Core Viewpoint - Germany's exports have declined for the second consecutive month, with a significant drop of 7.7% in exports to the U.S., marking the lowest level in over three years, highlighting the ongoing impact of tariff threats on Europe's largest economy [1][3]. Group 1: Export Data - In May, Germany's goods exports fell by 1.4% month-on-month, exceeding the expected decline of 0.5% [1]. - Exports to the U.S. plummeted by 7.7%, with a value of €12.1 billion, the lowest since March 2022 [3]. - In April, U.S. tariffs had already caused a decline of approximately 10% in German exports to the U.S. [3]. Group 2: Economic Outlook - Joachim Nagel, the President of the German Central Bank, warned of significant short-term economic challenges, with the bank projecting that the German economy will stagnate this year [4][5]. - Despite the challenges, there is some optimism due to the German government's plans to significantly increase defense and infrastructure spending [6]. Group 3: Trade Negotiations - The EU is actively seeking to alleviate tariff pressures through trade negotiations, aiming to lock in a 10% tariff rate before the August 1 deadline [4][8]. - Reports indicate that the EU is close to reaching a preliminary trade agreement with the U.S. to secure a 10% tariff rate, with no indication of increased tariffs for the EU [9]. Group 4: Economic Performance - In the first quarter, Germany's GDP grew by 0.4%, surpassing expectations, partly due to exporters increasing shipments before U.S. tariffs took effect [7]. - Recent data showed an unexpected rise in Germany's industrial output in May, supporting hopes for the economy to recover from years of stagnation [7].

| | | | | | | | 发布日期: 2025/07 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | W 分格号: F025 V 行业板块 | | 品种 | | 趋势研判 | | 逻辑观点精粹及策略参考 | | | | | | | | 短期内,市场成交量逐步小幅萎缩,加上国内外利多因素平平, | | | | | | 股指 | | | 股指向上突破存在阻力,或呈现震荡格局,后续关注宏观增量信 息对股指方向的指引。C | | | | 宏观金融 | | 国债 | | | 资产荒和弱经济利好债期,但短期央行提示利率风险,压制上涨 | | | | | | Fift | 震荡 | | 空间。 市场不确定性仍存,金价短期料震荡为主,关注关税进展。G | | | | | | 白银 | 農汤 | | 关税不确定性仍存,银价料震荡为主。 | | | | | | 월미 | 看答 | | 美国非农大超预期,打压降息预期,叠加海外挤仓风险有所降 温,铜价存在回调风险。 | | | | | | | | | 美联储降息预期降温,叠加高价压制下游需求,铝价存在回落风 | | ...

Group 1 - The article highlights a rare consensus between China and the U.S. in responding to the EU's stance, indicating a shift from persuasion to a more aggressive approach [1] - The EU is facing internal divisions under significant political and economic pressure, with leaders like former German Chancellor Merkel urging unity against U.S. tariffs [3] - The U.S. has imposed high tariffs on EU products, including 50% on steel and aluminum and 25% on automobiles, with threats of further increases if negotiations fail [3] Group 2 - The EU is adopting a tough stance not only against the U.S. but also against China, with demands for China to cease economic cooperation with Russia amid the ongoing conflict [5] - China has responded to EU measures by imposing anti-dumping duties on EU brandy, ranging from 27.7% to 34.9%, effective for five years [7] - The Chinese government has also taken countermeasures against EU restrictions on medical device procurement, indicating a direct response to EU barriers [9] Group 3 - The EU's strong resistance against both the U.S. and China is influenced by complex member state interests and a belief in its ability to act as a global counterbalance [11] - Internal conflicts within the EU are surfacing, particularly between member states like Poland and Germany, which could affect the EU's unified response to external pressures [12] - The EU's strategic focus is primarily on addressing U.S. pressures before dealing with China, although the potential for a sudden agreement with the U.S. remains [12]

