由广西交通投资集团投资建设的广西柳梧铁路盘龙柳江特大桥的钢箱梁吊装、斜拉索张拉等关键工序加 快推进。盘龙柳江特大桥是柳梧铁路的控制性工程之一，全长三千七百多米。图为近日拍摄的该项目施 工现场。 黎寒池 摄（人民视觉） 近来，全国多地发布投资进展数据，一批重大项目加快落地实施，设备购置投资增长持续提速，投 资领域呈现越来越多新亮点。专家表示，今年以来，各地区各部门充分发挥政府投资的带动放大作用， 加力扩围实施"两新"工作，更大力度支持"两重"建设，聚焦关键领域和薄弱环节，积极扩大有效投资， 加快推动传统产业转型升级，培育发展新动能，取得了明显成效。 大项目带动作用增强 进入5月，多地重大项目建设迎来新进展。 在内蒙古自治区鄂尔多斯市达拉特经济开发区，荣信化工年产80万吨烯烃项目正加紧建设，目前已 顺利完成40万吨/年聚丙烯装置污水收集池墙体混凝土浇筑，较计划时间明显提前。据介绍，该项目总 投资98.3亿元，投产后每年新增产值近67亿元。内蒙古自治区发展改革委副主任何杰表示，目前，已谋 划储备2025年计划实施政府投资5000万元、企业投资亿元以上重大项目3352个，总投资3.6万亿元，年 度计划建设投资达到万亿 ...

宏观经济 | 证券研究报告 — 总量点评 2025 年 5 月 6 日 4 月 PMI 数据点评 外部环境对制造企业生产意愿有所影响 外部环境对制造企业生产意愿有所影响。4 月高技术制造业、设备制造业海 外需求下滑较为明显。4 月建筑业生产经营延续活跃。部分原材料加工业及 纺织工业景气度处于扩张区间。 4 月制造业产、需表现均有回落。2025 年 4 月，制造业 PMI 指数为 49.0%， 环比（3 月，下同）下降 1.5 个百分点；制造企业景气度跌落至收缩区间。 多个重要细分项环比有所回落，4 月新订单指数 49.2%，环比下滑 2.6 个 百分点，其中，新出口订单指数环比明显下滑 4.3 个百分点，实现 44.7%， 为 2023 年 1 月以来最低水平。4 月生产指数实现 49.8%，环比下滑 2.8 个百分点；原材料库存指数为 47.0%，环比回落 0.2 个百分点；产成品库 存指数为 47.3%，环比下滑 0.7 个百分点；从业人员指数为 47.9%，环比 继续下滑 0.3 个百分点；供货商配送时间指数为 50.2%，环比下滑 0.1 个 百分点。企业预期方面，制造业生产经营活动预期指数实现 52 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the strong growth in China's passenger car market, particularly in the first quarter of 2025, driven by favorable policies and regional demand variations, with a notable increase in retail sales and a shift towards electric vehicles [2][3][4]. Group 1: Passenger Car Market Trends - In January to March 2025, the national passenger car market retail sales grew by 6% year-on-year, with significant growth observed in February and March [2][3]. - February saw retail sales of 1.385 million units, a 25% increase year-on-year, while March recorded 1.94 million units, a 15% increase year-on-year and a 40% month-on-month growth, marking a historical high for March [3][4]. - Cumulatively, retail sales reached 5.13 million units in the first quarter of 2025, reflecting a 6% year-on-year increase [4]. Group 2: Regional Market Analysis - The article identifies a new growth pattern in the car market, characterized by stronger performance in northern regions compared to southern regions, with Northeast and Northwest markets showing significant growth [5][6]. - In March 2025, the Northeast and Northwest regions exhibited robust growth, while the Central and Southern regions lagged behind, indicating a recovery in the Eastern markets post-Spring Festival [5][6][7]. - The Northeast region maintained a high market share of 5.9% in early 2025, while the Central Yellow River region showed a declining trend from 9.2% in 2019 to 8.4% in 2024 [6][9]. Group 3: Market Structure Changes - The article discusses the structural changes in the passenger car market, with a notable increase in the share of A00 and A0 class electric vehicles, particularly in the Northeast and Northwest regions [10][14]. - The demand for SUVs is strong in the Central and Western regions due to geographical factors, while the Eastern regions show a preference for lower-end electric vehicles [11][12]. - The article emphasizes the impact of government subsidies on the growth of economic electric vehicles, which have become a significant part of the market, especially in regions benefiting from the "two new" policies [14]. Group 4: New Energy Vehicle Market - The new energy vehicle market is experiencing strong growth, with pure electric and plug-in hybrid vehicles showing significant increases in market share [12][13]. - In regions like Hainan and Tianjin, the share of new energy vehicles has reached around 60%, indicating a robust growth trend [13]. - The article notes that traditional fuel vehicles still dominate in the Central and Western regions, where their share remains around 60%, while Eastern regions have surpassed 50% for new energy vehicles [12][13].

