策略报告 | 投资策略专题 谁在卖？ 证券研究报告 ——A 股七大资金主体面面观 导读：4 月特朗普"对等关税"冲击落地，A 股和港股在月初经历大幅波动之后，由 国家队等部门机构维稳市场并迅速反弹，主要宽基指数 ETF 在此期间获得主力资金大 幅净流入，而两融资金则出现流入转为流出迹象，北向月度日均成交额持续下滑，表 明外资情绪较前期处于低迷阶段，但产业资本净减持规模出现大幅收窄。4 月风险落 地之后，政治局会议指出"统筹国内经济工作和国际经贸斗争，坚定不移办好自己的 事"，5 月 7 日国新办发布会介绍"一揽子金融政策支持稳市场稳预期"，大力推动中 长期资金入市。 风险提示：公开数据存在滞后，资本市场政策出现超预期变化，国内外形势出现超预期恶 化。 2025 年 05 月 09 日 作者 | 吴开达 | 分析师 | | --- | --- | | SAC 执业证书编号：S1110524030001 | | | wukaida@tfzq.com | | | 林晨 | 分析师 | | SAC 执业证书编号：S1110524040002 | | | linchen@tfzq.com | | | 陈英奇 | 联系人 ...

Core Viewpoint - The approval of additional insurance funds for long-term stock investments is expected to enhance the demand for high-dividend and high free cash flow assets, thereby optimizing the investor structure and increasing the stability and resilience of the capital market [1] Group 1: Market Performance - As of May 9, the Dividend ETF for State-owned Enterprises (530880) rose by 0.31%, marking a third consecutive increase, with constituent stocks such as Jiangsu Jinzhong (600901) up by 3.38% and Shanghai Bank (601229) up by 2.01% [1] Group 2: Insurance Fund Investment - The National Financial Regulatory Administration plans to approve an additional 60 billion yuan for long-term stock investment trials, bringing the total approved and planned scale to 222 billion yuan [1] - The influx of long-term capital into the market is anticipated to increase the demand for high-dividend and high free cash flow assets [1] Group 3: Investment Recommendations - According to a report from Zhongtai Securities, the dividend attributes of bank stocks are highlighted, suggesting that investors should actively consider the investment value of bank stocks [1] - The Dividend ETF for State-owned Enterprises closely tracks the Shanghai Stock Exchange State-owned Enterprises Dividend Index, which includes 30 securities with high cash dividend rates and stable dividends [1] Group 4: Fund Performance - Since its inception, the highest monthly return of the Dividend ETF for State-owned Enterprises has been 4.63% as of May 8, 2025 [1] - The management fee for the Dividend ETF for State-owned Enterprises is 0.45%, and the custody fee is 0.10%, making it one of the lowest in comparable funds [1]

证券研究报告 策略 抓落实，稳市场，稳预期 华泰研究 2025 年 5 月 07 日│中国内地 动态点评 核心观点 5 月 7 日，国新办召开介绍"一揽子金融政策支持稳市场稳预期"有关情况 的新闻发布会。我们认为，类平准基金相关表述积极，叠加中美经贸问题有 积极变化，有望夯实股指下沿，支撑场内资金的风险偏好。风格上，中期看， 推动中长期资金入市，大盘权重股更受益。板块上，科创+消费是政策支持 重点再确认。我们维持中期红利+内需+科技的配置建议，短期可适度积极。 解读：上述政策有利于继续提升险资、公募等中长期资金入市规模和占比， 优化权益市场的投资者结构。从政策导向及中长期资金的偏好出发，目前相 对低配的核心指数权重股边际受益。 关注点 1：双降落地，节奏略超投资者预期 首先，降息方面的举措包括：1）政策利率调降 10bp，带动 LPR 及存款利 率下行。2）结构性工具，如再贷款、PSL 利率调降 25bp。3）降低个人住 房公积金贷款利率 25bp。其次，降准方面，降准 50bp。完善存款准备金制 度，阶段性将汽车金融公司、金融租赁公司存款准备金率调降至 0%。 解读：总量上，双降对权益市场的影响偏中性。贴现 ...