Group 1: US-China Trade Negotiations - The US and China reached partial agreement on export controls, with the US lifting restrictions on EDA software and certain aerospace products, while China eased some rare earth controls[2] - The core issues in the negotiations include a 20% tariff on fentanyl and a 24% deferred tariff, with expectations that the 20% tariff may be reduced, but the 24% tariff will require longer negotiations[3] - The deadline for observing the outcome of the fentanyl tariff discussions is July 9, with significant implications for future negotiations[3] Group 2: US Trade Agreements with Other Countries - The US has reached trade agreements with Vietnam and Cambodia, but negotiations with the EU, Japan, India, and Canada have not made significant progress[4] - The agreement with Vietnam includes a 40% tariff on transshipment trade, which may set a precedent for future agreements that include unfavorable terms for China[4] - The US is expected to adopt a strategy of "increasing some tariffs while delaying others" to exert pressure on trade partners[4] Group 3: Potential Risks and Future Developments - There is a risk that the US will impose high tariffs on specific countries and industries, particularly if the trade negotiations do not progress favorably[6] - The US is conducting a 232 investigation into ten strategic products, with tariffs already in place for steel (50%) and aluminum (25%), which could lead to a baseline tariff structure of 10% plus additional tariffs for key industries[5] - Future developments to watch include the progress of US-China trade agreements, the outcome of negotiations with other major economies, and potential new conflicts in the Middle East[5]

谈及日美此前举行多轮谈判仍未能达成协议，石破茂表示，"日本政府避免轻易妥协，该要求的必须要 求，该保护的必须保护，持续进行了强硬磋商。"（新华社） 石破茂说，日本政府在未来的谈判中捍卫国家利益的立场不会动摇，"我们将继续与美国进行谈判，在 维护国家利益的同时，探索达成互利协议的可能性"。 日本政府7月8日在首相官邸召开综合对策总部会议。日本首相石破茂在会上就美国再度提高关税表 示"非常遗憾"，已指示相关阁僚在8月1日之前继续谈判，寻求既维护日本国家利益又能实现双赢的协 议。 ...

日本政府内部越来越多观点认为，由于8月启动新关税，"谈判期限实际上已延长"。不过，日本7月3~20 日处于参议院选举期间，即使磋商推迟，能否达成协议也要看选举结果…… 日美关税谈判出现停滞迹象。美国总统特朗普于美东时间7日中午（北京时间8日凌晨）开 始，向贸易伙伴国通报将从8月1日起实施的新关税税率。首先已通告日本和韩国将征收25% 的关税，并警告如果采取报复措施，将进一步提高税率。日美未能就汽车关税缩小分歧，仍 未达成协议。参议院选举期间日本难以让步，谈判的进展将取决于选举结果。 日本政府内部越来越多观点认为，由于8月启动新关税，"谈判期限实际上已延长"（经济部门 高官）。 日美之间围绕汽车关税问题分歧很大。负责谈判的日本经济财政再生相赤泽亮正4~6月7次访 美，持续进行部长级磋商。但双方的对话未能达成一致，一度引发了9日之前会再次访美的猜 测。 在日本，从7月3日公示到20日投计票，处于参议院选举期间。特朗普表示，可能将对日本进 口商品征收的关税税率提高至"30%或35%"。日本首相石破茂6日在日本放送协会（NHK） 节目中就日美关税谈判强调称，"不会轻易妥协，需要时间。" 美国方面，贝森特指出，"日本将 ...

Group 1 - Iranian President Pezeshkian confirmed that Israel attempted to assassinate him during a recent conflict, but the attempt failed [1][2] - Pezeshkian urged the U.S. to avoid involvement in what he described as Netanyahu's war, emphasizing the need to rebuild trust for potential negotiations [1][5] - The ongoing conflict has resulted in significant casualties, with over 1,060 reported deaths in Iran due to Israeli attacks, and nearly 4,800 injuries [3][4] Group 2 - Pezeshkian stated that if trust can be reestablished, Iran is open to resuming nuclear negotiations, which were previously interrupted by Israeli attacks [5] - He criticized Netanyahu's agenda in the Middle East as one of "endless war," asserting that the U.S. should not be drawn into this conflict [5] - The Iranian government has consistently denied seeking nuclear weapons and expressed willingness to engage in dialogue and accept international inspections [5]

日本经济再生大臣赤泽亮正：至于我们是否能在谈判桌上提出新内容，我的看法是，我们已经将所有必 要的议题都摆上了谈判桌。 ...

日本经济再生大臣赤泽亮正：在与我们就贸易问题进行谈判时，不会设定包括8月1日在内的最后期限。 ...

韩国贸易部长：延长三周关税暂停时间不足以完成谈判，必须加快谈判进程。 ...