宏观 股指 市场分析：当日沪深两市成交额 1.45 万亿元，较前日放量 10.57%。银行、创新药等防御性 板块领涨，而半导体、航天航空等高波动板块承压。上证 50 主力合约 IH2506 持仓量环比下 降 2.82%，短期多空分歧加剧。中证 1000 收盘价接近压力位 6226 左右，若突破需成交量配 合；沪深 300 收盘价接近支撑位 3514 左右，短期反弹动能不足。 参考观点：中证 1000 波动率较高，建议关注 6227 附近压力位突破情况；上证 50 建议结合 持仓量变化判断趋势持续性；沪深 300 波动率处于低位，但成交额占比稳定，可作为中长期 配置参考；中证 1000 与沪深 300 的波动率比值（1.56）接近 2024 年均值（1.62），可关注 均值回归机会。 原油 宏观与地缘：上周五美国非农数据超预期，削弱美联储降息紧迫性，同时中美第二轮谈判， 市场对经贸缓和有一定预期，原油价格或偏强震荡，关注 WTI 主力 65 美元/桶关键位置。 市场分析：基本面看，OPEC 大幅调降未来两年全球需求增速，美国贸易战升级，特朗普政 府政策多变，引发市场对全球需求担忧。库存方面，美原油库存虽然下滑， ...

Group 1 - Walt Disney Co has finalized a $439 million deal with Comcast to fully acquire Hulu [1] - Disney's stock is currently trading at $118.75, up 2.6%, marking its third consecutive gain and a new 52-week peak [2] - Over the last nine months, Disney shares have increased by 34% and are on track to extend a 6.5% year-to-date gain [2] Group 2 - The recent peak in Disney's stock price coincides with low implied volatility, with a Schaeffer's Volatility Index (SVI) of 18%, in the 1st percentile of its annual range [3] - Historically, similar low volatility conditions have led to a 10.4% gain in the stock one month later [3] - If this trend continues, Disney's stock could surpass $131 for the first time since April 2022 [3] Group 3 - There is a potential for additional upward momentum due to a decrease in pessimism among short-term options traders, as indicated by the Schaeffer's put/call open interest ratio (SOIR) in the 84th percentile of annual readings [6] - This suggests an unusual appetite for bearish bets recently [6] - The current market conditions present a favorable opportunity for options trading, with Disney's Schaeffer's Volatility Scorecard (SVS) scoring 94 out of 100, indicating it has exceeded options traders' volatility expectations over the past year [7]

证券研究报告|宏观点评报告 | [Table_Title2] 国内市场表现 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 指 数 | 收 盘 | 涨 跌 | 幅度（%） | 五日走势 | | 上证指数 | 3384.82 | -14.96 | -0.44% | | | 沪 深300指 数 | 3865.47 | -19.78 | -0.51% | | | 中证可转债指数 | 434.44 | -1.22 | -0.28% | | | 7-10年国开债指数 | 266.51 | -0.03 | -0.01% | | | 3-5年隐含AA+信用指数 | 189.36 | 0.05 | 0.03% | | 复盘与思考: 6 月 10 日，债市延续窄幅震荡，国债各期限收益率单日变动幅度多在 1bp 以内；权益行情午后显著回落，中 小盘&科技板块跌幅较大，背后或与市场对中美经贸谈判积极预期部分回撤相关。 复盘各类资产表现，股市，大盘指数小幅回落，上证指数、沪深 300、中证红利分别下跌 0.44%、0.51%、 0.08%；科技板块表现疲软，科创 50、创业板指分别下跌 1.4 ...

Core Viewpoint - Investors in Advance Auto Parts, Inc. (AAP) should closely monitor stock movements due to significant implied volatility in the options market, particularly the June 20, 2025 $90.00 Put option [1] Group 1: Implied Volatility - Implied volatility indicates the market's expectation of future price movements, with high levels suggesting potential significant price changes or upcoming events that could lead to a rally or sell-off [2] - The current high implied volatility for Advance Auto Parts options may signal a developing trading opportunity, as options traders often seek to sell premium on such options to capture decay [4] Group 2: Analyst Sentiment - Advance Auto Parts holds a Zacks Rank 2 (Buy) in the Automotive - Retail and Wholesale - Parts industry, which is in the top 29% of the Zacks Industry Rank [3] - Over the past 60 days, three analysts have raised their earnings estimates for the current quarter, while five have lowered theirs, resulting in a decrease in the Zacks Consensus Estimate from earnings of 71 cents per share to 55 cents [3]

6月10日，野村东方国际证券2025中期策略会在上海举办。本次中期策略会以"探寻地缘博弈中的确 定性"为主题，探讨如何在地缘风险与日益增长的不确定性交织中，把握产业与资产的确定性，以及市 场趋势、投资策略与发展方向。 回顾上半年的外部环境，作为美元指数的最大权重，占比超六成的欧元在今年三月后较美元出现持 续性升值，反映资金撤离美元资产的动向。非美资产在上半年获得了非常好的流动性支持，欧债、欧股 乃至恒生科技均获得了国际资金的青睐。 野村东方国际证券认为，市场对多数潜在变化已做出充分计价，包括对美国经济预期的一致性（强 现实弱预期）、中国经济预期的一致性（弱现实强预期）以及国际资本的流向变化。当市场预期逐渐走 向一致，但预期和基本面仍未能充分吻合时，伴随着一致预期步入长尾阶段，下半年市场潜在波动率有 提升的风险。 考虑到国内强政策预期，以及亚太新兴市场在弱美元及国际资金关注下所呈现出的更优流动性环 境，该券商认为，中国权益资产将在下半年跑赢海外市场。在波动性上升的背景下，政策对成长行业的 有力支持不容忽视，这可能促使市场将更多目光投向新兴高景气成长领域。 野村东方国际证券预期，沪深300在2025/2026年营 ...