核心观 点 ： 2025Q1 总量业绩增速回升转正，科技与部分顺周期业绩占优，新兴科技与两重两新 是最清晰的景气线索。成长板块资本开支提速，科技与周期经营现金流修复明显 。 摘要 ▶ 总量增速回升转正，科技成长业绩占优。 全 A 非金融石油石化（全 A 两非）归母净利润 增速在 2024Q4 继续探底，但在后续的 2025Q1 转正，控费带动净利率回升是一季度盈利增速回升的主要因 素，但周转率仍有下行压力。结构上，一季度景气线索清晰，具备新兴产业趋势的 AI 硬件业绩增速居 前，顺经济周期链条中"两重两新"落地扩容带动了汽车 / 家电 / 工程机械的业绩增长，供给受限的有色 / 化工增速居前。此外，非银受益资本市场活跃，业绩增速也改善明显。 ▶ 总量增速改善，成长与中小盘修复明显。 1 ）盈利增速： 2024 年全 A 两非营收同比 -0.8% ，净利 润同比 -14.0% 。利润表拆分看，毛利率走弱与费用率上升共同拖累净利率。但 2025Q1 全 A 两非净 利润同比 +4.7% ，较 2024 全年明显改善，主要因为费用率的大幅下行与毛利率止跌企稳带动的净利 率回升。一季度各板块增速分化明显，创业板大幅修 ...

Core Insights - The "Two New" policy has significantly boosted investment in equipment and consumer goods, leading to a 19% year-on-year increase in equipment and tool purchases in Q1, which in turn supported a 4.6% growth in retail sales of consumer goods [1][2]. Group 1: Consumer Impact - In Q1, the "Two New" policy led to substantial growth in retail sales across various consumer categories, with telecommunications equipment, home appliances, and furniture seeing year-on-year increases of 26.9%, 19.3%, and 18.1% respectively [2]. - The total sales driven by the "Two New" initiatives exceeded 720 billion yuan, with significant contributions from the replacement of old vehicles and appliances [2]. Group 2: Investment Growth - Equipment and tool purchase investment rose by 19% in Q1, outpacing overall investment growth by 14.8 percentage points, indicating strong momentum in the manufacturing and equipment sectors [3]. - Investment in consumer goods manufacturing, equipment manufacturing, and technological upgrades showed growth rates of 13.5%, 8.9%, and 7.2% respectively, all exceeding overall investment growth [3]. Group 3: Industry Benefits - The "Two New" policy has positively impacted related industries, with manufacturing value added in general and specialized equipment, automobiles, and smart consumer devices increasing by 9.4%, 4.1%, 11.8%, and 11.4% respectively [4]. - The recycling of waste electrical and electronic products saw a significant increase, with a 70% rise in collection volumes, reflecting enhanced recycling efforts [4]. Group 4: Future Potential - The potential for expanding domestic demand is substantial, with estimates suggesting that equipment replacement needs could exceed 5 trillion yuan annually as urbanization progresses [7]. - The government plans to continue supporting the "Two New" policy with additional funding, including an allocation of 81 billion yuan in special bonds to further stimulate consumer goods replacement [6][8].

中共中央政治局4月25日召开会议，分析研究当前经济形势和经济工作。会议要求，加大资金支持力 度，扩围提质实施"两新"政策，加力实施"两重"建设。 推动大规模设备更新和消费品以旧换新，既利投资又促消费。 2024年2月召开的中央财经委员会第四次会议提出，要推动各类生产设备、服务设备更新和技术改造， 鼓励汽车、家电等传统消费品以旧换新，推动耐用消费品以旧换新。 "两新"政策加力扩围释放潜在消费需求 "中国14亿多人口的超大规模市场，通过多层次需求释放与创新协同，可以构建独特的消费扩张动 力。"上海财经大学讲席教授、中国消费经济学会副会长汪伟表示，要超越传统的需求刺激思维，通过 系统性政策框架提振消费信心、修复经济循环流动性。从长期来看，应明确推动经济系统从"重生产轻 消费"向"重消费与人的发展"转型，构建以人的全面发展、人与自然和谐共生为导向的新型发展模式。 配套服务协同发力创新模式驱动升级 "两新"政策持续落地见效，加大资金支持力度是关键一环。《金融时报》记者注意到，目前，已有电商 平台在资金端持续加力，为以旧换新上游企业提供资金周转支持。例如，京东日前推出国补商家"百亿 计划"，通过专项提额和息费补贴，满足从 ...

