7月10日，《北京市深化改革提振消费专项行动方案》发布。其中，在优化住房消费新供给方面提出， 进一步发挥住房公积金促进作用，支持缴存人在提取公积金支付购房首付款的同时申请住房公积金个人 住房贷款。研究制定住房公积金个人住房贷款"带押过户"政策，并开展相关业务。 NO.4 龙光集团近220亿元境内债重组方案获批 点评：这是积极响应国家扩大公积金使用范围的举措。这将降低购房门槛，减轻资金压力，刺激住房消 费，且为二手房交易带来便利，也为其他城市公积金政策优化提供示范。 NO.2 招商蛇口将发放2024年度分红17.5亿元 7月10日，招商蛇口发布2024年度利润分配方案实施公告。以特定基数，向全体股东每10股派现1.9353 元（含税），不转增股本。若享有分配权股数变动，将按总额不变原则调整每股分红。股权登记日为7 月16日，除息及发放日为17日，实际分红17.5亿元。 点评：近年来，招商蛇口通过股份回购、现金分红回馈股东，体现出对股东回报的重视。此次分红展现 其财务稳健，有利于提升投资者信心。 NO.3 苏州出让三宗宅地均底价成交 7月9日，苏州本级出让3宗宅地，总建筑面积16.10万平方米，起始价15.48亿 ...

Core Insights - The real estate market in Kunming has shown significant changes in the first half of 2025, with a notable increase in new residential property transactions and a shift in market dynamics towards innovative products [1][15] - The emergence of innovative housing products, particularly those with zero or negative public area, has gained traction among buyers, especially among the younger demographic [1][10] Market Performance - In the first half of 2025, the transaction volume of new residential properties in Kunming reached 1.68 million square meters, representing a 22% year-on-year increase, translating to approximately 14,000 units sold [1] - The average monthly sales of new homes were around 2,510 units, indicating a robust market activity [1] Buyer Demographics - The primary buyers in the Kunming real estate market are now 90s generation clients from other provinces and local improvement buyers, favoring well-located, reasonably priced innovative residential products [3][15] - Preferred property sizes are between 130-150 square meters, with total prices ranging from 2.5 to 3 million yuan [3] Product Trends - The market has seen a rise in the popularity of fourth-generation residential products, which have been well-received by buyers, with two projects achieving sales of 448 million yuan and 257 million yuan respectively [8][10] - Traditional high-density projects are losing competitiveness, while projects with high space utilization and advantageous locations remain resilient [10][15] Sales Dynamics - The top-selling projects in the first half of 2025 include several innovative and improvement-oriented developments, contrasting with older, less competitive offerings [7][11] - The introduction of housing ticket projects has provided new avenues for inventory clearance, with significant sales success reported [12][15] Future Outlook - The market is expected to continue favoring innovative residential products, with traditional high-density and high-public area projects facing increasing sales pressure [15] - Companies are likely to focus on core areas and zero-public area markets as the new battleground for competition [15]

关税扰动降低，双雄份额提升趋势未改 [Table_Industry] 家用电器业 [Table_Invest] 评级： 增持 ——黑电行业更新报告 | [table_Authors] 蔡雯娟(分析师) | 曲世强(研究助理) | 谢丛睿(分析师) | | --- | --- | --- | | 021-38676666 | 021-38676666 | 021-38676666 | | 登记编号 S0880521050002 | S0880123070132 | S0880523090004 | 本报告导读： 越南作为对美产能重要基地，视为对美关税谈判风向标，多数国家达成新关税税率 有所降低，关税扰动降低；黑电双雄份额提升趋势未改，全球供应链韧性强。 投资要点： 股 票 研 究 行 业 跟 踪 报 证 券 研 究 报 告 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 告 股票研究 /[Table_Date] 2025.07.11 [Table_Summary] 投资建议：黑电行业正处于需求复苏与技术升级的窗口期，全球产 能布局（尤其墨西哥、越南）是应对关税挑战的核心策略。中国品 牌在高端化和成本控制上的优势，为行业带来韧 ...

