3]. Group 1: Partnership Details - Both companies signed a Cooperation Framework Agreement to collaborate in equity and capital, as well as in lithium iron phosphate projects and precursor projects [2]. - They plan to establish a joint venture where Fulian Precision or its designated party will hold 51% and Sichuan Development Longmang or its designated party will hold 49%, to invest in a new 100,000 tons/year high-pressure dense lithium iron phosphate project [2]. - Another joint venture will be formed with Fulian Precision or its designated party holding 49% and Sichuan Development Longmang or its designated party holding 51%, to build a 100,000 tons/year lithium dihydrogen phosphate precursor project [2]. Group 2: Strategic Advantages - Sichuan Development Longmang is recognized as a leading company in the domestic phosphate chemical sector, with a focus on lithium iron phosphate and other new energy materials, creating a dual-driven industrial pattern [3]. - Fulian Precision is a core supplier of intelligent electric control and incremental components for new energy vehicles, known for its advanced high-pressure dense lithium iron phosphate materials with significant technical and performance advantages [3]. - The partnership is expected to enhance both companies' core competitiveness in the new energy materials sector and optimize their resource integration capabilities within a green circular economy industry chain [3].

Group 1 - The average wage increase for Japan's fiscal year 2025 is 5.25%, marking the highest growth in 34 years, surpassing the previous year's 5.10% [2][3] - The strong wage growth reflects a tight labor market, with companies facing pressure to recruit and retain employees, which may lead to a more hawkish stance from the Bank of Japan in future monetary policy meetings [2][3] - The information and publishing sector saw the highest wage increase at 5.65%, indicating a significant shift from long-standing wage stagnation [3] Group 2 - Small business employees experienced a wage increase of 4.65%, the largest in 33 years, narrowing the wage gap with large enterprises to 0.6 percentage points [4] - Approximately 70% of employees work in small and medium-sized enterprises, making their wage growth crucial for national wage trends [4] - The government has committed to providing cash subsidies to alleviate inflation burdens and aims to increase average annual salaries by 1 million yen by fiscal year 2030 [5]

Group 1 - The article discusses the urgency of the U.S. President's call for interest rate cuts, suggesting a potential drop below 1% to align with countries like Switzerland and Japan [2] - The proposed "Beautiful Bill" could increase U.S. debt by $5 trillion, leading to a significant rise in interest payments, which are projected to exceed $1.1 trillion annually [4] - The President's frustration is evident as he blames the Federal Reserve's Chairman for inaction, while the Chairman points to tariffs as a hindrance to rate cuts [4][6] Group 2 - The article highlights the contradiction in the President's approach, advocating for lower interest rates while simultaneously increasing tariffs, which could lead to a cycle of high debt, high interest, and high tariffs [8][11] - Key economic indicators show that while U.S. GDP growth is at 2.5%, interest payments have surged by 47%, raising concerns about future fiscal sustainability [8] - The upcoming date of July 9 is critical, as it may mark the end of tariff exemptions, potentially complicating the Federal Reserve's ability to lower interest rates [10][11] Group 3 - The article suggests that the President may not implement drastic tariff increases on all countries, indicating a more nuanced approach to trade negotiations [13][14] - The mixed signals from the President create high uncertainty for investors, businesses, and the general public, as the economic landscape becomes increasingly unpredictable [15] - The potential for a new economic stimulus plan raises questions about how the U.S. will manage its debt burden while attempting to lower interest rates [18]

酷暑季节，能耗也随之攀升。在长虹能源动力中心集控中心，巨大的电子屏幕上实时跳动着经开园区 与河边工业园的用电负荷曲线、光伏板发电功率等数据，仿佛一幅动态的绿色发展图谱。"我们通过 数字化转型来显性化、规范化能碳管理，从而实现节能降碳的精准调控。"长虹能源动力中心负责人 李春川介绍道。通过远程可视化监测，能精准定位到任何一台设备的能耗异常，就像给节能降碳装上 了"慧眼"。 这幅充满科技感的场景，正是长虹控股集团在全球"双碳"战略下重构产业生态的微观缩影。作为能 源消耗与碳排放的重点行业，制造业正经历从传统粗放式发展向绿色集约型的深刻变革。长虹控股集 团以"战略规划—技术创新—全链协同"三位一体的绿色发展"智慧矩阵"，在节能降碳领域蹚出了一 条可复制的路径。 战略织网 ESG管理体系锚定绿色发展 在长虹ESG管理委员会，一块实时刷新的战略地图标注着全集团绿色转型的关键节点，这里如同长 虹绿色发展的"指挥中枢"，让ESG理念从顶层设计渗透至生产末梢。 长虹坚持绿色发展理念，构建起 " 战略-治理-执行-披露 " 四位一体的ESG管理体系，设立ESG管 理委员会，明确董事会为公司ESG管理运行及信息公开披露的最高责任 ...

