上周五，沪指盘中维持震荡整理走势，深证成指、创业板指弱势下探。截至收盘，沪指微跌0.07%报 3359.9点，深证成指跌0.47%报10005.03点，创业板指跌0.84%报2009.89点，上证50指数涨0.31%，沪深 北三市合计成交10919亿元，较此前一日减少近1900亿元。行业方面，石油、传媒、汽车等板块走低， 保险、酿酒、银行、半导体等板块拉升，复合铜箔、新型电池、航运概念、光刻机概念等活跃。 油价或将持续高位波动 据央视新闻报道，当地时间6月21日，美国投掷了六枚钻地弹用于袭击伊朗福尔多核设施，美国还向伊 朗其他核设施发射了30枚"战斧"导弹。21日，美国总统特朗普在其社交媒体"真实社交"上发文称，美国 已完成对伊朗福尔多、纳坦兹和伊斯法罕三处核设施的袭击。另据路透社消息，美国官员称，美国B-2 轰炸机参与了对伊朗核基地的打击。北京时间6月22日早上，特朗普发表讲话，称伊朗关键的核浓缩设 施已被彻底摧毁。美国和以色列作为一个团队进行了密切合作。如果伊朗不能实现和平，美国会继续攻 击。 中信证券指出，随着美国加入攻击伊朗核设施，中东形势有进一步扩大趋势，预计油价将大幅上行，短 期内油价将持续高位波 ...

1. 据央视新闻，以色列国防军当地时间 20 日表示，当天上午，以色列空军对 伊朗西北部的大不里士和西部的克尔曼沙阿地区的军事目标实施了一系列打击。 地址：北京市朝阳区朝阳门外大街甲 6 号万通中心 D 座 20 层 （100020） 资讯早间报 制作日期： 2025/06/23 隔夜夜盘市场走势 1. 国际油价走势分化，美油主力合约收涨 0.22%，报 74.04 美元/桶，周涨 1.45%；布伦特原油主力合约跌 1.94%，报 77.32 美元/桶，周涨 4.16%。市场关 注中东局势及美国对伊朗政策动向，花旗银行指出若霍尔木兹海峡被封锁，油 价可能飙升至 90 美元。 2. 国际贵金属期货普遍收跌，COMEX 黄金期货跌 0.09%报 3384.4 美元/盎司， 本周累计下跌 1.98%。COMEX 白银期货跌 1.13%报 35.95 美元/盎司，本周累计下 跌 1.11%。美联储官员释放降息信号，中东局势紧张加剧市场避险情绪，全球 贸易政策不确定性持续影响经济前景。 3. 伦敦基本金属收盘全线上涨，LME 期锡涨 2.13%报 32690.00 美元/吨，本周 累计下跌 0.01%；LME 期铝涨 ...

Core Viewpoint - The "National Subsidy" program for consumer goods replacement is not being canceled, and significant funding is allocated to support it, with a total of 3 trillion yuan planned for this year [1][2]. Group 1: Funding and Allocation - A total of 1,620 billion yuan in central funding has been allocated in two batches for the "National Subsidy" program, with 1,380 billion yuan remaining to be distributed [1][2]. - The funding for the consumer goods replacement program is divided into three parts: central long-term special bond funds (3 trillion yuan), local matching funds based on a 9:1 ratio, and additional local funds as needed [2]. - The distribution of the 3 trillion yuan is based on factors such as population, GDP, and previous program performance, favoring regions with better results [2]. Group 2: Impact on Sales - The consumer goods replacement policy has significantly boosted sales, with related product sales exceeding 1.3 trillion yuan this year [3][4]. - Over 6.8 million vehicles have been replaced under the program, and more than 36 million consumers have purchased over 56 million units of major household appliances [3]. - By May 31, 2025, the program had driven sales of 1.1 trillion yuan across five major categories, with approximately 175 million direct subsidies issued to consumers [3]. Group 3: Policy Implementation and Oversight - The Ministry of Commerce emphasizes the effective use of allocated funds and the need for detailed spending plans across different sectors and time periods [4]. - There is a focus on product quality and price regulation, with measures in place to prevent fraud and ensure compliance among participating companies [4].

