7月10日，有"新美联储通讯社"之称的华尔街日报记者Nick Timiraos发文表示，美联储内部正就如何应 对特朗普关税风险展开激烈辩论，这一分歧可能终结该机构此前的相对团结局面。官员们在新增成本是 否有理由维持高利率问题上存在分歧。 关税到底会不会推高通胀，美联储内部分歧巨大，而未来几个月的通胀数据将给出答案。 据Timiraos分析，本月预计不会降息，但美联储主席鲍威尔近期已暗示央行降息门槛可能较今春有所降 低，当时更大幅度的关税上调威胁推高物价并削弱经济。相比更明显的经济恶化迹象，鲍威尔目前勾勒 出一条中间路线：温和的价格读数或疲软的就业数据可能足以在夏末前为降息提供理由。 Timiraos表示，这一转变为官员们在未来三个月研究通胀和就业数据提供了战术灵活性。他认为，接下 来几个月的通胀数据，将是检验两种观点的关键：一是关税是否会推高通胀，二是如果通胀走势偏离预 期（无论是高还是低），美联储内部在应对策略上是否会出现分歧。 特朗普关税政策调整改变降息条件 Timiraos分析称，4月特朗普宣布的大幅关税上调曾打乱美联储今年恢复降息的计划，引发滞胀担忧。 在那种环境下，美联储官员可能需要看到经济明显放缓 ...

Group 1 - The economic uncertainty is decreasing as policy outlook becomes clearer, particularly with the potential for a trade agreement between the US and India, and the effective communication between China and the US [2] - The overall effective tariff rate in the US is expected to decline to 11.7%, which could lead to reduced uncertainty in trade relations [2] - The "Big and Beautiful Act" has passed in the Senate, outlining the future direction of the Trump administration, suggesting a decrease in economic uncertainty in the second half of the year [2] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve's officials have softened their stance on interest rate cuts, with Chairman Powell indicating that the economic impact of tariffs may be less severe than previously thought [3] - There is a strong expectation for two interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year, with a significant chance of a cut in September [3] - The current macroeconomic conditions suggest a cautiously optimistic stance from the Federal Reserve, which could support a bullish trend in the US stock market [3] Group 3 - Despite potential monetary policy benefits for the US stock market, the current valuations of major indices are high, limiting the upside potential [4] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average is nearing its peak, indicating a high valuation environment [4] Group 4 - The S&P 500 has shown a strong upward trend, breaking through previous resistance levels, with the potential to challenge the 6500 mark in the future [6]

Group 1 - The market is refocusing on the possibility of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September, which is a significant support factor for gold prices [3] - Despite short-term disruptions from better-than-expected non-farm data, inflation expectations are declining, and signs of economic slowdown are evident, maintaining strong market expectations for a September rate cut [3] - If the Federal Reserve initiates a rate cut cycle as expected, it will provide new upward momentum for gold prices [3] Group 2 - As of July 10, 2025, the CSI Hong Kong-Shenzhen Gold Industry Stock Index (931238) rose by 0.53%, with notable increases in constituent stocks such as Huayu Mining (5.06%) and Dengyun Co. (4.17%) [3] - The gold stock ETF (159322) increased by 0.42%, with a latest price of 1.2 yuan, and has seen a cumulative increase of 0.85% over the past two weeks, ranking 2nd out of 6 comparable funds [3] Group 3 - The gold stock ETF fund had a turnover of 3.7% during the trading session, with a transaction volume of 1.217 million yuan, and an average daily transaction volume of 4.8975 million yuan over the past month [4] - The fund's scale increased by 278.28 million yuan in the past month, ranking 2nd out of 6 comparable funds [4] - The fund's net value increased by 13.56% over the past year, with a maximum single-month return of 16.59% since inception [4] Group 4 - The management fee for the gold stock ETF fund is 0.50%, and the custody fee is 0.10% [5] - The CSI Hong Kong-Shenzhen Gold Industry Stock Index includes 50 large-cap companies involved in gold mining, refining, and sales, reflecting the overall performance of gold industry stocks in the mainland and Hong Kong markets [5] - As of June 30, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the index accounted for 66.13% of the total index weight [5] Group 5 - The top ten holdings of the gold stock ETF fund include Zijin Mining (9.59%), Shandong Gold (8.90%), and Zhongjin Gold (7.66%), among others [7]

