最近两年，全球经J都不太平。 又是地缘冲突、又是经J数据低迷。 全球经济似乎已经到了危机的边缘。 但是，巴菲特在今年致股东的信中就告诫过我们： 不要浪费每一次的危机 为什么呢？ 因为每一次危机之后，都是一次财富转移。 而每一次财富转移，都是 我们每个普通人实现财富进阶的机会。 过去40年，我们经历了两轮的大规模财富转移。 第一次大规模财富转移，是在上世纪90年代。 90年代初期，苏东巨变、苏联解体，我们的经济也因为价格闯关受到了冲击，通胀率一度高达 20%以上。 但就在这一场经J危机之后，我们开启了第一轮的财富转移。 这一次财富转移的源头是 工业化+城市化的浪潮 。 这一轮财富转移的逻辑，其实就是把过往在土地里面的钱，拿一半放到了互联网产业里面。 工业化+城市化，带动的是财富、人口以及土地资源逐渐从农村流向城市。 所以在这个阶段，你能看到8亿农民进城、你能看到大量农田和G有土地被转化成了工业用地和城 市住宅用地，导致了土地产权的大调整。 而第一轮的财富转移，主要的方式是 以地生财 。 土地通过30年的房贷，用撬动杠杆的方式撬动了财富循坏。 钱都跑到土地和房子上面流转了，自然会把这一部分资产价格拉上去。 所以， ...

股票研究 /[Table_Date] 2025.07.08 股东结构优化顺利，龙头经营稳步向上 美丽田园医疗健康(2373) 6935023 | 风险提示：客流低于预期、生美-医美导流不及预期、行业竞争恶化。 | | --- | | [Table_Finance] 财务摘要（百万人民币） | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入 | 1780.74 | 1635.41 | 2145.07 | 2572.20 | 3076.26 | 3313.03 | 3590.85 | | (+/-)% | 18.5 | -8.2 | 31.2 | 19.9 | 19.6 | 7.7 | 8.4 | | 毛利润 | 833.79 | 717.84 | 977.10 | 1190.00 | 1444.49 | 1557.17 | 1701.49 | | 净利润 | 193.48 | 103.11 | 215.66 | 228.46 | 307.65 ...

Group 1 - Li Ka-shing's son, Li Zekai, founded FWD Group, which officially listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange on July 7, marking his fourth acquisition of a listed company [2] - Li Zekai has a bold investment style, having previously achieved a nearly 40-fold increase in stock price within a week after acquiring a company valued at over 300 million HKD [2] - He successfully acquired a 54% stake in Hong Kong Telecom for 13 billion USD, using the yet-to-be-acquired telecom as collateral, completing the largest merger in the Hong Kong market in just 18 days [2] Group 2 - Li Zekai aims to build an insurance company covering all of Asia, with acquisitions in Hong Kong, Vietnam, Japan, and Malaysia, making FWD Group the fastest-growing insurance giant in Southeast Asia [3] - From 2012 to the present, FWD Group has made over ten acquisitions, increasing its annual new premium to over 1.9 billion USD, more than five times the amount from ten years ago [3] - Despite the aggressive expansion, FWD Group's operational capabilities appear average, with only Hong Kong Telecom generating consistent profits, while the parent company, PCCW, has struggled financially [4] Group 3 - FWD Group's increasing debt, exceeding 3.6 billion USD as of April this year, has hindered its expansion into mainland China, delaying Li Zekai's Asian strategy [4] - To support FWD's listing and continued acquisitions, Li Zekai has engaged wealthy investors from the Middle East and Japan, indicating ongoing capital operations [4] - The strategy of burning cash for growth is expected to continue as FWD Group seeks to expand its market presence [4]

Core Viewpoint - The company is planning to issue H-shares and list on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange to enhance its global strategy, improve local manufacturing and supply chain capabilities, and strengthen its international market competitiveness [1] Group 1: Company Strategy - The company aims to deepen its global strategic layout through the planned listing [1] - The initiative is intended to enhance the company's overseas business capabilities and governance transparency [1] Group 2: Financial and Regulatory Aspects - The details of the H-share issuance and listing are not yet determined and are subject to approval from the board, shareholders, and regulatory bodies [1] - The H-share issuance will not change the control of the company or its actual controller [1]