Market Performance - Government bond futures closed higher across the board, with the 30-year main contract rising by 0.69% to 120.980, the 10-year main contract up by 0.23% to 109.120, the 5-year main contract increasing by 0.13% to 106.070, and the 2-year main contract slightly up by 0.01% to 102.332 [1] - The yields on major interbank bonds generally declined, with the 10-year government bond "24附息国债 11" yield down by 2.10 basis points to 1.6200%, and the 3-year government bond "25附息国债 05" yield down by 1.75 basis points to 1.4950% [1] Funding Conditions - The central bank announced a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 340.5 billion yuan at a fixed rate of 1.50%, with a net injection of 120 billion yuan for the day [2] - Overnight and 7-day pledged repo rates showed mixed movements, with the former declining by over 5 basis points and the latter rising by over 3 basis points due to month-end factors [2] Policy Developments - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) has issued a notice to allocate an additional 81 billion yuan in special long-term bonds to support the consumption upgrade policy [3] - The NDRC aims to enhance coordination and expedite the disbursement of funds to alleviate the financial burden on enterprises and ensure that benefits reach consumers directly [3] Operational Recommendations - Economic indicators for April, including credit and price data, are expected to face pressure, with a focus on domestic demand to offset external demand [4] - The government is likely to increase the issuance of existing bond balances, with May anticipated to be a peak for government bond supply in Q2 [4] Market Outlook - The market's main logic may shift towards fundamentals and policy, with overall volatility expected [5] - The 10-year government bond yield is projected to fluctuate between 1.55% and 1.75%, with potential for bond futures to remain strong [5] - Investors are advised to consider buying on dips, especially in light of the upcoming PMI index release, which is expected to be in the range of 48% to 50.5% [5]

辰安科技 20250429 摘要 • 辰安科技聚焦城市安全、应急管理和装备与科技消防三大业务板块，受益 于政策支持和市场需求，在安徽、北京、宁夏、河北等地落地多个大型项 目。 • 公司通过加强应收账款管理，经营活动产生的现金流净额显著提升，同比 增长超过 70%，财务状况明显改善，为全年发展奠定基础。 • 2025 年一季度，公司营收同比增长 55%以上，归母净利润减亏超过 40%，经营性现金流净额同比增长 140%，财务数据表现良好。 • 受益于积极的财政政策，特别是城市地下管网更新改造及智慧化改造等项 目，公司牵头设计和申报方案，预计签约进度集中在第三、第四季度。 • 科达利安空天一体化智能灭火平台，包括无人机和四足机器狗等特种消防 装备，已在多地申报国债用于新型设备应用范畴，协同作战能力显著。 • 公司联合中国电信发布星辰大模型，专注于公共安全领域，并已嵌入软件 系统和产品，部署在应急管理部及多个省厅项目，AI 应用加速落地。 • 受益于两新一重特别国债政策，公司作为应急安全龙头企业订单增长明显， 协同灭火无人机和机器狗获得相关部门表扬，市场表现显现拐点迹象。 Q&A 请介绍长阳科技 2024 年的年报 ...

值得关注的是，"两重"领域超长期特别国债支持项目建设提速，基础设施投资增速加快。一季度，基础设施投资同比增长 5.8%，增速比前2个月加快0.2个百分点。"两新"持续扩围实施，大规模设备更新、消费品以旧换新政策推动相关物流需求持续 向好，一季度工业物流领域的通用设备、专用设备制造相关物流需求同比分别增长9.4%、4.1%；一季度商贸物流领域的单位通 讯器材类、家用电器和音像器材类、家具类商品零售相关物流需求增长均在20%左右，3月份汽车零售相关物流需求由前2个月 下降转为增长5.5%。 孟圆表示，政策整体效能持续显现。以"两重""两新"为代表的增量政策加力扩围，支持力度更大、范围更广。 一季度，物流业总收入3.3万亿元，同比增长5.0%，增速比前2个月提高0.2个百分点，比上年全年提高0.1个百分点。3月 份，物流业景气中的业务总量指数为51.5%，环比回升2.2个百分点。 本报记者 孟珂 4月29日，中国物流与采购联合会发布数据显示，2025年一季度，全国社会物流总额91.0万亿元，同比增长5.7%，且增速 持续快于同期GDP水平，显示社会物流需求韧性持续增强、开局运行稳定向好。 中国物流信息中心物流统计处 ...

对话资深财政专家：如何解读一季度政治局会议？ 20250427 摘要 • 2025 年一季度中国 GDP 同比增长 4.59%，实现"开门红"，但财政收 入疲软，需关注财政支出问题。中美贸易战对出口造成冲击，政府正积极 应对，通过扩大内需替代受阻外贸，稳定经济基本面。 • 政府从消费端、供给端和改革端多管齐下，提振消费服务，帮扶困难企业， 推动关键技术攻关和产业升级，深化改革建设统一大市场，旨在应对不确 定性，促进经济高质量发展。 • 中央政治局强调实施积极有为的宏观政策，加快地方专项债券和超长期国 债发行使用，并兜牢基层"三保"底线，防范风险，确保资金流与工程进 度相适应，提振消费。 • 今年将发行 1.3 万亿超长期特别国债，其中 5,000 亿用于重大项目建设、 设备更新和以旧换新，财政增量主要来自中央政府国债，以扩大重大工程 建设和设备更新投资，同时促进消费品以旧换新。 • 财政政策关注精准性，提高失业保险基金的稳岗返还比例，健全分层分类 的社会救助体系，扩大监控范围，为低收入和特困人群提供更全面保障， 应对贸易战冲击。 Q&A 如何解读 2025 年一季度政治局会议的主要内容及其对经济形势的判断？ ...