Core Insights - The growth of foreign-controlled joint venture wealth management companies in China has been notable, with firms like BNP Paribas and BlackRock's joint venture surpassing 500 billion yuan in total assets, and the former exceeding 600 billion yuan in July [1][3] - In contrast, many domestic wealth management companies experienced a decline in scale in June, attributed to a recovering stock market and low bond yields [1][3] - Fixed income assets are crucial for institutions to expand their scale, especially in a low-interest-rate environment, with the 10-year government bond yield dropping from around 3% at the beginning of 2023 to approximately 1.6% [3][8] Foreign Wealth Management Expansion - Foreign wealth management firms in China have seen a resurgence in scale over the past two years, with BlackRock's joint venture achieving nearly double its size this year [2][3] - The focus of these firms is primarily on fixed income assets, including cash management products and various fixed income strategies, while maintaining a low allocation to equity assets [3][4] - BlackRock's joint venture has launched a total of 120 products across various risk levels, aiming to meet diverse investor needs [4] Domestic Wealth Management Trends - Domestic wealth management companies still dominate the market, with three firms exceeding 2 trillion yuan in scale and nearly ten others surpassing 1 trillion yuan [1][8] - The overall scale of wealth management products in the market reached 30.97 trillion yuan as of June 2025, reflecting a slower growth rate compared to previous years [6][8] - The decline in scale for many domestic firms in June was significant, with a total drop of nearly 10 billion yuan across various institutions [7] Market Conditions and Future Outlook - The current bond market is characterized by low yields, posing challenges for the expansion of wealth management scales [8] - Expectations for monetary policy adjustments, such as rate cuts, are low, with potential policy changes anticipated around September or later [10] - The prevailing view among institutions is to maintain a range-bound strategy in the bond market, with expectations for the 10-year government bond yield to fluctuate between 1.6% and 1.7% [10]

路透调查：预计美国十年期国债收益率将在三个月内降至4.40%，六个月内降至4.30%，低于六月份调 查中的4.35%和4.29%。 ...

更多潜在的阿尔法收益 2025 年 7 月 14 日，贝莱德发布每周评论指出： 美国关税可能加剧市场和证券回报的离散度，从而创造更多获取阿尔法收益的机会。贝莱德将保持风险 敞口，并重仓美国股票。 上周，在美国关税暂停期延长后，美国股市小幅下跌，欧洲股市上涨 1%。美国 10 年期国债收益率小 幅上升。 我们正密切关注本周的全球通胀数据。我们已在美国消费者价格指数的某些部分看到关税影响的早期迹 象，但随着库存耗尽，预计会有更多价格上涨。 市场对上周美国关税暂停期延长的反应平淡，这印证了我们长期以来的观点：不变的经济规律限制了世 界变化的速度。我们仍然超重美国股票，但不排除近期市场会有更多剧烈波动。关于谁将承担关税成本 的不确定性，意味着回报的离散度会进一步加大，同时也带来了更多获取阿尔法收益（即超过基准的回 报）的机会。获取阿尔法收益的两种方式：动态管理宏观风险和承担特定证券风险。 我们早就说过，不变的经济规律 —— 比如供应链不能在不造成重大 disruption 的情况下快速重组 —— 将阻止美国关税回升到 4 月 2 日的水平。关税暂停期延长至 8 月支持了这一论点。 然而，无论关税最终定在什么水平，目前 ...

智通财经7月15日电，印尼5年期国债收益率跌至2023年9月以来最低。 ...

智通财经APP获悉，周二，日本基准的 10 年期国债收益率攀升至 2008 年以来的最高水平，原因是随着 参议院选举临近，人们对财政支出的担忧加剧。LSEG数据显示，10 年期日本国债的收益率攀升至 1.599%，为 2008 年以来的最高水平。30 年期日本国债的收益率也升至创纪录的 3.21%，而 20 年期日 本国债的收益率则飙升至 1999 年以来的最高水平。 Credit Agricole CIB日本宏观策略师Ken Matsumoto表示："由于下周将举行参议院选举，市场预期届时 将会有财政扩张政策出台，因此日本的长期债券收益率和超长期债券收益率目前都在上升。" 在将于周日举行的参议院选举之前，众多日本政客和政党正在积极讨论降低消费税的问题。消息显示， 此次选举将带来更多的经济波动，尤其是与关税相关的波动。 Matsumoto解释道："这就是债券捍卫者们纷纷现身的原因。他们表示：我们需要更高的收益率才能投资 债券市场。所以日本国债市场出现了做空行为。" 除了即将举行的选举之外，还有一些潜在因素可能促使日本央行提前进行下一次加息。虽然东京的通胀 年率在 6 月份降至 3.1%，低于 5 月份的 3. ...

金十数据7月15日讯，德商银行研究部率和信贷研究主管Christoph Rieger在报告中指出，主要政府债券 曲线继续陡峭化，日本国债对远端收益率造成了最新压力。他表示："什么都没发生但曲线却在继续陡 峭化，这令人担忧。"根据LSEG的数据，日本20年期国债收益率周二早些时候创下2.657%的数十年新 高，为1999年11月以来的最高水平，随后回落至2.617%。 德商银行：日本国债对远端收益率带来最新压力 ...