如果未来几年美元指数整体处于波动下行的态势，那么人民币兑美元汇率走势可能处于稳中有升之势。这一情景有利于中国的跨境资本流动与人民币国际 化，也有利于增强中国货币政策独立性 文｜张明 1971年至今，美元指数大致走出了三个先下降、后上升的长周期（图1）。 数据来源：CEIC 2022年9月底至2025年6月底，美元指数已经由114.1下降至96.9，降幅为15.1%。考虑到上一轮美联储加息周期已经结束，且美联储从2024年9月起已经步 入降息周期，笔者认为，我们基本上可以确定，从2022年9月底起至今，美元指数大概率已经步入新的一轮长周期，且美元指数的下行期可能持续较长时 间，后续跌幅也会相当显著。 三个美元指数长周期分析 回顾1971年至今的三个完整的美元指数长周期，我们可以得到以下初步结论： 第一个周期的下降期为1971年初至1978年10月底，美元指数由120.5下降至82.1，降幅为31.9%；上升期为1978年10月底至1985年2月底，美元指数由82.1上 升至164.7，升幅为100.6%。第二个周期的下降期为1985年2月底至1992年9月初，美元指数由164.7下降至78.3，降幅为52.5% ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the Basic Chemicals and Oil & Gas sectors [5]. Core Insights - The overall price spread in the industry is weak, with the CCPI-oil price spread at approximately 558, below the 30% percentile since 2012, indicating a potential turning point in the industry as supply and demand begin to recover [1][14]. - Capital expenditure growth in the chemical raw materials and products industry has significantly declined, with a year-on-year increase of only 0.4% from January to May 2025, suggesting a self-adjustment phase in the supply side [2][31]. - The domestic PMI for June 2025 is reported at 49.7, indicating a slight recovery in demand, although uncertainties remain regarding tariff policies post-July 9 [2][16]. Summary by Sections Supply Side - The industry capital expenditure growth has dropped to a low level, indicating a potential turning point for supply-side adjustments, with expectations for a recovery starting in the second half of 2025 [2][31]. - The report highlights that the competitive intensity has increased, leading to a significant decline in profitability across most sub-sectors since the second half of 2022 [2][31]. Demand Side - The report notes a recovery in domestic PMI, but uncertainties regarding tariff policies may disrupt future export orders [2][16]. - The demand for chemical products is expected to improve in the medium to long term, supported by domestic economic recovery and growth in demand from regions like Asia, Africa, and Latin America [2][16]. Investment Strategy - The report suggests that the second half of 2025 may see an upward turning point, with a focus on resilient demand and improved supply dynamics [34]. - Specific recommendations include: - Oil & Gas: Favorable long-term prospects for high-dividend companies like China Petroleum [34]. - Bulk Chemicals: Attention on refrigerants and isocyanates, with recommendations for companies like Juhua Co., Luxi Chemical, and Wanhua Chemical [34]. - Downstream Products: Recommendations for companies like Meihua Biological Technology and Xinghuo Technology, anticipating recovery in downstream demand [34]. - Export-driven chemical products: Companies like Senqilin and Sailun Tire are highlighted for their competitive advantages in exports [34]. - High-dividend assets: Companies like Hengli Petrochemical are recommended for their potential to increase dividend payouts [34].

不过，眼视光行业目前也仍存在着小散乱弱，行业集中度不高、标准化低、技术滞后等痛点。以往的眼 健康服务生态中，眼科医院端侧重于综合眼科疾病的诊疗服务，网点有限，部分机构并未设置视光中 心，配镜处方还需到院外选购眼镜，给客户带来不便。行业的另一端，传统的眼镜店虽然分布广泛，产 品可及性高，但服务的专业度不高，且盈利模式单一，也无力引进数字疗法等新技术，同质化竞争激 烈。在此背景下，眼视光机构就成为链接医院医疗服务和眼镜店消费服务的创新型业态。作为眼健康体 系的初级单位，眼视光机构不仅可肩负基础保健和健康监测的沿哨重任，也能与疑难杂症、手术为主的 眼科医院形成优势互补，成为布局广泛的传统眼镜店向专业化眼视光服务机构转型的重要趋势。而大型 眼科连锁机构以其品牌、技术和资本优势，有望成为这场行业升级的重要推动力量。 面对市场机遇和挑战，何氏眼科在不断巩固传统眼科医疗领域竞争优势，实现内生增长的同时，公司于 去年启动了视光全国加盟连锁项目，融合了基因检测、人工智能、数字化远程服务等先进技术，以及眼 产业的全链条服务与产品，依托三十年积淀的品牌、运营、培训和产业资源等多方面优势，旨在构建覆 盖全国的眼健康服务网络，让更多人 ...

