Core Viewpoint - The euro's performance is likely to continue being dominated by the US dollar's movements [1] Group 1: Market Expectations - The market has fully priced in a 25 basis point rate cut by the European Central Bank on June 5 [1] - The US PCE data is expected to be the main catalyst for the euro today, potentially keeping it within the short-term range of 1.1300 to 1.1400 USD [1]

据英国金融时报：世界经济论坛创始人克劳斯·施瓦布透露，拉加德曾讨论缩短欧洲央行行长任期，出 任世界经济论坛主席。 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The macro - situation is mixed. Moody's downgraded the US sovereign credit rating, and there are concerns about US debt expansion. However, the good performance of the US manufacturing PMI provides support for metals. The Fed may release a dovish signal if interest rates rise rapidly. The supply of electrolytic aluminum is stable with mainly capacity replacement in Shandong and Xinjiang. The consumption of aluminum has a seasonal off - peak expectation, but the weakening speed is expected to be slow. Aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate in the current range [2][7] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Transaction Data - The price of LME aluminum 3 - month decreased by 18.5 yuan/ton from 2484.5 on May 16th to 2466 on May 23rd. SHFE aluminum continuous three increased by 35.0 dollars/ton from 20020 to 20055. The LME aluminum inventory decreased by 10875.0 tons to 384575 tons, and SHFE aluminum warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 6750.0 tons to 56070 tons. The aluminum ingot social inventory decreased by 2.4 tons to 55.7 tons. The electrolytic aluminum theoretical average cost increased by 326.8 yuan/ton to 16670.58 yuan/ton, and the electrolytic aluminum weekly average profit decreased by 160.8 yuan/ton to 3627.42 yuan/ton [3] Market Review - The weekly average price of Yangtze River spot aluminum was 20298 yuan/ton, an increase of 166 yuan/ton from last week. The weekly average price of Nanchu spot aluminum was 20186 yuan/ton, an increase of 146 yuan/ton from last week [4] Market Outlook - Similar to the core views, the macro - situation is mixed, supply is stable, and consumption has a slow - weakening trend. Aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate in the current range [7] Industry News - In March 2025, the global primary aluminum production was 616.09 million tons, consumption was 588.36 million tons, with a supply surplus of 27.72 million tons. From January to March 2025, the production was 1797.83 million tons, consumption was 1743.96 million tons, with a supply surplus of 53.87 million tons. Guangyuan Economic Development Zone has gathered over 90 aluminum - related enterprises. In April 2025, China exported 52 million tons of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products, a year - on - year decrease of 0.3%. From January to April, the cumulative export was 188 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 5.7% [8][9] Related Charts - The report provides 10 charts including LME aluminum 3 - SHFE aluminum continuous three price trends, Shanghai - London aluminum ratio, LME aluminum premium, etc., which are used to show the price, ratio, premium, cost - profit, and inventory changes of aluminum [10][11][14]

Core Viewpoint - Traders have increased expectations for interest rate cuts by the European Central Bank (ECB), now anticipating three additional cuts in 2025 [1] Group 1 - The market sentiment has shifted towards a more dovish outlook regarding the ECB's monetary policy [1] - The expectation of rate cuts reflects concerns about economic growth and inflation dynamics in the Eurozone [1] - Analysts are closely monitoring economic indicators that could influence the ECB's decision-making process in the coming years [1]

Group 1: Global Payment Currency - In April, the Chinese Yuan ranked as the fifth most active global payment currency, accounting for 3.5% of the total [1] - Excluding the Eurozone, the Yuan ranked sixth with a share of 2.38% [1] Group 2: U.S. Economic Indicators - The U.S. manufacturing PMI rose to a three-month high of 52.3 in May, while the services PMI also reached 52.3, marking a two-month high [2] - New orders in the manufacturing sector increased at the fastest pace in over a year, but manufacturing export orders contracted for the second consecutive month [2] - The U.S. initial jobless claims decreased by 2,000 to 227,000, indicating a healthy job market despite trade policy uncertainties [2] Group 3: European Economic Developments - The European Central Bank (ECB) indicated that the rate cut in April was an early action originally planned for June, with a 90% probability of a rate cut next month [2] - The Eurozone manufacturing PMI slightly improved to 49.2, but the services PMI unexpectedly dropped to 48.9, the worst performance in 16 months [2] Group 4: Japanese Economic Outlook - Japan's core machinery orders surged by 13% year-on-year in March, significantly exceeding expectations and marking the highest level in nearly 20 years [3] - The Bank of Japan's board member stated that there is no need for intervention in the bond market to curb rising long-term bond yields [3] Group 5: Market Dynamics - U.S. stock indices closed mixed, with the Dow Jones remaining flat, the S&P 500 down 0.04%, and the Nasdaq up 0.28% [4] - U.S. Treasury yields collectively fell, with the 10-year yield down 7.58 basis points to 4.529% [5] - International oil prices weakened, with WTI crude oil down 1.23% to $60.81 per barrel [5]

欧洲央行会议纪要：政策可能仍然具有限制性。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that the European Central Bank's minutes suggest that a rate cut in April may be perceived as a preemptive move for a policy adjustment in June [1]

欧洲央行预计将在6月再次降息，但随着经济表现好于预期，以及通胀挑战可能在未来重新显现，后续 暂停降息的呼声渐高。 欧洲央行在过去一年中迅速放松货币政策，因此前失控的消费者通胀如今已得到有效控制，政策重点也 随之转向疲软的经济增长。全球贸易战、美国政策的不确定性，以及欧洲内部根深蒂固的低效率问题， 都加剧了经济增长的困境。 欧洲央行在过去八次会议中已进行了七次降息，这为经济发展提供了一定的喘息空间。然而，政策制定 者现在必须协调短期与长期经济前景之间的差异。 在接下来的几个月里，通胀可能会进一步下降，甚至低于欧洲央行设定的2%目标。这不禁让人回想起 新冠疫情前的十年，当时欧洲央行曾试图推动物价上涨至目标水平，但最终未能成功。 但从长远来看，政府支出的大幅增加、逆全球化趋势、贸易壁垒，以及劳动年龄人口减少导致的劳动力 市场压力，都有可能对物价形成上行压力。 一些政策制定者表示，目前的讨论焦点并非6月的降息决定，因为这一决策已基本在市场预期之中。鉴 于长期风险的存在，后续几个月的政策信号才是关键所在。 欧洲央行执委、直言不讳的政策鹰派人物伊莎贝尔·施纳贝尔（Isabel Schnabel）明确呼吁暂停降息，她 指出 ...

金十数据5月22日讯，欧元区PMI初值将于周四公布。这些数据是投资者最密切关注的数据之一，尽管 如此，它们不太可能改变欧洲央行6月会议的结果。"5月份的PMI很可能不会改变欧洲央行6月份的决 定，但可能会对事情在夏季如何展开产生影响，"丹斯克银行研究的克里斯托弗•凯耶•隆霍尔特在一份 报告中表示。LSEG的数据显示，市场预期欧洲央行6月份降息25个基点的可能性为90%。 丹斯克银行：5月PMI很可能不会改变欧洲央行6月份的决定 ...

欧洲央行管委内格尔：我比几天前更有信心一些。 ...