Group 1 - The market has shown resilience in liquidity due to external risk expectations and strong policy support for medium to long-term capital inflow [1] - The performance of A-shares is expected to improve as financing may stop its outflow process, creating new opportunities for inflow when new themes emerge [1] - In Q1 2025, the revenue growth rate of all A-shares is expected to decline compared to Q4 2024, while the net profit growth rate is expected to turn positive, indicating significant improvement [1] Group 2 - On Thursday, the A-share market opened lower but experienced upward fluctuations, with the Shanghai Composite Index facing resistance around 3359 points [2] - The focus of policies has shifted towards expanding domestic demand, with attention on the implementation of fiscal policies and consumption stimulus measures [2] - The central bank has signaled easing, and the increase in financing balance is expected to support market liquidity, with ETF funds continuing to flow in [2] Group 3 - The three major indices collectively rose on Thursday, with the Shanghai Composite Index remaining above the 5-day moving average, indicating a short-term bullish trend [3] - A series of financial policies were released, signaling the start of new incremental policies aimed at enhancing economic resilience and stability [3] - More incremental policies are expected to be introduced, particularly in fiscal policy, domestic demand expansion, and stabilizing foreign trade [3]

Core Viewpoint - The recent policy measures introduced by the National Financial Regulatory Administration are expected to significantly enhance the investment enthusiasm of insurance companies, potentially attracting more insurance funds into the market and stabilizing the capital market [1][3]. Group 1: Expansion of Long-term Investment Pilot - The scope of the long-term investment pilot for insurance funds will be further expanded, with an additional 60 billion yuan planned for approval to inject more capital into the market [2]. - As of now, the total approved and proposed scale of the long-term investment pilot has reached 222 billion yuan, with participation expanding from initial companies to include several major insurers [2][7]. - The first batch of 50 billion yuan from the pilot has been fully invested, and the second batch is currently being expedited [2]. Group 2: Adjustment of Investment Risk Factors - The regulatory authority will reduce the risk factor for stock investments by 10%, encouraging insurance companies to increase their market participation [4]. - Lowering the risk factor improves capital efficiency for insurance companies, allowing for a higher proportion of stock investments [4]. - Previous adjustments to risk factors have already been made, with significant reductions for investments in major indices and the Sci-Tech Innovation Board [4]. Group 3: Increase in Equity Investment Proportion - The proportion of equity investments by insurance funds is expected to rise, as recent policies have optimized the investment environment [5][6]. - As of the end of 2024, the total balance of insurance company funds is projected to reach 33.26 trillion yuan, with an increase in stock allocation compared to the previous year [6]. - There remains considerable room for growth in the equity investment ratio of insurance funds, supported by favorable policies [6].

中 泰 证 券 研 究 所 专 业 ｜ 领 先 ｜ 深 度 ｜ 诚 信 ｜ 证 券 研 究 报 告 ｜ 1Q25保险资金重仓流通股深度跟踪 ——加仓交运、食饮，新进银行、通信 2 0 2 5 . 5 . 8 • 1Q25 主要鼓励政策为中央金融办《关于推动中长期资金入市工作的实施方案》、金监总局先后发布第二批长期 股票试点以及《关于调整保险资金权益类资产监管比例有关事项的通知 ◼ "中泰非银保险重仓流通股"体系介绍（欢迎关注Wind组合管理，PMS代码为W1428999213874） • 我们根据Wind平台收录的险资重仓流通股数据——即所有已披露定期报告的A股上市公司前十大流通股东名单 中含保险机构的持仓记录，经过调整后，形成分析样本集开展研究。2025年年初至今（2025年5月6日），组合 绝对回报为0.37%，相对回报为3.59%。 葛玉翔 证券分析师执业证书编号：S0740525040002 邮 箱：geyx01@zts.com.cn 蒋峤 证券分析师执业证书编号：S0740517090005 邮 箱：jiangqiao@zts.com.cn 1 摘要 ◼ 持续低利率环境下，险资再配置收益率面临考验， ...

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese government is implementing measures to enhance the role of insurance funds as patient and long-term capital in the capital market, aiming to stabilize and invigorate the market through increased investment [2] Group 1: Measures to Support Capital Market - The first measure includes expanding the pilot scope for long-term investment by insurance funds, with an additional 600 billion yuan planned for approval to inject more capital into the market [2][4] - The second measure involves adjusting solvency regulation rules, reducing the risk factor for stock investments by 10% to encourage insurance companies to increase their market participation [5] - The third measure promotes a long-cycle assessment mechanism to foster a "long money, long investment" approach [2][6] Group 2: Expansion of Long-term Investment Pilot - The long-term investment pilot for insurance funds began in October 2023, with initial participants including China Life and New China Life, each contributing 250 million yuan to establish a 500 million yuan private equity fund [3] - By early 2025, the scale of the long-term investment pilot had expanded to 1.62 billion yuan, with plans to reach 2.34 billion yuan including the new 600 billion yuan approval [4][5] Group 3: Impact of Risk Factor Adjustment - The adjustment of the risk factor for stock investments is expected to release a minimum capital of 364 million yuan, potentially leading to an influx of 2 billion yuan into the A-share market [5] - The reduction in risk factors is anticipated to improve the investment conditions for insurance companies, allowing them to better align with long-term value investment principles [4][5] Group 4: Long-cycle Assessment Mechanism - The current short assessment cycles for insurance companies have been a barrier to increasing A-share investments, with most companies using annual assessments [6] - The introduction of long-cycle assessments aims to encourage insurance funds to focus on long-term value investments, thereby supporting the healthy development of the capital market [6][7]