2023年以来，我国股权投资行业迎来调整期。面对特殊的市场环境，北京市先后分两批共设立八支总规模1000亿元市级政府投资基金，担 当"耐心资本"加大对科技创新关键领域的资本投入。 作为北京市唯一一家市属国有资本运营公司，北京国有资本运营管理有限公司受托履行政府引导基金管理机构职责。近日，北京国管党委书 记、董事长吴礼顺在接受记者专访时表示，北京市八支基金通过构建"全周期+逆周期+广覆盖"资本生态，投早、投小、投长期、投"硬科技"， 充分发挥"有效市场"与"有为政府"的合力，服务北京新质生产力发展。 吴礼顺介绍说，北京市这八支政府投资基金在运作中体现了"有效市场"与"有为政府"的协同发力。"基金的投资资金几乎全部来源于政府，投 资项目来源于市科委、中关村管委会，市经信局，十六区和经开区（简称'2+17'机制）推荐，但是项目是否值得投资完全按照市场化逻辑判断 和评估。"吴礼顺说。 如何理解上述特点？吴礼顺解释说，作为全国科技创新中心，北京拥有丰富的创新资源和产业发展基础。北京国管探索设计了"政府推荐项目 +市场化运营"的机制，形成市区联动、条块结合，充分发挥"2+17"合力。一方面，发挥市科委、中关村管委会及市经 ...

AI播客：换个方式听新闻 下载mp3 音频由扣子空间生成 在马斯克周末扬言要建立美国第三政党"美国党"后，特斯拉(TSLA.O)股价周一暴跌近7%，这位全球首 富的净资产一天内蒸发约150亿美元。投资者担心其公司可能因与特朗普的冲突而失去联邦补贴，进而 面临更多阻碍。 组建政党只是马斯克与特朗普之间公开不和的又一动作。马斯克作为特斯拉和SpaceX等公司的CEO， 曾在2024年总统大选期间至少向特朗普阵营捐赠了2.77亿美元。 马斯克成立"美国党"被一些观察家视为将公众不满转化为政治资本的尝试。据悉他已经与美籍华裔政治 人物杨安泽就组党事宜进行了接触。杨安泽是"前进党"创始人，曾竞选美国总统。 虽然"美国党"可能仍将影响美国的政治动态，但它对投资者情绪的直接影响无疑是负面的。目前，市场 信息很明确：利益相关者更希望这位世界首富避开国会山，将注意力重新放在工厂车间。 彭博亿万富翁指数显示，仅一天时间，马斯克的个人净资产就缩水了150亿美元，几乎相当于特斯拉竞 争对手Rivian的总市值。 而根据福布斯的估计，随着特斯拉市值的下跌，马斯克的个人财富目前为3910亿美元，低于前一天的 4050亿美元。尽管有所下降 ...

Group 1: Power Industry Insights - The report suggests that both electricity and coal prices are likely to rise, with electricity price increases expected to outpace coal prices. This trend may end the previous two years' pattern of declining power sector performance in the second half of the year [2][26][27] - National power load reached a historical high of 1.465 billion kilowatts on July 4, 2025, marking a 200 million kilowatt increase from the end of June and a 150 million kilowatt increase year-on-year. The eastern power grid accounted for 422 million kilowatts, with air conditioning loads constituting 37% [4][27] - The Ningxia-Hunan ±800 kV UHVDC project is set to enhance power supply in Hunan, with a total investment of 28.1 billion yuan and a transmission capacity of 8 million kilowatts, expected to deliver over 36 billion kilowatt-hours annually [5][28] Group 2: Capital Market Transformation - The report emphasizes the necessity for capital transformation to match economic restructuring, highlighting the role of government-led funds and patient capital in supporting innovation-driven growth [7][8] - The scale of the primary market has reached approximately 10 trillion yuan, growing rapidly, which presents five key opportunities for secondary market investors, including the need for research-based exit strategies and the increasing importance of mergers and acquisitions [9] - Successful overseas experiences in venture capital are boosting confidence in China's economic transformation, with a focus on integrating government and market-driven approaches [8] Group 3: Real Estate Market Trends - The report maintains an "overweight" rating for the real estate sector, recommending several companies across different categories, including Vanke A, Poly Development, and China Overseas Development [15][35] - In the first half of 2025, land transaction prices outperformed transaction volumes, with a notable structural divergence favoring first- and second-tier cities. The average land transaction price increased by 30.3% year-on-year [16][36] - The average premium rate for land transactions in first-tier cities was 10.7%, reflecting a 6.6 percentage point increase year-on-year, driven by local governments increasing the supply of quality land [17][37]