期货交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1285号 华联期货宏观周报 二手房价环比跌幅扩大 新房销售承压 20250622 研究助理：石舒宇 从业资格号：F03117664 0769-22116880 作者：黄秀仕 交易咨询号：Z0018307 从业资格号：F03106904 0769-22110802 审核：陈小国 交易咨询号：Z0021111 周度观点及策略 周度观点 • 5月份，四代住房标准令各线城市二手房房价环比降幅均有所扩大，同比降幅继续收窄；一线、二线新房房价环比转降。 • 一线城市新建商品住宅销售价格同比下降1.7%，降幅比上月收窄0.4个百分点。其中，上海上涨5.9%，北京、广州和深圳分别下降4.3%、 5.8%和2.6%。二、三线城市新建商品住宅销售价格同比分别下降3.5%和4.9%，降幅分别收窄0.4个和0.5个百分点。 • 一线城市新建商品住宅销售价格环比由上月持平转为下降0.2%。其中，上海环比上涨0.7%（前值0.5%），北京、广州和深圳分别下降0.4%、 0.8%和0.4%。二线城市新建商品住宅销售价格环比由上月持平转为下降0.2%。三线城市新建商品住宅销售价格环比下降0.3%， ...

图片来源：视觉中国 "618购物季"电商平台激战正酣，多地消费者却意外遭遇"国补"暂停申领的局面，也引发了政策提前终 止的猜测。不过，近日官方消息已证实，消费品以旧换新加力扩围政策没有变化，补贴资金使用进度符 合预期，第三、四季度中央资金将陆续下达。 消费品以旧换新补贴即去年以来就持续受到关注的"国补"政策。延续去年经验做法，国家发展改革委、 财政部、商务部等相关部门今年直接向地方安排3000亿元国债资金，加力扩围实施消费品以旧换新，在 今年年度内全年实施——今年1月和4月已分别下达两批共计1620亿元中央资金，支持地方做好一、二季 度消费品以旧换新工作；后续还将有1380亿元中央资金在三、四季度分批有序下达。 "目前全国消费品以旧换新补贴资金使用大致占到全年规模50%左右，整体进度符合预期。"6月20日新 华社报道援引国家发展改革委有关负责人称，"国补"资金包括三个部分：一是中央下达的超长期特别国 债资金，规模比去年翻了一番；二是按照有关规定，地方在中央下达资金基础上按比例配套，按照总体 9:1的原则实行央地共担；三是一些地方还将结合当地工作进度和实施情况，在中央下达以及按比例配 套资金以外，再额外安排地方 ...

国补后续 1320 亿资金将于 7 月、10 月分批下达，618 拉动下 5 月双线零售高增 部分地区补贴额度紧张，6 月以来国补进入调整阶段。据国家发改委、财政部等，25 年计划向地方安排 3000 亿元国 债资金加力扩围实施消费品以旧换新，上半年共向地方下达 1620 亿中央资金以支持消费品以旧换新。截至 5 月 31 日， 国补资金消耗总额达 1550-1650 亿，约占到全年规模 50%左右。受国补资金消耗偏快影响，6 月起，部分区域如重庆、 江苏、广东、湖北等宣布国补政策进入阶段性调整。 下半年国补接续已确定，剩余资金将于 7 月、10 月下达。据国家发改委、财政部，上半年共下达 1620 亿资金支持以 旧换新，剩余 1380 亿将于 7 月、10 月分批下达，确保各地于 7 月陆续重启申领。据各地政府/商务厅通知，重庆第二 阶段政策已在起草过程中，江苏恢复线上申领并实施每日限额策略，广东部分城市恢复线下操作，湖北也将于 6 月下 旬恢复。此外，下半年补贴或通过分领域、分时段等方案细化资金的使用方式，确保政策更加平稳有序、资金均衡使 用至年底。 618 拉动下家电 5 月线上、线下零售继续提速。20 ...

关注、加星，第一时间接收推送！ 文 | 赵伟、陈达飞、王茂宇 联系人 | 王茂宇 摘要 对等关税落地已有数月，但美国通胀表现却持续弱于预期，与联储6月FOMC例会释放的 "鹰派"信息形成 反差。为何关税未能推升通胀、下半年美国通胀会否"卷土重来"？ 热点思考：美国通胀何时"卷土重来"？ 一、回顾：上半年美国通胀表现为何较弱？油价回落、服务通胀降温、关税传导尚不显著 在关税冲击下，美国市场、消费者通胀预期及进口价格上行，但CPI表现较弱。 密歇根大学1年通胀预期 一度飙升至6.6%，4月11日以来10Y美债隐含通胀预期上行13BP，进口价格指数也在4月、5月明显上涨。 但是，美国近几个月通胀却持续不及预期，5月CPI环比仅0.1%。 结构来看，上半年美国通胀的拖累主要来自于能源、核心服务、核心商品。 1）1-5月油价走弱拖累整体 通胀，但6月以来油价大幅反弹；2）美国房租、超级核心服务通胀均稳定降温，可持续性较强；3）关税 对于美国商品通胀已经产生推升效果，但幅度不及市场预期。 二、解构：关税的通胀效应为何低于预期？征收滞后、抢进口、贸易转移、企业吸收成本冲击 关税实际征收进度较慢，是美国通胀尚未明显上升的原因 ...

