Copper steadied as traders parsed weakening US employment data that may persuade the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates this year more than previously expected https://t.co/Pqnw57c54M ...

Gold traded near Friday’s record high, bolstered by an unexpectedly weak US employment report that saw wagers increase on the Fed cutting interest rates https://t.co/5dQ9Y877KK ...

Government Shutdown & Political Landscape - 存在政府关门的严重可能性，因为众议院和参议院的进度严重落后，且白宫似乎不重视避免关门[3] - 白宫取消 50 亿美元的外援，激怒了立法者，这表明他们并不担心达成协议[4] - 经济影响通常不显著，通常只是将一些经济活动推迟到政府重新启动后，通常持续一周左右[6] - 民主党人认为在政治上必须对特朗普总统表现出强烈的抵抗，他们可能会利用这次机会[10] - 特朗普总统希望表明他对债务和赤字负责，而民主党人则不然，这有助于他在政治和实质上获益[11] - 市场已经习惯了政府关门，认为这是一种政治歌舞伎，但这次可能会更加重要，因为市场对债务和赤字已经感到不安[14][15] Tariffs & Trade - 特朗普政府可能会通过其他方式复制关税的影响，因为总统 40 年来一直主张征收关税，并且认为关税是个好主意[17][18] - 美国与中国达成协议的可能性大大降低，因为中国不愿帮助美国解决乌克兰和中东的冲突，也不愿与美国达成贸易协议[21][23] Economic Outlook & Monetary Policy - 9 月份降息的可能性接近 90%[26] - 最近三个月，就业增长速度约为每月 35,000 个，预计可能略有回升至 50,000 左右，但仍然是一个相当疲软的数字[28] - 关税和政策不确定性导致公司暂停扩张计划并减少招聘[32] - 估计约有 30% 到 40% 的关税转嫁给了消费者，其余成本由美国公司承担[34] - 即使关税的影响是一个缓慢而漫长的过程，但总体而言，关税的影响将是暂时的，因为物价水平会出现一次性上涨，之后通货膨胀应该会再次缓和[38] - 预计美联储将在 9 月份降息，今年可能在 12 月份再次降息，然后观望明年这些影响的发挥情况[40] - 特朗普政府正试图将美联储的组成转变为更加鸽派的方向，这可能意味着利率会略低于其他情况[42][43][44] Consumer Spending & Retail - 消费者情绪相对疲软，但消费者仍在消费，只是更加谨慎[50][51] - 只有约 22% 的关税转嫁给了消费者[53] - 零售额的增长在一定程度上是由消费者对未来事件的反应所驱动的，因为他们担心未来价格上涨，从而提前消费[55] - 高收入家庭占总家庭支出的比例越来越大，现在超过 50%，他们受到的影响较小，并且正在推动零售经济中的更多支出[56]

Economic data is telling the Fed to cut interest rates by 50 basis points or more in September. ...

Market Analysis & Economic Outlook - ARK Invest anticipates a productivity-driven boom that should reverse the duration of unemployment [1] - The current unemployment duration is higher than its peak in cycles before 2008-09, suggesting a need for lower interest rates [1] - ARK Invest sees parallels between today's market and the '90s, characterized by a weak labor market but emerging tech cycle [1] Technological Innovation & Growth - AI and energy innovation are identified as potential drivers for the next US expansion, similar to how the internet sparked growth in the '90s [1]

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Investment Rating - The report indicates a bullish outlook on gold and suggests long positions in gold, bonds, and sectors that can outpace China, while recommending short positions in sectors that may face inflationary pressures [2][19][20]. Core Insights - The report highlights the highest bond yields in decades, with UK long bond yields at 5.6%, France at 4.4%, Japan at 3.2%, and the US testing 5%, indicating a shift in financial conditions and potential implications for risk assets [2][19]. - It draws parallels to the Nixon era, suggesting that political pressures may lead to easing financial conditions, which could create a pre-election boom and affect market dynamics [4][20]. - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring payroll data and Treasury yields as indicators for risk asset performance, with a strong payroll report and falling yields being the most bullish scenario [3][19]. Summary by Sections Market Flows - Weekly flows show significant inflows into cash ($51.8 billion), bonds ($22.2 billion), and stocks ($17.6 billion), with gold also seeing inflows of $6.5 billion [13][18]. - BofA private clients have a significant allocation in equities (64.1%) and are extending duration in their bond holdings [15][57]. Economic Indicators - The report notes a potential weakening in US economic data, with construction spending down 2.8% year-over-year, which may influence Federal Reserve policy [19][26]. - It discusses the implications of rising bond yields and the stability of bank stocks, suggesting that the next significant move in bond yields is likely to be downward [19][20]. Historical Context - The report references the 1970s as a historical analog for current market conditions, highlighting the volatility and shifts in leadership among asset classes during that period [20][28]. - It suggests that investors should focus on sectors that can thrive in a high-inflation environment, drawing lessons from past market behaviors [20][28]. Sector Performance - The report indicates that small-cap and value stocks outperformed during the 1970s, suggesting a potential similar trend could emerge in the current environment [20][28]. - It highlights the performance of the "Magnificent 7" stocks, drawing comparisons to the "Nifty Fifty" of the past, indicating a potential for similar market dynamics [20][36].

💥BREAKING:RATE CUT ODDS FOR SEPTEMBER HIT 99%! 🚀 https://t.co/p6IPUjU3jo ...

How far and how fast will Fed officials move to keep cutting rates after September? https://t.co/B3riZfdQsl ...

Hey, I'm Kramer. Welcome to Mad Money. Welcome to Cra America.I'll be with my friends. I'm just trying to make a little bit of money. My job is not just to entertain you, but to educate and teach you.So call me at 1800743 CBC. Tweet me at Jim Kramer. On Wall Street, we've all been conditioned to believe that good news is bad news and vice versa.Then if the economy's too strong, we can expect the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates bad for growth and if economy is weak enough, the Fed will cut rates. G ...