银行行业行情如何演绎？——银华投顾每日观点2025.6.26 来源：银华基金投顾 天玑投顾团队 核心观点 1、今日国家发改委新闻发布上提及，7月份将下达今年第三批消费品以旧换新资金，虽然财政支出总量 增速放缓，但财政结构上"重民生、弱基建"特征延续，消费政策的支持有助于提升股市的韧性，叠加低 利率时代资金迁徙，行情长度可相对乐观预期，但考虑到房地产仍然偏弱、未来出口和就业的不确定性 等潜在的结构性问题，行情高度也要合理预期。 2、今日银行行业再次创历史新高，当前银行股息率与10年国债利率差值目前利差大致为2.36%，处于 2008年以来历史区间的16%低分位数水平，考虑到2017年和2018年资金成本和国债利率较高、利差较 低，17年和18年的低利差或不具备常态性，因此当前实际历史分位数可能更低。（数据来源：wind） 3、但这并不意味着银行股要大幅调整，因为低利率时代资产的稀缺性意味着高股息板块的风险溢价系 统性降低了，因此我们倾向于认为银行行业或仍有机会，但要降低预期。 在说回港股，今日港股跌幅大于A股，AH溢价反弹，恒生AH溢价指数今日上涨0.58%，港股更弱的原 因最主要来自港元触及弱方保证水平下港元 ...

大宗商品研究所 黑色金属研发报告 黑色金属早报 2025 年 06 月 27 日 公众号二维码 银河投研黑色与有色 研究员：周涛 期货从业证号：F03134259 投资咨询证号：Z0021009 研究员：丁祖超 期货从业证号：F03105917 投资咨询证号：Z0018259 研究员：戚纯怡 期货从业证号：F03113636 投资咨询证号：Z0018817 黑色金属每日早盘观察 钢材 【相关资讯】 1. 6 月 26 日，国家发展改革委新闻发言人在新闻发布会上表示， （1）将于今年 7 月份下达今年第三批消费品以旧换新资金； （2）抓紧推出加力实施设备更新贷款贴息政策，进一步降低经营主体设备更新融资成 本； （3）预计今年迎峰度夏期间，全国最高用电负荷同比将增加约 1 亿千瓦。国家发展改 革委已会同有关方面聚焦电力保供； （4）今年超长期特别国债资金对设备更新的支持力度为 2000 亿元，第一批约 1730 亿 元资金已安排到 16 个领域约 7500 个项目，第二批资金正在同步开展项目审核和筛选 2.中钢协：6 月中旬，重点钢企粗钢平均日产 214.8 万吨，环比下降 0.5%。据此估算， 本旬全国日产粗钢 ...

Morning session notice Morning session notice 早盘提示 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2025 年 6 月 27 日星期五 研究员： 刘洋 从业资格： F3063825 交易咨询资格：Z0016580 联系方式：liuyang18036@greendh.com | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 【行情复盘】 | 周四国债期货主力合约开盘多数高开，早盘震荡下行，午后多数小幅下行横向波动， | | | | ...

Investment consulting business qualification：CSRC License [2012] No. 669 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669 号 中 信 期 货 国 际 化 研 究 | 中 信 期 货 研 究 所 International 2024-10-09 中信期货国际化研究 | CITIC Futures International Research 2025/06/27 China Futures Daily Note 中国期货每日简报 桂晨曦 Gui Chenxi 从业资格号 Qualification No：F3023159 投资咨询号 Consulting No.：Z0013632 CITIC Futures International Service Platform：https://internationalservice.citicsf.com 摘要 Abstract Macro News: NDRC announced that the third batch of funds for consumer goods trade-in p ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the prevalence of financial scams targeting individuals in need of loans, particularly through deceptive practices like "刷流水" (fake transaction flow) to meet loan requirements [10][11][19]. Group 1: Scam Mechanisms - Scammers often pose as bank representatives or loan service providers, offering enticing terms such as "no collateral," "zero cost," and "high subsidies" to lure victims [11][19]. - The process involves convincing victims to provide personal and banking information under the pretense of qualifying for loans or subsidies, followed by requests to artificially inflate their bank transaction records [13][14]. Group 2: Legal and Financial Implications - Engaging in "刷流水" is illegal and can lead to severe consequences, including account freezing and potential criminal charges [17][19]. - Banks typically require transaction records to assess a borrower's income stability and repayment ability, but artificially created transaction flows are not recognized by financial institutions [16][17]. Group 3: Prevention and Awareness - Individuals are advised to be cautious of "free benefits" and unsolicited financial offers, maintaining vigilance against scams that exploit the desire for easy money [19][20]. - Protecting personal information, such as ID and bank details, is crucial to prevent falling victim to these scams [19][20].