Group 1 - The credit market is experiencing low volatility, with North American corporate credit default swap (CDS) price fluctuations dropping nearly three-quarters, approaching historical lows [1][3] - Fund managers are adopting a cautious approach, avoiding increased risk exposure until U.S. tariff policies become clearer, leading to a stabilization in risk premiums [3][4] - Despite the low volatility, major banks' bond traders are preparing for potential market turbulence, indicating that future macroeconomic news could impact corporate fundamentals and investor risk appetite [4] Group 2 - The global corporate bond spread has returned to levels seen before the "liberation day" comments by Trump in April, reflecting a relatively tight market environment [3] - There are no fundamental reasons for a large-scale credit sell-off, and no specific industry is in clear distress, suggesting a different environment compared to previous cycles [3] - Investors are bracing for potential increases in volatility due to upcoming events such as the G7 meeting and the July 9 tariff deadline set by the Trump administration [4]

金融期权 2025/06/10 金融期权策略早报 | 卢品先 | 投研经理 | 从业资格号：F3047321 | 交易咨询号：Z0015541 | 邮箱：lupx@wkqh.cn | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 黄柯涵 | 期权研究员 | 从业资格号：F03138607 | 电话：0755-23375252 | 邮箱：huangkh@wkqh.cn | 金融期权策略早报概要： （1）股市短评：上证综指数、大盘蓝筹股高位盘整震荡，中小盘股和创业板股表现为震荡回暖。 （2）金融期权波动性分析：金融期权隐含波动率历史较低水平水平波动。 （3）金融期权策略与建议：对于ETF期权来说，适合构建备兑策略和偏中性的双卖策略，垂直价差组合策略；对于 股指期权来说，适合构建偏中性的双卖策略和期权合成期货多头或空头与期货空头或多头做套利策略。 表1：金融市场重要指数概况 | 重要指数 | 指数代码 | 收盘价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 成交额 | 额变化 | PE | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | （ ...

金属期权 2025-06-10 金属期权策略早报 | 卢品先 | 投研经理 | 从业资格号：F3047321 | 交易咨询号：Z0015541 | 邮箱：lupx@wkqh.cn | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 黄柯涵 | 期权研究员 | 从业资格号：F03138607 | 电话：0755-23375252 | 邮箱：huangkh@wkqh.cn | 金属期权策略早报概要：（1）有色金属区间盘整震荡，构建做空波动率策略策略；（2）黑色系弱势震荡，适合构 建熊市价差组合策略和卖方期权组合策略；（3）贵金属黄金高位盘整，白银多头突破上行，构建做空波动率策略 和现货避险策略。 表1：标的期货市场概况 | 期权品种 | 标的合约 | 最新价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量 | 量变化 | 持仓量 | 仓变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | （%） | (万手) | | (万手) | | | 铜 | CU2507 | 79,330 | 660 | 0.84 | 7.53 | ...

截至2025年6月10日 11:03，中证红利低波动100指数(930955)上涨0.57%，成分股民生银行(600016)上涨 3.70%，丽珠集团(000513)上涨2.96%，江苏金租(600901)上涨2.84%，鲁西化工(000830)上涨2.55%，华 夏银行(600015)上涨2.21%。红利低波100ETF(159307)上涨0.38%， 冲击3连涨。最新价报1.06元。流动 性方面，红利低波100ETF盘中换手0.69%，成交680.72万元。拉长时间看，截至6月9日，红利低波 100ETF近1月日均成交1152.78万元。 太平洋证券指出，增量政策持续落地稳定市场预期，公募基金考核评级机制改革落地有望提高银行板块 配置力度；适度宽松的货币政策环境下，银行板块作为红利资产仍具备强吸引力。建议关注：1）受益 于增量政策下预期修复的顺周期标的；2）区域红利充足、基本面改善、红利属性强劲标的。 跟踪精度方面，截至2025年6月9日，红利低波100ETF近2月跟踪误差为0.050%，在可比基金中跟踪精度 最高。 数据显示，截至2025年5月30日，中证红利低波动100指数(930955)前十大权重股 ...

农产品期权 2025-06-10 农产品期权策略早报 | 卢品先 | 投研经理 | 从业资格号：F3047321 | 交易咨询号：Z0015541 | 邮箱：lupx@wkqh.cn | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 黄柯涵 | 期权研究员 | 从业资格号：F03138607 | 电话：0755-23375252 | 邮箱：huangkh@wkqh.cn | 农产品期权策略早报概要：油料油脂类农产品区间盘整，油脂类，豆类偏弱行情，农副产品维持震荡行情，软商品 白糖延续偏弱，棉花反弹后高位盘整形态，谷物类玉米和淀粉逐渐回暖上升后窄幅盘整。 策略上：构建卖方为主的期权组合策略以及现货套保或备兑策略增强收益。 表1：标的期货市场概况 | 期权品种 | 标的合约 | 最新价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量 | 量变化 | 持仓量 | 仓变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | （%） | (万手) | | (万手) | | | 豆一 | A2507 | 4,145 | 4 | 0 ...