FICC日报 | 2025-05-09 聚焦周末中美关税谈判情况 市场分析 线上报价方面。 Gemini Cooperation：马士基20周价格990/1669，21周报价895/1500；HPL 5月船期报价1100/1700，6月份船期报价 1800/3000。 MSC+Premier Alliance：MSC 5月上半月船期报价1160/1940，5月下半月船期报价1130/1890；ONE 5月船期报价 1661/1637；HMM 5月船期报价1067/1704。YML 线下5月船期报价1000/1600。 Ocean Alliance：COSCO 5月上半月船期报价2175/3625；CMA 5月份船期报价1210/1995，6月份船期报价1710/2995； EMC 5月份船期报价1205/1960；OOCL 5月船期报价1125/1650。 地缘端：美国和以色列讨论由美国领导加沙过渡政府。美国特使维特科夫将向联合国安理会通报加沙援助计划。 消息人士：阿联酋正在调解以色列和叙利亚之间的秘密会谈。美国副总统万斯：伊朗可以拥有民用核能。但是伊 朗不能拥有一个能让其得到核武器的项目。也门胡塞官员：停火 ...

EC期货合约价格走势 4000 3500 3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 2504 | | | | | A BALL A BELLER | A | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | | 研究中心能化团队 | | | 2025/5/9 | | 导致 | | | 昨日收篇快 | 涨跌 (%) | 基差 | 昨日成交量 | 昨日持仓量 | | 持仓变动 | | EC2506 | | | 1283.0 | -0.40 | 96.1 | 53581 | | 38142 | -1368 | | EC2508 | | | 1556.4 | -0.21 | -177.3 | 28090 | | 36029 | -109 | | EC2510 | | | 1273.2 | -1.14 | 105.9 | 6765 | | 16670 | -756 | | EC2512 | | | 1458.6 | -0.14 | -79.5 | 1379 | | 3986 | -105 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an industry investment rating. Core View of the Report - The European container shipping line's EC contract showed a decline, with the 06 contract closing at 1288.2 points, down 1.83%. Some shipping companies slightly reduced their May freight rates, and the average online price for large containers in the second half of May dropped to less than $1800, approaching the cost price, which may increase the shipping companies' willingness to suspend voyages. Although the expected traditional peak season for the European line has not been completely disproven, and the tariff policy has not significantly affected the cargo volume, it has added pressure on freight rates on the supply side. After the previous decline, the market lacks upward momentum, and the peak - season potential is also cautiously viewed. It is expected that the overall situation will continue to fluctuate in the short term [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Latest View and Strategy Direction - The EC of the European container shipping line first rose and then fell. The 06 contract closed at 1288.2 points, down 1.83%. MSK kept its freight rate unchanged in the 21st week, quoting $1450 for large containers, while HPL and OOCL slightly reduced their May freight rates to $1700 for large containers. Most shipping companies in the second half of May continued to use the first - half rates, and some slightly reduced them. The average online price for large containers in the second half of May dropped to less than $1800, close to the cost price, which may increase the shipping companies' willingness to suspend voyages. The expected traditional peak season for the European line has not been completely disproven, and the tariff policy has not significantly affected the cargo volume but has added pressure on freight rates on the supply side. After the previous decline, the market lacks upward momentum, and the peak - season potential is also cautiously viewed. It is expected that the overall situation will continue to fluctuate in the short term [1]. EC Contract Volume and Price - EC2506: The latest成交价 is 1288.2 points, down 1.83%, with a trading volume of 53581, a unilateral open interest of 39510, long positions of 22192, short positions of 23424, and a net long position of - 1232 [1]. - EC2508: The latest成交价 is 1559.6 points, up 3.72%, with a trading volume of 39237, a unilateral open interest of 36138, long positions of 23359, short positions of 24483, and a net long position of - 1124 [1]. - EC2510: The latest成交价 is 1287.9 points, up 1.22%, with a trading volume of 11837, a unilateral open interest of 17426, and no long or short positions reported [1]. - EC2512: The latest成交价 is 1460.7 points, up 0.21%, with a trading volume of 1893 and a unilateral open interest of 4091 [1]. - EC2602: The latest成交价 is 1291.4 points, down 0.43%, with a trading volume of 982 and a unilateral open interest of 2735 [1]. - EC2604: The latest成交价 is 1182.6 points, down 0.81%, with a trading volume of 849 and a unilateral open interest of 1144 [1]. - The total trading volume is 108379, the total unilateral open interest is 101044, the total long positions of the top 20 members are 45551, the total short positions of the top 20 members are 47907, and the net long position is - 2356 [1]. Latest Spot Freight Rates - European Routes - Weekly spot index: SCFIS is 1379.07 points, down 3.5%; SCFI is $1200/TEU, down 4.8% [1]. - Daily spot freight rates: TCI(20GP) is $1340/TEU, down 1.6%; TCI(40GP) is $2112/FEU, down 3.3% [1]. - The basis difference was 90.87 points on the previous trading day, up 11.3 points from the day before [1]. Spot Market Data - Capacity: The capacity deployment on the Asia - Europe route is 516078 TEU, a decrease of 1 TEU. The idle capacity ratio is 1.6%, with 1.0% for container ships over 17000 TEU, 0.4% for 12000 - 16999 TEU container ships, and 1.2% for 8000 - 11999 TEU container ships [4]. - Average speed: The average speed of container ships is 13.88 knots, 15.55 knots for container ships over 17000 TEU, and 15.01 knots for 12000 - 16999 TEU container ships [4]. - Capacity in port: Rotterdam has 21.96 million TEU, Hamburg has 9.46 million TEU, and Singapore has 35.53 million TEU [4]. - Bypass situation: The number of ships passing through the Gulf of Aden is 11, the north - bound traffic volume of the Suez Canal is 1, and the south - bound traffic volume is 2 [4]. - Time charter rates for 6 - 12 months: $105000 per day for 9000 TEU, $72000 per day for 6500 TEU, and $33750 per day for 2500 TEU [4].

