二 〇 二 五 年 度 2025 年 5 月 8 日 股指基差系列： 旧引擎熄火，新驱动不足 | 虞堪 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002804 | yukan@gtht.com | | --- | --- | --- | | 李宏磊 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0018445 | lihonglei@gtht.com | 报告导读： 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 ◼ 四月份市场在经济外贸压力和政策托底间持续寻求平衡，面对海外关税问题的施压，我国外交 层面强硬反制、政策层面坚决托底，国家队再次借道 ETF 入市维稳，各宽基指数逐渐回补缺 口，大盘价值板块相对抗跌。但避险情绪主导下市场成交偏弱，日均成交下滑至 1.2 亿。 ◼ 从月度的基差变化来看，IH 和 IF 基差较上月末小幅走弱，IC 和 IM 与上月末基本持平。在典 型的宏观驱动期间，期现相关性快速提高，同时基差波动率亦大幅放大，至月末二者均已有一 定回落。 ◼ 四月基差的主要变化来自于行情波动和资金面变化。上旬由关税冲击主导，避险情绪激发市场 对冲需求，IC 和 IM 快速跌停导致 IH 和 IF 承接 ...

能源日报 | 2025-05-08 伊比利亚半岛炼厂停产水平依然偏高 市场要闻与重要数据 1、纽约商品交易所6月交货的轻质原油期货价格下跌1.02美元，收于每桶58.07美元，跌幅为1.73%；7月交货的伦 敦布伦特原油期货价格下跌1.03美元，收于每桶61.12美元，跌幅为1.66%。SC原油主力合约收跌1.52%，报459元/ 桶。 2、阿联酋富查伊拉石油工业区最新数据显示，截至5月5日当周，阿联酋富查伊拉港的成品油总库存环比上升了 0.1%，达到2074.2万桶。其中，中质馏分油库存下降了20%，至173万桶，为七个月低点，重质残渣燃料油库存下 降了2.6%，至1046.2万桶，为六周低点。轻质馏分油库存从一周前的一个月低点上升至855万桶。（来源：Bloomberg） 3、卡塔尔将6月海运原油的出货价定在较阿曼/迪拜原油价格升水0.80美元/桶；陆运原油的出货价定在较阿曼/迪拜 原油价升水0.70美元/桶。（来源：Bloomberg） 4、欧盟正在考虑对Litasco Middle East DMCC公司实施制裁，这是针对莫斯科影子油轮船队的全面新措施的一部分。 该公司是俄罗斯石油巨头卢克石油公司（L ...

电话.1 0790 TT 70 香港恒生指数 82% 18% 标普500指数 74% 26% 纳斯达克指数 91% 9% 道琼斯指数 50% 50% 日经225指数 56% 44% 德国DAX40指 29% 71% 数 外汇 r 多头 |空头 欧元/美元 57% 43% 欧元/英镑 35% 65% 欧元/日元 72% 28% 欧元/澳元 71% 29% 英镑/美元 24% 76% 英镑/日元 50% 50% 美元/日元 47% 53% 美元/加元 43% 57% 美元/瑞郎 91% 90% 澳元/美元 32% 68% 澳元/日元 32% 68% 加元/日元 63% 37% 纽元/美元 47% 53% 纽元/日元 32% 68% 美元/离岸人 87% 13% 民币 美联储继续按兵不动，鲍威尔强调不确定性，市场降息预期下降，但黄金多头不为所动。据悉美英贸易协议周四达成，英镑应 声跳涨，镑美空头控制局势是否会逆转，后市情绪如何？欢迎前往"数据库-嘉盛市场晴雨表"查看并订阅（数据每10分钟更新1 次） 免责声明:本图表数据来源于公众号:嘉盛集团,数据仅供参考,不作为任何投资建议。 ...

黄金多头跃跃欲试，新的趋势开启了吗？空头能否守住底线？金十研究员Steven正在直播，点击进入直 播间观看>> 相关链接 ...