Core Viewpoint - The gold ETF fund (159937) has shown a positive performance with a 0.70% increase as of July 10, 2025, and a 4.61% rise over the past three months, indicating strong investor interest and market dynamics favoring gold investments [1] Performance Summary - As of July 9, 2025, the gold ETF fund has achieved an 84.63% increase in net value over the past five years, ranking it among the top two in comparable funds [2] - The fund has recorded a maximum monthly return of 10.62% since its inception, with a longest consecutive monthly gain of six months and a maximum cumulative increase of 16.53% [2] - The fund's average monthly return during up months is 3.27%, with an annual profit percentage of 80.00% and a 100% probability of profit over a three-year holding period [2] Liquidity and Trading Activity - The gold ETF fund has seen a trading volume of 1.69 billion yuan with a turnover rate of 0.57% [1] - Over the past week, the average daily trading volume has been 7.86 billion yuan, placing it among the top two in comparable funds [1] - The fund has experienced continuous net inflows for four consecutive days, with a peak single-day net inflow of 87.70 million yuan, totaling 185 million yuan in net inflows [1][2] Risk and Return Metrics - The fund's Sharpe ratio over the past year is 2.49, indicating a favorable risk-adjusted return [3] - As of July 9, 2025, the fund has a relative drawdown of 0.40% compared to its benchmark for the year [4] Fee Structure and Tracking Accuracy - The management fee for the gold ETF fund is 0.50%, and the custody fee is 0.10% [5] - The tracking error over the past two months is 0.002%, demonstrating high tracking precision among comparable funds [5]

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沪铜早报- 大越期货投资咨询部 : 祝森林 从业资格证号：F3023048 投资咨询证号： Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日观点 铜: 1、基本面：冶炼企业有减产动作，废铜政策有所放开，6月份，制造业采购经理指数（PMI）为49.5%， 与上月持平，制造业景气度基本稳定；中性。 2、基差：现货79165，基差765，升水期货；偏多。 3、库存：7月9日铜库存增4625至107125吨，上期所铜库存较上周增3039吨至84589吨；中性。 4、盘面：收盘价收于20均线上，20均线向上运行；偏多。 5、主力持仓：主力净持仓空，空增；偏空。 6、预期：美联储降息放缓，库存高位去库，美国贸易关税不确定性，地缘扰动仍存，美国提50%铜关 税，行情波动加剧. 近期利多利空分析 利多： 利空： 逻辑： 国内政策宽松 和 贸易战升级 风险： 期现价差 自然灾害 1、 ...

南华贵金属日报: 金震银跌 夏莹莹（投资咨询证号：Z0016569） 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1290号 2025年7月10日 【行情回顾】 周三贵金属市场金震银调，周边资产看，美指震荡偏弱，美债收益率明显下降，美股和比特币上涨，原油 震荡，南华有色金属回落。最终COMEX黄金2508合约收报3322.5美元/盎司，+0.17%；美白银2509合约收 报于36.605美元/盎司，-0.39%。 SHFE黄金2510主力合约收报766.82元/克，-1%；SHFE白银2510合约收 8899元/千克，-0.2%。周四凌晨公布的6月美联储fomc会议纪要凸显官员们针对降息前景的分歧加大，纪要 显示，多数官员认为关税或持续推高通胀，少数官员愿意下次会议考虑降息，分歧原因一方面在关税政策自 身不确定性与对通胀影响不确定，另一方在于政府对美联储降息施压动摇部分官员立场。因此对贵金属而 言，或走关税贸易战升级下的避险逻辑，或走关税担忧缓和下的降息增强逻辑。我们维持对贵金属逢低买入 思路。贸易关税方面，特朗普征税函第二波指向八国，其中对巴西征税50%为迄今最高。 【降息预期与基金持仓 】 降息预期总体略有增强 ...

今日周四（7月10日)亚盘时段，黄金期货目前交投于773.54元附近，截至发稿，黄金期货暂报773.58元/ 克，上涨0.53%，最高触及773.64元/克，最低下探767.08元/克。目前来看，黄金期货短线偏向看涨走 势。 黄金期货在缺乏明确方向的交易中维持平盘，美国推迟加征关税与美元走强的影响，持续与地缘政治紧 张局势及不确定性形成对冲。当前期金价格维持在3320美元/盎司附近水平，但本周仍累计下跌近1% 打开APP，查看更多高清行情>> ——此前特朗普政府将所谓"对等"关税实施期限推迟至8月1日，且不排除再次延期的可能。这一决定削 弱了部分避险需求，推动美元和美债收益率上行，与无息资产黄金的避险属性形成竞争。不过，特朗普 政府新的关税威胁及相关贸易不确定性仍为金价提供部分支撑，加之各国央行持续购金，黄金价格底部 依然稳固。 会议纪要还提及，"几位与会者认为，当前联邦基金利率的目标区间相较于中性水平可能不会高出太 多。"这意味着，除非经济出现显著放缓的情况，否则即便后续重启降息，其降息的空间也将极为有 限。 最新公布的美联储6月会议纪要显示，与会者明确指出，风险和不确定性是影响决策的关键因素。他们 强调， ...