在政治不确定性与财政担忧双重夹击下，日本国债市场的风暴正在加剧，核心10年期债券收益率升破警戒线，市场神经高度紧绷。 7月15日周二，日本10年期国债收益率一度上行2.5个基点触及1.595%，创下2008年以来最高水平。同时，日本20年期收益率攀升3.5个基点至 2.64%，30年期收益率上涨4个基点至3.195%，均创1999年以来新高。而20年期及以上期限债券本月已累计上涨至少20个基点。 此次收益率飙升发生在日本参议院选举前夕，市场担忧执政联盟可能失利，财政政策或将大幅转向，进一步加剧债市抛售压力。分析人士警告， 若"债券义警"大规模抛售，日债市场或重演英国"特拉斯时刻"式的剧烈动荡。2022年，英国前首相特拉斯因激进减税计划引发债市暴跌，最终被 迫下台。 而与超长期国债不同，10年期国债收益率的上行对实体经济影响更为直接。明治安田研究所经济学家Yuichi Kodama指出，10年期收益率是固定房 贷利率的定价基准，其上升将推高企业和家庭的融资成本，进而影响经济活动。 伊藤忠研究所首席经济学家Atsushi Takeda补充称，虽然超长期国债对企业融资影响有限，但10年期收益率的持续攀升值得高度关注 ...

Core Viewpoint - The three major airlines in China reported significant losses for the first half of 2025, with noticeable performance differentiation among them. While Air China and China Eastern Airlines managed to reduce their losses, China Southern Airlines faced an increase in losses due to various challenges, including slow recovery of international routes and competitive disadvantages [1][3]. Group 1: Financial Performance - Air China is expected to report a net loss of 17 billion to 22 billion yuan, a reduction of 5.82 billion to 10.82 billion yuan compared to the previous year [2][3]. - China Eastern Airlines anticipates a net loss of 12 billion to 16 billion yuan, reducing losses by 11.68 billion to 15.68 billion yuan year-on-year [2][3]. - China Southern Airlines, however, is projected to incur a net loss of 11.68 billion to 15.68 billion yuan, an increase in losses by 1.1 billion to 5.28 billion yuan compared to the previous year [2][3]. Group 2: Market Conditions - The domestic passenger market is showing signs of steady recovery, but factors such as declining ticket prices and competition from high-speed rail continue to pressure airline revenues [1][6]. - The average ticket price for domestic economy class in the first half of 2025 was 740 yuan, a decrease of 6.9% year-on-year [6][7]. - The competitive landscape is shifting, with high-speed rail increasingly attracting high-end travelers away from airlines, while discounted airfares are drawing ordinary travelers to aviation [7][9]. Group 3: Operational Strategies - The three major airlines are focusing on expanding their routes in 2025, with Air China emphasizing the importance of both domestic and international route growth for profitability [5][10]. - Air China and China Eastern Airlines reported increases in passenger capacity and turnover, with Air China's capacity up by 3.5% and passenger turnover up by 5.5% in the first five months of the year [5][10]. - China Southern Airlines is also working to enhance its business travel market and international routes to mitigate its geographical disadvantages [10][13]. Group 4: Challenges and Outlook - China Southern Airlines faces significant operational challenges due to its geographical position, which has hindered the recovery of its international routes and increased competition in the domestic market [10][12]. - The airline's performance is further impacted by structural changes in passenger demographics and external factors such as international uncertainties and supply chain disruptions [10][12]. - As the critical summer travel season begins, all three airlines must navigate the dual challenges of revenue management and capacity allocation to improve their financial standings [1][13].

日本首席贸易谈判代表、经济再生大臣赤泽亮正：我们正在关注债券市场进展，拒绝就日本国债收益率 走势置评。 ...

周二（7月15日）亚洲时段，现货黄金震荡上涨，刚刚站上3350美元/盎司，周一金价上演"过山车"行 情，现货黄金高开低走，盘中再创三周新高后回吐日内全部涨幅，最终收跌，本交易日重点关注美国6 月CPI年率及月率等数据。 此外，美联储主席鲍威尔的去留问题也开始牵动市场神经。特朗普政府近期频频对美联储施压，要求降 低利率。特朗普还对美联储总部大楼翻修超支问题提出质疑。白宫经济顾问哈西特甚至将超支7亿美元 的责任归咎于美联储。虽然直接解雇鲍威尔的可能性不大，但这种政治干预已经让市场感到不安。 现货黄金周一早盘高开，冲高3375一线受阻回落，日线收长上影阴线。单看日线今天倾向反弹空，但是 结合周线，今天金价暂时倾向震荡为主。日线阻力3365附近，小时线在3354也是日内多空分水，不过凌 晨反弹高点在3351，也就是黄金行情要想下跌，倾向3351附近回落。下方目标先看昨天低点3341附近， 破位看3334-30附近。 特朗普周一表示，美国才刚刚开始征收关税，并声称仅汽车和钢铁关税就为美国带来了1880亿美元的收 入。 周一美国30年期国债收益率一度升至五周最高，略低于5%；10年期国债收益率也攀升至4.447%，触及 ...