5月份，全省社会消费品零售总额2352.21亿元、同比增长8.5%，比上月加快0.4个百分点，今年以来呈 逐月加快态势，高于全国2.1个百分点；其中，限额以上单位消费品零售额增长16.2%，比上月加快1.3 个百分点，高于全国8.2个百分点。1-5月，全省社会消费品零售总额11820.14亿元、增长7.5%，比上月 加快0.3个百分点，高于全国2.5个百分点；其中，限额以上单位消费品零售额增长14.3%，比1-4月加快 0.4个百分点，高于全国8.0个百分点。超八成商品零售保持增长。5月份，在限额以上单位的23类商品 中，有19类商品零售额实现同比增长，增长面达82.6%、与上月持平。两新政策效应持续释放。5月 份，在大规模设备更新等政策措施带动下，全省限额以上单位机电产品及设备类商品零售额增长 46.1%；在消费品以旧换新等政策措施带动下，全省限额以上单位计算机及其配套产品、智能手机、可 穿戴智能设备、家用电器和音像器材类、新能源汽车零售额分别增长1.7倍、1.6倍、86.1%、47.3%、 27.0%，对全省限额以上单位零售额增长贡献率达56.8%、同比提高23.6个百分点。基本生活消费品增长 较快。5月 ...

Core Insights - The article highlights the emergence of a youth-driven consumption trend in Jiangsu, particularly in Nanjing, where new retail brands are proliferating to meet the demands of young consumers [4][5] - The concentration of new consumption brands in core urban areas is driven by market potential, resource aggregation, and efficient operations, enhancing competitive advantages [5][6] - As the market saturates, brands are shifting focus to less developed urban and county markets, tapping into a large, youthful consumer base that craves diverse fashion options [7][9] Group 1: Market Dynamics - New consumption brands are clustering in core urban areas due to high population density and strong purchasing power, which provide a rich pool of potential customers [5][6] - Data from a report indicates that Nanjing has the highest number of new retail brand stores, with eight districts ranking in the top 15 in Jiangsu [5] - The shift towards county markets is seen as a response to the saturation in major cities, with brands finding new opportunities in previously overlooked areas [7][11] Group 2: Consumer Experience - The influx of new brands has significantly improved the shopping experience for young consumers, offering a wider range of products from high-end to niche brands [9][10] - Specific examples include the successful opening of popular brands like Heytea in smaller cities, which has created a buzz among local youth [7][10] - The introduction of diverse retail options has transformed county areas into fashionable destinations, enhancing their urban image and cultural atmosphere [11] Group 3: Employment and Entrepreneurship - The growth of new consumption brands has generated numerous job opportunities for local youth, from retail staff to management positions [10] - Young entrepreneurs are also emerging, inspired by the new market dynamics, leading to the establishment of unique local businesses [10] - The article cites a local coffee shop founded by a young entrepreneur as an example of how new consumption trends are fostering creativity and cultural engagement in the community [10]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that Chinese consumer brands are increasingly looking to expand into the Brazilian market, which presents significant growth potential but also complex challenges [1][2] - The Brazilian market is characterized by high trial and error costs, rapidly changing policy barriers, and unfamiliar local consumer habits, which test the resolve and strategies of companies venturing abroad [1] - The event aims to provide practical insights and methodologies through real case studies and expert discussions on how to successfully navigate the Brazilian market [1][2][9] Group 2 - The event, titled "Overseas·502 Closed-Door Meeting," will feature industry pioneers and experts who have successfully entered the Brazilian market, sharing their experiences and strategies [2][9] - Attendees will hear from various speakers, including brand leaders who will discuss pitfalls encountered in Brazil, marketing experts on storytelling, and e-commerce leaders analyzing category opportunities [5][6] - The meeting is designed for C-level decision-makers, ensuring high-quality exchanges and a focus on real market opportunities and challenges [6][7] Group 3 - The event will facilitate a deep dive into practical case studies, moving beyond public relations rhetoric to address the real opportunities and core difficulties in the Brazilian market [7] - It will also serve as a networking platform, connecting 10-15 high-level participants and providing access to a community of 4,000 quality users involved in overseas expansion [8][9] - The meetings will occur monthly, focusing on different regions and themes related to overseas policies, strategies, and practices [10]