Group 1 - The recent developments in US-China tariff negotiations have suppressed the upward momentum of gold prices, which experienced a significant increase over the past two days before starting to decline [1] - Currently, the bullish sentiment in the market is slightly prevailing, with attention on the upcoming Federal Reserve interest rate decision and its potential implications for market sentiment [1] Group 2 - The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index shows a bullish sentiment of 72% compared to 28% bearish, while the S&P 500 Index has 59% bullish and 41% bearish sentiment [3] - The Nasdaq Index has a significant bearish sentiment with 84% compared to 16% bullish, while the Dow Jones Index shows a more balanced sentiment with 56% bullish and 44% bearish [3] - The Nikkei 225 Index has a bullish sentiment of 53% against 47% bearish, and the German DAX 40 Index shows a strong bearish sentiment of 84% compared to 16% bullish [3] Group 3 - In the forex market, the Euro/USD pair has a bearish sentiment of 79% against 21% bullish, while the Euro/GBP pair shows a strong bullish sentiment of 69% compared to 31% bearish [3] - The Euro/JPY pair has 59% bullish and 41% bearish sentiment, while the Euro/AUD pair shows 39% bullish against 61% bearish [3] - The GBP/USD pair has a bearish sentiment of 77% compared to 23% bullish, and the GBP/JPY pair is nearly balanced with 49% bullish and 51% bearish [3] - The USD/JPY pair shows a balanced sentiment of 49% bullish and 51% bearish, while the USD/CAD pair has a strong bullish sentiment of 76% against 24% bearish [3] - The USD/CHF pair has a very strong bullish sentiment of 90% compared to 10% bearish [3] Group 4 - The AUD/USD pair shows a nearly balanced sentiment with 51% bullish and 49% bearish, while the AUD/JPY pair has a bullish sentiment of 60% against 40% bearish [4] - The CAD/JPY pair shows a slight bullish sentiment of 52% compared to 48% bearish, while the NZD/USD pair has a bullish sentiment of 60% against 40% bearish [4] - The NZD/JPY pair has a strong bearish sentiment of 67% compared to 33% bullish, and the USD/CNH pair shows a very strong bullish sentiment of 86% against 14% bearish [4]

Group 1 - Hims & Hers Health Inc (NYSE:HIMS) reported a 300% increase in net profits for the first quarter, surpassing both top- and bottom-line estimates [1] - Despite a negative outlook, HIMS received four price-target increases, including a rise from Leerink Partners to $42 from $40 [1] - HIMS shares rose 9.9% to $46.06, recovering from premarket losses and reaching their highest level since February [1][3] Group 2 - Options trading activity is significantly high, with 267,000 calls and 188,000 puts traded, which is six times the average intraday volume [2] - The most popular options contracts are the weekly 5/9 45-strike call and the 50-strike call, with new positions being opened [2] - HIMS is on track for its fourth consecutive daily gain, consolidating above the 60-day moving average and showing a 296% year-over-year increase [3] Group 3 - Short interest in HIMS has increased by 10.8% in the last two reporting periods, with 60.88 million shares sold short, representing 31.9% of the equity's available float [7] - There is potential for a short squeeze if the current pessimism begins to unwind, which could lead to further price increases for HIMS [7]

由于一些利好消息传出后空头被挤压， Wolfspeed (NYSE：WOLF ) 上个月出现了大幅的单日波动。 Wolfspeed 专注于碳化硅半导体，其在效率和性能方面比传统硅具有一些优势。 这项技术对于高需求应用来说是必需的，包括电动汽车、工业电力系统和可再生能源解决方案。 这是一家利基芯片公司，它的成功将取决于这项技术如何发展，以及上述行业的整体需求。 Wolfspeed 的股价在过去两年里下跌了 80% 以上。它一度看起来像是一只前景看好的成长型股票，但现 在情况已不再如此。2016 年以来，该公司的收入开始稳步下降，虽然自 2020 年以来有所增长，但该公 司现在也面临着资产负债表问题。 Wolfspeed 的债务负担非常高，超过 40 亿美元。如果该公司的自由现金流不是负数，这或许不是什么大 问题。 作者 | James Foord 编译 | 华尔街大事件 如果现金消耗持续下去，该公司很可能需要在 2026 年或以后进一步筹集资金，这当然意味着可能的股 东股权稀释。 如果你把所有这些因素综合起来，那么该股票拥有约 40% 的空头流通量就不足为奇了。 但上个月空头遭遇了残酷的挤压。 上个月，多种因素 ...