| | | | | | | 研究所可以解放之IV | | | 2025/5/8 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 合约 | | 昨日收盘价 | 涨跌(%) | 基差 | 昨日成交量 | 昨日持仓量 | | 持仓变动 | | | EC2506 | | 1288.2 | -0.87 | 90.9 | 33882 | | 39510 | 3642 | | | EC2508 | | 1559.6 | 3.29 | - 180.5 | 39237 | | 36138 | 3696 | | | EC2510 | | 1287.9 | 1.81 | 91.2 | 11837 | | 17426 | 1332 | | | EC2512 | | 1460.7 | 0.74 | -81.6 | 1893 | | 4091 | 101 | | | EC2602 | | 1291.4 | 0.19 | 87.7 | 982 | | 2735 | 132 | | 期货 | EC2604 | | 1182.6 | -3.70 | 196 ...

FICC日报 | 2025-05-08 现货报价仍然相对偏弱，关注中美关税周末会谈情况 市场分析 线上报价方面。 Gemini Cooperation：马士基20周价格974/1647，21周报价885/1480；HPL 5月船期报价1100/1700，6月份船期报价 1800/3000。 MSC+Premier Alliance：MSC 5月上半月船期报价1160/1940，5月下半月船期报价1130/1890；ONE 5月船期报价 1661/1637；HMM 5月上半月船期报价1067/1734。YML 线下5月船期报价1000/1600。 Ocean Alliance：COSCO 5月上半月船期报价2175/3625；CMA 5月份船期报价1210/1995，6月份船期报价1710/2995； EMC 5月份船期报价1205/1960；OOCL 5月船期报价1125/1650。 地缘端：也门胡塞官员：停火协议未包括与美国官员的任何直接会谈，阿曼斡旋的美国-胡塞停火协议旨在停止对 美国船只的袭击。 5月份运力逐步上修，5月份已经有较多美线船舶调往欧线。5月份运力逐步上修，投资者需关注，WEEK20/21/ ...

FICC日报 | 2025-05-07 市场分析 线上报价方面。 Gemini Cooperation：马士基20周价格968/1635,21周报价870/1450；HPL 5月船期报价1200/1900，6月份船期报价 1800/3000。 MSC+Premier Alliance，MSC 5月上半月船期报价1160/1940；ONE 5月船期报价1661/1637；HMM 5月上半月船期 报价1067/1734。YML 线下5月22日前船期报价1000/1600。 Ocean Alliance，COSCO 5月上半月船期报价2175/3625；CMA 5月份船期报价1210/1995，6月份船期报价1710/2995； EMC 5月份船期报价1255/2060；OOCL 5月船期报价1150/1700。 地缘端：在遭到以色列的大规模空袭后，也门胡塞武装"最高政治委员会"主席迈赫迪·穆沙特当地时间6日晚间表示， 无论付出什么样的代价，都不会放弃对加沙地带的支持。胡塞武装还表示，反击将会是毁灭性的、痛苦的，并将 超出美国和以色列的承受范围，任何侵略行为都不能阻止其对巴勒斯坦的支持。 5月份运力逐步上修，5月份 ...

集运指数（欧线）主力合约日内涨超5.00%，现报1377.9点。 ...

公司报告 | 季报点评 中远海控（601919） 证券研究报告 考虑到运价表现好于预期，船公司积极调整运力应对运量下滑，上调 2025-2026 年归母净利润预测至 277、203 亿元（原预测 209、137 亿 元），引入 2027 年预测归母净利润 137 亿元，维持"买入"评级。 Q1 业绩高增长，观察加关税影响 运价上涨推动 Q1 业绩高增长 2025Q1，中远海控营业收入 580 亿元，同比增长 20%；归母净利润 117 亿元，同比增长 73%。其中，集装箱航运业务收入 559 亿元，同比增长 20%；净利润 118 亿元，同比增长 87%，是公司业绩增长的主要驱动力。 集运业务业绩增长，主要来自运价上涨：2025Q1 集装箱航运业务的货运 量为 648 万 TEU，同比增长 7.5%；国际航线单箱收入 1311 美元，同 比上涨 12%，同期中国出口集装箱运价综合指数 CCFI 同比上涨 5%。但 是 4 月 CCFI 同比下跌 7%，中美加关税可能抑制货运需求、拖累运价。 集运供需紊乱，静观影响 美国引发的加关税已经导致跨太平洋航线货运量大幅减少，其他航线也有 影响。为了应对需求下滑，船公司 ...

证券研究报告 交通运输 | 航运港口 非金融|公司点评报告 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 04 月 30 日 | 基本数据 | | | | 年 | 04 | | 日 | 月 30 | 2025 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 收盘价（元） | | | | | | | | | | 5.85 | | 一 年 内 / 低 | 最 | 高 | 最 | | | 9.95/5.74 | | | | | | （元） | | | | | | | | | | | | 总市值（百万元） | | | | | | 47,641.27 | | | | | | 流通市值（百万元） | | | | | | 47,641.27 | | | | | | 总股本（百万股） | | | | | | 8,143.81 | | | | | | 资产负债率（%） | | | | | | 42.76 | | | | | | 每股净资产（元/股） | | | | | | | | | | 4.99 | | 资料来源：聚源数据 | | ...