Welcome to our special preview of Invest 2025, a global streaming event packed full of conversations with CEOs and leaders to help you, the investor. Today's the big day. Stay locked into Yahoo Finance for a day of unparalleled insight starting right in London right now on the pre-show.Beyond the big headline that the longest ever government shutdown in US history is now over, we'll also be hearing from one of the world's most respected economists on what the future of markets could look like. And our execu ...

Labor Market Analysis - The government shutdown in October has created uncertainty regarding the availability and quality of key economic data, specifically inflation and employment figures [1][2] - November employment data collection is delayed and may be of questionable quality due to the Thanksgiving holiday, impacting market understanding of the economy's health [3][4] - Alternative indicators suggest the labor market is holding up, with Brailio Labs showing an increase in total non-farm payrolls and jobless claims remaining low [5][6] - The economy is likely still performing adequately, but a clearer picture may take another month to emerge due to data collection disruptions [6] - Economists are widening their data sources due to the unavailability of regular data from the BLS, CPI, and non-farm payrolls [9] Economic Risks and Federal Reserve Implications - The consensus among economists leans towards labor weakness as a greater risk than higher inflation in the coming months [9] - Job growth slowdown in the past 6 months may be attributed to slowing immigration, impacting labor supply rather than labor demand [10][11] - The Federal Reserve published a paper expecting job growth over the next 12 months to be 30,000, a significant decline due to slowing immigration [12] - The Federal Reserve's ability to address the situation is limited if the issue is labor supply, as opposed to labor demand [13]

Welcome to Yahoo Finance Invest. The global economy is rapidly evolving from shifting monetary policy to inflation pressures and structural changes thanks to technology. In the backdrop, record setting markets that are sparking fears of a correction or even worse.Joining me now is Muhammad Alan, Alian's chief economic adviser. Muhammad, a real treat to have you here at Invest. Thank you for always making time for us.Let's start out of the block here on cockroaches. Uh there's a lot of talk on Wall Street ri ...

Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic will retire when his current five-year term expires at the end of next February https://t.co/ElKmTgWIdJ ...

Federal Reserve Governor Stephan Miran joins 'Squawk on the Street' to discuss whether the government shutdown impacts macro outlooks, how he's thinking about the economy, and much more. ...

Market Trends & Dynamics - The NASDAQ is up 2%, with Alphabet up almost 35%, Nvidia up almost 4%, and AMD up 6% [1] - The market is experiencing a rebound after the worst week since April [1] - Seasonality is generally favorable for market performance towards the end of the year [6] - AI continues to be a significant driver for the market [5][16] Economic Factors & Fed Policy - The potential government shutdown and its impact on lower-income consumers are being considered [2] - Consumer weakness is a concern, but its short-term impact may be limited [7][8] - The market is closely watching the Federal Reserve's potential rate cuts, with opinions divided on whether a cut is necessary or beneficial [9][10][13] - Inflation remains a concern, influencing the Fed's decisions [10] AI & Technological Impact - Capital expenditure (capex) in big tech firms is driving economic strength [12] - Companies are starting to see early benefits from AI in areas like marketing, customer interactions, and product design [19][20] - The widespread impact of AI on enterprise efficiency is expected to take several years [21] - Significant investment, approximately $400 billion annually, is being made in AI [11][22]

Market Sentiment & Fed Policy - Market interprets potential talks in DC as positive news, anticipating a resolution to the shutdown [1] - Closing out short positions suggests anticipation of positive news over the weekend [2][3] - Market vulnerability stems from its reliance on growth and interaction with the Federal Reserve (Fed) [3] - Market pullback occurred after the Fed meeting, indicating a need for more Fed support [3][4] - Unsettled market conditions are attributed to concerns about the Fed's actions rather than the durability of AI or valuation questions [4] Economic Factors & Sector Performance - The economy is described as K-shaped, with the bottom half (real estate, restaurants, consumer cyclicals) struggling and the top half (AI, wealthy individuals) thriving [4] - Stimulus aimed at the bottom half of the K-shaped economy could potentially fuel bubble-like behavior in the top half, particularly in AI [4] - Consumer cyclical stocks traded poorly following the early September jobs report [3] - Challenger data raises concerns, potentially indicating that the Fed is likely to continue cutting rates, possibly as early as December [6] AI Market - The AI basket tracked is up 20% since early September, suggesting a need for a break or correction [5] - Strong earnings results were recently insufficient to sustain the AI group's momentum [5] - The speaker does not believe that we are currently in an AI bubble [4] Future Outlook - Expectation that the Fed will cut rates, leading to an upward drift for the markets [7] - Bullish outlook with a rating of 3 [7]

Take a much closer look at the alternative data sources, the private data sources, the alternative data that I mentioning there. We've had a lot of success scraping the wage inflation data or the wage posting data and extracting from it wage inflation measures. And one of the most important stories that I think everyone is aware of it when you came out of Covid, it was the bottom and that led the wage gains and that shifted.And we've been in a period where, you know, you guys have talked about it, the K-sha ...

Market Overview - The four major averages have returned to negative territory after a brief bounce, with technology stocks lagging behind as high-flying stocks experience a pullback [1] - There is concern that a sentiment shift away from tech could drag down the entire market, although underperforming stocks may not decline as significantly [2] Investment Strategy - A strategy suggested is to consider buying the equal-weighted S&P 500, as the current index is heavily concentrated in a few high-performing stocks, specifically the MAG 7, which constitutes 25-30% of the index [4] - There are still companies trading at reasonable multiples that offer safety and good dividends, indicating a cautious approach is advisable [6] Earnings Insights - Upcoming earnings reports are expected to provide clarity on the long-term strength of the consumer and the economy, making it a significant day for earnings [3][9] - Companies like DraftKings, Airbnb, and others are anticipated to reveal insights into consumer spending patterns, which are crucial for understanding economic health [8][9] Federal Reserve Messaging - The Federal Reserve's recent communications indicate a focus on adjusting rates to find the right level rather than easing or stimulating the economy [7][8] - The market's reaction to the Fed's messaging has been negative, reflecting uncertainty about future rate adjustments [7]

Group 1 - The term "420" has evolved over decades, now associated with marijuana culture and notable figures like Tesla CEO Elon Musk, who referenced it in a tweet about taking Tesla private at $420 [2] - The current trading price of Tesla (TSLA) is around $450 per share, indicating a significant market valuation [2] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury rate is highlighted as a critical indicator for investors, particularly in relation to stock market performance [3][5] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve's influence on interest rates is often misunderstood; it primarily sets overnight borrowing rates, while the bond market largely determines the 10-year Treasury rate [4] - The 10-year Treasury rate is crucial for stock traders, as fluctuations can impact stock prices significantly [5][7] - High levels of U.S. debt may lead to non-U.S. investors selling their 10-year bond holdings, potentially resulting in higher yields and affecting domestic investors [6]