分析师：黄金似乎出现一些空头回补 金十数据5月5日讯，在美国股指期货下跌的背景下，黄金在亚洲早盘走高。City Index和FOREX.com的 市场分析师拉Fawad Razaqzada说，黄金的走势可能取决于股市的走势和风险偏好。分析师称，金价自 最近触顶每盎司3500美元左右以来一直处于守势，正试图再次找到立足点，似乎出现了一些空头回补。 ...

现货黄金昨日一度逼近3200美元关口，现反弹至3250美元，空头情绪仍稍有升温。欧佩克4月原油产量不增反减，美、布两油今 日均涨超1%，后市情绪如何？欢迎前往"数据库-嘉盛市场晴雨表"查看并订阅（数据每10分钟更新1次） 香港恒生指数 82% 18% 标普500指数 23% 77% 纳斯达克指数 40% 60% 道琼斯指数 45% 55% 日经225指数 59% 41% 德国DAX40指 26% 74% 数 外汇 r 多头 空头 欧元/美元 49% 51% 欧元/英镑 69% 31% 欧元/日元 10% 90% 欧元/澳元 13% 87% 英镑/美元 24% 76% 英镑/日元 60% 40% 美元/日元 79% 21% 美元/加元 37% 63% 美元/瑞郎 89% 11% 澳元/美元 69% 31% 澳元/日元 47% 53% 加元/日元 43% 57% 纽元/美元 56% 44% 纽元/日元 67% 33% 美元/离岸人 86% 14% 民币 免责声明:本图表数据来源于公众号:嘉盛集团,数据仅供参考,不作为任何投资建议。 ...

Group 1 - The stock market is experiencing a volatile rebound with a narrow breadth of gains, indicating an unhealthy rise, suggesting a "tentative entry" rather than a "full commitment" strategy for stock selection [1] - 95% of the components in the European benchmark index are above their 10-day moving average, a rare phenomenon that typically signifies that "easy upward space" has been exhausted [1] - U.S. President Donald Trump's softened tone on tariffs has helped the Stoxx 600 index reach its highest point since early April, while the S&P 500 recorded its best weekly performance of 2023 [1] Group 2 - Major stock indices have recovered over half of their declines since Trump's "liberation day" tariff announcement, largely due to short covering [3] - If volatility continues to ease, investors may further increase their stock exposure, although defensive positioning remains emphasized, particularly in healthcare stocks [3] - The market structure has improved recently, with hedge funds and some long-term investors returning to the buying side after a sharp sell-off due to rapid tariff increases by the U.S. [3] Group 3 - Hedge funds are currently more inclined to participate in the stock market rebound, but the "recession alert" has not been lifted, indicating that recent purchases are primarily for short covering rather than strong bullish sentiment [5] - Trend-following CTAs, risk-parity, and volatility control funds have significantly reduced their stock exposure, with expectations of asset reallocation to support the rebound, though this support is limited by the need for lower volatility and market stabilization [5] Group 4 - Recent client feedback indicates a hesitance to "follow new news," with buying behavior resembling "trial balloons" rather than a genuine trend reversal [7] - Market sentiment has shifted from panic risks to chronic risks, making it difficult to find "consensus trades" [7] - Two potential themes are emerging: capital is flowing out of U.S. stocks into other international markets, and there is a search for severely beaten-down stocks with the highest potential returns [7] Group 5 - JPMorgan's market intelligence team maintains a constructive view on international equities tactically, noting that while risks have receded and the holding environment is relatively favorable, the market has not yet emerged from its troubles [8]