Group 1 - Jamie Dimon, CEO of JPMorgan Chase, believes the market is underestimating the likelihood of interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve, suggesting a probability of 40% to 50% compared to the market's 20% [1] - Dimon's perspective indicates a more cautious view of the economic environment, suggesting that the market may be overly optimistic about the Fed's policy direction [1] - There is increasing divergence within the Federal Reserve regarding monetary policy, with some officials supporting rate cuts within the year while others advocate for a more cautious approach [1] Group 2 - The market currently assigns less than a 5% probability to a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in July, reflecting investor caution regarding short-term policy changes [2] - President Trump has increased pressure on the Federal Reserve, criticizing current interest rates and suggesting they are detrimental to the economy [2] - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell emphasizes the importance of policy independence, stating that decisions will be based on economic data rather than political pressures [2]

| 《八� 国投期货 | | 能源 日报 | | --- | --- | --- | | 操作评级 | | 2025年07月11日 | | 原油 | ★☆☆ | 高明宇 首席分析师 | | 燃料油 | ☆☆☆ | F0302201 Z0012038 | | 低硫燃料油 文文文 | | 李祖智 中级分析师 | | 沥青 | な☆☆ | F3063857 Z0016599 | | 液化石油气 文文☆ | | 王盈敏 中级分析师 | | | | F3066912 Z0016785 | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【原油】 隔夜国际油价下行，SC08合约日内跌1.65%。特朗普威胁对巴西关税加征比例自4月初版本的10%提升至50%, 对等关税政策的反复仍令经济及油品需求面临不确定性。有消息称OPEC+9月完成释放216.4万桶/天自恩减产额 度后将暂停增产，但产量的回归及四季度需求环比回落仍将令供需承压。旺季实货端偏强表现及俄油制裁预期 暂对市场构成支撑,但布伦特突破70美元/桶后的进一步上行空间亦受限。 【燃料油&低硫燃料油】 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is optimistic, indicating a potential recovery in profitability and valuation levels for the steel industry due to the "anti-involution" policy [1][4]. Core Insights - The "anti-involution" policy aims to shift the steel industry from low-cost homogeneous competition to high-end differentiated competition, which is expected to lead to a reversal in industry profitability and valuation levels [1][4]. - The steel industry is currently facing weak demand, with prices and profit levels declining. The Producer Price Index (PPI) for black metal smelting and rolling industries has dropped to 89.8, the lowest among five sub-industries [2][4]. - The current state of the steel industry shows a divergence in profitability between upstream and midstream sectors, with upstream mining absorbing most of the industry's profits [2][4]. Summary by Sections Current Industry Status - The steel industry is experiencing weak demand, with PPI for black metal smelting and rolling industries at 89.8, indicating a decline in prices and profits [2]. - The gross profit margin for black metal smelting and rolling industries is only 5.48%, significantly lower than the 19.57% margin for black metal mining [2]. Comparison with 2015 Supply-Side Reform - The supply-demand situation in the steel industry has improved compared to 2015, with a reduction in the degree of supply surplus [3][4]. - The current "anti-involution" policy is less administratively forceful than the 2015 supply-side reforms, which were primarily focused on eliminating outdated production capacity [3]. Policy Impact and Guidance - The "anti-involution" policy aims to prevent homogeneous competition and emphasizes the need for market mechanisms and industry self-regulation to optimize and upgrade production capacity [4]. - The policy includes stricter standards for capacity elimination and encourages the adoption of green and intelligent production methods [5]. Inventory and Profitability Outlook - The steel inventory is expected to rise from the bottom, with significant reductions in social inventory levels for rebar and wire rod [6]. - The industry's return on equity (ROE) and return on assets (ROA) have declined due to the real estate market downturn, but the "anti-involution" policy may help restore market sentiment and improve profitability [6]. Valuation Observations - The current median price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio for the steel industry is 35.51X, indicating potential for valuation recovery as supply-demand structures improve [6].

来源 | 华尔街见闻 关税到底会不会推高通胀，美联储内部分歧巨大，而未来几个月的通胀数据将给出答案。 7月10日，有"新美联储通讯社"之称的华尔街日报记者Nick Timiraos发文表示，美联储内部正就 如何应对特朗普关税风险展开激烈辩论，这一分歧可能终结该机构此前的相对团结局面。官员们 在新增成本是否有理由维持高利率问题上存在分歧。 据Timiraos分析，本月预计不会降息，但美联储主席鲍威尔近期已暗示央行降息门槛可能较今春 有所降低，当时更大幅度的关税上调威胁推高物价并削弱经济。相比更明显的经济恶化迹象，鲍 威尔目前勾勒出一条中间路线：温和的价格读数或疲软的就业数据可能足以在夏末前为降息提供 理由。 Timiraos表示，这一转变为官员们在未来三个月研究通胀和就业数据提供了战术灵活性。他认 为，接下来几个月的通胀数据，将是检验两种观点的关键： 一是关税是否会推高通胀，二是如果通胀走势偏离预期（无论是高还是低），美联储内部在应对 策略上是否会出现分歧。 但两个发展改变了这一局面。首先，特朗普已调低一些最极端的关税上调幅度。本周延长了与十 多个国家双边贸易谈判的窗口期，显示8月1日新截止日期后全球贸易战重新 ...