Group 1 - South Korea will utilize all available tools to stabilize housing prices [1] - The total household loan target for financial institutions will be halved [1] - The mortgage loan limit for the Seoul area will be set at 600 million KRW [1]

Group 1 - The Hong Kong SAR government released the "Hong Kong Digital Asset Development Policy Declaration 2.0," aiming to establish Hong Kong as a global innovation center in the digital asset field [1] - The new policy declaration builds on the first declaration from October 2022, emphasizing the government's vision for digital asset development and the practical application of tokenization [1] - The declaration aims to create a robust digital asset ecosystem that integrates with the real economy and social life, reinforcing Hong Kong's position as an international financial center [1] Group 2 - The National Financial Regulatory Administration and the People's Bank of China jointly issued the "Implementation Plan for High-Quality Development of Inclusive Finance," targeting the establishment of a high-quality inclusive financial system within five years [2] - The plan focuses on optimizing the inclusive financial service system, enhancing the inclusive credit system, and strengthening the inclusive insurance system to support private enterprises [2] Group 3 - China Mobile is seeking nationwide partners for the "RWA Ecological Cooperation" initiative to promote the digitalization and capitalization of real-world assets (RWA) [3] - The initiative will select 20 units to form the "RWA Joint Laboratory," focusing on data resource integration, technology research and development, and funding support [3] Group 4 - The Ministry of Commerce announced plans to implement an integrated action for domestic and foreign trade, aiming to cultivate leading enterprises in this area [4] - The ministry will host over 330 events for foreign trade promotion and enhance policy support for enterprises facing difficulties [4] Group 5 - The National Development and Reform Commission plans to implement a loan interest subsidy policy for equipment updates to reduce financing costs for businesses [5] - The sales of related products for the "old-for-new" policy have exceeded 1.4 trillion yuan this year [5] Group 6 - The National Medical Insurance Administration has included a commercial health insurance innovation drug directory in the 2025 adjustment plan, highlighting the growing role of commercial health insurance in the multi-tiered medical security system [6] Group 7 - A new generation of domestically developed CPU, the Longxin 3C6000, was released, which does not rely on any foreign supply chains and meets various computing needs [7][8] Group 8 - The Central and State Offices issued opinions to advance flood control reservoir construction and improve the flood control engineering system [9] Group 9 - The National Development and Reform Commission announced additional central budget investments to support local implementation of labor substitution projects, aiming to address employment and income issues for key groups [10] Group 10 - Shanghai is focusing on industries such as cell and gene therapy, quantum technology, and 6G, aiming to enhance its technological innovation and research capabilities [11]

美联储6月25日当周贴现窗贷款余额63.1亿美元，之前一周53.8亿美元。 ...

Economic Stability Measures - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) announced multiple economic stability measures, including the implementation of equipment update loan interest subsidies and the promotion of mass sports events [1][2] - In May, the industrial added value for large-scale enterprises increased by 5.8% year-on-year, while the service production index grew by 6.2%, indicating stable growth in the industrial and service sectors [1] - Retail sales of consumer goods in May rose by 6.4% year-on-year, marking the highest growth rate in 2024, with fixed asset investment showing steady growth, particularly in the manufacturing sector, which saw an 8.5% increase [1] "Two New" Policy Impact - The "Two New" policy has played a crucial role in stabilizing investment, expanding consumption, and improving livelihoods, with sales of related products exceeding 1.4 trillion yuan this year [2] - The NDRC plans to enhance the management of equipment update projects and accelerate project construction while implementing a structured plan for the distribution of funds for consumer goods replacement [2] Sports and Cultural Tourism Development - There is a growing enthusiasm for diverse and mass sports events, reflecting significant potential in the sports and cultural tourism industries [2][3] - The NDRC aims to expand public fitness facilities and support the development of outdoor sports, targeting the establishment of around 100 high-quality outdoor sports destinations by 2030 [3] - The integration of sports events with cultural heritage, tourism, and dining is being promoted to enhance the attractiveness and overall value of these events [3]

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that the average rate for a 30-year fixed mortgage in the United States decreased to 6.77% from the previous value of 6.81% [1] Group 2 - The current mortgage rate of 6.77% indicates a slight decline, which may influence housing market dynamics and borrowing costs for consumers [1]