在政策频出、产业结构、市场发展等各种有利因素支持下，境内股票交易型开放式指数基金（英文简 称"ETF"）市场已进入"质量提升"新发展阶段。境内ETF总规模达到第一个万亿元历时17年，实现第二 个万亿元历时3年，突破3万亿元仅历时9个月。从3万亿元，到2025年4月份首次突破4万亿元，仅仅耗时 7个月。 深交所以ETF产品为抓手，推出"大话策略之定投"投资者服务系列活动。5月7日下午，深交所"ETF大讲 堂"走进成都，推广定投场景化应用策略，推动行业由推广单一产品向推广投资策略组合转变。 定投策略有助于形成稳定的中长期资金来源 今年1月份，中央金融办、中国证监会等部门联合印发了《关于推动中长期资金入市工作的实施方 案》，重点引导商业保险资金、全国社会保障基金、基本养老保险基金、企（职）业年金基金、公募基 金等中长期资金进一步加大入市力度。5月7日，中国证监会发布关于印发《推动公募基金高质量发展行 动方案》的通知，其中提出，实施ETF快速注册机制，原则上自受理之日起5个工作日内完成注册。 将ETF定投从"小众策略"打造成"大众工具" 随着投资者结构不断优化，ETF市场"机构化"趋势日益凸显，营造中长期资金"愿意投 ...

光大期货金融期货日报 光大期货金融期货日报（2025 年 05 月 08 日） 光大期货金融期货日报 | | 昨日国债期货收盘，30 年期主力合约跌 0.62%，10 年期主力合约跌 0.19%， 5 年期主力合约跌 0.08%，2 年期主力合约跌 0.01%。中国央行开展 1955 亿 | | | --- | --- | --- | | | 元 7 天期逆回购操作，利率持稳于 1.5%。公开市场有 5308 亿元逆回购到期， | | | | 净回笼 3353 亿元。银行间市场方面，DR001 利率下行 4.82bp 至 1.6613%， | | | | DR007 4.7bp 1.6802%；交易所回购市场方面，GC001 13bp 利率下行 至 下行 | | | 国债 | 至 1.5750%，GC007 利率下行 6bp 至 1.6750%。昨日一揽子增量措施出台， | 偏空 | | | 央行发布 3 类 10 项措施，降准降息落地。当前债市抢跑定价基本面走弱和 | | | | 货币政策发力预期较为明显，在经济尚未受到明显外需的拖累，而降准降息 | | | | 已经落地的情况下，债市预计偏空运行。收益率曲 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese Securities Regulatory Commission emphasizes the importance of maintaining a stable and active capital market, highlighting a series of measures to support market stability and enhance market functions [1][2]. Group 1: Market Stability and Confidence - The stability of the stock market is crucial for the overall economy and the interests of millions of investors, with a positive trend in China's economic recovery [2]. - Confidence in market stability is derived from four main aspects: strong leadership from the central government, the implementation of a comprehensive policy system, a clearer narrative in the A-share market, and relatively low valuation levels in the A-share market [2]. Group 2: Supporting Market Recovery - Measures to consolidate market recovery include enhancing market monitoring, developing response plans for external risks, and supporting the Central Huijin Investment Ltd. to act as a stabilizing fund [3]. - Upcoming policies will focus on deepening reforms in the Sci-Tech Innovation Board and the Growth Enterprise Market, improving investor protection, and promoting the issuance of technology innovation bonds [3]. Group 3: Development of Public Funds - The action plan for promoting high-quality development of public funds aims to create a virtuous cycle of increased returns, capital inflow, and market stability [4]. - Key reforms include aligning investor interests with fund performance, enhancing the stability of fund investment behaviors, and improving investor service capabilities [4][5]. Group 4: Addressing External Trade Impacts - The U.S. tariffs have significantly impacted global trade, affecting listed companies in China, which are expected to demonstrate resilience [6]. - The regulatory body plans to enhance support for companies affected by tariffs, including increased regulatory flexibility in areas like equity pledges and refinancing [7]. Group 5: Promoting Capital Market Openness - The regulatory commission is committed to advancing high-level openness in the capital market, with a focus on expanding institutional access and enriching product offerings for foreign investors [7][8]. - Efforts include improving the efficiency of overseas listing registrations and enhancing cross-border regulatory cooperation to protect the interests of companies in foreign markets [8].