Core Viewpoint - Europe is experiencing extreme heat waves, leading to public health crises and highlighting the lack of air conditioning in households, with several countries reporting heat-related deaths [1][3]. Group 1: Air Conditioning Scarcity - Air conditioning is significantly less common in Europe compared to the U.S., with only about 20% of European households having air conditioning, while the U.S. has a rate of approximately 90% [3]. - The UK has a particularly low air conditioning penetration rate of around 5%, and Germany is even lower at about 3% [3]. - Four main reasons for the scarcity of air conditioning in Europe include traditional habits, building structures, energy costs, and policy direction [3][4]. Group 2: Traditional Habits and Building Structures - Historically, there has been little demand for air conditioning in Europe, as it has been viewed as a luxury rather than a necessity [3]. - Many European homes were built before the mid-20th century, lacking the infrastructure for central cooling systems, with a significant portion of homes having small windows and high floors, making installation costly and complex [3]. Group 3: Energy Costs and Policy Direction - High energy consumption of air conditioning units and elevated electricity prices in Europe pose significant barriers to adoption, especially for low- to middle-income households [4]. - Since the onset of the Russia-Ukraine conflict in 2022, energy prices in Europe have surged, making air conditioning unaffordable for many [4]. - European policies aimed at achieving carbon neutrality by 2050 discourage air conditioning use, with measures such as limiting public air conditioning temperatures to 27 degrees Celsius [4]. Group 4: Changing Attitudes Towards Air Conditioning - The increasing frequency and duration of heat waves are prompting a shift in societal attitudes towards air conditioning in Europe [5]. - The International Energy Agency predicts that the number of air conditioning units in the EU will rise to 275 million by 2050, more than double the number in 2019 [5]. - In the UK, inquiries about residential air conditioning have tripled over the past five years, indicating a growing demand [5]. Group 5: Political and Environmental Considerations - Political figures in France are advocating for large-scale air conditioning infrastructure plans, criticizing the disparity between elite energy consumption and public energy-saving measures [6]. - Experts warn that without clean energy solutions, the widespread adoption of air conditioning could exacerbate climate change, creating a vicious cycle of global warming [6].

政策动态点评 [Table_Author] 分析师：陶川 分析师：张云杰 研究助理：钟渝梅 执业证号：S0100524060005 执业证号：S0100525020002 执业证号：S0100124080017 邮箱：taochuan@mszq.com 邮箱：zhangyunjie@mszq.com 邮箱：zhongyumei@mszq.com "反内卷"的下一步 2025 年 07 月 03 日 ➢ 当下恰逢中央首提"反内卷"一周年，从财经委会议前瞻即将召开的 7 月政 治局会议，"反内卷"可能会进入一个新的阶段。去年 7 月政治局会议首提"防 止'内卷式'恶性竞争"，一周年之际财经委开会再提"治理企业低价无序竞争"， 意味着在今年 7 月政治局会议的准备过程中，"反内卷"也将进入一个新的阶段。 ➢ 如何理解"反内卷"可能进入新阶段？今年的年中经济回顾具有特殊意义， 一方面是决策层"例行"审视上半年经济运行中出现的问题，另一方面也是为了 更好与"十五五"规划相衔接。预计"十五五"规划《建议》将于下半年公布， "十五五"规划的战略之举在于做强国内大循环，其内在要求是加快推进全国统 一大市场建设，"反内卷"自然 ...

上海市商务委等6部门：到2027年上海市离境退税商店超3000家、网点超10000个 智通财经7月3日电，上海市商务委等6个部门印发《上海市优化离境退税消费环境行动方案（2025-2027 年）》 的通知，其中提出，到2027年，上海市离境退税商店超3000家、网点超10000个，"即买即退"商 店占比超80%，商业集中场所设立集中退付服务点的占比超80%，在入境人员消费相对集中的中心城 区，实现离境退税商店全覆盖。离境退税消费规模比2024年翻两番，国产品牌退税销售额占比提升至 30%以上，更好地把入境流量转化成消费增量，有效扩大入境消费，畅通国内国际双循环，提升上海国 际消费中心城市能级。 ...