【策略分析】 逢低做多沥青09-12价差 供应端，本周沥青开工率环比回升1.0个百分点至32.7%，较去年同期高了4.7个百分点，沥青开 工率继续回升，处于近年同期偏低水平。据隆众资讯数据，7月份国内沥青预计排产254.2万吨，环 比增加14.4万吨，增幅为6.0%，同比增加48.5万吨，增幅为23.6%。本周，沥青下游各行业开工率多 数下跌，其中道路沥青开工环比下降1.0个百分点至25.0%，仍处于近年同期最低水平附近，仅略高 于2023年同期水平，受到资金和南方降雨高温制约。本周华东主力炼厂船发为主，出货量增加较多， 全国出货量环比增加10.91%至26.12万吨，降至中性偏低水平。沥青炼厂库存存货比本周环比继续小 幅回升，但仍处于近年来同期的最低位，终端项目资金仍受制约，南方降雨再次增加，北方需求开 始受降雨减少影响而小幅走强。伊朗报复行动力度不及预期，以色列和伊朗停火，中东地缘风险急 剧降温。但近日美国财政部再次宣布对伊朗的制裁措施。全球贸易战的恐慌情绪缓解，只是全球贸 易战阴云仍未完全散去，近期原油价格窄幅震荡，由于逐步进入旺季，建议逢低做多沥青09-12价差。 【期现行情】 期货方面： 今日沥青期 ...

回顾过往，每当出现贸易摩擦或重大政策转向时，国际金价通常随之波动，布局机会倍增。这一次，美 国关税政策的调整同样可能成为黄金行情的重要转折点。领峰贵金属提醒投资者，能否第一时间掌握市 场动态、深刻理解背后的政策逻辑，将决定能否抓住这波潜在的黄金投资良机。 在交易过程中，投资者可能亦会面临到各种突发问题和技术需求。领峰贵金属拥有完善的7×24小时客 户服务体系，不论是交易疑问、行情咨询还是操作指导，平台客服团队都能第一时间响应，保障投资者 每一步操作顺畅无忧。 2025-07-11 17:55:30 作者：狼叫兽 展望未来，美国关税政策或将带来全球资产价值新一轮重估，黄金市场也有望迎来新的增长周期。此刻 正是投资者提前布局的黄金窗口期。领峰贵金属凭借专业的团队支持、先进的交易技术、贴心的客户服 务，正成为越来越多投资者信赖的合作伙伴。在这个充满不确定性的时代，想要把握市场趋势，那就加 入领峰贵金属，紧抓关税变局下的黄金投资机遇！ 近日，美国释放出调整关税政策的明确信号，其宣布自8月1日起，将对来自日本和韩国的部分进口商品 征收25%的关税。这一举措迅速引发全球市场的广泛关注，也加剧了人们对通胀压力、经济前景以及 ...

长期沉淀于缴存人账户的住房公积金，正被多地政策激活并重新定向至住房消费领域。南都·湾财社记 者7月11日梳理发现，北京、深圳、杭州等核心城市近期密集出台实施细则，明确允许缴存人直接提取 公积金账户余额支付新建商品住房首付款，政策落地节奏显著加快。 尽管各地在提取额度、申请时点、资金监管等操作层面略有差异，但政策指向高度一致：通过降低首付 资金筹措门槛，为房地产市场注入增量需求。 据中指研究院统计，今年以来，全国已有超过150次住房公积金政策优化，覆盖贷款额度上调、提取条 件放宽、异地贷款互认等维度。业内人士指出，公积金政策正成为本轮稳楼市的核心工具，既降低购房 门槛，又释放合理需求，为房地产市场企稳回升提供持续动力。 北京新政补位一线 7月10日，北京印发《北京市深化改革提振消费专项行动方案》，其中明确提出进一步发挥住房公积金 促进作用，支持缴存人在提取公积金支付购房首付款的同时申请住房公积金个人住房贷款。 这一政策也引起了市场的广泛关注。上海易居房地产研究院副院长严跃进指出，这一举措降低了购房门 槛，减轻了购房者前期资金压力，让更多有购房需求但资金暂时不足的人能够实现购房愿望，有效刺激 住房消费需求。 至此 ...