贵金属日报 2025-07-10 会议纪要显示委员会认为关税对于通胀的影响存在较大不确定性，少数与会者认为关税将带来 的是一次性价格上涨，但更多数人认为关税将导致持续性的价格上涨。"新美联储通讯社"Nick Timiraos 撰文称联储票委内部已分成三大主流阵营：支持下半年在七月份后进行降息、支持下 半年不降息以及支持在七月议息会议中进行降息。受到特朗普政府强力施压的影响，预计联储 内部所存在的分歧将进一步加大，货币政策预期也最终将逐步倒向鸽派。同时，今日凌晨进行 的 10 年期美债拍卖边际转好，投标倍数录得 2.61，高于前值的 2.52。得标利率为 4.36%，低 于预期的 4.42%。 在美国财政扩张和利息支出高企的背景下，联储的在下半年实行进一步宽松是具备确定性的， 宽财政需要与宽货币紧密配合，我们认为，联储将会在七月份议息会议中维持利率不变，但表 态将会边际转鸽派。并在九月份议息会议中进行 25 个基点的降息操作。在美联储货币政策预 期转松的背景下，需要重点关注白银的做多机会，而黄金在美国宽财政预期已逐步兑现的影响 下表现将会相对偏弱，沪金主力合约参考运行区间 760-801 元/克，沪银主力合约参 ...

金十数据7月10日讯，"美联储传声筒"Nick Timiraos最新发文称，美联储内部正在酝酿的一场关于如何 应对特朗普关税带来的风险的辩论，这可能会结束一段相对团结的时期，官员们可能会在新的成本增长 是否成为理由保持利率高企的问题上产生分歧。最近几周，美联储主席鲍威尔暗示，降息的门槛可能会 比今年春天看起来的要低一些，不过预计本月不会降息。相反，鲍威尔描绘了一种"中间路径"：如果通 胀数据低于预期或就业市场略显疲软，这可能足以让美联储在夏末前启动降息。这一标准低于此前更严 苛的门槛——当时在更大规模关税上调引发剧烈通胀预期的背景下，美联储可能要求更明显的经济恶化 迹象才会考虑降息。特朗普4月宣布的关税上调幅度超出预期，引发了人们对经济增长减弱、物价上涨 的滞胀局面的担忧，打乱了美联储今年恢复降息的计划。但从那以后，两项发展推动了一种可能的转 变。首先，特朗普降低了一些最极端的关税上调；其次，与关税相关的消费者价格上涨尚未成为现实。 这为有关关税是否会导致通胀的相互竞争的理论提供了一个关键考验，并在如何管理预测错误的问题上 引发了内部分歧。 "美联储传声筒"：美联储内部"团结"不再 分歧时代或将登场 ...

2025 年 7 月 10 日 棉花：旧作库存偏紧预期继续支撑期价 傅博 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0016727 fubo2@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 棉花基本面数据 国内棉花现货概况：根据 TTEB 信息显示，棉花现货交投大多冷清，整体基差保持平稳。2024/25 南 疆地方机采 3129/29-30B 杂 3.5 内多数报价在 CF09+1000-1350，疆内自提；2024/25 喀什皮棉 3129/29B 杂 3 内较多报价在 CF09+1100 及以上，仍有低价在 CF09+900~1100 区间，低价较好成交但报 价少，疆内自提。 国内棉纺织企业概况：根据 TTEB 信息显示，纯棉纱市场变化不大，交投气氛平淡。棉花上涨带动下 纯棉纱价格稳中有涨，对涨价下游逐渐接受，但高价难以成交。市场订单依然不足，棉纱涨幅不及棉花， 纺企亏损较大。 美棉概况：昨日 ICE 棉花期货小幅反弹，一方面受商业的逢低买盘支撑，另一方面美联储的会议纪要 再次提高了市场对下半年降息的预期，也对 ICE 棉花期货构成支撑。 【趋势强度】 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 | | 名 称 | 单 位 ...